Ukraine Conflict - "Politics is war without bloodshed while war is politics with bloodshed"

[Zoraptor]

1 hour ago, Chilloutman said:

so it seems pipes were blown up, and for that you need subs. Who in that region operate subs? Does poland even have subs? If so its master play on Poland side xD

Divers others have mentioned, but the other main alternative to a sub is a Remote Operated Vehicle, ie underwater drone.

[BruceVC]

8 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

Because you most likely do not have subscribtions to TSY auction services or i would be surprised if you are not paywalled even on Bloomberg. 

I guess providing a lin with free info is bad... 

Check your local bond market and fx rate, plus check your local stock market, and lastly check your local goods and services prices... and owners of businesses sentiment... 

Is the oil price still going to get to $140?

[Darkpriest]

Just now, BruceVC said:

Is the oil price still going to get to $140?

Not that high due to recession and current debt issues, but it will go north of 100 around mid winter. 100-110 range, but going higher is still possible, if EU will have to burn oil instead of gas for energy needs. 

[Gorgon]

Gigawatt hour  price is set to surpass 600% of what it was last year. Industry on the whole is going to slow to a crawl. 

[xzar_monty]

According to Der Spiegel, CIA warned Germany about possible strikes on the pipes several weeks ago.

Also, unidentified drones spotted around Norwegian oil and gas infrastructure.

Perhaps Russia has started a scorched-sea policy.

 

@Gorgon: I'm sort of becoming interested in what you've been about to say.

Edited September 27, 2022 by xzar_monty

[Chilloutman]

32 minutes ago, Zoraptor said:

Divers others have mentioned, but the other main alternative to a sub is a Remote Operated Vehicle, ie underwater drone.

you still need boat to get nearby tho

[Mamoulian War]

1 hour ago, Gorgon said:

What the hell

That is the issue with cookies. Happend to me on weekend. For me ot solved to accept Social Media cookies and reload the page.

[Mamoulian War]

1 hour ago, Chilloutman said:

you still need boat to get nearby tho

Ukraine has marine drones able to get from Odessa to Sevastopol, without loss of a signal. So I presume other countries could have something similar for underwater use as well.

Edited September 27, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[Gfted1]

Mystery Drone Boat Washes Up Near Home Of Russia's Black Sea Fleet (Updated) (thedrive.com)

[Mamoulian War]

Google translate of current energy situation in EU and Slovakia from Slovak Data Crunchers from 1 day ago: 

source: https://www.facebook.com/databezpatosu/

“OVERVIEW OF ENERGY k .  SEPTEMBER
 EUR/USD EXCHANGE: We have expanded the table and in the last line you can find the development of the EUR to USD exchange rate.  All energy raw materials are quoted in USD and therefore a 20% year-on-year exchange rate drop is in itself very bad news and the trend is still unfavorable for the EU (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EURUSD=X/)
 GAS STOCKS: We have also added the status of gas storages in the EU.  The absolutely fantastic news is 87.4% occupancy yesterday and an increase of 9% over the last month and 2% over the last week (https://gas.kyos.com/gas/eu)
 DEVELOPMENTS IN THE LAST WEEK:
  The price of oil, both BRENT and URAL, dropped significantly.  The Urals are lower today than they were a year ago
 Finally, following the increase in production capacities (MOL started) in the refineries, the price of diesel fell below 1.80.  Gasoline is stable, but in the next few days both types of fuel will certainly drop further.  Production at OMV is to start at the beginning of October.
  Gas reserves increased by 2 billion m3, France is at 96%, Germany at 91%, Italy and the Netherlands are at 89%, Slovakia reached 87%.  Stocks were by no means this high last year, and the EU aimed for such high values by the end of October.  The development is very good and soon the stacks will be full.
  The price of gas fell to less than half of the maximum values like this a month ago.  This happened despite the fact that just a month ago, the flow through Nordstream I was stopped and there should have been less gas.  It's not like that.  Russia delivers about 8% of EU imports on a daily basis and it is 1/5 of the deliveries from previous years.
  The price of "base load" electricity also dropped to less than half of the maximum values like this a month ago.
  In the EU, French nuclear reactors started up after repairs (+8GW), the wind is starting to blow in Western and Northern Europe (+25GW in the short term) and the output of hydropower plants has increased due to the increase in precipitation.  Coal-fired power plants (+8GW) also started up after the rise in the level of the Rhine and after the resumption of coal supplies in Germany.
  We put a heart here, because most of the fundamental factors are developing WELL and prices are falling.  This is due to the increase in supply and sometimes in combination with a decrease in demand.  This applies to oil, fuel, gas and electricity.  The exception is the EUR/USD exchange rate, which remains a pain.”

 

[Mamoulian War]

And a super expensive hit at Dnepr river in Kherson Oblast

 

[Zoraptor]

1 hour ago, Chilloutman said:

you still need boat to get nearby tho

For a Bob Ballard/ Titanic type situation, sure. But that was both ~40 years ago now and literally multiple km deep in the Atlantic instead of ~80m. The general rule is that if you can get a squishy meat sack to something you can get a mechanical object there more easily, at least physically, since you don't have to protect the squishy meatsack part. While the squishy meatsack is generally more flexible in what it can do if you just want to blow something up then mechanical is perfectly fine.

In this situation you don't even need necessarily to rescue the drone afterwards, you could use the underwater equivalent of a 'suicide drone'* and chuck it off the back of any old ship, a yacht, a speedboat. You definitely have the problem of needing some sort of recovery vessel/ means if using frogmen too. Realistically though either way you can obfuscate timing by using a delayed or remote trigger, so presence or lack of ships at a specific time means little.

*--> ~torpedo really, much as most aerial 'suicide drones' --> ~cruise missiles.

[Darkpriest]

The ****? 

Former Polish Foreign affairs minister said what? 

Implying US is behind the sabotage? 

Can't be true... I mean it can, but damn... Can't believe it. Most likely some lapse of mind and lack of political awareness... He beat even Truss in the race to the bottom of intelectual cesspool. Ape level of awareness... 

 

Edited September 27, 2022 by Darkpriest

[Elerond]

2 hours ago, Chilloutman said:

you still need boat to get nearby tho

There are so much marine traffic that area that no one will notice one civilian boat staying above the pipes

 

EDIT: He is just idiot, as you can see from this Russian foreign ministry's tweet where they use it as tool of their propaganda 

Edited September 27, 2022 by Elerond

[Malcador]

Greenpeace sends their regards.

[Mamoulian War]

From mobilization to POW in 6 days. Probably a WR.

 

[Elerond]

President of the European Commission threatens those responsible with nuclear war

[Zoraptor]

(1) not even von der Leyen is that dumb and (2) Neither Nordstream is active energy infrastructure

41 minutes ago, Elerond said:

EDIT: He is just idiot, as you can see from this Russian foreign ministry's tweet where they use it as tool of their propaganda 

Maybe, but it's not like it's come from a vacuum.

"There will no longer be a NS2. We'll bring an end to it."-- Joe Biden Feb 7 2022

[Elerond]

Considering it has been over 7 months and main target seem to have been Nord Stream 1, that Biden's statement seem bit stretch to use especially when rest of Biden's speech was about sanctions.

[Darkpriest]

1 minute ago, Elerond said:

Considering it has been over 7 months and main target seem to have been Nord Stream 1, that Biden's statement seem bit stretch to use especially when rest of Biden's speech was about sanctions.

It might, but it sure does give a field day, should you look at it in the vacuum. 

 

Looking however at parties, who benefit the most, US is up there, next to Ukraine and to less extent Poland. 

Unfortunate for the wholse situation is the fact that this ex-Minister has really good ties with US political class, especially dems. I suspect that this may change soon, or we will hear the old story of 'my account got hacked' 

 

Some 'tinfoil' theory is that this was a price of UA for bleeding more of their people. To make sure that gas does not flow to EU without UA and Poland routes. This would block the incoming winter hesitance and pressure on UA. Again, unfortunately coming coincidentally at the same time when the spat over UA transit escalates. 

 

 

[Darkpriest]

For the 'unbelievers' such as @xzar_monty, i present you also some more freebies...

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/true-carnage-stock-market-selloff-wipes-13-trillion-in-market-cap-off-broad-u-s-benchmark-11664307419?mod=home-page

Now, the how much more pain before the bottom we hit, depends on the Oct earnings season, especially the fwd guidance by the companies. If those will be in majority misses against expectations, and we see no intervention by central bankers to calm down the debt / fx markets, stocks will crater on the P/E catching up its correlation to some other metrics and VIX will explode higher to catch up to MOVE. Looking by latest production increase withdrawal by Apple, the fwd guidance looks to be grim. 

 

All brought to you by Dems stimmies in 2021, Fed Powel chicken in 2021 to hold his chair, and goading Russia by US and UK, which led to invasion of Ukraine, and then Western economies crippling themselves with sanctions against the commodities giant - Russia. 

 

Like a clockwork... My mantra of end of Q3/early Q4 crash... 

How are your friends in banking feeling on the sentiment now @BruceVC?

 

 

[BruceVC]

9 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

For the 'unbelievers' such as @xzar_monty, i present you also some more freebies...

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/true-carnage-stock-market-selloff-wipes-13-trillion-in-market-cap-off-broad-u-s-benchmark-11664307419?mod=home-page

Now, the how much more pain before the bottom we hit, depends on the Oct earnings season, especially the fwd guidance by the companies. If those will be in majority misses against expectations, and we see no intervention by central bankers to calm down the debt / fx markets, stocks will crater on the P/E catching up its correlation to some other metrics and VIX will explode higher to catch up to MOVE. Looking by latest production increase withdrawal by Apple, the fwd guidance looks to be grim. 

 

All brought to you by Dems stimmies in 2021, Fed Powel chicken in 2021 to hold his chair, and goading Russia by US and UK, which led to invasion of Ukraine, and then Western economies crippling themselves with sanctions against the commodities giant - Russia. 

 

Like a clockwork... My mantra of end of Q3/early Q4 crash... 

How are your friends in banking feeling on the sentiment now @BruceVC?

 

 

More or less the same as 2008, they will ride the storm and the markets will recover as always

My UK family are more upset with things like BREXIT outstanding issues and current economic policies from   Truss on the "mini-budget " but its too early to predict 

But your predictions have never been accurate because all you do is repeat what the  ZH says? You have made numerous predictions as statements of fact and none of them have been true...these include

 

• oil price getting to $140
• Gas price crashing the EU by July
• The collapse of the EU economy by third quarter, now you pushing it to fourth quarter
• The end of the $ as the worlds reserve currency because the $ has been " weaponized " 
• The creation of a new world economic order where Russia is going to create viable institutions to the likes of the current established Western economic structures

And then no one knew Truss was going to become the UK PM or what policies she was going implement or how the markets would respond with these tax cuts and the impact to the pound 

So all  ZH makes is  predictions on things that have nothing to do with Putins War, sure they get some things right. Its easy to do that when central banks raise interest rates which always have an impact on a countries economy especially while the world is battling global inflation

But  what you still wrong about is the West didn't goad Putin into invading Ukraine. His arrogance and belief that the West wouldn't respond effectively led to this. The economic fallout from this is on Putin

And the sanctions are never going to stop until Putins War is over, the West is never going to accept the unprovoked invasion of Ukraine and this threat to the stability of the EU 

I like you and I enjoy your posts but I dont take your predictions seriously because they mostly ZH hyperbole and its about anti-Western sentiment 

 

 

[xzar_monty]

1 hour ago, Darkpriest said:

For the 'unbelievers' such as @xzar_monty, i present you also some more freebies...

I have made no comment on the situation itself, I have only pointed out that your sources are not trustworthy.

Edited September 28, 2022 by xzar_monty

[Darkpriest]

3 hours ago, BruceVC said:

More or less the same as 2008, they will ride the storm and the markets will recover as always

My UK family are more upset with things like BREXIT outstanding issues and current economic policies from   Truss on the "mini-budget " but its too early to predict 

But your predictions have never been accurate because all you do is repeat what the  ZH says? You have made numerous predictions as statements of fact and none of them have been true...these include

 

• oil price getting to $140
• Gas price crashing the EU by July
• The collapse of the EU economy by third quarter, now you pushing it to fourth quarter
• The end of the $ as the worlds reserve currency because the $ has been " weaponized " 
• The creation of a new world economic order where Russia is going to create viable institutions to the likes of the current established Western economic structures

And then no one knew Truss was going to become the UK PM or what policies she was going implement or how the markets would respond with these tax cuts and the impact to the pound 

So all  ZH makes is  predictions on things that have nothing to do with Putins War, sure they get some things right. Its easy to do that when central banks raise interest rates which always have an impact on a countries economy especially while the world is battling global inflation

But  what you still wrong about is the West didn't goad Putin into invading Ukraine. His arrogance and belief that the West wouldn't respond effectively led to this. The economic fallout from this is on Putin

And the sanctions are never going to stop until Putins War is over, the West is never going to accept the unprovoked invasion of Ukraine and this threat to the stability of the EU 

I like you and I enjoy your posts but I dont take your predictions seriously because they mostly ZH hyperbole and its about anti-Western sentiment 

 

 

I'll bite this. 

1) Oil - I've mentioned that the rising oil price will break economies, I've said that at 130, the next recession is guaranteed. We did not reach 140+ ONLY BECAUSE China went into a semi shutdow  on economic activity with their 0 COVID policy, and at the same time Biden has been draining SPR as otherwise the midterms would be a garbage for Dems. 'Paper' Oil market currently is out of sync with realities of the Supply side and while in the USD terms Oil seems to be cheaper, this is largely a factor of the ultra strong USD (keeps getting higher to new historic heights at least per Bloombergs dollar index). Sauds have warned a couple times that the current price is distorted and too low. For non-USD countries, the lower USD price is of little value when their currencies crater against the USD. They still pay a lot for Oil in terms of local purchasing power. 

Guess what, at some point SPR MUST be refilled and China re-opens. 

Edit: for historic context look at SPR in the 5y range

https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_ending_stocks_of_crude_oil_in_the_strategic_petroleum_reserve#:~:text=Basic Info,31.19% from one year ago.

The 140 was also a Goldmans estimate and some of the banks are now still even more aggresive on the Oil price than mine 100-110 range for the mid winter. Some are at 125.

OPEC+has been consistently delivering quatas below the target and recently they approved a significant reduction to the supply side. 

2) Not sure how you describe the current state of EU economy if not crushed by the energy prices resulting from the gas crunch... (and high oil price in EU terms). I mean, this is an end of Q3 and how much worse it has to get on the EU debt/currency/stocks if this is not enough? And I've been pointing to end of Q3/beginning of Q4 2022 from at least mid 2021 on this forum for a major economic crisis. 

3) I believe i mentioned this to be a target for 5-10y fwd as a result of USD caused turmoils and lack of trust in political safety (few want to be allowed to be blackmailed). The move to more commodity centric power structure is also described by top dogs in financial markets, see people like Zoltan P. 

4) Well, the BRICS is certainly not being dissolved, and as long as Russia is at War, this will not progress further. However, Russia has not been cut off from the global markets and is still able to do a lot of business. It still has some pull in politics due to being a natural resources giant. It definately did not collapse as people predicted, although I had make jokes about a flash crash of R(o)uble as well. 

 

I'm seriously worried here, that people do not even read things or see who is the article sourced from and posted on the ZH page. 

 

I'll write about the rest of your commentary later on. It's already a wall of text

Edited September 28, 2022 by Darkpriest

[Mamoulian War]

I bet Ukrainian people would do anything to be able to worry about life under an underperforming economy instead of living under Nuclear threats and ongoing genicide… 

Edited September 28, 2022 by Mamoulian War