Ukraine Conflict - war continues on

[Zoraptor]

5 hours ago, Lexx said:

From where do you get that information?

That is obviously doomposting. The situation isn't that bad, though it is bad.

Ukraine clearly isn't going to accept just any old deal just from the events of the last few days even if they've shifted significantly in terms of what they will accept over the last few months. Europe also clearly doesn't really care that much about the current corruption scandal given who they just welcomed with open arms- Yermak, probably the second most important guy who has been implicated; and the chief negotiator with Rubio and the Euros. Which, one suspects, was Zelensky calling their bluff as much as anything, making sure there's lots of footage of Euro politicos shaking hands with him in case of more pressure to sack him.

The collapses are strictly localised, at the moment. The problem is that while Ukraine can still stop the really critical ones they just shift elsewhere, which then eventually become critical themselves, and the timeframe for the collapses is accelerating. They are at real risk of losing three very important towns inside a month which hasn't happened since the start of the war; one of which people would have thought you mad suggesting it was in play a month ago (Huliapole; for all that people make fun of Russia not learning you'd think Ukraine would have some defences facing north for a major defensive city after 40 months...). 

The desertions are a big problem though, that isn't overstated. Getting actual figures is difficult, since there are at least three classifications for desertion adjacent absence from service (~awol, 'missing*', and criminal desertion) and the whole thing is highly politicised. Best estimate seems to be at least a 5 figure number deserting every month and something like a quarter of a million total. The interesting recruitment method videos are also so ubiquitous now that only the most die hard of Ukraine supporters think they're just Russian propaganda.

*though more usually that's dead rather than deserted, and used to avoid paying widow pensions/ compensation it's also for those who desert under combat conditions or surrender without a fight and don't want to register with the RC for fear they'll be traded back.

Edited 1 hour ago by Zoraptor

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