Ukraine Conflict

[kanisatha]

8 hours ago, pmp10 said:

A little diplomatic signaling has take place recently:
Biden floated the idea of talking to Putin.
Scholz suggested returning to business as usual.
Macron talked about new security guarantees. (for Russia of course)

Slow softening of western position continues. 

No it isn't. You are choosing to interpret as you want.

Biden's comments included saying any talks must begin with the Russians being willing to withdraw from all occupied territory. And the Russians immediately rejected that, after which the White House also "clarrified" that talking with Putin made no sense at this time. Macron, in his statements, was also very clear that any negotiated deal must include the Russians being held completely accountable for all their "crimes" in Ukraine. And then the EU FM recently also made a specch in which she stated that Russia must be held accountable for all the damage and destruction it has caused in Ukraine, and that frozen Russian financial assets, including those of private Russians such as the oligarchs, should be used to create a fund to pay for Ukraine's rebuilding.

None of this sounds anything like a "softening" to me.

[Malcador]

The claims about Putin's health are all from a Telegram channel that has been fairly creative. Claimed Taliban will attack Tajikistan, Patriach Kiril is dying.  Has also said stuff like Putin's appearances are all fake since 8 months ago.

[pmp10]

Russia to refuse oil sales under price cap, aims to cut production instead.
I wonder how serious they are on this.
The price cap was set at a market rate exactly so they keep-on pumping. 

  

1 hour ago, kanisatha said:

None of this sounds anything like a "softening" to me.

Just look at the context of what was being said just a few weeks / months ago.

Ukraine went from 'never talking to Putin' to 'maybe talking to Putin'.
US went from 'talks are up to Ukraine' to 'maybe we would talk to Putin without Ukraine'.
Germany went from 'energy independence from Russia' to 'maybe some energy dependence on Russia'.
France went from 'invasion being unprovoked' to 'maybe the invasion was provoked'. (why else would Russia need guarantees?)

Macron might be forced to back-down on his statement but the western lines are visibly (if slowly) shifting.

Has Russia made any similar concessions regarding the future existence of Ukrainian state and its independence?
I expect not but I might have missed them.

Edited December 4, 2022 by pmp10

[Zoraptor]

6 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

Speaking of Stalin and awful, I find it astonishing that the last time Russians were asked about this (in that one repeating poll), the "greatest ever human being" in their opinion was old Joseph Stalin. Hardly any foreigners got into that list, but one who did was Adolf Hitler. Twenty years earlier, Albert Einstein used to be on that list, but more recently Russians have been of the opinion that his contributions to mankind are nothing compared to Hitler's. So it's all fine and dandy in Russia.

Did you know Time magazine was a big fan of Stalin too, as they named him their Person of the Year for 1939? That's a year after, uh, Adolf Hitler won it, and two years before Stalin won it, again. Plus, of course, Vladimir Putin won in 2007...

And that's why you should be very skeptical of headlines.

Stalin actually got named most influential (or, if you prefer a reference from a decidedly anti Russian source like the 'Moscow' Times "most remarkable" or "most notable"*). Though of course the MT has- like everyone else except those fine fellows at NPR- managed to make Josif Dzugashvili Russian instead of Georgian. So there were 4 foreigners on the list. Shame Sophie of Random German Principality Cate the Grate wasn't there, or there would have been 5.

Oh yeah, and Hitler came... last, anyway. Along with Napoleon.

*not a clue why the url is about vaccines for anyone doing a mouseover, as the article is about the poll

4 hours ago, Malcador said:

The claims about Putin's health are all from a Telegram channel that has been fairly creative. Claimed Taliban will attack Tajikistan, Patriach Kiril is dying.  Has also said stuff like Putin's appearances are all fake since 8 months ago.

They aren't all from there*. The Parkinson's one was, after all, from unnamed sources talking to... The Sun.

They all are beautiful examples of recursive reporting though, where a volume of people saying the same thing gives them apparent 'authority' when they resolve down to originating from one pretty useless source.

*unless that telegram channel is Solovei's I guess since it seems he was The Sun's unnamed source.

Edited December 4, 2022 by Zoraptor

[xzar_monty]

1 hour ago, Zoraptor said:

Did you know Time magazine was a big fan of Stalin too, as they named him their Person of the Year for 1939?

Oh yes. And Nelson Mandela was a terrorist, according to Margaret Thatcher. And so on. And so on, for quite some time.

I am not blind to, nor ignorant of, the naivety of famous historians, either. For example, Sir Antony Beevor, in his prologue to his book on the Spanish civil war, written in 2006, says this: "The passions and hatreds of such an era are a world away from the safe, civilian environment of health and safety, and citizens' rights in which we live today. That past is indeed 'another country'. [...] This, perhaps, is why it is unwise to try to judge the terrible conflict of 70 years ago with the liberal values and attitudes that we accept today as normal."

We disagree quite a lot, but I have a suspicion we might agree that not many historians would write that in 2022.

Edited December 4, 2022 by xzar_monty

[Malcador]

1 hour ago, Zoraptor said:

They aren't all from there*. The Parkinson's one was, after all, from unnamed sources talking to... The Sun.

They all are beautiful examples of recursive reporting though, where a volume of people saying the same thing gives them apparent 'authority' when they resolve down to originating from one pretty useless source.

*unless that telegram channel is Solovei's I guess since it seems he was The Sun's unnamed source.

Well, the ones about him falling down are from General SVR, or at least I saw the Post claimed.  Could be true, but is a long history of junk.

Edited December 4, 2022 by Malcador

[Zoraptor]

1 hour ago, xzar_monty said:

Oh yes. And Nelson Mandela was a terrorist, according to Margaret Thatcher. And so on. And so on, for quite some time.

It's not to do with that at all. There's a fundamental difference between interpreting greatest (-->'best') and greatest (-->most significant). The media mostly interpreted it the first way because... that's what made a catchy headline; the actual question posed was as the MT had it though, as who was most significant. ie, Stalin was being voted most significant by Russians, same as he was given two Man of the Year awards by Time for being the most significant man in 1939 and 1941, not for being the best person. It got mistranslated to greatest. Not the first time either, see Ivan the Terrible where Terrible is technically an accurate translation of Grozny, but it's in the near archaic sense you get in Battle Hymn of the Republic's "Terrible swift sword". Tempestuous or Stormy is a far more accurate literal translation and 'righteous' probably the closest figurative one.

For an unrelated example, unsurprisingly Chinggiz Han/ Temujin was voted most significant Mongol in history, by Mongolians (and most of the top 10 were associates/ successors of him). That doesn't mean that current day Mongols are endorsing the depopulation of much of Asia. It's just pretty difficult to argue that any other Mongol leader has been anywhere near as important and those that it could be argued for like Subotai or Kublai Khan have the same baggage.

Edited December 4, 2022 by Zoraptor

[xzar_monty]

8 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

Not the first time either, see Ivan the Terrible where Terrible is technically an accurate translation of Grozny, but it's in the near archaic sense you get in Battle Hymn of the Republic's "Terrible swift sword". Tempestuous or Stormy is a far more accurate literal translation and 'righteous' probably the closest figurative one.

This stuff can be funny, by the way, once you speak a fair number of languages. Ivan, for instance, wasn't "terrible" for me growing up, since I didn't grow up speaking English. It was only later that I learned that the epithet had been translated that way, too.

There must be a pretty serious discrepancy between two different title or epithet translations somewhere, but I can't think of one just now.

[Gorth]

It's a full hour, but I thought it worth watching (life in the Ukrainian "Foreign Legion")... some surprising feedback on different countries fighting forces at times

 

 

 

[xzar_monty]

This looks interesting. Are Ukraine capable of more long-range hits now?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/05/explosions-russia-airbases-far-from-ukraine-frontline-bombers

[Azdeus]

6 hours ago, Gorth said:

It's a full hour, but I thought it worth watching (life in the Ukrainian "Foreign Legion")... some surprising feedback on different countries fighting forces at times

 

 

 

I'm honestly surprised someone claimed to be an "Arctic Ranger" from Sweden. They haven't been around since 2000.

[Gorth]

2 minutes ago, Azdeus said:

I'm honestly surprised someone claimed to be an "Arctic Ranger" from Sweden. They haven't been around since 2000.

Maybe they decided to come out of retirement?

[Azdeus]

12 minutes ago, Gorth said:

Maybe they decided to come out of retirement?

Theoretically possible, but they'd be in their 50's at the very least.

Also; I don't think an actual "Arctic Ranger" would call themselves that, that what we call civilian hunters. I reckon it's the same situation as with Marines/Soldiers/Sailors. Atleast it was when I spoke to one when I was young.

Edited December 5, 2022 by Azdeus

[Malcador]

1 hour ago, xzar_monty said:

This looks interesting. Are Ukraine capable of more long-range hits now?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/05/explosions-russia-airbases-far-from-ukraine-frontline-bombers

Maybe ? Guess they can stop bleating about ATACMS soon.

Edited December 5, 2022 by Malcador

[Lexx]

I mean, you can never have enough long range ammo.

[Malcador]

Coincided with a missile attack today as well, although Ukraine claims most intercepted.  NATO intelligence is useful again.

[Mamoulian War]

22 hours ago, pmp10 said:

Russia to refuse oil sales under price cap, aims to cut production instead.
I wonder how serious they are on this.
The price cap was set at a market rate exactly so they keep-on pumping. 

  

Just look at the context of what was being said just a few weeks / months ago.

Ukraine went from 'never talking to Putin' to 'maybe talking to Putin'.
US went from 'talks are up to Ukraine' to 'maybe we would talk to Putin without Ukraine'.
Germany went from 'energy independence from Russia' to 'maybe some energy dependence on Russia'.
France went from 'invasion being unprovoked' to 'maybe the invasion was provoked'. (why else would Russia need guarantees?)

Macron might be forced to back-down on his statement but the western lines are visibly (if slowly) shifting.

Has Russia made any similar concessions regarding the future existence of Ukrainian state and its independence?
I expect not but I might have missed them.

This is a very good explanation, why the “sudden” shift. TL;DW. For the western voters, it is much easier to accept further weapon deliveries to Ukraine, if Ukraine shows willingness to negotiate in the future.

And regarding guarantees. Of course Russia would need guarantees, after such an abysmal performance of their army. When they’ll be finished by UAF, they will need all king of guarantees, else would Mongolia start to claim their rightful historical territories which were part of their country during Temujin’s reign.

Edited December 5, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[Mamoulian War]

2 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

This looks interesting. Are Ukraine capable of more long-range hits now?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/05/explosions-russia-airbases-far-from-ukraine-frontline-bombers

Nah, it was probably just another smoking accident

although it made some Telegram militants very angry

 

[Gfted1]

30 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

And regarding guarantees. Of course Russia would need guarantees, after such an abysmal performance of their army. When they’ll be finished by UAF, they will need all king of guarantees, else would Mongolia start to claim their rightful historical territories which were part of their country during Temujin’s reign.

If not for nukes, theyd be the Europe and Asia rooster.

[Malcador]

 

[xzar_monty]

14 hours ago, Gfted1 said:

If not for nukes, theyd be the Europe and Asia rooster.

Precisely. Everyone of course knows this already, but "if not for nukes", Russia would have been obliterated as a military force in mid-March at the latest. (But then, "if not for nukes", it wouldn't have attacked, so...)

Btw, I find the sheer amount of these photos quite strange. My military expertise is close to zero, but it feels odd that there are these clearly (right?) unexploded missiles all over the place. Why's that?

 

Edited December 6, 2022 by xzar_monty

[Mamoulian War]

6 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

Precisely. Everyone of course knows this already, but "if not for nukes", Russia would have been obliterated as a military force in mid-March at the latest. (But then, "if not for nukes", it wouldn't have attacked, so...)

Btw, I find the sheer amount of these photos quite strange. My military expertise is close to zero, but it feels odd that there are these clearly (right?) unexploded missiles all over the place. Why's that?

 

Yesterday Russia launched again approx 70 missiles against Ukraine. According to official sources, 89% of them were shot down by Air Defense. This picture is one of these intercepted missiles. Out of these 11% which got through AD, none has hit critical infrastructure, just some secondary infrastructure. This caused approx 2 hours of power outage, and IIRC 5 dead civilians. Estimated cost of this attack is half billion USD. 
 

It was expected that over 100 missiles would be launched yesterday, but it looks like the attack on two airports has caused no strategic bombers were used yesterday. According to Arestovych 2 strategic bombers were damaged, and 2 destroyed. Which is approximately 20% of all Russian strategic bombers, out of which TU-22M and Tu-95 are not produced anymore and TU-160s are constructed in tempo of 1 piece over several years. So this is significant loss to Russia.

[Gfted1]

6 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

Btw, I find the sheer amount of these photos quite strange. My military expertise is close to zero, but it feels odd that there are these clearly (right?) unexploded missiles all over the place. Why's that?

In addition to the above reply, I think Russia is also trying to "drain down" the Ukraine air defense stocks by launching a lot of inert and old missiles. Ukraine cant know which is live and which is a dummy so they have to react to everything.

[Chilloutman]

9 minutes ago, Gfted1 said:

In addition to the above reply, I think Russia is also trying to "drain down" the Ukraine air defense stocks by launching a lot of inert and old missiles. Ukraine cant know which is live and which is a dummy so they have to react to everything.

Well I am not sure about that part about 'dummy' - navigation and rocket itself are the most 'costly' parts of the system itself. payload is just a bonus - does not make much sense to take it out if you are going to shoot it anyway no?

[Gorth]

5 minutes ago, Chilloutman said:

Well I am not sure about that part about 'dummy' - navigation and rocket itself are the most 'costly' parts of the system itself. payload is just a bonus - does not make much sense to take it out if you are going to shoot it anyway no?

A number of dead tank operators where the reactive armour was missing the explosives, may disagree on that. If it can be sold, odds are, somebody might have tried to pawn it off for a bit of cash and a bottle of vodka.

Edit: Who's going to discover it anyway, there are so many missiles and Russia is not at war after all. It can't hurt with a little bonus before the holidays (which is in early January for the Orthodox Christians, if I remember correctly what my Serbian friends told me)