Ukraine Conflict - Continues

[xzar_monty]

I suppose the Nord Stream incident is going to be one of those cases where we're never going to find a smoking gun, and this is not because it's a particularly poor metaphor when applied to an underwater operation.

[pmp10]

So Putin let slip an interesting little detail recently.
He claimed to produce over 1600 tanks in 3 years.

If this number is credible that would likely amount to over 500 tanks produced, refurbished and modernized per annum. 
For this year it would only be twice of what Ukraine is expected to receive, but in case of a forever-war only US has the capability to match. 

[kanisatha]

First of all, I don't at all buy that Russia has that kind of tank production capacity, or production capacity for anything, especially now under sanctions. But even if it happens, so what? Very effective Western ATGMs are a small fraction of the cost of a modern tank.

[BruceVC]

[Mamoulian War]

6 hours ago, kanisatha said:

First of all, I don't at all buy that Russia has that kind of tank production capacity, or production capacity for anything, especially now under sanctions. But even if it happens, so what? Very effective Western ATGMs are a small fraction of the cost of a modern tank.

To be fair, if they start mass producing T54/T55, they might meet the quota. No western tech needed for that one

[xzar_monty]

22 hours ago, pmp10 said:

So Putin let slip an interesting little detail recently.

Why "let slip"?

[pmp10]

Wrong phrasing on my part but I don't think giving out this information was terribly smart. 
The exact Russian capability to produce/refurbish equipment was subject to a lot of speculation on minimal basis so having numbers from the source is quite useful.

Even if they come with the usual caveats of politician cherry-picking data they find convenient.

[xzar_monty]

Here's a tweet that I don't think violates any rules on propriety, as I think the BMP getting a hit is already abandoned -- however, if a moderator deems this inappropriate, just delete the comment and please accept my apology.

This short video makes me wonder a bit, simply from a physics perspective. I suppose someone like @Zoraptor might be able to help me out. Immediately after the impact, a piece of something is propelled into the original direction of the (I think) Stugna, and a lot faster, too, than the missile was travelling before the impact. What happens? The missile detonates, a piece of it gets extra energy from the detonation and continues to travel in the original direction, leaving a vapor trail -- or what? I find this curious enough to ask. Physics and warfare are not my specialities, unfortunately.

 

[Zoraptor]

HEAT round --> penetrator copper jet at 5000ºC --> vapor trail on a cold day.

(I don't really know know but I'd say it's fairly safe assumption that's what it is)

[Mamoulian War]

Today is the day, when there has been passed the 2000 mark of confirmed KIA amongst RU officers. In few decades, this operation would be known as Putin’s Great Purge.  

 

[xzar_monty]

Do we have any way of knowing what kind of percentages these losses represent, particularly when it comes to senior officers and generals?

[pmp10]

Another article suggesting we might be heading for a forever war.

If true there will be no freezing of this conflict come fall/winter.
Or at least not on conditions that would allow Ukrainian long-term survival.

[Malcador]

17 minutes ago, pmp10 said:

Another article suggesting we might be heading for a forever war.

If true there will be no freezing of this conflict come fall/winter.
Or at least not on conditions that would allow Ukrainian long-term survival.

Well, that's what Putin says anyway.  Think whatever Ukrainian offensive goes on this summer or spring will determine that.  Czech President said as much https://kyivindependent.com/czech-president-believes-ukraine-has-one-attempt-to-carry-out-major-counteroffensive/

 

 

[Sarex]

People will get bored eventually, surprised they still haven't been.

[Chilloutman]

It all depends on how well/if offensive will make any impact - if there will be at least some gain of territory support will remain

[xzar_monty]

8 minutes ago, Sarex said:

People will get bored eventually, surprised they still haven't been.

I'm not sure who you're referring to as "people", but Ukrainians surely aren't going to get bored as long as their existence is on the line. Many European states aren't going to get bored as long as so much of their projected future is in jeopardy. For the US, it's much more complex, so boredom probably factors there, at least to some extent. As for Russians, no idea.

[Malcador]

22 minutes ago, Sarex said:

People will get bored eventually, surprised they still haven't been.

Well, wouldn't say people are bored here in Canada, definitely is less energetic than 6 months ago, way less than this time last year obviously. 

[xzar_monty]

In terms of developments inside Russia, I'd wager there's an awful lot of fury within the scientific community. I know something about the academic disciplines of history, geology[*], forestry and archaeology, and it seems to me that Russia is almost completely isolated from much of the West, in terms of co-operation and such, and obviously this is terrible news for the country in that sense. Actually, I'd love to hear what kind of perspective @kanisatha has on this side of things.

It has also been reported that many of the approximately 750 000 people who have now fled Russia are particularly well-educated, well-connected and so on, so they represent a disproportionately big loss for Russia in terms of human potential, etc. There is obviously a kind of a precedent for this, because during and after the communist revolution, many of the best-educated and most intelligent Russians were nicely slaughtered by ill-mannered and poorly educated thugs. What a lot of good that did for the Soviet system and its design, as I'm sure we all know.

It does appear though, that all the rage and intellectual opposition mustered by the Russian scientific community would amount to absolutely nothing, even it were openly expressed.

 

[*] It's a bit worrying if everything concerning the developments in the Siberian permafrost remains outside international co-operation.

[Sarex]

30 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Well, wouldn't say people are bored here in Canada, definitely is less energetic than 6 months ago, way less than this time last year obviously. 

Canada has the biggest Ukrainian population outside of Ukraine and Russia from what I know, at least before this whole sordid affair.

[xzar_monty]

8 minutes ago, Sarex said:

Canada has the biggest Ukrainian population outside of Ukraine and Russia from what I know, at least before this whole sordid affair.

Yeah, I think Canada and Poland are both slightly above the US in this.

[Malcador]

14 minutes ago, Sarex said:

Canada has the biggest Ukrainian population outside of Ukraine and Russia from what I know, at least before this whole sordid affair.

Yeah, is why Canada is going to be the last to stop sending stuff.  Well...ok, given our military we may run out stuff to send long before that regardless.   But can send money.

[ShadySands]

I don't see the US stopping anytime in the near term. There's not much downside to it on a practical level as it's done a lot to diminish an adversary without much risk to ourselves. I know public support has dropped a bit but the majority of that has been on the Republican side and I think there's probably enough defense industry, global police, and anti-Russia folks in the party to keep it from completely tanking.

[xzar_monty]

7 hours ago, ShadySands said:

I don't see the US stopping anytime in the near term. There's not much downside to it on a practical level as it's done a lot to diminish an adversary without much risk to ourselves.

I think the US also considers that while there's not much downside to continuing to support Ukraine, there would be plenty of downsides to stopping it, geopolitically speaking.

Btw, I think it was Jared Diamond who pointed out that the US is essentially blessed when it comes to geography, climate, neighbours and many other factors such as that. Thus, the US has been able to develop particularly nicely (with plenty of help from warring Europe, no question) and does indeed have the without much risk to ourselves factor (as you put it) in many of the things it's able to do. Canada and Mexico are not going to attack, for instance. (So the fact that it continues to waste an incredible amount of resources by poor educational standards, lack of universal health care and all the rest of it is unbelievably foolish...)

[BruceVC]

16 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

I'm not sure who you're referring to as "people", but Ukrainians surely aren't going to get bored as long as their existence is on the line. Many European states aren't going to get bored as long as so much of their projected future is in jeopardy. For the US, it's much more complex, so boredom probably factors there, at least to some extent. As for Russians, no idea.

The war could end relatively  quickly  because it was caused by the nationalist views and influence  of one man, Putin. If Putin dies tomorrow and you see new leadership they could literally end the direction that Russia is going in Ukraine and at least immediately withdraw the Russian army back to Russia borders

There are  lots of examples in history about wars ending when you see leadership change like the end of the USSR under Gorbachev or the end of the Vietnam war 

Im not convinced at all that this is a " forever " war because historical and current precedent around wars doesnt support that. You can often  see change in countries ideological stance based on new leadership 

Another relevant example, 45 years of Apartheid ended in SA under the direction of a single man and his views. FW De Klerk took over from the previous PM and the ideological direction  of SA changed

 

 

 

Edited March 29, 2023 by BruceVC

[xzar_monty]

51 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

The war could end relatively  quickly  because it was caused by the nationalist views and influence  of one man, Putin. If Putin dies tomorrow and you see new leadership they could literally end the direction that Russia is going in Ukraine and at least immediately withdraw the Russian army back to Russia borders

There is a story concerning two warring Greek powers, probably Athens and Sparta. The Athenians send a messenger to the Spartans to say: "If we proceed to attack your city, it will be razed to the ground." The Spartans send a messenger back to say: "If."