Ukraine Conflict - Continues

[pmp10]

The 'ratio' obsession at Bakhmut looks like a new 'body count' from Vietnam.
You can arrive at any number you want to.
One OSINT type, visiting the place with Kofman, calculated it at close to 1:1 for example.

 

[BruceVC]

14 hours ago, kanisatha said:

All of the analyses I'm reading, from very reputable military/think-tank sources, continue to claim that Bakhmut is going very badly for the Russians and that in fact the offensive is effectively stalled, that casualties are still 7:1 in favor of Ukraine, that Russia's last remaining professional soldiers are who are dying there, and that even Russia's artillery, which was their one and only advantage, is now severely attrited. And as such, if the Russians enter house-to-house urban warfare with the Ukrainians inside the city, their forces will be completely attrited. And yes, this is deliberate Ukrainian strategy to destroy Russia's ability to carry out any offensive operations ahead of Ukraine's own offensive later this spring.

I can tell you one thing,  if the whole Bakhmut Russian meatgrinder strategy is real it will be another absolutely brilliant example of Ukrainian subterfuge to manipulate the Russians into a certain approach. Remember when they fooled the Ruskies during the Kharkiv offensive?

[xzar_monty]

In my view, the most interesting thing about Bakhmut seems to be twofold: 1) the fact of how difficult it is to come to any definite conclusion about what is going on, and 2) the fact of how long it has been this way. It is also possible that I haven't seen the best available info, so "my view" may well be skewed.

Edited March 14, 2023 by xzar_monty

[BruceVC]

22 minutes ago, pmp10 said:

1:1 for example.

 

He probably also said " Kiev will fall in 3 weeks "  

[Zoraptor]

20 minutes ago, pmp10 said:

The 'ratio' obsession at Bakhmut looks like a new 'body count' from Vietnam.
You can arrive at any number you want to.
One OSINT type, visiting the place with Kofman, calculated it at close to 1:1 for example.

Troops in the field massively over estimate their own effectiveness- and always have. If you don't take that into account you'll always have wildly over-optimistic estimates. You can also stack the numbers by various means though they don't seem to apply here.

Classic case: if you include ANA casualties the Taleban had a positive K:D ratio and the US led coalition had a negative one in Afghanistan 2001-21. Which on the face of it seems completely implausible when the 'losing' side had utter air supremacy including drones; plus had almost as much dominance in artillery and armour as well. It also seems implausible based on the news we were supplied with, because those figures never included ANA losses to make it look like we were winning when we weren't.

1:1 seems likely, now. It's just not a very good defensive position any more when you have enemies on the high ground on 3 sides.

10 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

1) the fact of how difficult it is to come to any definite conclusion about what is going on

Oh god yes. We've had both wildly pessimistic and wildly optimistic press/ technical analyses of Ukraine's performance/ future there over the past day, let alone the last week. Positive stories have also been mutually contradictory at times, same with the negative ones. You can make some conclusions from looking at maps and the like plus seeing on the ground comments, but you can't know what the losses actually are and how far either side is willing or able to go on them.

[bugarup]

You all know nothing, guys. russia already defeated Ukraine, now its fighting dastardly NATO and other evil West. And it will win, of course. 

 

[kanisatha]

2 hours ago, bugarup said:

You all know nothing, guys. russia already defeated Ukraine, now its fighting dastardly NATO and other evil West. And it will win, of course. 

 

Yes the Russians are so delusional they actually believe it will be some sort of huge "win" for them. What a bunch of idiots and losers. It won't even be a symbolic win for them. It will be the ultimate pyrrhic win and will go into military history as the classic example of such.

[Malcador]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/13/ukraine-casualties-pessimism-ammunition-shortage/

"The situation on the battlefield now may not reflect a full picture of Ukraine’s forces, because Kyiv is training troops for the coming counteroffensive separately and deliberately holding them back from current fighting, including the defense of Bakhmut, a U.S. official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to be candid."

“I get 100 new soldiers,” Kupol said. “They don’t give me any time to prepare them. They say, ‘Take them into the battle.’ They just drop everything and run. That’s it. Do you understand why? Because the soldier doesn’t shoot. I ask him why, and he says, ‘I’m afraid of the sound of the shot.’ And for some reason, he has never thrown a grenade. … We need NATO instructors in all our training centers, and our instructors need to be sent over there into the trenches. Because they failed in their task.”

 

 

[xzar_monty]

23 minutes ago, kanisatha said:

Yes the Russians are so delusional they actually believe it will be some sort of huge "win" for them. What a bunch of idiots and losers. It won't even be a symbolic win for them. It will be the ultimate pyrrhic win and will go into military history as the classic example of such.

But for you to use the word "Pyrrhic", you must imply that Russia will, in some way, win. What do you think the Russian victory will consist of, then? Keeping Crimea, perhaps?

[xzar_monty]

I think this is extremely interesting, one of the most interesting pronouncements during the whole war. I am quite sure it was not Putin's intention to stress the fact, but clearly he is saying that Russia is weak, very weak indeed. After all, what kind of country can possibly have its existence threatened by a war it has itself started against a much smaller neighbour?

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-says-russia-is-fight-existence-state-2023-03-14/

[Mamoulian War]

11 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

Troops in the field massively over estimate their own effectiveness- and always have. If you don't take that into account you'll always have wildly over-optimistic estimates. You can also stack the numbers by various means though they don't seem to apply here.

Classic case: if you include ANA casualties the Taleban had a positive K:D ratio and the US led coalition had a negative one in Afghanistan 2001-21. Which on the face of it seems completely implausible when the 'losing' side had utter air supremacy including drones; plus had almost as much dominance in artillery and armour as well. It also seems implausible based on the news we were supplied with, because those figures never included ANA losses to make it look like we were winning when we weren't.

1:1 seems likely, now. It's just not a very good defensive position any more when you have enemies on the high ground on 3 sides.

Oh god yes. We've had both wildly pessimistic and wildly optimistic press/ technical analyses of Ukraine's performance/ future there over the past day, let alone the last week. Positive stories have also been mutually contradictory at times, same with the negative ones. You can make some conclusions from looking at maps and the like plus seeing on the ground comments, but you can't know what the losses actually are and how far either side is willing or able to go on them.

Not gonna go into the argument over numbers, which is everyones wild guess, but I have to correct you about the topography. Bakhmut in itself has around itself bigger elevation only toward NW, in between Khromove, and Yahidne. There is not much of elevation to the south (elevation between Ivanivske and Opytne is pretty much on par with the elevation of the city center west of Bakhmutivka river) nor east. Although, if Khromove will fall, then you will be pretty much correct, and I think that can be the final nail in the Bakhmut coffin.

 

Edit:  Oh and Vuhledar has been quiet up until yesterday, when Russia started another attack towards it, through eastern dachas, so far with the same effort as last time

[Mamoulian War]

1 hour ago, xzar_monty said:

I think this is extremely interesting, one of the most interesting pronouncements during the whole war. I am quite sure it was not Putin's intention to stress the fact, but clearly he is saying that Russia is weak, very weak indeed. After all, what kind of country can possibly have its existence threatened by a war it has itself started against a much smaller neighbour?

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-says-russia-is-fight-existence-state-2023-03-14/

I would not give much attention to it. This is just a message to domestic audience to spark at least some patriotic feeling in a the few Russians which are still not mutilated or have not fled the country, to get more volunteers into the meat grinder. A futile effort with the population, which has been conditioned for the last 20 years to maximum apathy, if you ask me...

[BruceVC]

3 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

But for you to use the word "Pyrrhic", you must imply that Russia will, in some way, win. What do you think the Russian victory will consist of, then? Keeping Crimea, perhaps?

He is talking about winning in Bakhmut, not the whole war. Kanie doesnt think the Russians will win the overall war but they could achieve victory in Bakhmut

[Malcador]

https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/14/politics/russian-jet-us-drone-black-sea/index.html

Flanker probably got a busted up nose or wing

[xzar_monty]

1 hour ago, Mamoulian War said:

I would not give much attention to it. This is just a message to domestic audience to spark at least some patriotic feeling in a the few Russians which are still not mutilated or have not fled the country, to get more volunteers into the meat grinder. A futile effort with the population, which has been conditioned for the last 20 years to maximum apathy, if you ask me...

If only it was like this, but the people who have fled the country, for example, are a very small minority. Not a meaningless minority for sure, but a very small one.

[Gfted1]

2 hours ago, Malcador said:

Flanker probably got a busted up nose or wing

My guess is the wing, else the debris would be sucked into the air intakes and FOD the engine. Interesting that dumping fuel on it didnt work. 

[Mamoulian War]

14 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

 

 

Edit:  Oh and Vuhledar has been quiet up until yesterday, when Russia started another attack towards it, through eastern dachas, so far with the same effort as last time

Speaking of Vuhledar, few notes about russian february offensive

 

And apparently, UA had apparently some partial success at counteroffensive near Khromove near Bakhmut.

 

[Mamoulian War]

An interview with two UA volunteers fighting in Bakhmut, comparing Wagnerites with regular RU army. Even if they are not professional Wagnerites, they are much harder to fight against than the regular RU soldiers.

 

[kanisatha]

20 hours ago, BruceVC said:

He is talking about winning in Bakhmut, not the whole war. Kanie doesnt think the Russians will win the overall war but they could achieve victory in Bakhmut

Yes, this. In Bakhmut it is inevitable that eventually the Russians will capture what is effectively a big pile of rubble with no population, for no other reason than because they have commited such a huge percentage of their available forces to this one battle and have overwhelming numerical superiority over the defenders. The real, meaningful battle is yet to come, when the Ukrainians launch their offensive in the south, and we will get to see if the Russians have enough capable forces left to hold their frontlines.

[Malcador]

 

[BruceVC]

https://www.axios.com/2023/03/15/israel-ukraine-anti-drone-system-approve-russia-war?fbclid=IwAR2SVLhRiOyBC-R5y1C5djGhQgfVAzpn7k70QsJcJ2HTDwqfMbidl6nMAfc

A good move by Israel in support of the Ukrainian war effort and specifically increased protection against drones

 

[Mamoulian War]

On 3/14/2023 at 7:45 PM, xzar_monty said:

If only it was like this, but the people who have fled the country, for example, are a very small minority. Not a meaningless minority for sure, but a very small one.

It was more in lines about the people who still not left, but do not care about what’s happening anywhere around them. Here is the follow up of the Putin’s “Russia is fighting for existence.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/03/16/7393631/

call ups of people to show up in military recruitment centers in 35 Krais.

and that’s the second article like that, I have found out published right after his accident. OFC the 2nd mobilization is still denied, buut as we know, do not believe anything, until Russia denies it

[Mamoulian War]

Two more wartranslated reports around Bakhmut. As always, should be taken with a pinch of salt.

Oh, and funny one. Russian propagandist found out Ruskiy Mir, for which they are fighting, in action

 

[Azdeus]

On 3/14/2023 at 9:52 PM, Gfted1 said:

My guess is the wing, else the debris would be sucked into the air intakes and FOD the engine. Interesting that dumping fuel on it didnt work. 

A video of said actions, hope it works

https://ljsp.lwcdn.com/api/video/embed.jsp?id=14203c44-f4c5-40b5-b451-d0bf912dc6bd&pi=undefined

[BruceVC]

https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5875867

Really grim results from Gazprom. Revenue increased yet operating costs dramatically increased and final net profit was 747  billion rubles  compared to 2.684 trillion rubles in 2021

Western sanctions and EU not being as dependant on Russian gas  would be main reason for this