Ukraine Conflict - In the grim darkness of the near future, there is only war!

[Bartimaeus]

1 hour ago, Zoraptor said:

Don't know what Macron thought he was doing getting Trump to invite Zelensky to the WH. If you were going to lobby for the meeting you had to make sure it wasn't going to be bilateral at least, so you could try to smooth things over at the first wrinkle. A public bust up was always going to be a very, very real possibility. Zelensky isn't Macron and he isn't Starmer- his normal approach could not be better calculated to annoy someone like Trump and he very publicly said he would keep his normal approach (eg be "very direct"). It's all well and good being true to yourself or whatever platitudes people may trot out; but you should also do what is best for your country when you're its leader* and that isn't getting into a spat with its biggest supporter over the previous three years.  

*And that's whether or not it was a 'planned' ambush. Indeed, it's quite probably worse for Zelensky if it was planned since if it was he ended up giving them exactly what they wanted.

Isn't that exactly what Macron wants, to make clear to the rest of the world (and especially Europe) that the United States is lost to them, will not help if they actually need it? I feel like that's something he's been trying to accomplish for years at this point, even during the Biden administration. Felt like that was a pretty good demonstration.

[Malcador]

Shame Trump babbling like a dementia case won't hurt him an iota.  Poor preparation by Zelensky and his team, should have told him to hold his tongue regardless of whatever nonsense the muppet Vance said.  Seems like confusion on two parts there, at least reviewing the transcript.  Vance goes on some unprompted ass kissing speech, Zelensky is arguing that diplomacy with Putin is pointless and then Vance gets stroppy.

Maybe Zelensky was in a bad mood to begin with, some random journo was on his case for not wearing a suit, heh, 

And a start - https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/state-department-terminates-us-support-ukraine-energy-grid-restoration-rcna194259

  

15 minutes ago, Bartimaeus said:

Isn't that exactly what Macron wants, to make clear to the rest of the world (and especially Europe) that the United States is lost to them, will not help if they actually need it? I feel like that's something he's been trying to accomplish for years at this point, even during the Biden administration. Felt like that was a pretty good demonstration.

Seems a bit extreme a scheme to pull off.  Maybe Macron just foolishly thought it'd go smoothly

 

Edited Saturday at 01:39 AM by Malcador

[Zoraptor]

Don't know if it was poor prep or a (bad) plan. Zelensky must have- must have- been told how best to handle Trump. The reactions of the Ukrainian ambassador weren't exactly subtle as things were going downhill. 

Even if he wasn't it's not exactly rocket surgery: massage the guy's ego and talk about how ready for a deal you are in general terms. Normally you might blame Trump more but... you kind of have to deal with reality, even if you don't like it and the reality is that Trump is Trump. Zelensky behaved exactly as he said he would before the meeting and Trump reacted exactly as you'd expect. If anything it took him longer than you might expect given it was ~50 minutes and things only blew up in the last 10.

32 minutes ago, Bartimaeus said:

Isn't that exactly what Macron wants, to make clear to the rest of the world (and especially Europe) that the United States is lost to them, will not help if they actually need it? I feel like that's something he's been trying to accomplish for years at this point, even during the Biden administration. Felt like that was a pretty good demonstration.

Dunno, I'm fairly cynical by nature especially when it comes to geopolitics and I find it difficult to believe that was what Macron wanted- too much risk of a permanent break occurring, and Macron talks a good talk* but is inherently risk averse.

Might make sense if he's already written Ukraine off as a lost cause, but I can't really see that.

*one of the funnier things is reading breathless headlines like "Macron to send troops to Ukraine!!!" and checking the context to find that he actually said he'd send troops, if there was a ceasefire and international agreement accepting them. So, not sending them any time soon in other words. Also stuff like planning to spend 5% of GDP on defence; easy for him to say, but Not Going to Happen.

Edited Saturday at 01:55 AM by Zoraptor

[Malcador]

 

 

[BruceVC]

3 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

Don't know if it was poor prep or a (bad) plan. Zelensky must have- must have- been told how best to handle Trump. The reactions of the Ukrainian ambassador weren't exactly subtle as things were going downhill. 

Even if he wasn't it's not exactly rocket surgery: massage the guy's ego and talk about how ready for a deal you are in general terms. Normally you might blame Trump more but... you kind of have to deal with reality, even if you don't like it and the reality is that Trump is Trump. Zelensky behaved exactly as he said he would before the meeting and Trump reacted exactly as you'd expect. If anything it took him longer than you might expect given it was ~50 minutes and things only blew up in the last 10.

Dunno, I'm fairly cynical by nature especially when it comes to geopolitics and I find it difficult to believe that was what Macron wanted- too much risk of a permanent break occurring, and Macron talks a good talk* but is inherently risk averse.

Might make sense if he's already written Ukraine off as a lost cause, but I can't really see that.

*one of the funnier things is reading breathless headlines like "Macron to send troops to Ukraine!!!" and checking the context to find that he actually said he'd send troops, if there was a ceasefire and international agreement accepting them. So, not sending them any time soon in other words. Also stuff like planning to spend 5% of GDP on defence; easy for him to say, but Not Going to Happen.

It definitely wasnt what Macron wanted, EU leaders would have wanted Trump and Zelensky to get on and find agreement 

The main reason the meeting failed was that no one had prepared Zelensky for how to engage with Trump, there is well known strategy on how you engage with Trump and Zelensky was clearly not aware of this 

Then translation was a problem when  Zelensky tried to explain certain things 

Personally I think its a huge mistake for Ukraine to not take the mineral deal, they have more chance of finding a peace deal with Russia with this  type of US investment than alienating the US now 

I hear lots of EU countries saying  " we stand by Ukraine " but are they going to continue to fund Ukraine in the same way as the US was?

And then I also dont think there is any military solution for Ukraine and the best way forward for Ukraine is to accept its lost the  illegally  annexed regions and agree to not join NATO 

But now the war will drag on

This was a lost opportunity for Ukraine to preserve most of its country and end the war 

 

 

 

Edited Saturday at 05:34 AM by BruceVC

[Elerond]

7 hours ago, Malcador said:

Maybe Zelensky was in a bad mood to begin with, some random journo was on his case for not wearing a suit, heh, 

He was not random reporter but MAGA superstar Marjorie Taylor Greene's boyfriend and MAGA insider. So he was there to do MAGA team's bidding.

It was also interesting how also TASS's reporter was allowed in the Oval room, when so many other reporter got denied. But maybe it isn't that surprising when taking in account that Trump gave speech how badly and unfairly US press write about Putin during his first term.

[Elerond]

3 hours ago, BruceVC said:

Personally I think its a huge mistake for Ukraine to not take the mineral deal, they have more chance of finding a peace deal with Russia with this  type of US investment than alienating the US now 

Zelensky was there to sign it but for some reason he was forced to ensure humiliation ritual anticipatory press meeting where people usually shortly tell what they except from that days discussions. But Trump for some reason made that event much longer than it usually is, take his time to praise Putin, which is quite rude considering that he was meeting president of country that Putin has invaded, then his ally in press score asks why Zelensky disrespects US by not fearing suite and Vance praises Russia's diplomacy, in which Zelensky maybe unwisely comments what kind of diplomacy Vance is speaking, which lead Vance and Trump shouting Zelensky how ungrateful he is. Even after that Zelensky was willing to sign the mineral deal, but Trump kicked him out.

So there was no deal to be made, this was show to Trump supporters to put blame on Zelensky for his failure to make peace in Ukraine as soon as he become president which he said he will do during his campaign. So Zelensky had already lost US when Trump was elected, there was nothing that he could really have done but surrendered to please Trump, but even that option would have alienated US. 

Quote

I hear lots of EU countries saying  " we stand by Ukraine " but are they going to continue to fund Ukraine in the same way as the US was?

EU already has funded Ukraine more than US (132.3 billion euros vs 114.2 billion euros) has, and even in military aid they are about equal (62 billion euros vs 64 billion euros). EU can double the support easily if they want considering that it is less than 1% of their GDP, it is more about question how difficult is to do because EU has members that support Russia and who are now empowered by USA to block all support for Ukraine.

Edited Saturday at 09:10 AM by Elerond

[uuuhhii]

seem to be the munich conference strategy

less convincing this time

[Lexx]

This white house crap convinced me to finally donate to the ukraine defense fund. Might turn this into a monthly donation.

[Malcador]

6 hours ago, Elerond said:

He was not random reporter but MAGA superstar Marjorie Taylor Greene's boyfriend and MAGA insider. So he was there to do MAGA team's bidding.

It was also interesting how also TASS's reporter was allowed in the Oval room, when so many other reporter got denied. But maybe it isn't that surprising when taking in account that Trump gave speech how badly and unfairly US press write about Putin during his first term.

Apparently Trump was also irked by his attire. Guess it doesn't matter when it's Musk.  Being MTG's boyfriend still doesn't elevate him from rando.

10 hours ago, BruceVC said:

The main reason the meeting failed was that no one had prepared Zelensky for how to engage with Trump, there is well known strategy on how you engage with Trump and Zelensky was clearly not aware of this 

Then translation was a problem when  Zelensky tried to explain certain things 

Language seemed to be the issue. I am still puzzled where the disrespect in Zelensky's part is, well unless Vance was sticking up for Putin.  Getting a kick out of people thanking Trump for defending the US though.

Ukraine really needs one good diplomat, they've always had ones saying stupid crap, like Melnyk. I believe Yelnak was the guy behind this meeting as well, apparently Kellogg disagrees (source is NYP though...)

 

Edited Saturday at 03:43 PM by Malcador

[HoonDing]

I'd rather be Ukrainian than a Republican.

[BruceVC]

34 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Apparently Trump was also irked by his attire. Guess it doesn't matter when it's Musk.  Being MTG's boyfriend still doesn't elevate him from rando.

Language seemed to be the issue. I am still puzzled where the disrespect in Zelensky's part is, well unless Vance was sticking up for Putin.  Getting a kick out of people thanking Trump for defending the US though.

Ukraine really needs one good diplomat, they've always had ones saying stupid crap, like Melnyk. I believe Yelnak was the guy behind this meeting as well, apparently Kellogg disagrees (source is NYP though...)

 

Yes the whole " disrespect " point is exaggerated  

Part of it is because Zelensky  wasnt wearing a suit and then he referred to  Vance as JD instead of vice-president and then he didnt thank the US enough for previous aid but none of this was intentional or deliberate disrespect 

But English translation was the biggest misunderstanding, he should have used a translator and hopefully if he goes  back he will 

 

 

[Also gorgon]

It seemed intentional, like Zelinskyy was supposed to buckle because Trump figured it would be way easier than getting Putin to move.   Trump overestimated his leverage and now he just looks like a fool who  isn't qualified for these types of negotiations.   

 

 

[Lexx]

He looks like a fool to us. MAGAs are eating it up and talk about how "real" it was, etc.

[Elerond]

3 hours ago, Malcador said:

Being MTG's boyfriend still doesn't elevate him from rando.

I meant with that his questions come from White House, instead being actually journalistic questions. So when he questioned Zelensky about his attire, that question come from Trump and co, instead being some silly question from random journalist 

[Zoraptor]

11 hours ago, Elerond said:

Zelensky was there to sign it but for some reason he was forced to ensure humiliation ritual anticipatory press meeting..

Forced? 

Doesn't seem like Zelensky was marched in at gunpoint. He could have said no to the press conference- it would hardly have turned out worse. He could have grinned and borne it instead of reacting. He could have decided to have someone else there as well, or to use translators to slow things down, or to try and wind things up. 

Once again, Zelensky said that was going to be his approach beforehand, and Trump reacted exactly as you'd expect him to. Can anyone actually say that they thought a "very direct" approach to Donald Trump was a good idea?

They'd done the hard work by making the minerals agreement utterly nebulous, he only had to make it through the signing

It's all very well talking about ambushes and humiliation and implying that Zelensky was brave and stuck to his guns or whatever but that ignores that Ukraine needs the US while the US does not need Ukraine. Doesn't matter if that is an unpalatable fact, it is a fact.

[Elerond]

21 minutes ago, Zoraptor said:

Forced? 

Forced in sense that it was really his only option to speak with Trump and co about US security guarantees. So his options were to fail or try to play Trump's games. Considering high price of failure in this case it is bit disingenuous say that he had option to say no.

[Lexx]

Am I the only one who finds it weird how they are trying to force a minerals deal *now*? It's not like America can do anything with that at this point anyways.... or before the war ends. Russia is occupying most of the interesting mineral rich lands, so even if a contract would have been singed today... it pretty much means nothing for now or the next 10 years? You'd have to get rid of Russia first. So what's the angle here? Russia is about to implode, which means America has to force their hands now? Or does Trump think he can force a contract, then force peace with Russia, and then just let American companies go into the occupied territories and start working?

None of this makes sense to me. Trump keeps yapping about Zelensky not wanting to make peace... does that mean behind closed doors, everything is already settled between America and Russia? Are they going to share profits until Russia can claim the rest of Ukraine in a few years?

/Edit: I forgot that Ukraine is supposed to pay America. So basically, "make peace now" which means to concede all lost territories, reduce military strength, since that's what Russia wants, and then pay an impossible amount of money to America, which additionally bleeds out the country... probably creates social unrest... and then Russia can step in again with their political puppets in a couple years. Ez?

Edited Saturday at 09:43 PM by Lexx

[pmp10]

37 minutes ago, Elerond said:

Forced in sense that it was really his only option to speak with Trump and co about US security guarantees. 

The thing is Ukraine is never getting official security guarantees.
It's still not clear if they refuse to believe that or think it a very high value negotiating point. 

Edited Saturday at 09:42 PM by pmp10

[Malcador]

Wonder if the minerals are actually there.

Edited Saturday at 10:05 PM by Malcador

[Zoraptor]

Ukraine has no proven exploitable Rare Earth deposits, though they have a lot of other stuff. The closest is Tantalum and Niobium, neither of which are capital letter Rare Earths, and neither is economically exploitable. And we're speaking relatively tiny amounts like 300mn USD of Niobioum. 

Which is a shame in some ways since they're what you get from coltan which is one of the minerals being fought over in Congo.

4 minutes ago, Lexx said:

Am I the only one who finds it weird how they are trying to force a minerals deal *now*?

It's pretty much entirely so Trump can say he's getting a win and 'value' for US taxpayers. You can read the deal's text in various places: 'concept of a deal' is not much of an exaggeration, at all, and it's clearly designed solely to get signed rather than achieve anything. Which would have been a win for both sides. Trump could even have kept up the aid under the pretense that it was all going to be paid back

It doesn't make any sense, except in the context of Trump being Trump. Which is unfortunate, but not much anyone can do about it.

40 minutes ago, Elerond said:

Forced in sense that it was really his only option to speak with Trump and co about US security guarantees. So his options were to fail or try to play Trump's games. Considering high price of failure in this case it is bit disingenuous say that he had option to say no.

It's hindsight* more than being disingenuous. We know what actually happened, and that just about any other option could have turned out better than what we got. I wouldn't necessarily have advocated for it and most of the other suggestions were ones I would personally have advocated for first.

It may just be a problem with two non politicians meeting but it has also been an issue for Ukraine in general. They've picked unnecessary diplomatic fights with Poland, India, China, Africa and have had a distinct tendency towards maximalist demands even when it was clearly not the best approach.

*not entirely so though given how Zelensky said he was going to approach things.

[BruceVC]

9 hours ago, Lexx said:

Am I the only one who finds it weird how they are trying to force a minerals deal *now*? It's not like America can do anything with that at this point anyways.... or before the war ends. Russia is occupying most of the interesting mineral rich lands, so even if a contract would have been singed today... it pretty much means nothing for now or the next 10 years? You'd have to get rid of Russia first. So what's the angle here? Russia is about to implode, which means America has to force their hands now? Or does Trump think he can force a contract, then force peace with Russia, and then just let American companies go into the occupied territories and start working?

None of this makes sense to me. Trump keeps yapping about Zelensky not wanting to make peace... does that mean behind closed doors, everything is already settled between America and Russia? Are they going to share profits until Russia can claim the rest of Ukraine in a few years?

/Edit: I forgot that Ukraine is supposed to pay America. So basically, "make peace now" which means to concede all lost territories, reduce military strength, since that's what Russia wants, and then pay an impossible amount of money to America, which additionally bleeds out the country... probably creates social unrest... and then Russia can step in again with their political puppets in a couple years. Ez?

There is lots of misinformation about the mineral deal, one of these points is " all the minerals are in Russian controlled areas "

Thats not true, you can see from this map where the mineral deposits are.

"Ukraine doesn’t have globally significant reserves of rare earth minerals, but it does have some of the world’s largest deposits of graphite, lithium, titanium, beryllium and uranium, all of which are classed by the US as critical minerals." 

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/02/26/europe/ukraine-us-mineral-resources-deal-explained-intl-latam/index.html

 

Its very normal for most  large countries to want to  gain access to rare or critical minerals, China now has the biggest mining footprint in Africa. So it shouldnt be a surprise to see the US wanting to gain access to these Ukrainian minerals and to have joint development of these resources

But the issue is the last audit of Ukrainian minerals was done by the Soviets so it may  not be accurate and then these mining resources need the investment but thats also normal

You can also end up finding new deposits that you were not aware of, this happens all the time in mineral rich countries. Recently in 2023 a new Copper vein was found in the DRC by an established mining company

https://www.mining.com/ivanhoe-mines-makes-new-copper-discovery-in-drc-similar-to-kakula/

"Ivanhoe Mines (TSX: IVN) announced on Tuesday that geologists made a significant high-grade copper discovery in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) similar to the massive orebody it is mining at the Kamoa-Kakula copper complex. The discovery, named Kitoko — meaning “beautiful” or “gift” in several local languages — was made on Ivanhoe’s recently acquired joint venture licences in the Western Foreland, about 25 km west of the ultra-high-grade to Kamoa-Kakula mine. " 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited Sunday at 07:29 AM by BruceVC

[Sarex]

 

[Lexx]

That's my feelings.  

https://packaged-media.redd.it/dkohyi3xz1me1/pb/m2-res_480p.mp4?m=DASHPlaylist.mpd&v=1&e=1740927600&s=b92298d0eebc42f701c1a15367c00061d13d8e23

[Malcador]

4 hours ago, Sarex said:

 

Well he's right at least about the EU should make their own talks with Russia.  That might be pretty productive, I am still unsure if Putin is insane enough to attack them and they don't seem to care about Ukraine in the EU.