Ukraine Conflict - The object of war is not to die for your country but to make the other bastard die for his

[Mamoulian War]

While people here were ridiculing the post by Prigozhin about losses of his troops, Reuters published report on Russian “progress” on Bakhmut as well. It is estimated, that they lost in last 5 months 100k soldiers, out of which 20k has been KIA. The battle is ongoing for more than 8 month already and the city area taken by Russia is less than 40 square kms. Impressive eh?

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-believes-russians-ukraine-have-suffered-100000-casualties-5-months-2023-05-01/

[xzar_monty]

2 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

While people here were ridiculing the post by Prigozhin about losses of his troops, Reuters published report on Russian “progress” on Bakhmut as well.

I think there's ample reason to regard Prigozhin as a worthless source, so I think the ridicule stemmed from that. However, it also appears to me that some of the ridicule may have been slightly misguided, because no matter how worthless a source it is, content is also important: if he talks about losses, it just might be worth listening, or at least it might be a lot more credible than what he says about gains.

(In any case, I almost certainly wouldn't use Prigozhin as a source for anything.)

The situation in Bakhmut makes me think of Italy attacking some place in North Africa, possibly in the 1920s or earlier. I'm sorry I'm so hazy about the details. Anyway, they ended up making three ridiculous and costly attacks and losing an awful lot of young men because it would have been just too humiliating to stop, and so they humiliated themselves even worse.

[BruceVC]

I know this comes from Russian propagandists but I found the idea hilarious 

Americans unhappy with the current state of freedom in the US  should immigrate to Russia because Russia represents   " white, Christian values "  

[xzar_monty]

In the 1920s and 1930s, plenty of people from America (and other places, too, of course) either visited or went to live in the Soviet Union in search of a new kind of paradise. It turned out to be an unintentional experiment in self-deception and disillusion: while some were utterly horrified by what they saw, others were unable to let go of the idea of utopia, because (apparently) that would have represented a much too painful shattering of a world-view, or something.

The book EIMI by the American poet e e cummings is hard to read[*], but it works very well as a description of the misguided idealism of the time, and the breaking down of it, in cummings' own case.

There is not going to be a repeat of this phenomenon: idealistic Americans and Europeans will not flock into Putin's Russia in search of a better world, at least not in any numbers worth mentioning.

 

[*] I believe it's precisely this book and cummings' idiosyncratic spelling and punctuation that Ayn Rand tries to parody in either The Fountainhead or Atlas Shrugged, unfortunately I can't remember which one. But it's a hopeless parody: she doesn't have the skills for that at all -- I believe it's safe to say that nothing related to humour was anywhere near her forte.

Edited May 2, 2023 by xzar_monty

[Zoraptor]

If the US actually believed those casualty figures there's no way they'd have been telling Ukraine to retreat from Bakhmut- unless, of course, Ukraine was suffering disproportionately worse. Would have been interesting to see the response if someone had asked Kirby about that advice, or Ukrainian casualties for a comparison...

 

Also having a bit of a lol at the response to the explosion in Pavlograd yesterday (volume warning) on twitter. I particularly like Geoconfirmed saying it was the SS-24 decommission facility while complaining about others jumping the gun.

Turns out it wasn't. That's the problem with geolocating using two points in a line, who'd a guessed and thought to wait for a 3rd? certainly not self proclaimed experts complaining about others' wrong conclusions, apparently- and they're now just a bit baffled about what it was. After a staggering 20 seconds on duckduckgo tho:

Quote

 

The Ukrainian defense industry has suspended production of new missile systems, including the Vilkha high-precision rockets system and the Grim-2 tactical missile system.

[..]

Leonid Shiman, director of the Pavlograd Chemical Plant, told Ukrainian media that Government has failed to provide funds for financing, resulting in the plant temporarily suspend production of solid-propellant rocket motors for new Ukrainian missile systems.

 

per a 2020 article. Hmm, could that maybe, just maybe have been the target?

(And to be fair, on this occasion at least a decent number of the media have bowed to the obvious and called it a weapons depot hit, or similar rather than a strike on a home for orphan bunnies)

[BruceVC]

49 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

In the 1920s and 1930s, plenty of people from America (and other places, too, of course) either visited or went to live in the Soviet Union in search of a new kind of paradise. It turned out to be an unintentional experiment in self-deception and disillusion: while some were utterly horrified by what they saw, others were unable to let go of the idea of utopia, because (apparently) that would have represented a much too painful shattering of a world-view, or something.

The book EIMI by the American poet e e cummings is hard to read[*], but it works very well as a description of the misguided idealism of the time, and the breaking down of it, in cummings' own case.

There is not going to be a repeat of this phenomenon: idealistic Americans and Europeans will not flock into Putin's Russia in search of a better world, at least not in any numbers worth mentioning.

 

[*] I believe it's precisely this book and cummings' idiosyncratic spelling and punctuation that Ayn Rand tries to parody in either The Fountainhead or Atlas Shrugged, unfortunately I can't remember which one. But it's a hopeless parody: she doesn't have the skills for that at all -- I believe it's safe to say that nothing related to humour was anywhere near her forte.

You make some good points here, its hard to believe anyone would believe the likes of the USSR provided a more free society than the West but some people did believe it 

But honestly I would encourage people to immigrate to Russia under Putin  but only those living in a Western Democracy who think that they dont have freedom or their basic  rights  are being undermined by events like the Corona lockdowns perpetuated by the "deep state\globohomo" insidious control of governments 

Live a while in the ME or places like Russia and  you will see the difference when real freedom is denied 

[xzar_monty]

1 hour ago, Zoraptor said:

Would have been interesting to see the response if someone had asked Kirby about that advice, or Ukrainian casualties for a comparison...

Seems to me that this is a phenomenon characterizing all media everywhere (that I know of): far too many pertinent questions remain unasked. It's annoying.

It is partly because of what the job is like. When you read or watch an interview, you're always in a better position than the person conducting it, because you have all the time in the world to think, whereas when you're in the moment doing it, you absolutely don't. I've done dozens of interviews myself, mostly with more or less famous rock musicians, and I have had enough l'esprit de l'escalier experiences to last a lifetime.

But the word partly needs to emphasized in what I just wrote. There are also ideological and other reasons for not asking certain questions. It's especially this side of it that makes it annoying.

[kanisatha]

5 hours ago, BruceVC said:

https://news.yahoo.com/china-backs-un-resolution-mentioning-203500758.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall

Interesting UN resolution the last few days with China voting to support the resolution despite it mentioning Russian aggression. China has always abstained from votes that mention Russian aggression. To quote 

" In particular, the document refers to the “unprecedented challenges” facing Europe after Russian aggression against Ukraine, and before that against Georgia, and calls for “compensation” of the damage sustained by the victims of Moscow’s aggression " 

It would be prudent to be cautious about this, though, because as the story itself makes clear this resolution was not about the Ukraine war and was, rather about relations between the UN and Europe. I suspect that for countries like China, India, and Brazil, this was a quid pro quo of "we'll support a resolution promoting UN-Europe cooperation in return for similar UN resolutions on Asia/Latin America."

[Malcador]

5 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

While people here were ridiculing the post by Prigozhin about losses of his troops, Reuters published report on Russian “progress” on Bakhmut as well. It is estimated, that they lost in last 5 months 100k soldiers, out of which 20k has been KIA. The battle is ongoing for more than 8 month already and the city area taken by Russia is less than 40 square kms. Impressive eh?

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-believes-russians-ukraine-have-suffered-100000-casualties-5-months-2023-05-01/

Not in Bakhmut but across the entire front.  Not sure how Kirby managed to create such confusion.

  

3 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

Would have been interesting to see the response if someone had asked Kirby about that advice, or Ukrainian casualties for a comparison...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/04/30/russia-ukraine-war-news-2/

Looks like someone did ask about Ukrainian dead.  Nice of him to respect Ukrainian privacy.

"He declined to discuss Ukrainian casualties. “That’s up to them to speak to,” he said."

 

Edited May 2, 2023 by Malcador

[Mamoulian War]

Well few days ago, Ukraine did hint on how many of their soldiers died since 3day SMO started, and it caused a nice diplomatic faux-pas. According to UA officials, the number of UA military casualties is lower than number of civilian casualties during the latest earthquake in Turkyie, which is counted as 60k deceased and 120k injured.

[Mamoulian War]

18 hours ago, kanisatha said:

It would be prudent to be cautious about this, though, because as the story itself makes clear this resolution was not about the Ukraine war and was, rather about relations between the UN and Europe. I suspect that for countries like China, India, and Brazil, this was a quid pro quo of "we'll support a resolution promoting UN-Europe cooperation in return for similar UN resolutions on Asia/Latin America."

Looks like the resolutions is gaining at least some negative traction in Russia. Girkin has reposted a statement from a former Deputy of Duma, and he is unprecedently attacking Putin, blaming him for puting Russia in the worst isolation in the history of Russia.
 

 

[xzar_monty]

British General Jack Keane points out that Ukraine was right to ignore US advice to retreat from Bakhmut, the reasoning being that since Bakhmut provides Ukraine with an advantageous defensive position and Russians keep attacking it in droves, Ukraine can continue destroying Russian troops there, so that there are fewer of them left for the forthcoming Ukrainian counter-offensive. Of course this reasoning only holds as long as Bakhmut doesn't get completely circled, which I don't think has happened. Anyway, good point, if that indeed was how Ukraine reasoned it.

For how many months has Russia been attacking Bakhmut now? Astonishing that the battle is still going on.

[Chilloutman]

BTW I don't think there will be any 'spring' offensive - I think Ukraine will start late summer so they can dig in for counter attack in rainy season at autumn. That would make most sense

[xzar_monty]

3 minutes ago, Chilloutman said:

BTW I don't think there will be any 'spring' offensive - I think Ukraine will start late summer so they can dig in for counter attack in rainy season at autumn. That would make most sense

Hard to know. There have also been reports of the offensive already going on, but that's obviously debatable (personally, I doubt it).

"What makes most sense" is often difficult to say in war, because if your enemy also knows "what makes most sense", then that option may start to make less sense, and so on.

Edited May 3, 2023 by xzar_monty

[Lexx]

All this talk about spring offensive feels so weird to me. Dunno if it's just me, but if you read around the internet, it's like people treating it like season 2 of their favorite tv show.

[HoonDing]

War has been entertainment ever since Gulf War part deux

Edited May 3, 2023 by HoonDing

[Malcador]

2 hours ago, Lexx said:

All this talk about spring offensive feels so weird to me. Dunno if it's just me, but if you read around the internet, it's like people treating it like season 2 of their favorite tv show.

Has been so the entire war, the whole St. Javelina idiocy and people jerking it to combat footage. So is at least consistent.

[kanisatha]

3 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

British General Jack Keane points out that Ukraine was right to ignore US advice to retreat from Bakhmut, the reasoning being that since Bakhmut provides Ukraine with an advantageous defensive position and Russians keep attacking it in droves, Ukraine can continue destroying Russian troops there, so that there are fewer of them left for the forthcoming Ukrainian counter-offensive. Of course this reasoning only holds as long as Bakhmut doesn't get completely circled, which I don't think has happened. Anyway, good point, if that indeed was how Ukraine reasoned it.

For how many months has Russia been attacking Bakhmut now? Astonishing that the battle is still going on.

Putin has no choice but to keep at it in Bakhmut, because only by capturing Bakhmut can he then go to his people and tell them he has achieved a huge success in the war and can then declare "victory" in the war and try to force the Ukrainians to accept a ceasefire that locks in the current frontlines. Capturing Bakhmut being some sort of big "win" is complete b.s., of course, but it's the Russian people he'll be looking to convince, and they can be convinced of anything. And the Ukrainians understand all of this, and are therefore using Bakhmut to make the Russians pay dearly.

[Malcador]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65471904

If actually done by Ukraine, guess this is just a "we can reach you" type of statement.

[Lexx]

I'm curious how this was supposed to kill Putin. Does he spend his nights right outside the Kremlin or does he enjoy sitting on the balcony?

[Malcador]

Maybe they wanted to knock the flag off  ?

[Mamoulian War]

28 minutes ago, Malcador said:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65471904

If actually done by Ukraine, guess this is just a "we can reach you" type of statement.

The UA forces have shown few days ago streams made by drones hovering above Moscow.

[Mamoulian War]

Question to guys from US. Having seen the clashes between Republicans and Democrats about aid to Ukraine, how significant is this answer of McCarthy to Russian journalist?
 

 

[xzar_monty]

16 hours ago, kanisatha said:

Putin has no choice but to keep at it in Bakhmut, because only by capturing Bakhmut can he then go to his people and tell them he has achieved a huge success in the war and can then declare "victory" in the war and try to force the Ukrainians to accept a ceasefire that locks in the current frontlines. Capturing Bakhmut being some sort of big "win" is complete b.s., of course, but it's the Russian people he'll be looking to convince, and they can be convinced of anything. And the Ukrainians understand all of this, and are therefore using Bakhmut to make the Russians pay dearly.

The logical fault in this line of thinking is that if the Russian people "can be convinced of anything", then they can also be convinced of victory no matter what happens at Bakhmut, so Putin could easily stop it. He won't, of course, mostly for personal reasons I'd say.

(Incidentally, I agree that the Russians can be convinced of anything, by force if necessary. But the situation is very convoluted.)

Edited May 4, 2023 by xzar_monty

[kanisatha]

8 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

The logical fault in this line of thinking is that if the Russian people "can be convinced of anything", then they can also be convinced of victory no matter what happens at Bakhmut, so Putin could easily stop it. He won't, of course, mostly for personal reasons I'd say.

(Incidentally, I agree that the Russians can be convinced of anything, by force if necessary. But the situation is very convoluted.)

Well, you still have to put something on the table for the Russian people to believe the lie. Even lies need an anchor.

The "prize" that Putin was going to serve up to the Russian people was supposed to be Kiev. But he failed (miserably) to deliver on that prize. So Bakhmut has become the consolation prize, something with which Putin gets to justify all of the many, many ways in which the Russian people have paid a heavy price for Putin's stupid war. But, in the process, Bakhmut has also become some sort of 'white whale' for Putin, something he *must* have no matter the cost.