Syrian civil war

[Mamoulian War]

As there is no better place (with the exception of one thread defending Assad’s and Russian murderuous spree in Syria), and the current events are unfolding mainly due to someone being to busy to sacrifice hundreds of thousands own people in WW1 style meat grinder, I’ll post it here.

Assad has “run” to Moskva, as soon as Syrian rebels has decided to show Russia, how a 3 day Special Military Operation should be properly executed. Aleppo along with more than 50 towns, including strategic airbase at Abu al-Duhur, have been liberated from Russian occupiers overnight.

[HoonDing]

Big win for the Kurds, Assyrians, and Armenians in Aleppo.

[Gorth]

I'm sure the people of Aleppo will be much happier under their new Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (formerly Al Qaida and Isis) overlords

After all, Afghanistan is such an exemplary society

edit: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce313jn453zo

[Malcador]

Should just make a new thread for the Syrian civil war. I guess now is a good time as any, Hezbollah is recovering still.

Maybe Bibi will decide to invade

[BruceVC]

15 minutes ago, Gorth said:

I'm sure the people of Aleppo will be much happier under their new Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (formerly Al Qaida and Isis) overlords

After all, Afghanistan is such an exemplary society

edit: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce313jn453zo

You mean the people  in Aleppo who werent massacred by Assad the last time?

 

Have you ever seen the photos of what Aleppo looked like after Russia, Iran and Assad were finished, this is a good link because it shows before and after photos so you can see the magnitude of the destruction 

https://www.cbsnews.com/pictures/aleppo-before-and-after-syria-civil-war/4/

 

 

 

 

Edited November 30 by BruceVC

[Malcador]

What a strange response to what Gorth wrote. Oh well, all the rebels have to do is yell Slava Ukraini and all is well.

Syrian army is embarassing, hopefully the country doesn't go the way of Somalia in the 90s.

[Gorth]

1 hour ago, BruceVC said:

You mean the people  in Aleppo who werent massacred by Assad the last time?

 

Have you ever seen the photos of what Aleppo looked like after Russia, Iran and Assad were finished, this is a good link because it shows before and after photos so you can see the magnitude of the destruction 

https://www.cbsnews.com/pictures/aleppo-before-and-after-syria-civil-war/4/

 

Are you saying terrorist groups entrenching themselves in urban areas, deliberately hiding amongst civilians bear no responsibility for the consequences? Genuinely curious, because most people claim the opposite...

[BruceVC]

30 minutes ago, Gorth said:

Are you saying terrorist groups entrenching themselves in urban areas, deliberately hiding amongst civilians bear no responsibility for the consequences? Genuinely curious, because most people claim the opposite...

Thats the exact same argument the Israelis make around the high number of civilian deaths  in Gaza

Hamas hides out in civilian structures and the high civilian death is regrettable but it cant be avoided 

Whats your view on that reasoning, can it be avoided?

 

 

 

[Gorth]

24 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

Thats the exact same argument the Israelis make around the high number of civilian deaths  in Gaza

Hamas hides out in civilian structures and the high civilian death is regrettable but it cant be avoided 

Whats your view on that reasoning, can it be avoided?

I couldn't say, because I don't know enough about the forces trying to root out the entrenched part. But I suspect both decided the risk of loss of life of own troops outweighed any consideration for collateral civilian casualties (in both cases)

 

edit: i.e. for me, there is no difference between Hamas in Gaza and HTS in in Aleppo, nor is there any noticeable difference between the approach of the Syrian and Israeli government when it comes to dislodging them

[BruceVC]

12 minutes ago, Gorth said:

I couldn't say, because I don't know enough about the forces trying to root out the entrenched part. But I suspect both decided the risk of loss of life of own troops outweighed any consideration for collateral civilian casualties (in both cases)

 

edit: i.e. for me, there is no difference between Hamas in Gaza and HTS in in Aleppo, nor is there any noticeable difference between the approach of the Syrian and Israeli government when it comes to dislodging them

Yes, that is the justification

The solution is what I have mentioned in the Gaza thread. Ground troops only  that clear the city block by block and missiles and airpower is used only as last resort. Its  costly in lives of soldiers and time consuming but you avoid large amounts of civilian deaths  

But neither the Syrians\Russians or Israelis are prepared to do that for the reasons you mentioned 

 

[Mamoulian War]

2 hours ago, Gorth said:

I'm sure the people of Aleppo will be much happier under their new Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (formerly Al Qaida and Isis) overlords

After all, Afghanistan is such an exemplary society

edit: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce313jn453zo

It might be perverse to say it, but this might actually be the case here. Russians with Assad has already shown, how much disdain they have for human life. So in other words, ex Al Qaeda is currently attacking the biggest and richest terrorist organization in the world, with the help of Syrian Kurds, which are probably the single entity in this chaos, who might be, at least with handful of sand, described as the “most-likely good guys”. There is at least a small glimpse of hope, that in future, it would be easier for Syrians to overthrow unafilliated terrorist group than Russian State-Backed Terrorists, which are currently the “official governing body” in Syria

[Zoraptor]

3 hours ago, Malcador said:

Syrian army is embarassing, hopefully the country doesn't go the way of Somalia in the 90s.

SAA is rubbish, indeed the only really competent unit the Syrian armed forces had (Tiger Forces/ Qalat al Nimr) was technically part of the airforce, not the army. And that seems to have gone to crap since it got put in the army. Every other competent unit was foreign (or Palestinian).

4 hours ago, BruceVC said:

You mean the people  in Aleppo who werent massacred by Assad the last time?

The death toll of civilians and military in 4 years of fighting in rif Aleppo- ie the whole province with a population of more than 5 million - was 32,000. That's roughly 0.6%

We've got an example of what wanton and deliberate slaughter of civilians, obliteration of civilian infrastructure and ethnic cleansing looks like and it sure ain't Aleppo. More women and children killed than total in Aleppo including combatants, and in a quarter of the time, and with Israel deliberately destroying the hospitals doing the count and killing the medical staff doing it to. And then of course there's Adnan al Bursh, the world famous orthopedic surgeon Israel tortured to death in its very own Sednaya. Which is AOK with Scholz, Biden/ Blinken, Starmer and the other Rules Based Order warriors. And big irony: Hamas is supporting the Syrian rebels.

Really though, people wonder why the west has such an awful reputation outside its bubble? Every accusation is a projection.

[BruceVC]

8 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

 

The death toll of civilians and military in 4 years of fighting in rif Aleppo- ie the whole province with a population of more than 5 million - was 32,000. That's roughly 0.6%

We've got an example of what wanton and deliberate slaughter of civilians, obliteration of civilian infrastructure and ethnic cleansing looks like and it sure ain't Aleppo. More women and children killed than total in Aleppo including combatants, and in a quarter of the time, and with Israel deliberately destroying the hospitals doing the count and killing the medical staff doing it to. And then of course there's Adnan al Bursh, the world famous orthopedic surgeon Israel tortured to death in its very own Sednaya. Which is AOK with Scholz, Biden/ Blinken, Starmer and the other Rules Based Order warriors. And big irony: Hamas is supporting the Syrian rebels.

Really though, people wonder why the west has such an awful reputation outside its bubble? Every accusation is a projection.

https://www.getty.edu/publications/cultural-heritage-mass-atrocities/part-2/10-bandarin/

" But the worst calamity has been the dispersal of the Syrian population due to the violence. In 2010 Syria had an estimated population of 21.8 million, which shrank to 20.5 million in 20155 and 19.4 million in 2018. It is estimated that at least five hundred thousand people were killed and two million wounded during the war; over 6.5 million people were internally displaced, and over five million, equal to over 20 percent of the country’s population, became international refugees" 

But because only 32k people were killed in Aleppo and the city was destroyed "nothing to see " 

The unnecessary tragedy around the Syrian war was clearly just a Western projection and  Assad, Russia and Iran did nothing wrong

Great argument Zora, very convincing 

 

 

 

[Zoraptor]

So were the people of Aleppo- direct quote from you- "massacred" Bruce? No.

We've seen over the last year what an actual massacre looks like.

More strawman more than a Worzel Gummidge convention.

[Gfted1]

10 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

...Worzel Gummidge...

I had to look that up, touche on the reference!

[Malcador]

Is a neat buff the IDF has, everyone they kill is someone else's fault, really. 

 

[ComradeYellow]

The West using every little dirty over-used tool in it's rucksack to try to divert Russian resources away from Ukraine.  Futile!

China has now publicly supported Bashar in his quest to hunt down Western backed terrorists.  Many Russians are admittedly annoyed with China for seemingly not being willing to send military aid to Syria.  But what many Russians (admittedly) don't seem to understand is that China is a superpower and cannot make the same mistakes USA makes - ie sending troops all over the world to "solve" problems.

[Lexx]

Indeed, people would then see that China is just a paper tiger as well.

[Gorth]

5 hours ago, Lexx said:

Indeed, people would then see that China is just a paper tiger as well.

Yeah... some people were apprehensive at the prospect of facing Russia after Syria but before Ukraine. Sometimes the image in your head is more intimidating than reality once it gets put to the test. Besides Syria, Russian military units are also active all over central and western Africa. Maybe there is a Molotov-Ribbentrop pact equivalent for partitioning Africa?

edit: between Russia and China that is

[BruceVC]

3 hours ago, Gorth said:

Yeah... some people were apprehensive at the prospect of facing Russia after Syria but before Ukraine. Sometimes the image in your head is more intimidating than reality once it gets put to the test. Besides Syria, Russian military units are also active all over central and western Africa. Maybe there is a Molotov-Ribbentrop pact equivalent for partitioning Africa?

edit: between Russia and China that is

Yes Africa has several examples of  the Russian military and state linked mercenaries meddling and getting involved  in civil wars and conflicts and they do it to  gain mineral resources and push neo-colonial Russian interests like vetoing the recent UNSC Sudan ceasefire 

The irony and hypocrisy with this is something I often raise, 10 years ago if this was Western forces this involved in this indirect way you would hear certain activists outraged  around the normal " Western  imperialism and colonialism " rhetoric 

But there is a deafening silence from most of  these same activists when Russia does the same thing they criticized Western countries for 

And this will continue while the Africa Union continues to be an ineffective block that lacks real unity and doesnt enforce its own manifesto or rules for  the continent 

 

[uuuhhii]

3 hours ago, Gorth said:

Yeah... some people were apprehensive at the prospect of facing Russia after Syria but before Ukraine. Sometimes the image in your head is more intimidating than reality once it gets put to the test. Besides Syria, Russian military units are also active all over central and western Africa. Maybe there is a Molotov-Ribbentrop pact equivalent for partitioning Africa?

edit: between Russia and China that is

 

like french and uk did

unlikely

russia seem to have forgotten how to prop up poppet like great power used to do

more incompetent than usa but with much less military budget to throw at the problem

[Gorth]

Split off from the Ukrainian "special military operation" thread....

[Gorth]

Interesting to see where this one goes (the war)... Israel and Turkey has both ganged up on Syria by the looks of it. IDF killing Iranian backed militia leaders and infrastructure, Turkey backing the HTS, because a Taliban style government in Baghdad gives an old Islamist like Erdogan wet dreams, hence the Turkish army providing safe places and logistical support for HTS. I wouldn't be surprised if some western leaders also were cheering for HTS, despite being acknowledge and classified as a terrorist organization...

The Syrian people seems to be less enthusiastic though, and the opposition to Assad... the Syrian people are "secular" by Middle Eastern standards and Assad seems to be the lesser of two evils (according to the BBC)

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgpdpgz4kdo

"It is too soon to write the Assad regime off. It has a core of genuine support. Some Syrians see it as the least bad option – better than the jihadists who came to dominate the rebellion. But if other anti-Assad groups – and there are many – rise up, his regime will once again be in mortal danger."

I don't see the Kurdish forces allying themselves with Erdogans goons either, leaving out probably the second strongest faction (after the regular Turkish army currently camped inside Syrias borders, because internationally recognized borders only counts when its convenient for the powers that be, otherwise to be ignored)

 

I wonder how the Israeli people are feeling about helping an Islamist terror group to power in Syria?

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

37 minutes ago, Gorth said:

I wonder how the Israeli people are feeling about helping an Islamist terror group to power in Syria?

Well Israel helped Hamas to undercut the PLO so probably ok.

[BruceVC]

2 hours ago, Gorth said:

Interesting to see where this one goes (the war)... Israel and Turkey has both ganged up on Syria by the looks of it. IDF killing Iranian backed militia leaders and infrastructure, Turkey backing the HTS, because a Taliban style government in Baghdad gives an old Islamist like Erdogan wet dreams, hence the Turkish army providing safe places and logistical support for HTS. I wouldn't be surprised if some western leaders also were cheering for HTS, despite being acknowledge and classified as a terrorist organization...

The Syrian people seems to be less enthusiastic though, and the opposition to Assad... the Syrian people are "secular" by Middle Eastern standards and Assad seems to be the lesser of two evils (according to the BBC)

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgpdpgz4kdo

"It is too soon to write the Assad regime off. It has a core of genuine support. Some Syrians see it as the least bad option – better than the jihadists who came to dominate the rebellion. But if other anti-Assad groups – and there are many – rise up, his regime will once again be in mortal danger."

I don't see the Kurdish forces allying themselves with Erdogans goons either, leaving out probably the second strongest faction (after the regular Turkish army currently camped inside Syrias borders, because internationally recognized borders only counts when its convenient for the powers that be, otherwise to be ignored)

 

I wonder how the Israeli people are feeling about helping an Islamist terror group to power in Syria?

Its interesting and complicated whats happening in Syria and its influenced by several different geopolitical realities and history

But we also know how the term   terrorist group gets defined but its selective around how people accept it. Hamas is designated a terrorist group by the US and I consider them a terrorist group but lots of people opposed to Israel for different reasons consider Hamas freedom fighters who are fighting against an oppressive and "Apartheid" Israel 

And then the incorrect comparison gets  used with the real struggle against Apartheid in South Africa and a  legitimate argument gets made similar to " was the ANC and Mandela really terrorists " 

For me Mandela was a terrorist in the technical definition of terrorism which is using violence to achieve a political change but because the Apartheid state was never a legitimate government, it didnt represent all citizens in the country, I dont consider him a terrorist and the ANC did fight against an oppressive and unsustainable type of government 

Syria is more complicated but I try to keep it simple

Assad had a choice when the early Arab Spring protests started, he could have avoided the war by allowing inclusion and more  political and economic representation of all Syrians and allowing something as simple as a free and fair election . As your  link mentions 

" Pedersen added that there had been "a collective failure to bring about a genuine political process" to implement UN Security Council resolution 2254, which was passed in 2015. That laid out a roadmap for peace, with the principle in the text that “the Syrian people will decide the future of Syria”.

The objective was a future shaped by free elections and a new constitution. But that meant Assad and his family giving up a country that they treated for years as their personal fief. More than half a million dead attest to their determination not to let that happen." 

But he refused and decided to stay in power and unleash the full might of his military on his citizens and the civil war started

Then Iran, Russia and Hezbollah intervened and kept him power by helping to defeat the rebels\insurgency\militants\extremists

But he could have avoided all of this 

And yet he has failed to change much in Syria both politically or economically since the civil war ended in most parts of country 

He is truly a reprehensible leader who only cares about one thing, staying in power at the expense of whats best for his country so this latest uprising was almost guaranteed 

I dont think there is an  alliance between Israel and Turkey\rebels  around this latest insurrection but I do think the rebels were motivated by what has happened since 7 October where Israel has vastly weakened and eroded Iran and Hezbollah in the region and they taking advantage of that. Russia is also deeply mired militarily in Ukraine so there additional support is questionable 

Israel's current biggest  security concern would be Iran and its proxies and since Assad is considered a staunch ally of Iran they would support him being overthrown 

And this calculus would be because of 7 October which has obviously had a huge influence around Israel geopolitical views in the ME