Ukraine Conflict - "The nationalist not only does not disapprove of atrocities committed by his own side, but he has a remarkable capacity for not even hearing about them."

[Malcador]

3 hours ago, majestic said:

Really, after almost 40 years?

Yeah, I'll get my coat.

I said wrecked, not obliterated

[Mamoulian War]

Russian Black Sea Fleat -2

 

According the hints in official UA statement, the explosion might be a work of non-existent UA air force.

 

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/09/13/7419595/

[Gfted1]

Ukraine's attack on Sevastapol 'strikes into the heart' of maritime 'advantage': UK Navy chief - Breaking Defense

[Mamoulian War]

Russia just lost one of his oldest allies

 

Pashinyan: Due to the conflict in Ukraine, the Armenian authorities can no longer rely on the Russian Federation as a guarantor of their security

[Malcador]

 

1 hour ago, Gfted1 said:

Ukraine's attack on Sevastapol 'strikes into the heart' of maritime 'advantage': UK Navy chief - Breaking Defense

Hah, not sure what is redefining warfare about using a cruise missile.

[Mamoulian War]

56 minutes ago, Malcador said:

 

Hah, not sure what is redefining warfare about using a cruise missile.

Using it against military target

[Malcador]

17 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

Using it against military target

Considering who it's a donation from, no.

[Gfted1]

It would be huge if they really managed to take out a Kilo and Ropucha with a 10 volley of Storm Shadow, especially considering 7 were supposedly shot down. 

[Malcador]

1 hour ago, Gfted1 said:

It would be huge if they really managed to take out a Kilo and Ropucha with a 10 volley of Storm Shadow, especially considering 7 were supposedly shot down. 

Damage to the dry dock may be the bigger deal.

[Zoraptor]

Dry docks themselves are easy to repair since they are, basically, just a big terraced concrete basin that is fundamentally hard to damage and easy to repair with a door at one (or both) end(s)- and this wasn't HMS Cambeltown ramming the gates at St Nazaire while packed full of explosives. The issue would more likely be if any vessels in them were damaged enough to be irrecoverable then they'd have to be scrapped in situ or repaired enough to refloat either of which ties them up for a decent period of time to no actual benefit.

Either way the only actual significance is the sub getting hit, and that's pretty minor if they aren't actually going to/ don't need to sink vessels going to Ukraine. At this point the landing ship is completely irrelevant.

... and I guess it shows how well the 'counter'offensive is going since at least in theory it's Ukraine blowing up a dock they were meant to be reclaiming imminently.

Edited September 13, 2023 by Zoraptor

[BruceVC]

11 hours ago, Gfted1 said:

It would be huge if they really managed to take out a Kilo and Ropucha with a 10 volley of Storm Shadow, especially considering 7 were supposedly shot down. 

Do we know it was Storm Shadow missiles? 

[BruceVC]

12 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

Do we know it was Storm Shadow missiles? 

https://www.hindustantimes.com/videos/world-news/british-storm-shadow-missile-damages-russian-submarine-warship-in-crimea-report-101694664630994.html#:~:text=Ukraine claims to have hit Russian submarine and,missiles were shot down by its air defences.

 

I found another link and it was 

[Malcador]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/13/us/politics/russia-sanctions-missile-production.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

Suspect this is just some scaremongering.

[Keyrock]

21 hours ago, Gfted1 said:

It would be huge if they really managed to take out a Kilo and Ropucha with a 10 volley of Storm Shadow, especially considering 7 were supposedly shot down. 

"Storm Shadow" sounds like an adult film star.

[BruceVC]

1 hour ago, Malcador said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/13/us/politics/russia-sanctions-missile-production.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

Suspect this is just some scaremongering.

I dont take this type of article too seriously, they say " As a result of the push, Russia is producing more ammunition than the US and Europe " 

Yet Putin is meeting with NK to exactly get more ammunition and other military hardware 

 

[Zoraptor]

Well yeah, hard to take either claim seriously when they're saying the exact opposite things- since pretty obviously someone is lying. Or mistaken, but at this point there's been so much inconsistency I tend to think that Eop's Law has to apply.

Not going to be holding my breath waiting for the media to bring up the inconsistency though. I bet both stories bring the clicks.

[Lexx]

Pretty sure the US has so much ammo stockpiled, they won't have to worry about potentially running out anytime soon.

[Zoraptor]

US is sending cluster munitions specifically because they've run out of conventional 155mm shells (source eg but there are a ton of others and iirc it was officially stated multiple times as the reason). There's plenty more examples from other countries not being able to source enough ammunition too (eg Germany begging Brazil for 105mm shells for Leo1s).

That will of course be 'run out' as in they don't want to dip below whatever critical reserve level they have set up for themselves, and there will be some level of self justification/ excuse making for sending cluster munitions with a 20% failure rate per their own congressional investigation that most of its partners (and actual US law) regard as illegal (for export); but there's been enough begging for conventional ammo from other sources like Brazil and South Korea plus complaints from Ukraine to strongly suggest that it's a real rather than, uh, manufactured shortage.

Russia being able to outproduce the west in practice is at least plausible. They make vast amounts of fertiliser and have a lot of mineral resources, in the end it isn't that hard to manufacture either explosives or munitions if you've got those two. The west could of course ramp up production to completely flood whatever Russia can make alone, but that costs money and whenever the war ends the factories will end up sitting idle again which costs more money.

[Keyrock]

12 minutes ago, Zoraptor said:

That will of course be 'run out' as in they don't want to dip below whatever critical reserve level they have set up for themselves

In the case of the US the "critical reserve" is whatever the folks at the Pentagon think they'll need for when they pivot to our inevitable war with China, if the neocons have anything to say about it, and unfortunately they do. They're salivating just thinking about it.

[BruceVC]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66805897

Really interesting development and they used Neptune missiles 

"Earlier on Thursday, a number of explosions were reported in the Crimean peninsula, which Russia illegally occupied in 2014.

According to the BBC's intelligence source, the Ukrainian operation used drones to take out radar equipment, then cruise missiles to hit air defence missile launchers.

"After disabling the radar stations, the navy units hit the S300 and S400 'Triumph' systems, worth $1.2bn, by two Neptune cruise missiles," the source said.

Neptune missiles were designed by Ukraine's military for naval use but have been modified for ground targets as well"

 

 

 

[xzar_monty]

Apparently the strikes in Sevastopol were very effective. This fellow also has a lovely accent:

 

Edited September 15, 2023 by xzar_monty

[Mamoulian War]

On 9/13/2023 at 10:35 PM, Zoraptor said:

Dry docks themselves are easy to repair since they are, basically, just a big terraced concrete basin that is fundamentally hard to damage and easy to repair with a door at one (or both) end(s)- and this wasn't HMS Cambeltown ramming the gates at St Nazaire while packed full of explosives. The issue would more likely be if any vessels in them were damaged enough to be irrecoverable then they'd have to be scrapped in situ or repaired enough to refloat either of which ties them up for a decent period of time to no actual benefit.

Either way the only actual significance is the sub getting hit, and that's pretty minor if they aren't actually going to/ don't need to sink vessels going to Ukraine. At this point the landing ship is completely irrelevant.

... and I guess it shows how well the 'counter'offensive is going since at least in theory it's Ukraine blowing up a dock they were meant to be reclaiming imminently.

And here you are wrong. Kilo submarines are carriers of Kalibr missiles, whith which Russia kills civilians, so destroying one, is pretty significant achievement for the defense of the country. Landing ships on other had, due to Kerch Bridge being closed every other day, are currently used for transporting military cargo to Crimea and Berdyansk. So this was again a blow against Russian logistic, although less significant. And with Valery Bykov ship damaged today again, having less drydocks available for Black Sea Fleet, will harm them even more. As they do have only one available outside of Sevastopol. In Novorossiysk. They have three more in Sevastopol, but yeah, good luck doing maintenance to your subs there now

[BruceVC]

9 hours ago, Keyrock said:

In the case of the US the "critical reserve" is whatever the folks at the Pentagon think they'll need for when they pivot to our inevitable war with China, if the neocons have anything to say about it, and unfortunately they do. They're salivating just thinking about it.

Why do you think the US wants a traditional war with China? I hear this a lot on Codex but it never really makes sense

During the 50 years of the Cold War the likes of The West and USSR and China really hated each other and they didnt go to war and that was because of the reality of nukes and how the risk of MAD was highly likely. Here is good link about the reality of MAD (mutually assured destruction) and its real and it helped prevent a WW3

https://www.britannica.com/topic/mutual-assured-destruction

Its fascinating and ironic how views in history change, when Oppenheimer and the US successfully tested the first nuke in WW2 he was deeply conflicted and troubled by what he witnessed around the power of nuclear weapons. He said "Now  I am become death, the destroyer of worlds " because he guessed correctly that the rest of world would also develop nukes and that the superpowers would destroy each other and the rest of the world in the next WW

But he was mistaken because the reality of MAD actually stopped a WW3 during the Cold War. So nukes became a deterrent and not the end of the world 

And that reality still applies today, no  real nuclear power will go to war with each because this is still relevant 

But trade wars and sanctions can and will happen 

 

 

 

 

 

[Mamoulian War]

And I really find amusing, how you try to belittle every UA achievement during the offensive, completely ignoring the fact, that they are now after the biggest battle in terms of manpower and vehicles commited during this war in around the Robotyne, where Russia has accumulated 100k+ manpower for the defense of this area, including most elite VDV attack brigades from 76th brigade. And Russia has lost it. Against the attacks of 65k+ Ukrainian soldiers.

I remember you, belittling the Kherson offensive in a same way. And we all know how it ended up. Finger crossed, that it will have same effect this time as well. Although, me personally, do not believe they reach Tokmak, due to the sheer amount of meat, the Russia is willing to sacrifice for fulfilling of dream of a madman in Kremlin. Unless they have prepared the same surprise, as they given us near Kharkiv. They still have two months to fight.

[BruceVC]

10 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

And I really find amusing, how you try to belittle every UA achievement during the offensive, completely ignoring the fact, that they are now after the biggest battle in terms of manpower and vehicles commited during this war in around the Robotyne, where Russia has accumulated 100k+ manpower for the defense of this area, including most elite VDV attack brigades from 76th brigade. And Russia has lost it. Against the attacks of 65k+ Ukrainian soldiers.

I remember you, belittling the Kherson offensive in a same way. And we all know how it ended up. Finger crossed, that it will have same effect this time as well. Although, me personally, do not believe they reach Tokmak, due to the sheer amount of meat, the Russia is willing to sacrifice for fulfilling of dream of a madman in Kremlin. Unless they have prepared the same surprise, as they given us near Kharkiv. They still have two months to fight.

I think the offensive is going as well as it  can  considering the lack of air superiority and how the Ruskies had months to prepare a defensive line which they did effectively

I didnt ever expect a quick offensive but Im happy they making progress but these things take time