Ukraine Conflict - Continues

[Gfted1]

3 hours ago, BruceVC said:

Wait till end of year results 

We better start pocket watching for the bonus these CEOs get at the end of the year. Twitter rage, ASSEMBLE!

[Malcador]

2 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

I have no comment to make on Hoonding because I haven't seen that many of his comments, but there certainly are users, even on this thread, who never contribute anything of substance and who almost constantly have a tone of deliberately snide condescension.

This is ****ing rich from you.

 

10 hours ago, BruceVC said:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/3/10/ukraine-says-bakhmut-battle-grinding-down-russias-best-units

Its been a legitimate question for many, " whats the point of trying to hold onto Bakhmut for Ukraine. Its just one small town in a long border war " . It was something I wondered at least. And unlike the Russians the Ukrainians havent been prone to making military decisions, so far, that have been imprudent or led to unnecessary loss of large amounts of life. They have been very strategic throughout this war

Anyway I came across an interview on Al-Jazeera about Bakhmut, in summary Bakhmut is a meatgrinder for Russian forces so that its easier  for a planned Ukrainian offensive in April. Interesting strategy if true because the Russian killed\wounded ratio on Bakhmut are 6-1 compared to Ukraine so that part of the plan is working

 

A lot of analysts are of the opinion that it's not serving that purpose now, Kofman if I recall said the losses are at parity now and the noose is tightening - basically that they should have pulled back two weeks ago.  Not as if the country behind it isn't fortified, so not that devastating.  But the idea Ukrainian command may err seems unpopular, heh, something to be said for marketing.

An interesting claim by Kofman, incidentally, apparently both sides are so mauled that it's mobilized troops fighting each other for the most part.

[BruceVC]

54 minutes ago, Malcador said:

This is ****ing rich from you.

 

A lot of analysts are of the opinion that it's not serving that purpose now, Kofman if I recall said the losses are at parity now and the noose is tightening - basically that they should have pulled back two weeks ago.  Not as if the country behind it isn't fortified, so not that devastating.  But the idea Ukrainian command may err seems unpopular, heh, something to be said for marketing.

An interesting claim by Kofman, incidentally, apparently both sides are so mauled that it's mobilized troops fighting each other for the most part.

Yes the reporting on Bakhmut has been difficult to ascertain what the truth is but I think its for different reasons from both sides 

I dont believe anything from the Russian side until its confirmed from the Ukrainian side, like when Ukraine said " Mariupol has surrendered  " I believed it  and the Ukrainians tend to keep things silent until they have definitive news. They also generally dont allow the media or embedded journalists too close to the active frontline. So all imbedded journalists from the likes of CNN, sky, Al-Jazeera or Reuters dont always have updated or accurate news by design...its limited 

CNN was saying 2 weeks ago that Bakhmut was surrounded according to Wagner, Im not sure why they were quoting Wagner 

But this link is from a quoted Ukrainian spokesman and normally thats the official strategy based on the reality of a  particular battle in the war. In other words if Bakhmut was hopeless the Ukrainians would withdrawal but if it serves a purpose, meatgrinder for Russian troops, then its worth continuing the defense

But nothing is certain in this type of battle, so we should just wait and see 

 

 

 

[Malcador]

 

[BruceVC]

47 minutes ago, Malcador said:

 

Interesting and very appropriate considering our discussion 

[Lexx]

I mean, isn't it kinda Captain Obvious stuff that less elite units are dying in Bakhmut, if russians only send in the street meat? Once retreated, those same forces will still keep coming, just in a different place.

That said, we're very likely missing some critical tactical information, so I dunno how much sense it makes to speculate about this. Personally I don't know what to think. From the little bits of information we get here and there, it seems stupid to me to hold out there while being surrounded on 3 sides.

Edited March 12, 2023 by Lexx

[BruceVC]

10 minutes ago, Lexx said:

I mean, isn't it kinda Captain Obvious stuff that less elite units are dying in Bakhmut, if russians only send in the street meat? Once retreated, those same forces will still keep coming, just in a different place.

That said, we're very likely missing some critical tactical information, so I dunno how much sense it makes to speculate about this. Personally I don't know what to think. From the little bits of information we get here and there, it seems stupid to me to hold out there while being surrounded on 3 sides.

Yes but the US view  is that elite troops are fatalities in Bakhmut because its important to the Russian strategy?

[pmp10]

17 minutes ago, Lexx said:

I mean, isn't it kinda Captain Obvious stuff that less elite units are dying in Bakhmut, if russians only send in the street meat? Once retreated, those same forces will still keep coming, just in a different place.

Not just that but there is a very real chance that Bakhmut is as good as it get's for Ukrainian defenses.
Some first person accounts considered the city practically unassailable. 

Telling Ukraine to retreat without suggesting a better location to hold the line is of little help.

[Mamoulian War]

18 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

Not really, here is a photo of typical supporter of these rallies  The number of them on such rallies is always in lower hundreds. This time, there were definitely more people, but now even Czech and Slovak media have benn giving any approximate numbers, which is strange Czechs are still sane enough. Slovakia on the other hand

 

So this guy has been apprehended by Czech police today, and will be trialed for approval of genocide in public.

[Lexx]

21 minutes ago, pmp10 said:

Not just that but there is a very real chance that Bakhmut is as good as it get's for Ukrainian defenses.
Some first person accounts considered the city practically unassailable. 

Telling Ukraine to retreat without suggesting a better location to hold the line is of little help.

Yeah, after the retreat it'll just keep going in another location. Also, wasn't it said that losing Bakhmut could compromise some other towns in the area (I forgot the names)?

[xzar_monty]

17 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

So this guy has been apprehended by Czech police today, and will be trialed for approval of genocide in public.

According to Czech law and practice of it, what kind of punishment is likely / possible? (I'm not sure if you know about this stuff, but I certainly don't.)

[Mamoulian War]

8 minutes ago, Lexx said:

Yeah, after the retreat it'll just keep going in another location. Also, wasn't it said that losing Bakhmut could compromise some other towns in the area (I forgot the names)?

First will be on target Chasiv Yar, and next or in parallel two biggest cities in still Ukrainian part of Donbass, Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. These two cities are practicaly one big aglomeration with other smaller cities. Russian army at the gates of these cities would be humanitarian and civilian catastrophy on scale bigger than Mariupol.

[Mamoulian War]

1 minute ago, xzar_monty said:

According to Czech law and practice of it, what kind of punishment is likely / possible? (I'm not sure if you know about this stuff, but I certainly don't.)

@Chilloutmando you have any knowledge, how severe might be his pinishment? All I know, that in Slovakia, we apprehended a guy, who admitted for spying for Russia, and he got 1500EUR fine, and three years “probation”…

In the meanwhile, one old guy got punishment of 15 years, because he was crafting self-made canabis ointments for his own use. 95% of the few herbs, which he got in his small garden, did not even contain any traces of forbidden substances…

Our laws are laughingstock for the whole EU.

[Zoraptor]

59 minutes ago, pmp10 said:

Not just that but there is a very real chance that Bakhmut is as good as it get's for Ukrainian defenses.
Some first person accounts considered the city practically unassailable.

No way was Bakhmut unassailable. It's a small/ medium city in a valley with a river running through it- better than what's behind it up to Slaviansk/ Kramatorsk but it was never a great defensive position. Now it's outright bad- high ground on both sides held by the enemy and most supply across a muddy field. Which of course also means the Russians shouldn't have so much trouble taking it...

It can still be argued it's worth it to hold strategically to protect elsewhere and they probably can hold so long as they're willing to apply disproportionate resources there; the question is whether those resources would be better used elsewhere especially if they're eventually going to have to retreat anyway- throwing good money after bad, basically. Strategically it protects Slaviansk/ Kramatorsk and the flank of Kostiantinivka (which anchors the southern defence around Toretsk and right down to Avdivka) and Siversk to the north. The Russians would have a hard time taking Kostiantinivka though, its position is similar to Bakhmut's.

[xzar_monty]

36 minutes ago, Zoraptor said:

No way was Bakhmut unassailable.

Wouldn't you essentially have to have Swiss / Afghan type natural fortifications to be considered unassailable? I mean, it's a strong word.

[Zoraptor]

Kind of, even those aren't literally impervious though. An 'unassailable position' is an inherently hyperbolic phrase which practically only implies that it's very difficult to take, not impossible. But even with that taken into account it doesn't describe Bakhmut.

A well defended city or fortified line on top of a steep ridge with multiple supply roads and a large river or swamp in front of it plus its flanks secured would be close to unassailable, and even then it would be 'unassailable' (ie figuratively, not literally, so) in practice. Bakhmut fulfills (fulfilled) some of those but far from all.

[xzar_monty]

The difference between figurative and literal use of language is indeed an important one. I am reminded of that old chestnut about an immovable object meeting an irresistible force -- which was intended to be taken literally and which therefore contains the answer in the question itself.

Edited March 13, 2023 by xzar_monty

[pmp10]

9 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

No way was Bakhmut unassailable. It's a small/ medium city in a valley with a river running through it- better than what's behind it up to Slaviansk/ Kramatorsk but it was never a great defensive position. Now it's outright bad- high ground on both sides held by the enemy and most supply across a muddy field. Which of course also means the Russians shouldn't have so much trouble taking it...

They mostly meant level of fortifications, apparently they have been steadily build-up since 2014 precisely to inflict sever losses on would-be attacker.
Mind you, these impressions were given last year, some time before Lysychansk happened.
Ukrainian morale was running high back then and judgments were overly optimistic. 

[BruceVC]

1 hour ago, xzar_monty said:

The difference between figurative and literal use of language is indeed an important one. I am reminded of that old chestnut about an immovable object meeting an irresistible force -- which was intended to be taken literally and which therefore contains the answer in the question itself.

Absolutely but another reason for constant misunderstandings and mischaracterizations on the Internet and forums is you cant always determine tone or intent around peoples posts

And  that sometimes creates the wrong impression around what people post. I have been engaging in Internet debates since 2002 and you have no idea the number of times people have accused me of being racist, fascist , condescending and other similar things 

Now I realize I am sometimes condescending, or I create that impression, but most of the time its not intentional. I also joke sometimes and thats misunderstood as condescension

But the solution to misunderstanding someone's intent is simply ask them to get clarification. Its easy, its quick and clears up any confusion. Thats what I do 

 I dont consider anyone active  on this forum to be an extremist in anyway. The closest I have seen is Vatniks like Comrade, Vals and Dark and I dont consider all Vatniks extremists and they not extremists 

Codex has several extremists who are open about it from the left and right but not this forum 

[kanisatha]

All of the analyses I'm reading, from very reputable military/think-tank sources, continue to claim that Bakhmut is going very badly for the Russians and that in fact the offensive is effectively stalled, that casualties are still 7:1 in favor of Ukraine, that Russia's last remaining professional soldiers are who are dying there, and that even Russia's artillery, which was their one and only advantage, is now severely attrited. And as such, if the Russians enter house-to-house urban warfare with the Ukrainians inside the city, their forces will be completely attrited. And yes, this is deliberate Ukrainian strategy to destroy Russia's ability to carry out any offensive operations ahead of Ukraine's own offensive later this spring.

[Zoraptor]

Conscripted prisoners <--> Russia's last professional soldiers

Half of Bakhmut taken <--> no urban warfare/ house to house fighting yet.

[..]

Think tanks <--> oxymoron

Literally the only reason why some people think there are professional Russian soldiers doing most of the fighting is because the good quality professional Ukrainian units doing the counterattacking- which have singularly failed so far- are doing so poorly. That can't be against conscripted prisoners, it has to be against professional soldiers.

[Malcador]

That ratio seems to go up, was 5:1 last week.  Seems it's a mix of everything there, Wagner and prisoners but now it seems it's VDV (where's Kamil Galeev now) and regulars.  Ukraine's got TDF fodder and some better units like 93rd there. But who knows how many are left, maybe a withdrawal has occurred of all the heavy stuff and all that's left is infantry to book it out of there on wheels or by foot.

 

[Zoraptor]

7:1 is direct from Ukraine; iirc Zelensky yesterday. Might have been the army chief of staff (?) though since their names are similar.

There's still a lot of footage coming out of Ukrainian tanks and ifvs in Bakhmut, comparatively speaking, though you're never sure how old it is- and at least one source* has a mechanised brigade still in Bakhmut proper (and one brigade of Russian regulars, rest Wagner). Perhaps the most interesting part of the whole thing is how little you see any Russian armour there, seems to be very disproportionately infantry.

Don't think VDV are present there any more, their footage recently has been from further north around Kreminna (which is also where the above source has them). They do seem to distribute VDV in multiple places though.

*which also has historical maps so you can actually look at how quickly the Ukrainian forces are rotated, which gives a good idea how quickly their combat effectiveness is depleted. Then again, you're always guessing a bit on how well researched such things are...

Edited March 13, 2023 by Zoraptor

[Chilloutman]

armor in urban warfare is just asking for getting rekt

[Mamoulian War]

Just for the sake, to have more info, what is going on around Bakhmut and Avdiivka, an oppinion of Russian terrorist Girkin.