North Korea attacks and sinks South Korean ship, killing 46 people

[Gorgon]

Make it look like one of his girlfriends did it. Besides, the military complex is already in control. Can't hurt to try a toss of the dice.

[Wrath of Dagon]

... but they sure are to their own citizens.

True, but that alone does not legitimize a war against them.

 

I disagree. I believe we have a moral obligation to act and remove a regime in instances where a people are brutally oppressed. North Korea is a complex case. It's not immediately evident how we could act while minimising loss of life, but action is certainly necessary.

They're under Chinese protection, and even without that casualties would be staggering, especially on the North Korean side. NK knows war is out of the question, unless they launch a full scale assault on SK.

[Hurlshort]

China is a lot closer to the US than NK, I imagine they can be convinced pretty easily to not take sides. Actually they would probably insist on joining the cause and being given control of the government. Of course the US probably wouldn't go for that.

[Humodour]

... but they sure are to their own citizens.

True, but that alone does not legitimize a war against them.

 

I disagree. I believe we have a moral obligation to act and remove a regime in instances where a people are brutally oppressed. North Korea is a complex case. It's not immediately evident how we could act while minimising loss of life, but action is certainly necessary.

They're under Chinese protection, and even without that casualties would be staggering, especially on the North Korean side. NK knows war is out of the question, unless they launch a full scale assault on SK.

 

China is fairly estranged from NK and would most likely not take sides in any conflict involving NK.

 

Casualties on the NK might be reasonably low simply because of South Korea's more advanced firepower and respect for human rights. SK would be like a surgeon in any war between the two I imagine. But NK would have no qualms about bombing SK's civilian cities so...

[I want teh kotor 3]

Of course, because world political leaders are pussies, nothing will happen besides UN sanctions, which have no effect whatsoever.

[Syraxis]

As usual NK continues to make empty threats

 

I'll be surprised if NK lasts until 2015, they really are on their last string.

[Wrath of Dagon]

China is fairly estranged from NK and would most likely not take sides in any conflict involving NK.

Not sure what you guys are basing that on, China is still NK's patron and the only thing keeping them afloat. No way they could get away with all their crap if it wasn't for China.

[Hurlshort]

China is fairly estranged from NK and would most likely not take sides in any conflict involving NK.

Not sure what you guys are basing that on, China is still NK's patron and the only thing keeping them afloat. No way they could get away with all their crap if it wasn't for China.

 

NK relies on China, but the reverse is not true. China is a capitalist country nowadays, they aren't going to risk their economy on NK. Politically they may posture themselves, but they are going to choose what is best for them financially.

[Wrath of Dagon]

China has their own agenda, right now they consider it in their best interests to support NK, not in the least because it gives them leverage over the US.

[Enoch]

As I understand it, a large part of the Chinese support for NK stems from the speculation that any fall of the NK government would lead to hundreds of thousands of refugees coming over the border for the Chinese to deal with. It's cheaper and less destabilizing to throw Kim some support to help maintain the status quo.

Edited May 20, 2010 by Enoch

[Hurlshort]

China has their own agenda, right now they consider it in their best interests to support NK, not in the least because it gives them leverage over the US.

 

How is that in their best interest, and how would that give them leverage?

[Volourn]

China will back NK as long as its prudent to do so. But, even China won't back them if Nk poushes too far. China has given NK a major tongue lashing in the past, and if this report is true, I would not be surprised if China will okay further snactions... which will prove how empty the NK threats for 'full scale war' are as I doubt they would commit to a full scale war over sanctions as a full scale war would likely - no matter the result - end with a certain leaer no longer leading his country... if he doesn't believe it, he can ask his buddy Hussein...

[213374U]

North Korea has been violating the demilitarized zone along the 38

[Zoraptor]

As usual NK continues to make empty threats

Their threats definitively are not empty. They have 5000 artillery pieces trained on Seoul, let alone their missiles, nukes and whatnot. They can effectively level Seoul any time they want and there is absolutely nothing anyone can do to stop them. For all the lol North Korea haha rofl from the west to try and make people think it isn't a problem everyone in power knows that it is and that there is precisely nothing that can be done.

 

I haven't read the report (I probably will if it is made publicly available) but I'm at the point where I wouldn't believe the western "intelligence" community if they said the sky was blue.

[Orogun01]

As usual NK continues to make empty threats

Their threats definitively are not empty. They have 5000 artillery pieces trained on Seoul, let alone their missiles, nukes and whatnot. They can effectively level Seoul any time they want and there is absolutely nothing anyone can do to stop them. For all the lol North Korea haha rofl from the west to try and make people think it isn't a problem everyone in power knows that it is and that there is precisely nothing that can be done.

 

I haven't read the report (I probably will if it is made publicly available) but I'm at the point where I wouldn't believe the western "intelligence" community if they said the sky was blue.

The problem with exerting that kind of force is that renders deterrence useless and then there is nothing stopping the rest of the world coming full strength on them.

[Wrath of Dagon]

China has their own agenda, right now they consider it in their best interests to support NK, not in the least because it gives them leverage over the US.

 

How is that in their best interest, and how would that give them leverage?

We have to rely on them to restrain their mad dog. It wouldn't be very politic of China to threaten us with nuclear weapons, but NK can as a proxy. Enoch already explained why collapse of NK would cause problems for China, but more importantly they don't want the Koreas reunited under the South Korean system as that would be a challenge to Chinese hegemony in the region.

[Humodour]

China is fairly estranged from NK and would most likely not take sides in any conflict involving NK.

Not sure what you guys are basing that on, China is still NK's patron and the only thing keeping them afloat. No way they could get away with all their crap if it wasn't for China.

 

The ONLY thing China cares about is preventing economic and social unrest due to an influx of poor, brainwashed, malnourished North Koreans fleeing war. And indeed, this is probably also the main reason Russia and South Korea don't want a war. North Korea bears little ideological benefit to China - the rest of the world despises NK ideology and it's pretty divorced from even China's authoritarian ways. China acknowledges the cold war is over and that their long-term economic (and hence social and political) success lies with the West.

 

You underestimate just how estranged China and NK are. Sure, China is NK's closest ally, but that doesn't say much.

 

As usual NK continues to make empty threats

Their threats definitively are not empty. They have 5000 artillery pieces trained on Seoul, let alone their missiles, nukes and whatnot. They can effectively level Seoul any time they want and there is absolutely nothing anyone can do to stop them. For all the lol North Korea haha rofl from the west to try and make people think it isn't a problem everyone in power knows that it is and that there is precisely nothing that can be done.

 

I haven't read the report (I probably will if it is made publicly available) but I'm at the point where I wouldn't believe the western "intelligence" community if they said the sky was blue.

 

If they do that they know it's game over - North Korea would be completely engulfed by the West shortly after.

[Tigranes]

The problem with exerting that kind of force is that renders deterrence useless and then there is nothing stopping the rest of the world coming full strength on them.

 

The problem with that is... well, destroying one of the largest metropolises in the world with over 15 million inhabitants, with knock on effects on the world economy.

[Humodour]

China has their own agenda, right now they consider it in their best interests to support NK, not in the least because it gives them leverage over the US.

 

How is that in their best interest, and how would that give them leverage?

We have to rely on them to restrain their mad dog. It wouldn't be very politic of China to threaten us with nuclear weapons, but NK can as a proxy. Enoch already explained why collapse of NK would cause problems for China, but more importantly they don't want the Koreas reunited under the South Korean system as that would be a challenge to Chinese hegemony in the region.

 

China officially supports Korean unification, not least of all because China supports Chinese reunification and doesn't want to look hypocritical. They certainly aren't afraid of Korea challenging their hegemony (that role belongs to India), and indeed a unified Korea would actually be a net drag on South Korea economically (and no doubt politically) for a few decades.

[Hurlshort]

China has their own agenda, right now they consider it in their best interests to support NK, not in the least because it gives them leverage over the US.

 

How is that in their best interest, and how would that give them leverage?

We have to rely on them to restrain their mad dog. It wouldn't be very politic of China to threaten us with nuclear weapons, but NK can as a proxy. Enoch already explained why collapse of NK would cause problems for China, but more importantly they don't want the Koreas reunited under the South Korean system as that would be a challenge to Chinese hegemony in the region.

 

You seem to be about a decade behind on current events. China and the US are major trade partners. They have no need to threaten with nukes, even through a proxy. There is no money in that.

[Zoraptor]

The problem with exerting that kind of force is that renders deterrence useless and then there is nothing stopping the rest of the world coming full strength on them.

 

The problem with that is... well, destroying one of the largest metropolises in the world with over 15 million inhabitants, with knock on effects on the world economy.

And even that isn't the full extent of the problem. We aren't talking about Iraq which has had crippling sanctions, a military which had been functionally obliterated fifteen years previous and large areas of its nominal territory not even in its control. NK has ballistic missiles, nukes, chemical weapons, submarines that are apparently good enough to sink a western warship in a hot zone, truly stupendous amounts of artillery, a properly functioning and reasonably modern AA infrastructure and seventy years to stockpile and prepare. If they feel pressured enough they will use the whole lot, and that means missiles potentially nuclear and if not nuclear then chemical/ biological hitting Japan and anywhere else with US bases or sympathies, submarines sinking merchant ships etc etc as well as the colossal damage done to the South from an invasion by a million man army.

 

And yeah, they'd lose eventually but that won't magically repair the damage done in the meantime. Whatever the west does will be specifically tailored to avoid doing anything significant because while the North talks a good messianic apocalyptico we definitely don't and have little choice other than to let the Chinese prop them up and hope they eventually sort themselves out. Everything else is just window dressing.

[Tigranes]

I agree with Krezack - maybe China might have really feared Korean unification if it happened in the late 1990s, e.g. instead of the IMF. By now China's economic rise has already gained so much momentum, and politicallyw e are already seeing big overtures made from places like Australia. There will at least be a decade of problems for Korea if they unify in this half of the century, especially depending on teh manner of reunification - massive, massive problems of exploitation, regulations, unemployment, social inequality, economic distribution, political mapping, infrastructure, etc. It'll be like building a country from scratch, but harder.

 

Koreans like to talk about how it is the population that limits them (although their abnormal concentration of millions of highly educated people in Seoul is what causes the ludicrous competitiveness in education and in later life (it's normal to work 360 days a year, +10 hours a day)), and that reunification will be the thing that takes them to the next level, but it would onlyr eally happen after ~20 years.

[Orogun01]

And even that isn't the full extent of the problem. We aren't talking about Iraq which has had crippling sanctions, a military which had been functionally obliterated fifteen years previous and large areas of its nominal territory not even in its control. NK has ballistic missiles, nukes, chemical weapons, submarines that are apparently good enough to sink a western warship in a hot zone, truly stupendous amounts of artillery, a properly functioning and reasonably modern AA infrastructure and seventy years to stockpile and prepare. If they feel pressured enough they will use the whole lot, and that means missiles potentially nuclear and if not nuclear then chemical/ biological hitting Japan and anywhere else with US bases or sympathies, submarines sinking merchant ships etc etc as well as the colossal damage done to the South from an invasion by a million man army.

 

And yeah, they'd lose eventually but that won't magically repair the damage done in the meantime. Whatever the west does will be specifically tailored to avoid doing anything significant because while the North talks a good messianic apocalyptico we definitely don't and have little choice other than to let the Chinese prop them up and hope they eventually sort themselves out. Everything else is just window dressing.

Yeah, but the Chinese don't seem all that interested and I have to question the effectiveness of talking to Kim Jong. So maybe we are in a Cold War with NK that's just waiting to happen, with more of these antics it won't be long before they actually do something that would cause a war.

[Humodour]

If NK sunk a SK ship every couple of months, what would SK do?

 

Objectively it's supreme grounds for war, but...

[Orogun01]

If NK sunk a SK ship every couple of months, what would SK do?

 

Objectively it's supreme grounds for war, but...

If NK sunk ships on a monthly basis is bound to hit some that aren't SK. Plus there is the whole other aspect of them kidnapping people because they represent a "threat" to them, IIRC you posted about a journalist that was in one of their prisons. Let's say that there is another case like that and doesn't end well, how do you think that the international community will respond to that? NK is bordering between being the world's annoying neighbor and a genuine danger.