Ukraine Conflict - "Politics is war without bloodshed while war is politics with bloodshed"

[kanisatha]

Well, according to the official Russian government line, this is NOT a general draft or conscription. Under Russia's preexisting system, anyone who served in the military in any capacity and for any length of time and then left the service is in the "reserves" until a certain age is reached (40 or 50?). Russia has, on paper, 900,000 such "reservists." It is these reservists who are being "mobilized," which is to say being called back into service, and, according to Putin's and Shoigu's statements, only a select number of them accounting for one-third of all those available. Then, of the 300k being called up, the expectation is that only about 10% will be available for combat duty (so, excluding those who are physically unfit, ill, more useful in the civilian economy, better used for some non-combat role, etc.).

[Mamoulian War]

Ukrainian trolling, despite their suffering or more like, to overcome their suffering, is getting better day by day

 

[xzar_monty]

Not sure if this is reliable. But if indeed not even Serbia will recognize Russia's sham referendums, it is good news.

 

[BruceVC]

https://rs.n1info.com/english/news/serbias-fm-we-can-not-accept-results-of-referendums-in-ukraine/

Serbia wont accept the sham Ukrainian referendums

 

@Sarex Im impressed, your country is moving in the right direction 

[Sarex]

Just now, xzar_monty said:

Not sure if this is reliable. But if indeed not even Serbia will recognize Russia's sham referendums, it is good news.

 

Why would it not be? We don't recognize Crimea either.

[xzar_monty]

11 minutes ago, Sarex said:

Why would it not be? We don't recognize Crimea either.

I don't know, I made no claim either way, and simply pointed out that I don't know if the information was reliable. I regard your comment as confirmation that the info is true, which is good, so thanks for that.

[kanisatha]

Hardly anyone will recognize the sham referenda. Even countries that abstained in previous UN votes will reject these sham referenda because otherwise they would be supporting one country unilaterally using force to take another country's territory which will surely come back to bite them on the ass at some point in the future. So even countries like China and India will not accept Russia forcibly taking territory that everyone in the UN recognizes and accepts as Ukrainian territory. They're not gonna' want to see a similar situation vis-a-vis Taiwan or Kashmir.

[BruceVC]

1 hour ago, xzar_monty said:

I don't know, I made no claim either way, and simply pointed out that I don't know if the information was reliable. I regard your comment as confirmation that the info is true, which is good, so thanks for that.

Well Im surprised you dont know why it may not he true? Its because Serbia is generally pro-Putin and often Serbs defend Russia and the atrocities they have committed within Ukraine 

[BruceVC]

3 minutes ago, kanisatha said:

Hardly anyone will recognize the sham referenda. Even countries that abstained in previous UN votes will reject these sham referenda because otherwise they would be supporting one country unilaterally using force to take another country's territory which will surely come back to bite them on the ass at some point in the future. So even countries like China and India will not accept Russia forcibly taking territory that everyone in the UN recognizes and accepts as Ukrainian territory. They're not gonna' want to see a similar situation vis-a-vis Taiwan or Kashmir.

But how would this be different to Crimea? Did anyone recognize that illegal annexing, it still didn't stop Putin ?

[Malcador]

4 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

Not sure if this is reliable. But if indeed not even Serbia will recognize Russia's sham referendums, it is good news.

 

Given they don't recognize Crimea...big deal ? Consider the precedent set if they did

Hm, given the mobilization, next thread will be "wollt ihr den totalen krieg" ?

Edited September 25, 2022 by Malcador

[Elerond]

It would be stranger if Serbia would recognize independence of areas that self declare themselves as independent 

China has similar opposition against part of country declaring itself independent.

[Mamoulian War]

Same with Slovakia, our previous Pro-Russian government never recognized annexation of Crimea, neither our pre-previous and current pro-western government recognized the creation of Kosovo.

Edited September 25, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[Mamoulian War]

Impact of mobilization on Russian demographics.

 

 

[Darkpriest]

@BruceVC

Not sure what is there to laugh about... 

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/pound-flash-crashes-500-pips-record-low-amid-global-fx-carnage

 

I cant sleep. The magnitude of damage is beyond what I've been looking on previously....

[Zoraptor]

That's not directly Ukraine related, the proximal reason is tax cuts funded by £72bn more borrowing. I guess, technically, if they get ~4% GDP growth out of it they'll be ahead on the debt to GDP ratio balance, but it doesn't seem like anyone except Kwarteng and Truss expect it to work out like that.

(for anyone who doesn't check the article zerohedge blames the mini budget as well. The £150bn in already announced and Ukraine related energy cap costs will definitely not be helping though)

[Gorth]

12 hours ago, kanisatha said:

Hardly anyone will recognize the sham referenda. Even countries that abstained in previous UN votes will reject these sham referenda because otherwise they would be supporting one country unilaterally using force to take another country's territory which will surely come back to bite them on the ass at some point in the future. So even countries like China and India will not accept Russia forcibly taking territory that everyone in the UN recognizes and accepts as Ukrainian territory. They're not gonna' want to see a similar situation vis-a-vis Taiwan or Kashmir.

I think Israel and the occupied territories, including East Jerusalem and the Golan Heights, muddles the whole UN and territorial integrity/legitimacy thing a bit, making it harder for the rest of the world to keep a straight face while making grand claims....

 

Edit: Last time I checked, the country of Tibet was still occupied wholesale by it's larger neighbour (after China invaded it in 1952) without a lot of the same, self-righteous countries doing much about it.

 

Edit2: My way of saying some countries are acting rather hypocritical about the whole thing, applying different standards to different autocrats and their megalomaniac tendencies. Which means it's impossible to have any respect for statements or claims made by leaders of western countries until they get consistent in their support and condemnation of territorial transgressions.

[BruceVC]

1 hour ago, Gorth said:

I think Israel and the occupied territories, including East Jerusalem and the Golan Heights, muddles the whole UN and territorial integrity/legitimacy thing a bit, making it harder for the rest of the world to keep a straight face while making grand claims....

 

Edit: Last time I checked, the country of Tibet was still occupied wholesale by it's larger neighbour (after China invaded it in 1952) without a lot of the same, self-righteous countries doing much about it.

 

Edit2: My way of saying some countries are acting rather hypocritical about the whole thing, applying different standards to different autocrats and their megalomaniac tendencies. Which means it's impossible to have any respect for statements or claims made by leaders of western countries until they get consistent in their support and condemnation of territorial transgressions.

Did they also have  sham  referendums in the occupied territories and Tibet and then declare them part of the greater country?

These are good examples you mentioned, I just need links to confirm its the same thing? I couldnt find them but I assume you have them 

 

 

[BruceVC]

2 hours ago, Darkpriest said:

@BruceVC

Not sure what is there to laugh about... 

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/pound-flash-crashes-500-pips-record-low-amid-global-fx-carnage

 

I cant sleep. The magnitude of damage is beyond what I've been looking on previously....

I thought it's the hegemony and weaponization of the $ we want to  destroy with the new Russian\Chinese led world order? Is it Pound we after now....the British have just lost the Queen and now this, tough times. I think they need to cut back on eating Sunday Roasts?

What do you think Dark, Yorkshire Pudding and roast beef is expensive?

 

 

? Is it 

[Zoraptor]

1 hour ago, Gorth said:

Edit2: My way of saying some countries are acting rather hypocritical about the whole thing, applying different standards to different autocrats and their megalomaniac tendencies. Which means it's impossible to have any respect for statements or claims made by leaders of western countries until they get consistent in their support and condemnation of territorial transgressions.

Hmm yes. I wonder what Olaf Scholtz has been doing this week. It would be slightly ironic if he was off in Saudi Arabia begging Saudi/ MbS for energy...

[Gorth]

52 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

Did they also have  sham  referendums in the occupied territories and Tibet and then declare them part of the greater country?

These are good examples you mentioned, I just need links to confirm its the same thing? I couldnt find them but I assume you have them 

 

 

No referendums in any of the cases.... a few links

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_annexation_of_East_Jerusalem

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golan_Heights_Law (Trump being the only one recognizing the Israeli "de facto" annexation of part of Syria after military conquest)

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation_of_Tibet_by_the_People's_Republic_of_China

(to quote the wiki, China called it the "Peaceful Liberation of Tibet")

 

My argument being, that Tibet being occupied by various Qin Emperors for a while is no more a legit reason for invading and occupying a country than the Russian attempt at doing the same because Ukraine was occupied by various Russian Czars in the past. The similarities are hard to overlook. The differences in response and sanctions are easy to overlook.

[BruceVC]

1 minute ago, Gorth said:

No referendums in any of the cases.... a few links

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_annexation_of_East_Jerusalem

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golan_Heights_Law (Trump being the only one recognizing the Israeli "de facto" annexation of part of Syria after military conquest)

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation_of_Tibet_by_the_People's_Republic_of_China

(to quote the wiki, China called it the "Peaceful Liberation of Tibet")

 

My argument being, that Tibet being occupied by various Qin Emperors for a while is no more a legit reason for invading and occupying a country than the Russian attempt at doing the same because Ukraine was occupied by various Russian Czars in the past. The similarities are hard to overlook. The differences in response and sanctions are easy to overlook.

All occupations are wrong, I think we can all agree on that

But what Putin is doing is different. He is trying to recreate borders again  without international and UN support and he is doing it through an obviously and deeply flawed " referendum " 

Then this will be used to legitimize  the Ukrainian military advancement and success as an attack on the " sovereign " territory of Russia and then this  justifies threatening to use nukes?

And this is  something created by him when Russia invaded in February. So this referendum should and will be heavily condemned by most and its not something only the West is saying, it creates a dangerous geopolitical reality for all  of us

Why should the rest of the world be threatened by the fallout  of nukes in the region because of the hubris and sociopathic tendencies of Putin? 

The entire objective of having this referendum is because of the failures of Putins War and its military objectives. Its not the same as those other examples IMO ?

 

[Gorth]

5 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

The entire objective of having this referendum is because of the failures of Putins War and its military objectives. Its not the same as those other examples IMO ?

 

I'm *not* saying Putin is right (that wasn't the question). I'm saying "The West" is a bunch of hypocrites for not treating aggressors by the same measuring

stick (and apply the same consequences).

 

Edit: Added the 'not' because I hit submit before proof reading

[xzar_monty]

2 hours ago, Gorth said:

I'm *not* saying Putin is right (that wasn't the question). I'm saying "The West" is a bunch of hypocrites for not treating aggressors by the same measuring

stick (and apply the same consequences).

To a considerable extent this is quite true, as sad as it is. However, despite the hypocrisy it is much better that "The West" does respond to Putin with the vehemence that it has responded with; the alternative would be much worse. It doesn't invalidate your point, of course, but I would argue that it adds a dimension to it.

Supposing that the conflict goes "well" for "The West" (Putin's loss without a nuclear disaster, say), it will be interesting to see whether there'll be wholesale political changes in relation to China. The discussion about that has started in some Nordic countries, at least -- which, of course, in global terms, is not much.

Two interesting video clips this morning, neither of which I'll post because of their violent nature. In the first one, a Russian draft commissioner is shot from very close distance in the Irkutsk Oblast, so individual opposition to the mobilisation can be quite decisive. The second one is yet another example of the brutality of the Russian army towards its members: a drone drops an explosive on four walking soldiers. It ends very badly for at least one of them, but my point is related to the fact that none of them appear to give a toss about any of the others, it's every man for himself. This goes against everything I have ever learned and seen about every other army in the world. And this has been demonstrated in video after video, when it comes to the Russian army, and that's why it appears more like an armed mob than a proper army. Frankly, I find it absolutely astonishing: how is it possible that there is apparently no camaraderie and no regard for the life of your fellow soldiers?

Edited September 26, 2022 by xzar_monty

[Gorth]

26 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

Two interesting video clips this morning, neither of which I'll post because of their violent nature. In the first one, a Russian draft commissioner is shot from very close distance in the Irkutsk Oblast, so individual opposition to the mobilisation can be quite decisive. The second one is yet another example of the brutality of the Russian army towards its members: a drone drops an explosive on four walking soldiers. It ends very badly for at least one of them, but my point is related to the fact that none of them appear to give a toss to any of the others, it's every man for himself. This goes against everything I have ever learned and seen about every other army in the world. And this has been demonstrated in video after video, when it comes to the Russian army, and that's why it appears more like an armed mob than a proper army. Frankly, I find it absolutely astonishing: how is it possible that there is apparently no camaraderie and no regard for the life of your fellow soldiers?

I've seen the second video (and no, it really doesn't belong on these forums, so thank you for not posting it ). It all leaves you with that feeling, that the bulk of the Russian army is made up of uneducated thugs led by slightly educated but rotten to the core, corrupt crooks.

Hence why you get all the seemingly unnecessary cruelty and brutality. Those young men didn't want to be in a war but got issued a gun and shipped off to a war zone. No leadership or direction (militarily or ethically), so they take it out on anything. The Ukrainian army, the Ukrainian people and each other too. It's a two edged sword, because if they had been a well led and well motivated force, Ukraine would not have suffered a lot of the civilian casualties, but they would also long since have been part of the Russian Federation again (even with Russian obsolete, meme worthy hardware).

[xzar_monty]

9 minutes ago, Gorth said:

It's a two edged sword, because if they had been a well led and well motivated force, Ukraine would not have suffered a lot of the civilian casualties, but they would also long since have been part of the Russian Federation again (even with Russian obsolete, meme worthy hardware).

Yes, precisely, these are rather bitter points. It doesn't feel good to realize that the endemic Russian corruption, ineptitude, inefficiency, poor training, abysmal morale, terrible leadership and all the rest of it are good things. Ukraine would be long gone if it wasn't for all that.