Ukraine Conflict - continuing

[kanisatha]

16 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

Part from an interview with Russian/Russian Speaking Economist Igor Lipsits, currently living in Lithuania.

What Russia is basically doing is plundering from their future to prop up their present. Western welfare societies pretty much do the same thing, but just not in as draconian a way as what Russia is doing right now.

[Zoraptor]

We've been hearing about the imminent implosion of the Russian economy for 10 years, and the Chinese for 20. It's the geopolitical equivalent of fusion energy; always imminent, will probably happen at some point, but has never actually arrived.

Looks like the Russians may have lost a Su-57 to a drone strike which would be hilariously incompetent. It's at least damaged according to Fighterbomber, and since he has to be a bit careful with his wording it seems likely it's going to be irrecoverable. Either way, still moronic.

[xzar_monty]

Italy is also, in the eyes of many Europeans, in a state of almost constant crisis and likely to collapse but never actually has.

I wonder if that drone strike on the Su-57 ranks pretty high on the list of "let's do some really expensive damage with this dirt cheap toy".

[BruceVC]

8 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

We've been hearing about the imminent implosion of the Russian economy for 10 years, and the Chinese for 20. It's the geopolitical equivalent of fusion energy; always imminent, will probably happen at some point, but has never actually arrived.

 

Sure thats true but nothing like the exaggerated and fake news around the collapse of the US economy, thats been going on for much longer than views on the  imminent collapse of the Russian or Chinese economies  

There is basically  trenchant  and well established weekly examples of "de-dollarization " and " BRICS Currency " and its driven by anti-Capitalist\West  institutions and Russian propaganda troll farms. I met someone on Codex who  works for a Russian troll farm and its fascinating how the datamining works and how they propagate  Russian propaganda. Its very crude but still interesting 

But all this interpretation of any economy data is more or less the same, some of it is true and some of  it is misrepresented or not relevant compared to something else 

Russia does classify much economic data so its almost impossible to get the accurate economic picture 

 

 

 

 

[Mamoulian War]

According to the interview on June 5th 2024, Putin has indirectly said, they are suffering 5000 KIA per month. During 27 months of the war, this means 135000 fatalities. Which is in other words pretty much in alignment with the 500k casualties presented by various western/UA intelligence groups.

 

math behind the 5k/month number can be found here (the plausibility is as always anyone’s guess )

 

[pmp10]

The US-Ukraine security deal is about to be signed at G7.
It seems that after one year of negotiations US is finally ready to commit to high level consultations in case of another invasion.

These used to be called 'security guarantees' a year ago. 

[Mamoulian War]

3 hours ago, pmp10 said:

The US-Ukraine security deal is about to be signed at G7.
It seems that after one year of negotiations US is finally ready to commit to high level consultations in case of another invasion.

These used to be called 'security guarantees' a year ago. 

Unfortunately it will be in the form, which can be cancelled if the new president of USA decides so.

 

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/06/13/7460543/

 

 

[HoonDing]

It'll be torn up in November.

[Malcador]

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240613-g7-leaders-to-50-billion-ukraine-loan-backed-by-russia-s-frozen-assets

Guess they got over their issues earlier from https://www.politico.eu/article/us-eu-war-in-ukraine-loan-russian-assets-negotiations-g7-us-election-western-support-joe-biden-olaf-scholz-emmanuel-macron/

 

[Mamoulian War]

USD and EUR stopped trading at Moscow Exchange, after Russian Central Bank intervention, after newest sanctions, which led to spiraling out of control as panic buying started. Both currencies are currently sold for up to 200 rubles per 1 USD/EUR.

 

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20240613-russian-stock-market-suspends-dollar-trades-after-us-sanctions

[BruceVC]

17 hours ago, Malcador said:

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240613-g7-leaders-to-50-billion-ukraine-loan-backed-by-russia-s-frozen-assets

Guess they got over their issues earlier from https://www.politico.eu/article/us-eu-war-in-ukraine-loan-russian-assets-negotiations-g7-us-election-western-support-joe-biden-olaf-scholz-emmanuel-macron/

 

This is something I have been advocating for since the invasion in 2022 when the Russian assets were originally frozen, use the Russian sanctioned resources to fund Ukraine in  its defence against the invasion

Russia has nationalized Western investments so its not like there isnt precedent 

The legitimate concern was always " but this might create uncertainty in investing in the West " but thats going to happen or not happen irrespective of this decision and thats fine. Investors will always decide for themselves who offers the lowest risk and best return on investments

And Im not concerned its going to have make a major difference if you think the Russian assets were frozen over 2 years ago and the US stock markets still see  new records being broken for investment appetite 

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/dow-jones-hits-record-high-40000-points

 

 

 

 

 

 

[HoonDing]

They can always just sell more oil.

[Mamoulian War]

Unfortunately the Russian citizens are out of money to buy more of it

[BruceVC]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-pledges-a-cease-fire-in-ukraine-if-kyiv-withdraws-from-occupied-regions-and-drops-nato-bid/ar-BB1odPGs

I am not sure how updated  this is or  accurate but it seems to be?

Putin is prepared to end the invasion of Ukraine and has a list of demands that include giving up the Donbas and NATO aspirations and then " demands for peace that the Russian leader listed included Ukraine's non-nuclear status, restrictions on its military force and protecting the interests of the Russian-speaking population in the country. All of these should become part of “fundamental international agreements,” and all Western sanctions against Russia should be lifted, Putin said " 

 

 

Edited June 14 by BruceVC

[Lexx]

This crap again? It'll take a month and russians will be shooting at Ukraine once more. Waste of time.

[Gorth]

I know, BBC is BBC and not necessarily correct etc., but at least I thought it worth raising an eyebrow when they claim Russia's economy is doing better than Western economies atm... 3.2% annual growth as of June 2024

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4nn7pej9jyo

 

I can remember Western officials and commentators describing the sanctions as “crippling”, “debilitating” and “unprecedented”. With adjectives like these filling the airwaves, the situation seemed clear. There was surely no way that Russia’s economy would withstand the pressures.

Faced with the prospect of economic collapse, the Kremlin would be forced to back down and withdraw its troops. Wouldn’t it?

Twenty-seven months on, the war rages on. Far from being crippled, Russia’s economy is growing. The International Monetary Fund predicts that Russia will record economic growth of 3.2% this year. Caveats aside, that’s still more than in any of the world’s advanced economies.

 

It runs counter to most things I hear online

[BruceVC]

1 hour ago, Gorth said:

I know, BBC is BBC and not necessarily correct etc., but at least I thought it worth raising an eyebrow when they claim Russia's economy is doing better than Western economies atm... 3.2% annual growth as of June 2024

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4nn7pej9jyo

 

I can remember Western officials and commentators describing the sanctions as “crippling”, “debilitating” and “unprecedented”. With adjectives like these filling the airwaves, the situation seemed clear. There was surely no way that Russia’s economy would withstand the pressures.

Faced with the prospect of economic collapse, the Kremlin would be forced to back down and withdraw its troops. Wouldn’t it?

Twenty-seven months on, the war rages on. Far from being crippled, Russia’s economy is growing. The International Monetary Fund predicts that Russia will record economic growth of 3.2% this year. Caveats aside, that’s still more than in any of the world’s advanced economies.

 

It runs counter to most things I hear online

It  depends what you mean by online?  I  generally dont take  anything seriously I  read  on  SM around topics  like economics   or politics. And economic predictions are  often notoriously proven to be untrue because of the different ways you can measure an economy  

But BBC is a  good source  of information and  I consider  them generally credible

The article  seems  accurate  but there  are  few  considerations,  most Russian economic  data is classified and then growth is relative  to GDP size  

The UK for example is  the 6th strongest economy in the world with  nominal GDP of  $3.5 trillion and Russia is the 12th strongest with nominal GDP of $2.1 trillion.

https://www.forbesindia.com/article/explainers/top-10-largest-economies-in-the-world/86159/1

So growth matters  but other metrics are  equally   important to understand overall   economic  strength. The entire  African economy is a $3  trillion economy, I find this type of data  in the link below really interesting when you looking at  economic strength and growth.  For example if South Africa somehow gets  a  20%  growth thats  $80 billion,  which means our economy would become  $480  billion.  So  its possible  to  think  "South Africa  is doing better  than the UK because of its 20% growth "but the UK is a $3.5 trillion economy "  

 

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/breaking-down-african-economy-by-country/

So  GDP growth matters  but its relevant to the size of the  economy 

 

 

 

 

 

[pmp10]

4 hours ago, BruceVC said:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-pledges-a-cease-fire-in-ukraine-if-kyiv-withdraws-from-occupied-regions-and-drops-nato-bid/ar-BB1odPGs

I am not sure how updated  this is or  accurate but it seems to be?

Putin is prepared to end the invasion of Ukraine and has a list of demands that include giving up the Donbas and NATO aspirations and then " demands for peace that the Russian leader listed included Ukraine's non-nuclear status, restrictions on its military force and protecting the interests of the Russian-speaking population in the country. All of these should become part of “fundamental international agreements,” and all Western sanctions against Russia should be lifted, Putin said " 

There was more to it then that.
He also wants remainder of Zaporizhzhia and whole of Kherson before talks even start.
It's likely a response to the Ukrainian summit in Switzerland, but even so he clearly he has no problem with a long war. 

[kanisatha]

7 hours ago, BruceVC said:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-pledges-a-cease-fire-in-ukraine-if-kyiv-withdraws-from-occupied-regions-and-drops-nato-bid/ar-BB1odPGs

I am not sure how updated  this is or  accurate but it seems to be?

Putin is prepared to end the invasion of Ukraine and has a list of demands that include giving up the Donbas and NATO aspirations and then " demands for peace that the Russian leader listed included Ukraine's non-nuclear status, restrictions on its military force and protecting the interests of the Russian-speaking population in the country. All of these should become part of “fundamental international agreements,” and all Western sanctions against Russia should be lifted, Putin said "

Putin couldn't get the Ukrainians to surrender on the battlefield so he's demanding they surrender at the negotiations table? What an ass. LOL

[Zoraptor]

8 hours ago, Gorth said:

It runs counter to most things I hear online

It's not exactly surprising. If you go from importing 90% of your cars to making 90% of them yourself (specific figures made up) it's theoretically great for your economy which is why 'bringing the jobs home' is an attractive election slogan. Making lots of weapons is great for your economy too, hence why everyone is so keen to make and sell them. Russia has a lot of specific advantages that mean it cannot be smothered economically around producing almost all the raw materials it needs itself; sanctions encourage them and in some cases require them not to export as much and to make more value added stuff at home. They also have the advantage of having had obvious western enmity for years and learning from the like of Iran in how to cope. End of the day sanctions don't really do anything apart from being an annoyance, if they worked North Korea and Cuba would be obedient US clients and they aren't.

(Nominal gdp figures are rubbish anyway. If Britain made and sold Big Macs at a million dollars a pop and sold precisely two of them it would be better for its GDP than Russia selling 1.8 million at a dollar each, and it would look like Britain was doing even better if they stuck prices up 25% and still sold the same two big macs. Practically the 1.8 million Russians are doing better though; hence the use of Purchase Price Parity GDP where Russia is ahead of the UK and 4th overall per the new data (currently 6th on wikipedia's list). Of course, for most actual people the relevant measure is GDP PPP per capita...)

Edited June 14 by Zoraptor

[Gorth]

7 hours ago, kanisatha said:

Putin couldn't get the Ukrainians to surrender on the battlefield so he's demanding they surrender at the negotiations table? What an ass. LOL

Never underestimate the (domestic) propaganda value of such things. We offered them peace, they rejected it, what are we gonna do? Fight to the bitter end!

[Gorgon]

18 hours ago, kanisatha said:

Putin couldn't get the Ukrainians to surrender on the battlefield so he's demanding they surrender at the negotiations table? What an ass. LOL

Well, NATO membership isn't strictly necessary, key countries could sign defense pacts with Ukraine and it would have more or less the same effect.  It's not a bad thing to hear Putin talk about the possibility of peace.  No doubt the key motive here is to further existing disagreements between Ukraine's NATO backers, but he still said it. That moves it closer to being a reality.

We should really try to avoid this dragging on for another 10 years. 

 

[CopingMarlinsFan]

2 minutes ago, Gorgon said:

Well, NATO membership isn't strictly necessary, key countries could sign defense pacts with Ukraine and it would have more or less the same effect.  It's not a bad thing to hear Putin talk about the possibility of peace.  No doubt the key motive here is to further existing disagreements between Ukraine's NATO backers, but he still said it. That moves it closer to being a reality.

We should really try to avoid this dragging on for another 10 years. 

 

Correct, I think it also has a lot to do with just what parts of Ukraine Russia is wanting to annex. The Donbas is the Eastern European Ruhr in a way and Ukraine is a big country and very much the bread basket. So it's a tough balance, I don't think anybody wants it to last a decade. However Ukraine has objectively a lot more to lose.

[Malcador]

19 hours ago, kanisatha said:

Putin couldn't get the Ukrainians to surrender on the battlefield so he's demanding they surrender at the negotiations table? What an ass. LOL

Could say the same for Zelensky's proposals for peace, basically outlines total victory.  At least everyone gets a nice trip to Switzerland.

43 minutes ago, Gorgon said:

We should really try to avoid this dragging on for another 10 years. 

Doubt either side can sustain it that long, Russia equipment wise and economic, and Ukraine manpower wise.  Both of these countries are screwed for a long time, but Ukraine will be a welfare recipient I guess

[Zoraptor]

More like indentured servant/ serf than welfare recipient. An awful lot of western 'aid' is in the form of loans after all, not actual aid.

7 hours ago, Gorgon said:

Well, NATO membership isn't strictly necessary, key countries could sign defense pacts with Ukraine and it would have more or less the same effect.  It's not a bad thing to hear Putin talk about the possibility of peace.  No doubt the key motive here is to further existing disagreements between Ukraine's NATO backers, but he still said it. That moves it closer to being a reality.

Just talking about peace doesn't really do anything if the talk isn't realistic- and the talk was a lot more realistic 2 years ago from both sides, before Boris Johnson got involved. They spent 20 years talking peace in Afghanistan or Vietnam and in the end victory was made by facts on the ground and that despite actually having peace agreements there; and well, Palestine has had the odd talk about peace over the years.

For as much as people think drop feeding military aid/'aid' to Ukraine is about boiling frogging Russia it's also very much about doing the same to Ukraine. Just one more wunderwaffe and you'll be at the doors of Moscow, keep fighting; they're out of [equipment type] now, keep fighting etc...

Edited June 15 by Zoraptor