whennextgen? speculation and question

[Hurlshort]

Well, I did say Nintendo would probably have a next gen machine coming out soon. I still think Sony and Microsoft are a long ways off.

 

Of course it is almost like Nintendo is in a different industry nowadays.

[entrerix]

i pretty much agree that nintendo is sort of in its own league, but you can bet that we'll see the next xbox announced at e3 next year. microsoft will want to try and crush all excitement for a new stronger nintendo machine by showing off what THEIR next gen machine can do.

 

sony will try and take the dignified route by being patient and waiting a little longer saying "we always said 10 years for ps3", but really they will end up releasing less than a year after microsoft so as now to fall too far behind.

[Labadal]

Makes perfect sense for Nintendo. The console is not doing well in Japan, hitting record low sales week after week. Not many big titles: Zelda and Dragon Quest X are the ones left. Then what? Not much. I also think they need a new console to try to grab the attention of third party developers. Plus HD is about time. Wii was/is great for them, but they probably need more developers to be onboard this time.

[Blarghagh]

I sorta think those record low sales have less to do with the console and more with what Japan is going through right now.

[Morgoth]

Well let's hope there will be strong 3rd Party support this time around. An Eternal Darkness sequel in HD would be pretty awesome.

[Labadal]

I sorta think those record low sales have less to do with the console and more with what Japan is going through right now.

 

Untrue. PSP and PS3 are doing better than ever over there. Nintendo 3DS didn't have the launch Nintendo expected, but it was good nevertheless. The old nintendo DS is doing ok. the wii trend in japan has been like this for some months now - completely unrelated to the earthquake(s).

[Morgoth]

Nintendo courting Rockstar for Wii 2 development

 

Knowing Nintendo, they will probably go for a cheap console, so it will use obsolete hardware. Probably in line with 360/PS3 power so that 3rd party support is better.

 

Having superior hardware though would mean more exclusives, and possibly less 3rd party support as a whole.

[Niten_Ryu]

Nindendo will probably go for something like mid range PC powerbase. Something that can do 720p for all games @ 60 fps and 1080 @ 30 fps. Fast paced Mario game will benefit greatly from 60 fps (even if consumers generally can't tell what makes it better in their eyes). Price tag could be something like $350.

 

For 3rd party this means that they can continue to support Xbox360 and PS3, while giving PC quality textures, higher screen resolution and framerate for the Nindendo's new console. They probably have some weird gimmick again. Maybe VR

[Serrano]

I always regretted never getting to try the VR attachment for the Jaguar. I know it's probably not "all that" when you're actually using it but it did look like fun.

[Wrath of Dagon]

New Xbox and PS not expected till 2014: http://kotaku.com/#!5794000/microsoft-...do-in-the-clear

[Niten_Ryu]

2014 is damn late, but not unexpected. Consoles managed to kill AAA PC game development and now they do damage even for themself with too long console ganeration. Epic, Crytek, Ubisoft and other developers are definately not happy for one console generation for going this long. Consumer grade tablets and smart phones already start to pass consoles power and they release new models all the time.

 

2014 consoles power scale would be roughly same as high end PCs today (mainly limiting factors are the heat generated by gfx card, memory and prosessors). If that generation also last as long as this generation, basically development is locked into stagnation for the whole decade... or even worse. 2007 released game Crysis (best settings) is just barely playable with 60 fps with high end PCs.

[Wrath of Dagon]

Piracy is what killed AAA PC game development, not consoles. In any case, when the last generation of consoles was introduced, there were almost no good games for 3 years or so. Introduction of new consoles is very disruptive, I don't blame them for trying to drag it out for as long as possible. Tablet, phone games are fundamentally different short pick up and play time wasters, not real games.

[Morgoth]

2014 sounds about right, and I guess there will be another couple years overlapping for the old systems. If you start developing in 2013 for 360 you should still be able to release it in 2016.

[Wrath of Dagon]

Another thing I forgot to mention is that the new much more powerful game engines are only starting to come out now, Crytek, UE4, Id5, Frostbite. That should carry the current gen for another couple of years, and then they'll start talking about the wonders of the new generation.

[Niten_Ryu]

Piracy is what killed AAA PC game development, not consoles. In any case, when the last generation of consoles was introduced, there were almost no good games for 3 years or so. Introduction of new consoles is very disruptive, I don't blame them for trying to drag it out for as long as possible. Tablet, phone games are fundamentally different short pick up and play time wasters, not real games.

 

No, piracy didn't kill AAA PC games, because piracy has always been problem for the PC and consoles too (for example Xbox 360 exclusive game Alan Wake was pirated more then bought and that was data from public torrent trackers - not private nor from free download sites like rapidshare or hotfile). PS3 stayed piracy free untill recently. Didn't help its sales to make a difference.

 

PS2 and original Xbox caused many developer to move to consoles, so not like this is recent thing. AAA quality PC gaming has died a slow death.

 

Also I didn't mean exclusve PC games, I meant that AAA games developed for PC first (meaning keyboard + mouse combo from the early design onwards, more advanced graphical options, HUD designed for the PC ect ect) and then ported to consoles, based on what consoles can handle on their 3-4 year old lifecycle. This pushed tech forwards, even for consoles as they needed to upgrade on faster pace.

 

You said there were no good games in 3 years, I disagree. Maybe for the first year. Anyway, good is relative so let's look some of the biggest new brands in first 3 years - Assassins Creed (2007), Gears of War (2006), Modern Warfare (2007, technically old Call of Duty brand, but in new time era and generation defining game), Bioshock (2007), Mass Effect (2007).

 

Developers want to launch new IPs relatively early on in console generation. November 2007 clearly show this and it was roughly 2 years after Xbox 360 release. First year is understandably dry and perhaps q1 and q2. If console generation would last 4 years, it would give 'em original game and one well developed sequel in that timeframe. Now they have to pump out several sequels or take huge risks with new brands in late of the console generation.

[LadyCrimson]

So if the guesses are right, it'll be a couple more years before this computer I built 1.5 years ago is challenged by any game I might personally want. Meaning that, barring a new graphic card 2-3 times, I shouldn't have to build a new PC for another 4-5 years. Awesome. Frankly I'm glad things have slowed down for a while.

 

...do you think the economy the last couple yeras may have slowed down development on new consoles? Or maybe not development per se, but the release.

[Enoch]

...do you think the economy the last couple yeras may have slowed down development on new consoles? Or maybe not development per se, but the release.

Quite possibly.

 

Another factor: What can you put in a TV commercial that immediately communicates to the viewer how a next-gen console is better than a current-gen one? The transition from PS2/Xbox to PS3/360 was immediately obvious, with the big jump in supported screen resolution. But the differences between a current-gen AAA title and a prospective next-gen AAA launch title are going to be more subtle. Sure, you'll get the smother textures and such that you currently see on games that scale up for top-end PC hardware. But that isn't going to hit audiences the way that the jump to HD did and immediately convince them that their old console is an outdated piece of junk. It's harder to sell "games can have levels that won't fit comfortably inside a shoebox" in a TV ad. And with online multiplayer being such a big element of console gaming now, people aren't going to have the incentive to upgrade unless it brings a critical mass of their friends/rivals/anonymous douchebags to play against/with.

Edited April 20, 2011 by Enoch

[LadyCrimson]

Another factor: What can you put in a TV commercial that immediately communicates to the viewer how a next-gen console is better than a current-gen one? The transition from PS2/Xbox to PS3/360 was immediately obvious, with the big jump in supported screen resolution. But the differences between a current-gen AAA title and a prospective next-gen AAA launch title are going to be more subtle. Sure, you'll get the smother textures and such that you currently see on games that scale up for top-end PC hardware. But that isn't going to hit audiences the way that the jump to HD did and immediately convince them that their old console is an outdated piece of junk. It's harder to sell "games can have levels that won't fit comfortably inside a shoebox" in a TV ad. And with online multiplayer being such a big element of console gaming now, people aren't going to have the incentive to upgrade unless it brings a critical mass of their friends/rivals/anonymous douchebags to play against/with.

I think that's a good point. It's not the same thing, but increase in TV size (as a sales factor) seemed to level off for a similar reason ... it may seem silly now, but those size increases were an awesome thing once, even without HD resolutions. (edit:friends who had 32" tube TV's were sooo lucky, lol). Going from 19" to 27" was kewl, and 27" to 50" even better, but most ppl don't care about a huge screen past a certain point and thus TV's turned to new "features" to attract buyers.

 

Definitely more difficult to sell something that's difficult to show a "must have" advantage for in a 15-30 second ad. Or that's too techy for the average consumer to care about.

Edited April 20, 2011 by LadyCrimson

[GreasyDogMeat]

Piracy is what killed AAA PC game development, not consoles. In any case, when the last generation of consoles was introduced, there were almost no good games for 3 years or so. Introduction of new consoles is very disruptive, I don't blame them for trying to drag it out for as long as possible. Tablet, phone games are fundamentally different short pick up and play time wasters, not real games.

 

No, piracy didn't kill AAA PC games, because piracy has always been problem for the PC and consoles too (for example Xbox 360 exclusive game Alan Wake was pirated more then bought and that was data from public torrent trackers - not private nor from free download sites like rapidshare or hotfile). PS3 stayed piracy free untill recently. Didn't help its sales to make a difference.

One of the reasons I got a console was the recent crap being pulled with DRM like install restrictions, the lunacy involving Mysteries of Westgate etc. Piracy & the (over)reaction to it may not have directly killed PC gaming, but it sure as heck didn't help.

Edited April 20, 2011 by GreasyDogMeat

[Wrath of Dagon]

Another factor: What can you put in a TV commercial that immediately communicates to the viewer how a next-gen console is better than a current-gen one? The transition from PS2/Xbox to PS3/360 was immediately obvious, with the big jump in supported screen resolution.

Little known fact: Old Xbox supported both 720P and 1080i. Of course there was only like one game in each resolution.

 

As far as piracy, sure, it was always around, but with the internet it's a hell of a lot bigger problem. By the same token, piracy is a problem for consoles also, but only a small percentage of them are modded, thus console piracy is still a manageable problem. And may be there were "big" games in 2007 (that's 2 years after 360 came out), but they're all mainstream crap, only after 3 years or so is there enough diversity that I can actually find stuff I like.

[greylord]

Piracy is what killed AAA PC game development, not consoles. In any case, when the last generation of consoles was introduced, there were almost no good games for 3 years or so. Introduction of new consoles is very disruptive, I don't blame them for trying to drag it out for as long as possible. Tablet, phone games are fundamentally different short pick up and play time wasters, not real games.

 

Hell no. FEAR of piracy is what killed the games. Dang DRM made us all console gamers...or pirates. The few left playing PC games are split between avoiding the entire Retail fiasco and d/ling it straight of steam meaning there is no retail market comparable to consoles at this point. Console's strong point is you don't have to authenticate over the internet and mess around setting simply because the makers of the game are accusing you of pirating a legit copy you bought from them.

 

As for consoles, anyone who travels much knows that the piracy on Consoles has FAR outstripped anything anyone sees on PC for the past 10 years. I go to the market in Africa, many parts of Asia or the ME and I can buy just about any console game...and they are ALL pirated...and sold for USD $5.

 

If piracy is connected to sales, seeing the relationship between piracy sales and consoles...one would imagine that piracy actually HELPS sales in that regard.

 

Of course it probably doesn't...but console piracy is waaaay bigger then PC piracy in non-western nations as far as the market goes. You have a hard time finding many of the PC games..and since they have no compunction about blocking sites most of the piracy sites are blocked in many of those same locations (though many hackers there which fuel the console piracy trade probably have easy ways around the blocks for both PC and console games).

 

On the next Gen of Consoles...I think there has been a stagnation of PC tech as well. The PC hasn't really pushed as far forward as fast as it used to previous to the last console releases. Heck, you can still buy cards that are from 5 years ago in certain stores!

 

It used to be after two or three years that would be impossible.

 

If anything the next gen may push the PC market forward as well. I expect it will have a giant leap as far as memory, processor speeds, and perhaps the ideas with harddrives and internet integration into gameplay.

 

I also expect the Consoles will jump up in price again for PS and Xbox to at least the $500 range maybe the $1000 range (they seem to increase in how much they sell the new console with each new iteration.

 

As for Sony, they are just now starting to hit their stride with the PS3...why would they replace it so soon after they FINALLY started getting popular again (remember, when they first came out everyone decried the PS3 as the biggest loser and failure of this console war...but Sony insisted that PS3 was a 10 year plan and in the long run they'd come out on top). They still may come out on top if they continue...but they haven't gotten there yet.

Edited April 21, 2011 by greylord

[Wrath of Dagon]

As for consoles, anyone who travels much knows that the piracy on Consoles has FAR outstripped anything anyone sees on PC for the past 10 years. I go to the market in Africa, many parts of Asia or the ME and I can buy just about any console game...and they are ALL pirated...and sold for USD $5.

 

If piracy is connected to sales, seeing the relationship between piracy sales and consoles...one would imagine that piracy actually HELPS sales in that regard.

 

Of course it probably doesn't...but console piracy is waaaay bigger then PC piracy in non-western nations as far as the market goes.

No one cares, the publishers make their money in the West. The only way to make money elsewhere is to make the game there, and then you have to use different means to monetize it, like on-line microtransactions.

[pmp10]

As for consoles, anyone who travels much knows that the piracy on Consoles has FAR outstripped anything anyone sees on PC for the past 10 years.

Source for that?

Simple survey of the torrent trackers would still point to the contrary.

I go to the market in Africa, many parts of Asia or the ME and I can buy just about any console game...and they are ALL pirated...and sold for USD $5.

That's an exaggeration.

PS3 has been cracked only recently and is now re-secured with firmware updates.

You can't buy a pirate version of Portal 2 for PS3 (at least for the time being).

On the next Gen of Consoles...I think there has been a stagnation of PC tech as well. The PC hasn't really pushed as far forward as fast as it used to previous to the last console releases. Heck, you can still buy cards that are from 5 years ago in certain stores!

 

It used to be after two or three years that would be impossible.

What makes you think that PCs are still in need of constant upgrades?

As the old PC market divides into specialized devices the need for universal desktop computers grows ever smaller.

In fact laptop sales have almost overtaken desktop sales recently.

And there is only so much upgrading (or gaming) that can be done with laptops.

[greylord]

As for consoles, anyone who travels much knows that the piracy on Consoles has FAR outstripped anything anyone sees on PC for the past 10 years.

Source for that?

Simple survey of the torrent trackers would still point to the contrary.

I go to the market in Africa, many parts of Asia or the ME and I can buy just about any console game...and they are ALL pirated...and sold for USD $5.

That's an exaggeration.

PS3 has been cracked only recently and is now re-secured with firmware updates.

You can't buy a pirate version of Portal 2 for PS3 (at least for the time being).

On the next Gen of Consoles...I think there has been a stagnation of PC tech as well. The PC hasn't really pushed as far forward as fast as it used to previous to the last console releases. Heck, you can still buy cards that are from 5 years ago in certain stores!

 

It used to be after two or three years that would be impossible.

What makes you think that PCs are still in need of constant upgrades?

As the old PC market divides into specialized devices the need for universal desktop computers grows ever smaller.

In fact laptop sales have almost overtaken desktop sales recently.

And there is only so much upgrading (or gaming) that can be done with laptops.

 

My source is ME...because I've BEEN there, I don't live in a shell...I go to the stores, I go shopping, and I see what's there. The entire Piracy threat that they talk about is miniscule in the West in relation to what is elsewhere. Movies will be released on the day of or earlier for pirated DVD's...with the shopkeeper telling that you can come back and trade it in later for a better copy.

 

And despite your delusions, you CAN buy a copy of anything just released, at least when in many Non-western nations. Video Games and Movies are pretty available over in those areas of the world, it's actually pretty hard to find someplace that actually sells legitimate copies. The pirates ALWAYS undersell them and hence no one wants to sell legit items.

 

If the companies TRULY wanted to stop piracy, the first places they should combat would be these areas. I think Microsoft tried in China by offering a copy of Windows which you DID NOT HAVE TO AUTHENTICATE and sold for DIRT CHEAP.

 

Piracy on the scale that it is in these other nations is literally unknown in the West. Unlike the guys on the sidelines in NYC or in a side street in London, these shops are typically some of the mainstream stores in many instances. Perhaps it's hard for you to imagine just what true electronic piracy is like, but the entire thing they are doing in the West and arguing it's for piracy is laughable when considering the scale of it in other parts of the World.

 

Edit...PS: In case you are wondering, I don't support the piracy in these places. Most of my co-workers will buy the DVDs...sometimes the games...and they ARE dirt cheap. I typically stick to buying the items when I get back home, and abstain from the items over there. In many cases it's almost impossible to figure out which is the legit copy and which is the pirated copy. I remember buying a set in Asia of what I thought were a set of legit Star Trek season 2 DVD's...only to start really looking at them under the light 2 weeks later and realizing some of the stuff on them looked incredibly weird...and eventually realizing that they may actually have been made in original presses for the legit disks...but were actually probably pirated copies (yes, they can be that good and actually sometimes have people who make the actual DVD's for that region doing the pirated copies at the same time). I tossed them and bought a legit set later.

Edited April 22, 2011 by greylord

[pmp10]

My source is ME...because I've BEEN there, I don't live in a shell...I go to the stores, I go shopping, and I see what's there.

I'm not arguing that scale of piracy is insignificant, it's that console piracy is greater than one on PC is what I find unlikely.

The issue I have is with implication that software piracy is unstoppable with which I disagree.

Video Games and Movies are pretty available over in those areas of the world, it's actually pretty hard to find someplace that actually sells legitimate copies.

There is a world of difference between securing software and media.

There will never be a effective solution to protecting the latter as thanks to it's non-interactive nature all you need is a video camera.

Software works differently.

If the companies TRULY wanted to stop piracy, the first places they should combat would be these areas. I think Microsoft tried in China by offering a copy of Windows which you DID NOT HAVE TO AUTHENTICATE and sold for DIRT CHEAP.

They have been doing that for a while now.

Game pricing in Russia or Hong-Kong is significantly lower than in western countries.

I doubt it will do them much good in the long run, I imagine they are actually losing money on that business.

Piracy on the scale that it is in these other nations is literally unknown in the West. Unlike the guys on the sidelines in NYC or in a side street in London, these shops are typically some of the mainstream stores in many instances. Perhaps it's hard for you to imagine just what true electronic piracy is like, but the entire thing they are doing in the West and arguing it's for piracy is laughable when considering the scale of it in other parts of the World.

I'm perfectly aware how big a business piracy is.

The point is that it can be effectively combated on consoles if people designing them will actually put effort into it. Companies designing and securing those machines can make use of far greater technical expertise than any would-be hacker.

Whether they actually want to is another matter.