Ukraine Conflict - "Politics is war without bloodshed while war is politics with bloodshed"

[Malcador]

3 hours ago, Lexx said:

1. It was America, because they don't want Germany to drop the sanctions in the future, and

Unlikely, but would be funny to see the US punch themselves in the face this way if/when it comes to light.

[Gfted1]

You know who wouldnt do you guys dirty like that...your dear old Uncle Sam. C'mon, sit a while, lets hammer out a reasonable deal for some of our LNG.

[Gorgon]

If it's Norway, I'll be impressed. 

[ShadySands]

I don't think we currently have the capacity to provide them with enough LNG

Edited September 27, 2022 by ShadySands

[Gfted1]

30 minutes ago, ShadySands said:

I don't think we currently have the capacity to provide them with enough LNG

If Im reading these articles correctly, the US can export 11.1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d): U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA - Independent Statistics and Analysis

And the entire EU only imported a total of 80 billion cubic meters (Bcm) in Y2021: Liquefied natural gas (europa.eu) 

Im not so good at maths so I wont bother converting the feet into meters but maybe its doable? Of course, transportations costs would scuttle the whole deal.

[ShadySands]

I think it was related to one of our main processing plants being shut down due to a fire. I don't remember the details but I was reading about it a few months ago

[Darkpriest]

43 minutes ago, Gfted1 said:

If Im reading these articles correctly, the US can export 11.1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d): U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA - Independent Statistics and Analysis

And the entire EU only imported a total of 80 billion cubic meters (Bcm) in Y2021: Liquefied natural gas (europa.eu) 

Im not so good at maths so I wont bother converting the feet into meters but maybe its doable? Of course, transportations costs would scuttle the whole deal.

That is, if there will not be another mysterious accident at LNG terminal in US whivh put it off line for two months this summer. 

 

Btw, in coincidence Ukraine pursues arbitrage even harder on fees from Gasprom at the time when those leaks got out of hand. I think they are playing this hand badly as Russia said it will hold UA pipeflows should they continue to do that. 

 

Gas prices already go vertical... And the winter apparently is coming sooner, at least based on the forecasts for EU for the next two weeks

 

Edit: you also need to be able to unload such capacities and trun liquid into gas again... Imagine if something happens at one of such stations in EU

 

Edit 2: in case there was a contingency to use oil for gas, think again... OPEC+ informed on heavy cuts, so the price is prompt for going up at a rapid pace again... 

 

I've been telling that this eco war will be most deatructive to EU and harmful to US and Russia

Edited September 27, 2022 by Darkpriest

[Chilloutman]

so it seems pipes were blown up, and for that you need subs. Who in that region operate subs? Does poland even have subs? If so its master play on Poland side xD

edit: they have one sub! 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ships_of_the_Polish_Navy#Submarines_(1)

[Darkpriest]

1 minute ago, Chilloutman said:

so it seems pipes were blown up, and for that you need subs. Who in that region operate subs? Does poland even have subs? If so its master play on Poland side xD

edit: they have one sub! 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ships_of_the_Polish_Navy#Submarines_(1)

You do not need subs, you can have a good divers team with the right equipment. That's why it can be anybody... 

Three theories appear. 

1) Russians, to put a blme on someone and be able to escalate. Although it does seem counterproductive as they lose leverage of being able to pump gas at will. 

2) Ukraine, to make sure that EU will be trapped and will have to work out alternatives for RU gas. They have divers capable of such feats. 

3) US, as Biden said, that they will make sure NS2 will never start to operate. This would nake sure EU is tight on US energy leash. They for sure have the means. 

More tinfoily

4) Poland, to put the gas pipe on Poland soil to be more crucial and gwt rid of the thorn that NS was... Current Gov is crazy and very anti-German. They have teams capable of such feats

 

5) some Eco freaks, who want 'greenification' of energy in EU. Since it is near Denmark, Sweden, some freaks like that live there, although being capable of such a feat is very questionable. 

 

 

Really, hard to say, who gains the most. EU, especially Germany, loses the most though... 

[Chilloutman]

ef Germany, maybe they will put excrement together and finally build nukes again. But I think that boat would be spotted. I don't think its that easy to do this without being noticed

[Gorgon]

The kind of thing frogmen train all day though

[InsaneCommander]

8 hours ago, majestic said:

One cannot dangle a carrot in front of a horse when it was cut off your stick, after all.

Well, there is carrot and stick. And there is stick and stick.

[Gorgon]

An ostensibly pro Russian government was just elected in Italy. NATO unity is certainly improved if the option to return to the Russian tit is no longer available. 

[xzar_monty]

2 hours ago, Gorgon said:

But Russia has no credibility left, so why even bother when they can just turn off the tap with another "accident" 

The Danish straits are fairly narrow, aren't they? This is one possible way of making them unusable or at least very difficult to use (for a while) and thus demonstrate who owns the Baltic. Maybe a sub from Kaliningrad has set sail underwater to show that there's plenty of non-nuclear nastiness that Russia is capable of, simply out of spite if nothing else. Conceivably, that's one reason to bother.

Of course I don't know who did it.

[Malcador]

4 minutes ago, Gorgon said:

An ostensibly pro Russian government was just elected in Italy. NATO unity is certainly improved if the option to return to the Russian tit is no longer available. 

Italy is not that key a part of the machine though, no? And they have Poland to make up for it.

[Mamoulian War]

2 hours ago, Gorgon said:

But Russia has no credibility left, so why even bother when they can just turn off the tap with another "accident" 

Because they still have “friends” in which eyes, they have to remain strong… like Eritrea, North Korea or Mali…

[Lexx]

"Relatives of men mobilized into the "Donetsk People's Republic Army" complained to Pushylin that their soldiers were raped by Kadyrov's Chechens."

https://nitter.net/JayinKyiv/status/1574661232971358209#m

[Darkpriest]

Meanwhile, things are crashing bad. 

I expect global central banks to intervene by the end of next week... 

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/gruesome-tailing-2y-auction-sends-yields-session-high-10y-399

 

Otherwise 2008 will be peanuts... 

[Gorgon]

57 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

The Danish straits are fairly narrow, aren't they? This is one possible way of making them unusable or at least very difficult to use (for a while) and thus demonstrate who owns the Baltic. Maybe a sub from Kaliningrad has set sail underwater to show that there's plenty of non-nuclear nastiness that Russia is capable of, simply out of spite if nothing else. Conceivably, that's one reason to bother.

Of course I don't know who did it.

[Gorgon]

Wow the board software is really not that good. It seems to be incapable of detecting what you have written if you have made any changes. 

[xzar_monty]

31 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

Meanwhile, things are crashing bad. 

I expect global central banks to intervene by the end of next week... 

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/gruesome-tailing-2y-auction-sends-yields-session-high-10y-399

Furnishing your predictions with zerohedge links is like basing your world history on von Däniken, though.

[Gorgon]

6 minutes ago, Gorgon said:

1 hour ago, xzar_monty said:

The Danish straits are fairly narrow, aren't they? This is one possible way of making them unusable or at least very difficult to use (for a while) and thus demonstrate who owns the Baltic. Maybe a sub from Kaliningrad has set sail underwater to show that there's plenty of non-nuclear nastiness that Russia is capable of, simply out of spite if nothing else. Conceivably, that's one reason to bother.

Of course I don't know who did it.

[Gorgon]

What the hell

[Gorgon]

hello

can 

I 

have

more 

than 

one 

line 

please

[Darkpriest]

15 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

Furnishing your predictions with zerohedge links is like basing your world history on von Däniken, though.

Because you most likely do not have subscribtions to TSY auction services or i would be surprised if you are not paywalled even on Bloomberg. 

I guess providing a lin with free info is bad... 

Check your local bond market and fx rate, plus check your local stock market, and lastly check your local goods and services prices... and owners of businesses sentiment...