Ukraine Conflict - In the grim darkness of the near future, there is only war!

[rjshae]

7 hours ago, BruceVC said:

Im not sure why this is such a terrible peace plan 

Its exactly what has been discussed many times, Russia keeps Crimea and Donbas and Ukraine wont join NATO 

Ukraine keeps 80% of its country and can join the EU when it meets the requirements

It seems the most reasonable suggestion where both sides make compromises

Apart from being completely one-sided, a critical point is that it does nothing to deter another Russian invasion of Ukraine after the Russians have re-armed and rebuilt their forces. Only a NATO alliance or Ukrainian nuclear weapons would provide that.

[Zoraptor]

Not much actual evidence that Russian forces need rebuilding (or at least as compared to Ukrainian forces)- except the enormous ex soviet stockpiles which aren't ever going to be replaced by either side. Even if they did, we've been told multiple times that Russia has the GDP of Italy, and surely the collective west could out produce Italy when it comes to munitions. Saying that Russia can rearm while Ukraine cannot only happens if the west abandons Ukraine or if western aid is significantly less than Russia's output.

12 hours ago, Elerond said:

Really only Ukraine makes compromises

Eh, the compromise Russia makes is ultimately the same one any winner in a war makes- not going for more.

Which will greatly upset those who see it in moral terms since it's the bad guy winning, but this isn't a fairy tale.

[Malcador]

Well not a win in the sense of their initial goal. Funny if they had not bothered with Kiev and just focus on the east in the opening days of the war, probably could have reached this point sooner. 

Bit silly to have US cooperation with Russia as part of the deal though 

[Gorth]

I’m sure I’ve heard this before… a conservative leader talking to a nationalist leader, telling us said leader doesn’t want all of Czechoslovakia, just the Sudetenland, then he’ll be satisfied. Makes me believe Trump has all the political savvy of Neville Chamberlain 

[Elerond]

7 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

Eh, the compromise Russia makes is ultimately the same one any winner in a war makes- not going for more.

Which will greatly upset those who see it in moral terms since it's the bad guy winning, but this isn't a fairy tale.

Not going for more, when battle lines have been about same for year isn't really compromise even for the "winner" as they really don't have resources to go for more.

[Sarex]

6 hours ago, Malcador said:

Well not a win in the sense of their initial goal. Funny if they had not bothered with Kiev and just focus on the east in the opening days of the war, probably could have reached this point sooner.

They thought the Ukrainian people would welcome them as liberators... Their intelligence agency dropped the ball hard there.

[Zoraptor]

1 hour ago, Elerond said:

Not going for more, when battle lines have been about same for year isn't really compromise even for the "winner" as they really don't have resources to go for more.

My weighting is certainly conjectural to a large part, but so is Russia not having the resources to go for more. It seems far more likely that Ukraine will hit its limit first, and once that happens things will go downhill fast. The balance/ compromise for Russia is getting less now against what they'd get when (if) Ukraine collapses and what that would cost them.

Sure, if you believe that Ukraine has only had, what, 41k dead while Russia has had 800k then Russia doesn't have the resources to outlast Ukraine. That is not likely to reflect reality though, and anything even approaching 1:1 favours Russia massively- and for this matter most importantly that gets more so as time goes by.

[kanisatha]

On 4/24/2025 at 5:35 AM, Gorth said:

I wonder if any territorial concessions will encourage Xi to make a grab for Taiwan. If Russia can do, China can do it too

Yes, China can do it too. And Trump is signaling he is okay with Russia taking Ukraine and China taking Taiwan if that also means he can take Greenland and/or the Panama Canal. Trump is essentially creating a 21st C. version of the 19th C. Concert, with the US, Russia, and China as its only members, and where those three states can do whatever they want in the world so long as they consult with each other and don't cross each others' red lines. And all other states are irrelevant. It is classic hardcore realism. As Thucydides once put it, "The strong do what they will; the weak suffer what they must."

Btw, on Taiwan, although China could invade, and still may, I strongly believe they won't -- for this simple reason: China has spent the past few years ramping up its infiltration efforts inside Taiwan. It's strategy is to push in pro-China Taiwanese into positions of power within the Taiwanese government, military, intelligence services, law enforcement, industry, and civil society. This effort is pretty significant, even though no one, including the Taiwanese government, is talking about it publicly. And when the time is right, these infiltrators will launch a coup and overthrow the elected government and set up a Chinese puppet government that will then "invite" China to come in and "save" the Taiwanese people from US/Japan-controlled "splittists." This will all happen lightning fast, and will be all over before whatever governments exist at that time in Washington and other allied capitals can get their heads out of their asses. Classic Sun Tzu: victory without war. Mark my words.

[HoonDing]

I'd like them to take back the Russian Far East

海参崴是中国的!

[Malcador]

https://www.reuters.com/world/ukrainian-european-peace-deal-counterproposals-us-talks-london-2025-04-25/

And this will go nowhere too

[uuuhhii]

what is this pretence that coup is somehow a ground breaking innovation

didn't turkey coup syria less than a year ago

 

[Malcador]

https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/how-us-ukraine-reconstruction-investment-1746056424.html

According to Svyrydenko, the key provisions of the agreement include:

• Full ownership and control remain with Ukraine.
• Equal partnership.
• National ownership is protected.
• No debts on Ukraine's part.
• Alignment with Ukraine's European integration course.
• The fund will be replenished exclusively from new licenses.
• Only targeted legislative changes.
• The US will help attract additional investments and technologies.
• The agreement provides tax guarantees.

 

[BruceVC]

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/4/30/ukraine-says-it-is-set-to-sign-minerals-deal-with-us 

 

This is huge development and doesn't get the attention for its relevancy around how its in the best interests for Ukraine 

For example once US investment starts there is no chance Russia will ever able to occupy Ukraine entirely

 

" Announcing the agreement, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the creation of the United States-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund was a signal to Russia that the Trump administration was “committed to a peace process centred on a free, sovereign, and prosperous Ukraine over the long term”.

 

“President Trump envisioned this partnership between the American people and the Ukrainian people to show both sides’ commitment to lasting peace and prosperity in Ukraine,” Bessent said in a statement.

 

“And to be clear, no state or person who financed or supplied the Russian war machine will be allowed to benefit from the reconstruction of Ukraine.”

[Malcador]

36 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

For example once US investment starts there is no chance Russia will ever able to occupy Ukraine entirely

Well, unless the US gets the same offer from Russia in this scenario.  But at least no blathering about 350 B in this.  Yet 

[BruceVC]

3 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Well, unless the US gets the same offer from Russia in this scenario.  But at least no blathering about 350 B in this.  Yet 

Russia has already made the US a similar offer

The difference is the US investors will have more influence in the future of this mining than an investment in Russia

It may not seem  like it but this is good news for Ukraine and its future, its better to have greedy Capitalists committed to your country than not at all 

 

[Elerond]

2 hours ago, BruceVC said:

Russia has already made the US a similar offer

The difference is the US investors will have more influence in the future of this mining than an investment in Russia

It may not seem  like it but this is good news for Ukraine and its future, its better to have greedy Capitalists committed to your country than not at all 

 

I am not sure how much people should read in this deal as current peace proposal from US would leave majority (about 70%) of known mineral deposits to territories controlled by Russia.

[BruceVC]

34 minutes ago, Elerond said:

I am not sure how much people should read in this deal as current peace proposal from US would leave majority (about 70%) of known mineral deposits to territories controlled by Russia.

No thats inaccurate, Elerond try not be fooled by fake news and anti-US sentiment around the long-term advantages of this mineral deal

 

Most of the minerals are not in Russian controlled regions, you can see from this map. Just look at the  colour sizes 

 

 

[Zoraptor]

Colour sizes mean 2/3 of sweet fanny adams. It's not an intensity map. For that you want something like this. Though even that only has four levels.

It's always easy to say something and paint it onto a nice raster image for people to Just Believe. Did you know New Zealand has the highest deposits of unobtainium in the known world and so much gold we use it for toilet paper? Would you believe it if I put it into a graphic?

Back in the land of reality though

Quote

World Resources: Owing to continuing exploration, measured and indicated lithium resources have increased substantially worldwide and total about 105 million tons. Measured and indicated lithium resources in the United States—from continental brines, claystone, geothermal brines, hectorite, oilfield brines, and pegmatites—are 14 million tons. Measured and indicated lithium resources in other countries have been revised to 91 million tons. Resources are distributed as follows: Bolivia, 23 million tons; Argentina, 22 million tons; Chile, 11 million tons; Australia, 8.7 million tons; China, 6.8 million tons; Germany, 3.8 million tons; Canada, 3 million tons; Congo (Kinshasa), 3 million tons; Mexico, 1.7 million tons; Czechia, 1.3 million tons; Serbia, 1.2 million tons; Peru, 1 million tons; Russia, 1 million tons; Mali, 890,000 tons; Brazil, 800,000 tons; Zimbabwe, 690,000 tons; Spain, 320,000 tons; Portugal, 270,000 tons; Namibia; 230,000 tons; Ghana, 200,000 tons; Finland, 68,000 tons; Austria, 60,000 tons; and Kazakhstan, 50,000 tons.

from the USGS, 2024.

ctrl f ukraine, no results. This is utterly unsurprising as that graphic is based on 'Ukraine claims'.

No wonder the reserve amounts are, heh, 'classified'. Much like the Rare Earths claimed by Ukraine there's only slightly more evidence they exist than the tooth fairy or Prince Idris Kaore, the temporarily embarrassed Nigerian millionaire who just needs a few hundred to unlock his account.

Edited Thursday at 10:10 AM by Zoraptor

[HoonDing]

Mining is nice, but who's gonna refine it?