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Erm... has anyone noticed Turkey and Syria?


Walsingham

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I know geography's not your strong suit, but wouldn't they have to annex Belarus or Ukraine first?

Putin beat you by 5 days... >_

 

Russia will probably end up deciding that Crimea is a national security issue and "encourage" Ukraine to join.

“He who joyfully marches to music in rank and file has already earned my contempt. He has been given a large brain by mistake, since for him the spinal cord would surely suffice.” - Albert Einstein
 

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Polish leadership gets killed at Katyn, Berlin and Moscow are the new best friends... what Century is it today?

 

Still waiting for the Lavrov-Westerwelle treaty of non-aggression between Germany and Russia >_<

"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia."

- When he is best, he is a little worse than a man, and when he is worst, he is little better than a beast.

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I know geography's not your strong suit, but wouldn't they have to annex Belarus or Ukraine first?

Kaliningrad Oblast (East Prussia, as was) borders Poland directly, so it would be theoretically possible. Practically of course that is exactly the sort of thing covered by a defensive pact like NATO.

 

we can afford to lose Suffolk more than we can afford to lose our bases in Cyprus.

I know you're exaggerating, but that's... a bit off even as an exaggeration. Losing Suffolk implies enemies a few quick and jaunty hours from downtown London.

 

Russia will probably end up deciding that Crimea is a national security issue and "encourage" Ukraine to join.

There doesn't seem much doubt that Crimea would actually prefer to be part of Russia as I've seen even people antipathetic to Russia admit that (and it was, up until Krushchev decided to do some Stalin style tinkering with the SSR boundaries).

 

Can't say I'd be surprised if Belarus ends up being absorbed by Russia in the long term.

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we can afford to lose Suffolk more than we can afford to lose our bases in Cyprus.

I know you're exaggerating, but that's... a bit off even as an exaggeration. Losing Suffolk implies enemies a few quick and jaunty hours from downtown London.

 

 

Actually this is precisely my point. Modern warfare doesn't move at the speed of tanks any more than WW2 moved at the speed of the horse. With pretty cheap missiles (as it goes) launching at 800 miles, and speeds up to around mach 4, a lot of places are "a few quick and jaunty hours" from London. Warfare - ad by direct inference statehood - has _always_ been about systems not geography. It's just that in the past the nature of system dynamics was synonymous with geography because geography was the prime enabling factor.

"It wasn't lies. It was just... bull****"."

             -Elwood Blues

 

tarna's dead; processing... complete. Disappointed by Universe. RIP Hades/Sand/etc. Here's hoping your next alt has a harp.

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That is basically what he said, isn't it?

 

The base point was OK, but it wasn't really a great way to make it, as by the missile measure neither bases in Cyprus nor Suffolk is worth anything. And if the enemy is in Suffolk they've got a hoard of extra, conventional options to use as well as missiles, and they can, well, base the missiles in...

Edited by Zoraptor
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;) I'm not saying that losing Suffolk wouldn't be inadvisable. I'm smply observing that the complexity of what constitutes our nation is huge and distributed over very disparate geographic regions. The crisis in the eurozone is a pretty mild example of this.

 

Ask yourself where we get our food and energy from, and how long we could exist as a nation if those supplies were interrupted.

"It wasn't lies. It was just... bull****"."

             -Elwood Blues

 

tarna's dead; processing... complete. Disappointed by Universe. RIP Hades/Sand/etc. Here's hoping your next alt has a harp.

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:ermm: I'm not saying that losing Suffolk wouldn't be inadvisable. I'm smply observing that the complexity of what constitutes our nation is huge and distributed over very disparate geographic regions. The crisis in the eurozone is a pretty mild example of this.

 

Ask yourself where we get our food and energy from, and how long we could exist as a nation if those supplies were interrupted.

I'm surprised you're giving up Suffolk before Essex. :x

You're a cheery wee bugger, Nep. Have I ever said that?

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Don't you know that this was a flase flag operation? Iran is a peaceful country and would never sponsor terrorism. :skeptical:

"It wasn't lies. It was just... bull****"."

             -Elwood Blues

 

tarna's dead; processing... complete. Disappointed by Universe. RIP Hades/Sand/etc. Here's hoping your next alt has a harp.

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Don't you know that this was a flase flag operation? Iran is a peaceful country and would never sponsor terrorism. :p

 

Hahaha. I'm curious about the Saudi reaction to it. It would seem to me that in any war with Iran, the West could count on very strong Saudi support.

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Don't you know that this was a flase flag operation? Iran is a peaceful country and would never sponsor terrorism. :p

 

Hahaha. I'm curious about the Saudi reaction to it. It would seem to me that in any war with Iran, the West could count on very strong Saudi support.

 

I have only the vaguest notion of what the Saudis could put in the field, but I think they're probably much MUCH more worried about internal dissent and places like Yemen, than they are about invading Iran.

 

Invading Iran is not terribly likely. Where the **** would the money to do it come from? Half our population appear to be more willing to give the Iranian government credibility than our own. Plus we're overstretched on our existing commitments. Keep in mind that Iran's not Iraq. It's got a lot of mountains, and a HUGE trained irregular force in the Revolutionary guards and Basij. You couldn't do them any significant damage on the cheap, I don't think. *thinks* Well, maybe shoot the crap out of their oil infrastucture. But that would probably just strengthen their hand, domestically.

 

Iran knows this and that's why they're gokking about in this way. Note that Iran lofted a salvo of mortars at Afghanistan today. Not in the major news. But it happened. Just a little "**** you" to show they don't give a rat's ass about indignation over the terr attempt. And to maybe threaten ramping up their efforts in that country.

"It wasn't lies. It was just... bull****"."

             -Elwood Blues

 

tarna's dead; processing... complete. Disappointed by Universe. RIP Hades/Sand/etc. Here's hoping your next alt has a harp.

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I'm still doubtful Iran was behind it at all.

Why has elegance found so little following? Elegance has the disadvantage that hard work is needed to achieve it and a good education to appreciate it. - Edsger Wybe Dijkstra

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Don't you know that this was a flase flag operation? Iran is a peaceful country and would never sponsor terrorism. :p

 

Hahaha. I'm curious about the Saudi reaction to it. It would seem to me that in any war with Iran, the West could count on very strong Saudi support.

 

I have only the vaguest notion of what the Saudis could put in the field, but I think they're probably much MUCH more worried about internal dissent and places like Yemen, than they are about invading Iran.

 

Invading Iran is not terribly likely. Where the **** would the money to do it come from? Half our population appear to be more willing to give the Iranian government credibility than our own. Plus we're overstretched on our existing commitments. Keep in mind that Iran's not Iraq. It's got a lot of mountains, and a HUGE trained irregular force in the Revolutionary guards and Basij. You couldn't do them any significant damage on the cheap, I don't think. *thinks* Well, maybe shoot the crap out of their oil infrastucture. But that would probably just strengthen their hand, domestically.

 

Iran knows this and that's why they're gokking about in this way. Note that Iran lofted a salvo of mortars at Afghanistan today. Not in the major news. But it happened. Just a little "**** you" to show they don't give a rat's ass about indignation over the terr attempt. And to maybe threaten ramping up their efforts in that country.

 

I don't disagree with you. A war with Iran would be highly undesirable. But I don't think Iran would have any significant Arab allies is what I am saying. They'd all be supporting the West.

 

What was that thing that came out of Wikileaks? A bunch of Arab countries were secretly lobbying the US government to increase pressure on Iran and take out Iran's nuclear facilities?

 

http://articles.cnn.com/2010-11-28/us/us.w...-cable?_s=PM:US

 

U.S. diplomatic cables obtained by the website WikiLeaks and published by newspapers in the United States and Europe on Sunday reveal considerable anxiety among the Gulf states about Iran's nuclear program, with the Bahrain's king warning, "The danger of letting it go on is greater than the danger of stopping it."

 

The cables, many marked "Secret," were among several hundred thousand obtained by WikiLeaks and published by newspapers Sunday.

 

They reveal great concern among Arab states about Iran's regional ambitions. One cable describes a meeting between Saudi King Abdullah and White House counterterrorism adviser John Brennan and other U.S. officials in March 2009.

 

According to the cable, the king told the Americans what he had just told the Iranian foreign minister, Manouchehr Mottaki. "You as Persians have no business meddling in Arab matters," the Saudi monarch was quoted as telling Mottaki. "Iran's goal is to cause problems," he told Brennan. "There is no doubt something unstable about them."

 

The king was also highly critical of the Iraqi Prime Minister, Nuri al Maliki. He is reported to have told his American visitors: "I don't trust this man.... he's an Iranian agent." The cable continues: "The King said he had told both (former U.S. President George W.) Bush and former Vice President (****) Cheney: 'How can I meet with someone I don't trust?'"

 

King Abdullah also welcomed the election of President Barack Obama. "Thank God for bringing Obama to the presidency," he is reported as saying, adding that it had created "great hope" in the Muslim world.

 

According to another cable, King Hamadbin Isa al-Khalifa of Bahrain told the commander of U.S. Central Command, Gen. David H. Petraeus, that Iran was the "source of much of the trouble in both Iraq and Afghanistan."

 

The cable, sent in November 2009 by the U.S. ambassador in Bahrain, added that the king had "argued forcefully for taking action to terminate their nuclear program, by whatever means necessary. 'That program must be stopped,' he said.

 

Another cable reveals that in the neighboring United Arab Emirates, Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan told a congressional delegation last February that "if Iran goes nuclear, others in the region will move forward on the same track, and the nuclear nonproliferation treaty will completely break down."

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with Syria and Iran moving into alignment, and Lebanon going completely Iran-tastic. Which is worrying in itself. Iran would reap huge strategic rewards if it could bring Syria onside, both in terms of Iraq and in terms of 'controlling' Hezbollah.

 

Happy days.

Why do you keep saying that, Syria and Iran have been close allies for a long time. Most of the Iranian help for the Hezbollah comes though Syria, and Hezbollah has assassinated Rafic Hariri on Syria's behalf.

"Moral indignation is a standard strategy for endowing the idiot with dignity." Marshall McLuhan

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There has been cooperation, obviously. But until recently Assad has been walking a tightrope. Just enough coperation with everyone (including the Israelis) that it doesn't suit anybody to have him gone. In my opinion, the dynamic has changed recently. he needs partners who don't baulk when he kills a couple of thousand citizens. Iran's a perfect match.

"It wasn't lies. It was just... bull****"."

             -Elwood Blues

 

tarna's dead; processing... complete. Disappointed by Universe. RIP Hades/Sand/etc. Here's hoping your next alt has a harp.

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