The All Things Political Topic - A conservative is someone who makes no changes and consults his grandmother when in doubt

[Zoraptor]

Haha, watching Frank Gardiner squirm this year has been hilarious. One certainly needs reminding that the true tragedy of Gaza is that it distracts people from Russia 'carpet bombing' Aleppo 7 years ago...

57 minutes ago, uuuhhii said:

so us and uk are sinking ship to protect their little middle eastern colony

pathetic

It's going to be funny (well, 'funny') when the Houthis start using drone speedboats to hit their targets instead of trying to hijack them.

[BruceVC]

7 hours ago, uuuhhii said:

so us and uk are sinking ship to protect their little middle eastern colony

pathetic

You joking right? The Red Sea is an important  global freight transportation route and who are the Houthis to decide  what ships can use it? And apparently they not attacking Russian or Chinese ships.   Its long overdue what the US did and hopefully they continue to   protect the Red Sea  

Much of the world  doesn't care about conflicts  in the ME  so why should there economies be impacted by whats happening in Gaza?

I didnt  think I would find anyone who  would defend the obvious criminality and opportunism of groups like the Houthis?

 

[Keyrock]

Joe Biden has the lowest year end approval rating of any incumbent first term president heading into an election year ever. 

Make of that what you will.

[Lexx]

I wouldn't make of it anything, since those estimations are often useless and mean nothing at all? Highly depends on the kind of people they asked.

[Zoraptor]

Gallup is a reputable pollster, it will be an accurate representation of opinion* normalised/ weighted for age, sex, income, location etc. For a reputable pollster getting those things right is the entirety of their reputation, and there won't be leading questions and the like involved.

Whether it necessarily means anything for voting is questionable though, since Biden/ Trump would be massively polarising and obviously Obama won despite his low rating (and Trump lost despite being higher). There's a better than decent chance that a lot of those who think Biden is doing an awful job think Trump would do an even worse one so will hold their nose to vote for him anyway.

*taking into account the margin of error (+/-4) and with a 95% confidence interval.

[Keyrock]

The biggest thing I take away from that Gallup poll is the impact of Super PACs. There used to be a $2500 limit for any single individual to contribute to a PAC (Political Action Committee), in 2010 the courts struck that limit down and the Super PAC was born. Now ludicrously wealthy individuals, your George Soros types, could have MUCH larger impacts on elections because career politicians will appeal to those that are most responsible for funding their election campaigns. That's why I believe there is such a stark difference in approval ratings pre-2010 and post-2010, because post-2010 career politicians focused on satisfying their ultra wealthy Super PAC donors, rather than the population as a whole. The Trump approval rating is a bit misleading because that poll happened before COVID and COVID, obviously, changed everything.

[BruceVC]

7 hours ago, Keyrock said:

Joe Biden has the lowest year end approval rating of any incumbent first term president heading into an election year ever. 

Make of that what you will.

I can believe this.  Biden is polling very low on most polls and Trump is  ahead of him on several  metrics 

But these  polls never include the undecided voters and they  literally decide  1-3 weeks before any US election and since both candidates, Trump and Biden,  are so disliked at the moment by this group its  almost impossible to using polling data now  to  understand next years election

I realize approval  rating is different to  " who will  you vote for   " but the point about undecided voters  is the same. And apparently 25% of   eligible voters in the US are   undecided\persuadable ...its not normally this high and sits on 10-15%

https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/election-2024-poll-voters-trump-biden-5f5dfc93

 

 

 

[xzar_monty]

6 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

There's a better than decent chance that a lot of those who think Biden is doing an awful job think Trump would do an even worse one so will hold their nose to vote for him anyway.

I think this sentence is a fairly accurate description of how dire the political situation is in the US right now: neither the democratic nor the republican party has been able to put forward a decent candidate that has a chance. Also, it is more than a bit worrying that the US is beginning to look gerontocratic in the same way that the Soviet Union did for decades after Stalin. (This is a strange parallel to Russia that the US seems to have, another one being that apparently most citizens feel they have no way of influencing the politics of their country.)

Previously, I was baffled by how the same people used to appear as candidates for both parties (i.e. the Bushes and the Clintons), but the current situation is not baffling, it's simply bad. It would be good to understand it a lot better. The quality of political debate has also disappeared; it's fascinating to see how civilized, intelligent and articulate people like Nixon or Bush Sr. sound compared to what the US has now.

[Keyrock]

@BruceVCMy theory as to the unusually high undecided percentage is that the choices that people perceive to have are so spectacularly awful. If you subscribe to the view that you only have 2 choices, obviously I don't (look at my sig, I mean the link not the gif of Suzu Suzuki performing a Sky Twister Press), then you are presented with 2 downright despicable candidates. I mean, the term "lesser of 2 evils" gets used a lot but it's especially apt this election. You couldn't get me to vote for either Biden or The Donald unless it was at gunpoint, and even then I might seriously consider saying "pull the trigger, ***hole."

[BruceVC]

1 hour ago, Keyrock said:

@BruceVCMy theory as to the unusually high undecided percentage is that the choices that people perceive to have are so spectacularly awful. If you subscribe to the view that you only have 2 choices, obviously I don't (look at my sig, I mean the link not the gif of Suzu Suzuki performing a Sky Twister Press), then you are presented with 2 downright despicable candidates. I mean, the term "lesser of 2 evils" gets used a lot but it's especially apt this election. You couldn't get me to vote for either Biden or The Donald unless it was at gunpoint, and even then I might seriously consider saying "pull the trigger, ***hole."

I agree , neither  are great  choices  and many Americans share your view 

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

Three months ago I would have said that Biden will probably win despite being unpopular simply because Trump (who will be a nominee barring death) is deeply unpopular outside the MAGA cult. But then there was the Biden response to Israel's bombardment of Gaza, which appears to have torpedoed his support from Muslims and transformed him from a disappointment to "Genocide Joe" among folks who would have grudgingly voted for him to prevent Trump. Right now I'm going to predict that this election is both a repeat of 2016 with 2020's candidates, we'll see an uptick in votes for 3rd parties and the real winner of the plurality being not voting.

Edited January 3 by PK htiw klaw eriF

[Hurlshort]

Are we sure Trump is going to be the candidate, though? I mean, he's not even going to be on the ballot at this point in a number of states. He's not been part of the primary process. The primaries stretch out until July and who knows what will happen before then.

[Keyrock]

7 hours ago, PK htiw klaw eriF said:

Three months ago I would have said that Biden will probably win despite being unpopular simply because Trump (who will be a nominee barring death) is deeply unpopular outside the MAGA cult. But then there was the Biden response to Israel's bombardment of Gaza, which appears to have torpedoed his support from Muslims and transformed him from a disappointment to "Genocide Joe" among folks who would have grudgingly voted for him to prevent Trump. Right now I'm going to predict that this election is both a repeat of 2016 with 2020's candidates, we'll see an uptick in votes for 3rd parties and the real winner of the plurality being not voting.

The ethnic cleansing going on in Gaza, let's just call it what it clearly is, is certainly doing Biden no favors. It's not just muslims either, he's completely lost young people. At this point his support is mainly those 50+, he's lost a lot of people under 50 and the vast majority of people under 40. There's a lot of time between now and November and things can change, but things are headed in the wrong direction for Genocide Joe right now, which, by the way, Bibi is totally fine with, since The Donald is likely to be an even better ally for his purposes.

Looking beyond the scope of just the upcoming presidential election here in Murica, much of the world is turning against Murica, and rightfully so. Kind of hard to claim to be peacekeepers when you repeatedly block ceasefire attempts that the vast majority of other countries are on board with. I mean, you can make the claim, but no one is going to believe you. This is an English speaking forum and most English speaking countries are US allies and likely have similar propaganda, so it can seem like everybody still likes Murica, but there's quite a bit of world outside of English speaking nations and they ain't happy with our recent actions.

Edited January 4 by Keyrock

[Hurlshort]

Ugh, just looked at the polls and it's crazy how Trump pulls in numbers: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

So yeah, I guess it is him.  

[uuuhhii]

40 minutes ago, Hurlshort said:

Are we sure Trump is going to be the candidate, though? I mean, he's not even going to be on the ballot at this point in a number of states. He's not been part of the primary process. The primaries stretch out until July and who knows what will happen before then.

not sure the rest of conservative are willing or capable of containing the cultist anymore

even if conservative decide to go with someone else ego may lead to trump running as independent

[Keyrock]

1 hour ago, Hurlshort said:

Ugh, just looked at the polls and it's crazy how Trump pulls in numbers: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

So yeah, I guess it is him.  

These rulings in Colorado and now Maine will go to the Supreme Court and my guess is they will be struck down, but even if they're not, most likely The Donald will STILL win the primary and be the republican candidate in the general election, that's how strong his cult of personality and his lead in the republican primary are. He's a despicable egotistical megalomaniac, but he's also very charismatic with legitimately good comedic timing. I hate the guy, but I also have to admit that he's a great manipulator. Contrast that with Biden who can barely string together a coherent sentence at this point.

Edited January 4 by Keyrock

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

1 hour ago, Hurlshort said:

Are we sure Trump is going to be the candidate, though? I mean, he's not even going to be on the ballot at this point in a number of states. He's not been part of the primary process. The primaries stretch out until July and who knows what will happen before then.

Maybe not the candidate but even if the GOP pulls some funny business to block him you know that'd he do an independent run out of spite. I've said this a lot, but the only thing that stops Trump from running this year is if he dies....which given his age and health is decently possible.

1 hour ago, Keyrock said:

The ethnic cleansing going on in Gaza, let's just call it what it clearly is, is certainly doing Biden no favors. It's not just muslims either, he's completely lost young people. At this point his support is mainly those 50+, he's lost a lot of people under 50 and the vast majority of people under 40. There's a lot of time between now and November and things can change, but things are headed in the wrong direction for Genocide Joe right now, which, by the way, Bibi is totally fine with, since The Donald is likely to be an even better ally for his purposes.

Oh yeah, I have no doubt that Biden has burned a lot of the zoomers and yunger millennials with his (in effect) uncritical support of Israel's campaign of ethnic cleansing, probably to the point of turning off a sizeable number from the dems period. I mean it's hard to muster support for a guy who didn't do **** about your student loans, wages, healthcare, the environment, etc. but managed to pull billions out of the air and bypassed congress (apparently illegally, for what it's worth) to help kill thousands of children.

On Bibi and Trump, lmao

[BruceVC]

3 hours ago, Keyrock said:

The ethnic cleansing going on in Gaza, let's just call it what it clearly is, is certainly doing Biden no favors. It's not just muslims either, he's completely lost young people. At this point his support is mainly those 50+, he's lost a lot of people under 50 and the vast majority of people under 40. There's a lot of time between now and November and things can change, but things are headed in the wrong direction for Genocide Joe right now, which, by the way, Bibi is totally fine with, since The Donald is likely to be an even better ally for his purposes.

Looking beyond the scope of just the upcoming presidential election here in Murica, much of the world is turning against Murica, and rightfully so. Kind of hard to claim to be peacekeepers when you repeatedly block ceasefire attempts that the vast majority of other countries are on board with. I mean, you can make the claim, but no one is going to believe you. This is an English speaking forum and most English speaking countries are US allies and likely have similar propaganda, so it can seem like everybody still likes Murica, but there's quite a bit of world outside of English speaking nations and they ain't happy with our recent actions.

Well lets hope you wrong about young people and the US Muslim population deciding not to vote for Biden, the whole "  genocide Joe  "  is a ridiculous framing of Bidens\US response to Israel and the 7 October attacks by Hamas. Its  not genocide what is happening in Gaza but whatever you want to call it Biden is not responsible for the actions of Israel or Hamas

So if any Americans decide to vote based on the decades long Israeli vs Palestinian   conflict as more important than domestic issues thats their choice but it will be sad especially if Trump wins because he is much  more " Islamophobic " ,  remember the  Muslim flight  ban from certain countries and Trump will do even less to criticize  Israel or  care  what happens to the Palestinians 

So what I hope is  we dont have to see  months of outrage protests if Trump wins and people  saying " Democracy is dead in the US "  because those  same  people decided not to vote for Biden because of a  conflict outside of the US 

 

 

 

 

 

[HoonDing]

I'm sure Amerikans learnt their lesson and will vote for Kodos this time

[Keyrock]

2 hours ago, BruceVC said:

So what I hope is  we dont have to see  months of outrage protests if Trump wins and people  saying " Democracy is dead in the US "  because those  same  people decided not to vote for Biden because of a  conflict outside of the US 

Wait, are you seriously trying to convince me that a vote for Biden is a vote for democracy?

 

[BruceVC]

5 minutes ago, Keyrock said:

Wait, are you seriously trying to convince me that a vote for Biden is a vote for democracy?

 

A  vote for Trump  or Biden is a vote in a  Democratic system  

Unless  one of them decides  to change what Democracy means, so  I guess the question  is " do you not consider the US to be a Democracy and what does Democracy mean to you "

You can criticize any Democracy  for several reasons but that doesnt mean its not a Democracy.  But yes I do consider the US to be a "Democracy " 

And one of the main reasons for that is political leadership change is determined by how people vote and we see change all the time in the US in the midterm and national elections

Its not like Russia,  China or Belarus where you wont see any political change and you find  the same leaders for  decades 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 4 by BruceVC

[Keyrock]

8 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

so  I guess the question  is " do you not consider the US to be a Democracy

No. I've written about this before, it's an oligarchy with a democracy veneer that's cracked and peeling.

Edited January 4 by Keyrock

[BruceVC]

59 minutes ago, Keyrock said:

No. I've written about this before, it's an oligarchy with a democracy veneer that's cracked and peeling.

Whats your definition of a Democracy, whats an example of another country that is a Democracy and how is that Democracy different to the  US?

You dont have to to  into details,  just high level?

 

[Keyrock]

19 hours ago, BruceVC said:

Whats your definition of a Democracy, whats an example of another country that is a Democracy and how is that Democracy different to the  US?

You dont have to to  into details,  just high level?

 

I've written about this extensively before, I'm not going to do it again. I could link you to my previous posts but I'm lazy so the onus is on you if you want to read that. I will leave you with this: At this point we're up to a handful of states, and counting, that have removed every candidate except Joe Biden for the democratic primary, despite the fact that there are other candidates (namely Marianne Williamson). What they are telling us is "you can vote for anyone you want, so long as that 'anyone' is Joe Biden." Maybe that sounds like a democratic process to you, it sure doesn't to me. In fact, it sounds an awful lot like the "free and democratic" "elections" some obviously autocratic nations hold. Granted, it's just a handful of states out of fifty and just the primary that Biden would still win regardless (which brings up the question, why even do this?), but it's a worrying trend, at least to me it is.

[uuuhhii]

italy recently had a fascist rally

after electing a fascist leader

hope the rest of the world are better prepared this time