Ukraine Conflict - In the grim darkness of the near future, there is only war!

[rjshae]

7 hours ago, BruceVC said:

Im not sure why this is such a terrible peace plan 

Its exactly what has been discussed many times, Russia keeps Crimea and Donbas and Ukraine wont join NATO 

Ukraine keeps 80% of its country and can join the EU when it meets the requirements

It seems the most reasonable suggestion where both sides make compromises

Apart from being completely one-sided, a critical point is that it does nothing to deter another Russian invasion of Ukraine after the Russians have re-armed and rebuilt their forces. Only a NATO alliance or Ukrainian nuclear weapons would provide that.

[Zoraptor]

Not much actual evidence that Russian forces need rebuilding (or at least as compared to Ukrainian forces)- except the enormous ex soviet stockpiles which aren't ever going to be replaced by either side. Even if they did, we've been told multiple times that Russia has the GDP of Italy, and surely the collective west could out produce Italy when it comes to munitions. Saying that Russia can rearm while Ukraine cannot only happens if the west abandons Ukraine or if western aid is significantly less than Russia's output.

12 hours ago, Elerond said:

Really only Ukraine makes compromises

Eh, the compromise Russia makes is ultimately the same one any winner in a war makes- not going for more.

Which will greatly upset those who see it in moral terms since it's the bad guy winning, but this isn't a fairy tale.

[Malcador]

Well not a win in the sense of their initial goal. Funny if they had not bothered with Kiev and just focus on the east in the opening days of the war, probably could have reached this point sooner. 

Bit silly to have US cooperation with Russia as part of the deal though 

[Gorth]

I’m sure I’ve heard this before… a conservative leader talking to a nationalist leader, telling us said leader doesn’t want all of Czechoslovakia, just the Sudetenland, then he’ll be satisfied. Makes me believe Trump has all the political savvy of Neville Chamberlain 

[Elerond]

7 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

Eh, the compromise Russia makes is ultimately the same one any winner in a war makes- not going for more.

Which will greatly upset those who see it in moral terms since it's the bad guy winning, but this isn't a fairy tale.

Not going for more, when battle lines have been about same for year isn't really compromise even for the "winner" as they really don't have resources to go for more.

[Sarex]

6 hours ago, Malcador said:

Well not a win in the sense of their initial goal. Funny if they had not bothered with Kiev and just focus on the east in the opening days of the war, probably could have reached this point sooner.

They thought the Ukrainian people would welcome them as liberators... Their intelligence agency dropped the ball hard there.

[Zoraptor]

1 hour ago, Elerond said:

Not going for more, when battle lines have been about same for year isn't really compromise even for the "winner" as they really don't have resources to go for more.

My weighting is certainly conjectural to a large part, but so is Russia not having the resources to go for more. It seems far more likely that Ukraine will hit its limit first, and once that happens things will go downhill fast. The balance/ compromise for Russia is getting less now against what they'd get when (if) Ukraine collapses and what that would cost them.

Sure, if you believe that Ukraine has only had, what, 41k dead while Russia has had 800k then Russia doesn't have the resources to outlast Ukraine. That is not likely to reflect reality though, and anything even approaching 1:1 favours Russia massively- and for this matter most importantly that gets more so as time goes by.

[kanisatha]

On 4/24/2025 at 5:35 AM, Gorth said:

I wonder if any territorial concessions will encourage Xi to make a grab for Taiwan. If Russia can do, China can do it too

Yes, China can do it too. And Trump is signaling he is okay with Russia taking Ukraine and China taking Taiwan if that also means he can take Greenland and/or the Panama Canal. Trump is essentially creating a 21st C. version of the 19th C. Concert, with the US, Russia, and China as its only members, and where those three states can do whatever they want in the world so long as they consult with each other and don't cross each others' red lines. And all other states are irrelevant. It is classic hardcore realism. As Thucydides once put it, "The strong do what they will; the weak suffer what they must."

Btw, on Taiwan, although China could invade, and still may, I strongly believe they won't -- for this simple reason: China has spent the past few years ramping up its infiltration efforts inside Taiwan. It's strategy is to push in pro-China Taiwanese into positions of power within the Taiwanese government, military, intelligence services, law enforcement, industry, and civil society. This effort is pretty significant, even though no one, including the Taiwanese government, is talking about it publicly. And when the time is right, these infiltrators will launch a coup and overthrow the elected government and set up a Chinese puppet government that will then "invite" China to come in and "save" the Taiwanese people from US/Japan-controlled "splittists." This will all happen lightning fast, and will be all over before whatever governments exist at that time in Washington and other allied capitals can get their heads out of their asses. Classic Sun Tzu: victory without war. Mark my words.

[HoonDing]

I'd like them to take back the Russian Far East

海参崴是中国的!

[Malcador]

https://www.reuters.com/world/ukrainian-european-peace-deal-counterproposals-us-talks-london-2025-04-25/

And this will go nowhere too

[uuuhhii]

what is this pretence that coup is somehow a ground breaking innovation

didn't turkey coup syria less than a year ago