Kim Jong Il dies

[Walsingham]

But as Tigs pointed out, NK is a basket case. With the same money you'd need to make it part way serviceable you could turn around an existing domestic region. This is a serious thing for the Russians as I understand it. A lot of recent unhappiness is down to weak economic growth.

[Calax]

True, but if they controlled the GDP of another country it'd be much easier to manipulate their economy to start working better. Particularly if they manage to create an industry that mirrors the SK export stuff. If it works and they manage to get something like Hyundai going they'd probably have a pretty good chance of turning things around.

[Tigranes]

China annexing NK is a realistic possibility; or rather, China *considering* it and that consideration affecting international relations, is. Actually going ahead with it and succeeding is less likely.

 

As for your last post Calax, I may not be understanding correctly, but it makes no sense to me at present. Firstly, how exactly would Russia/China 'control' another country's GDP, short of a colony-like arrangement? That is actually even less likely than annexation. Secondly, North Korea isn't just South Korea plus dictator regime. SK's growth rate after the 50's was insane in every sense of the word; you had about 30-40 years of urbanization, democratization, massive road and infrastructure systems all over the country, a transition from cheap manufacturing to complex manufacturing to services and high tech industries, millions of overseas immigrants learning new languages and skills, and more besides. Hell, if you put SK back to the 50's condition now and asked them to do it again, it wouldn't happen.

 

The only situation in which any region could be easily and quickly exploited for profit by another region is when there is (1) abundant natural resources, which the Korean peninsula has never had, (2) existing infrastructure, and obviously the NK infrastructure's not much use for anything these days, or (3) a huge population - NK has +20 million, but given the level of malnutrition, education levels, etc. their productivity will be haphazard until they acclimatize. SK is one of the biggest economies in the world - NK is a fatally mismanaged dump. I can see no way in which Russia would want to touch it at all, especially with China the better 'claimant'; China could try and annex NK, but any other arrangement is unlikely.

[Calax]

Well, if china does come in and start colonization/annexation, they might try to re-hab the population and then restructure the society. SK can't re-start themselves from the ground up, but NK is so beaten down that it'd probably be pretty easy to structure them into a national workforce for some industry.

 

Personally if I were China I'd consider it a long term investment and go about building up the population and convering the place into a manufacturing center using the raw resources from china or other nations. In 20 years everything "low tech" could read "Made in North Korea" while high tech would be "Made in China".

 

I don't see any unification going on however. For the same reasons that the Japanese never would "re-unite" with China.

[Rostere]

For the same reasons that the Japanese never would "re-unite" with China.

wat

[Tigranes]

Uh... yeah, that's officially put me at a loss.

[Calax]

In the days of Yore, Japan and China were one nation. They split up and did dastardly things to each other, partly due to the nature of their divorce.

 

Mongols probably didn't help matters either

[Tigranes]

Um... that never happened, at any point in history.

 

The Mongols never occupied Japan, either.

[Meshugger]

I think that he meant the korean peninsula. Both the chinese, mongols and the japanese have been on that piece of land through history.

Edited December 23, 2011 by Meshugger

[Calax]

They never occupied, but they were rather brutal in the two invasions that they tried to pull off. Also the Korean peninsula has been invaded, as Mesh mentioned, quite a few times. The invasion of the peninsula under the Toyotomi left a LOT of bad blood, particularly the destruction of farmlands. It took the chinese to bail out the Koreans in that case.

 

But even closer to now, the capture/occupation in WW2 created more bad blood between the Japanese and the Chinese.

[Masterfade]

All these talks of China annexing North Korea make no sense to me at all. Isn't the purpose of North Korea (for China) a buffer zone between Northeastern China and U.S. forces in South Korea? Annexing North Korea would be like tearing down walls of your house because you want more space. It's patently stupid.

 

Besides, I see no reason why any country other than South Korea would want to take over North with its 20 million starving population brainwashed into believing they're the noblest race on earth with purest blood.

[Tigranes]

Calax, I now have no idea what you are trying to say. Which 'unification' between what and what country are you saying is improbable? SK and NK? NK and China? (NK has never really been a formal part of China, either.) Why is Japan even in the discussion? Yes, there's a lot of history of invasions of the Korean peninsula from various powers, but I'm also unsure what you're trying to say from that.

 

Re. Masterfade - it's been useful so far as a buffer zone, but becomes problematic if SK goes ahead and annexes NK, or if NK itself implodes - an annexed region is not as good as a buffer state in this context, but still better than SK gobbling it up. That said, the diplomatic and political maneuvres required to actually pull this off would be so convoluted, we would need to see some serious changes in the NK situation and the China-US power play dynamic, etc. I don't think China annexation will happen - but I don't think it should be dismissed outright.

 

As for the last point, I know that's a joke, but obviously most NKs know that's crapola. They're malnourished, not mentally ill, and increasingly they have some form of contact with the outside world. The underlying point, though, is that for SK, reunification could prove to be a great boon in the long run, if managed right. In the long run it would more than double their population and landmass - they're one of the biggest economies in the world now, so if SK does things right they can really do well with that extra manpower.

 

Edit: I should mention - by far the most frightening prospect is that a rapid disintegration of the Kim Jong Un regime within the next 5 years, followed by Chinese troop deployment into NK to maintain peace and order, followed by much complicated diplomatic haranguing where SK, completely consistent with their previous approaches to multi-party discussions over NK, fail to assert themselves as the most relevant party, and a two-state solution is adopted whereby the Korean War is formally ended, NK & SK are separated, and NK adopts a new, open, pseudo-democratic regime within the Chinese sphere of influence. Perfect for the Chinese; rather crappy for NK; worst possible outcome for SK.

[Walsingham]

Sounds coherent, Tigs. But while I agree that SK could capitalise on more manpower, I think current global economic conditions are too bad to make good use.

[Tigranes]

As time passes, I am more and more convinced that NK is very vulnerable now, and that's worrisome. Here's a good summary of the general factors we have to take into account, though I wouldn't go quite as far as the author.

[Maria Caliban]

There have been plenty of dictators and other leaders who ruled just fine at that age, you know, both ancient and modern history.

 

'Just fine' in the sense that they didn't immediately implode the country, that is.

Augustus Caesar was 23 when he became a dictator and he did alright.

[Walsingham]

Interesting point, although the world was slower and less complex in his day.

[Zoraptor]

Other young Julio-Claudian emperors include Caligula and Nero, mind you.

 

The main factor in Augustus doing so well was that he was personally very competent and the people he surrounded himself with were also very competent (plus he wasn't a total nutcase, unlike little boot and the World's Greatest Artist). Whether the young Mr Kim is so lucky is an open question at this point.

[Gorth]

Other young Julio-Claudian emperors include Caligula and Nero, mind you.

Alexander had conquered the known world at 25. Kim is rather old to be a megalomaniac

[Tigranes]

Augustus proved that he was one of the most gifted individuals in his time in the way he conducted himself just before and after Caesar's death. He could act quickly, decisively and boldly, and in the next moment demurely wait things out when necessary, all with more composure and naturalness than old Julius. Alexander was similarly quite clearly special - not to mention that he had pretty much the best conditions for military conquest handed to him out of any ruler in the history of the ancient Greek world. Kim's problem is he neither has age nor ability, and I wonder how fiercely he wanted to be ruler to begin with. Alexander would have made a kingdom of beggars if born a beggar.

[Orogun01]

Alexander would have made a kingdom of beggars if born a beggar.

Doubt it, speaking from experience beggars have no interest in kingdoms. Also it's a good thing that he has no ambition, I would not want an Augustus or an Alexander at the helm of the NK army.

[Morgoth]

Nothing's gonna change, as it is the army that controls the NK, not some mean looking fat boy.

Edited December 30, 2011 by Morgoth

[HoonDing]

Augustus proved that he was one of the most gifted individuals in his time in the way he conducted himself just before and after Caesar's death. He could act quickly, decisively and boldly, and in the next moment demurely wait things out when necessary, all with more composure and naturalness than old Julius. Alexander was similarly quite clearly special - not to mention that he had pretty much the best conditions for military conquest handed to him out of any ruler in the history of the ancient Greek world. Kim's problem is he neither has age nor ability, and I wonder how fiercely he wanted to be ruler to begin with. Alexander would have made a kingdom of beggars if born a beggar.

Augustus shouldn't be mentioned next to Caesar, let alone Alexander. Caesar conquered Gaul, then crushed the Republic and his main rival. Augustus reign as emperor was impressive, before that he was less than impressive.

 

He never acted, he was a cold calculator who probably never even lifted a gladius in his life. Augustus sat back watching how others won his battles for him and watched how his main rival self-destructed. Then he conveniently took the throne after ensuring everyone who wanted him dead was either bribed, bullied or assassinated. That he later evolved into an old, demure grognard who banished his own wife and daughter is only irony.

Edited December 30, 2011 by virumor

[Volourn]

"He never acted, he was a cold calculator who probably never even lifted a gladius in his life. Augustus sat back watching how others won his battles for him and watched how his main rival self-destructed. Then he conveniently took the throne after ensuring everyone who wanted him dead was either bribed, bullied or assassinated."

 

The way you describe him, you make him sound like a pure genius.

 

L0L 'Bullied'? Ha. That term is so modenrized and is som often used out of context.

[Tigranes]

Depends on what you value more, really. They were two very different people when it came to individual talent. My belief is that Caesar was brilliant at almost everything except being a ruler, at least being a ruler in a Roman state. He knew how to fight, how to be a general, even how to administer a state and make it prosperous, but not how to occupy the position of a state ruler. That was the key difference between the two.

[Tigranes]

Some excellent photos & impressions from civilian visitor to NK in September.