Ukraine Conflict - "There is no instance of a nation benefitting from prolonged warfare"

[kanisatha]

Today NATO released an assessment that Russia's most elite and premiere large-scale army formation, the 1st Guards Tank Army, operating in the Donbas, is now effectively a ghost formation with no military capability, and that without 1 GTA Russia no longer has the capacity for conventional military operations against NATO now and for several years to come. WOO-HOO!!

All you good folks in the Baltics, Finland, and eastern Europe can now relax and breath easy.

[Malcador]

26 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

IMHO, this will depend on how big ties they have made to Azerbaijan during this year, because they are significantly backed by Turkey, and Azerbaijan hates Russia as much as Georgia AFAIK. The other thing is, how big damage to UA will be able to do to Russia during the winter. 
 

To me it seems like foolish thing to do, but realistically, Georgia will not have better opportunity to get their territory back, than during this conflict. And you never know, maybe US will send one or two HIMARSes there with some backing as a goodwill gesture… Only Time will tell…

The only other possibility for Georgia to get it back would be, that if Ukraine’s victory would be so decisive, that they could force Russia to anything, when signing peace treaty. And as much as I would love to see that. I do not think, that this is realistic scenario in the foreseeable future…

The Armenia situation is funny, recalling all the talk of order and justice earlier.   US will need to donate a lot of weapons though, HIMARS is not God, either (the next US intervention will be interesting to see).

I doubt Ukraine cares that much to push Georgia or wherever else as part of a peace treaty - they're going to try to push the war as an existential threat to Russia for what ?

[Mamoulian War]

35 minutes ago, Malcador said:

The Armenia situation is funny, recalling all the talk of order and justice earlier.   US will need to donate a lot of weapons though, HIMARS is not God, either (the next US intervention will be interesting to see).

I doubt Ukraine cares that much to push Georgia or wherever else as part of a peace treaty - they're going to try to push the war as an existential threat to Russia for what ?

I think, the relationship between Ukraine and Georgia has been positively boosted during the war, as Georgian are amongst the most numbered members of foreign legions, and they have a lot of know-how about soviet era/russian doctrines, so they should be amongst the most useful as well.

As I said. We’ll see how this will unfold. As far as I know, even Estonia has raised demands to get back their territory, which was stolen from them by Russia during/after WW2…

[BruceVC]

2 hours ago, Malcador said:

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/exclusive-war-began-putin-rejected-ukraine-peace-deal-recommended-by-his-aide-2022-09-14/

Interesting to read, some Kremlin sources (I really value the third one less when they mention they just heard from other people so often) leaking this.

I absolutely believe this, Putin is a warmonger and believes in the indomitable view of " might makes right "   

[Zoraptor]

Excellent news about Russia no longer having the ability to threaten NATO.

The alliance can now be disbanded, since it's a purely defensive one and lacks a credible enemy! Certainly military spending can be greatly curtailed? Oh, it's still needed to defend against that well known North Atlantic superpower Klendathu*, uh, China?

*kind of funny they're following the playbook of a movie as unsubtle as Starship Troopers, but then it's mostly unsubtle because it's always been obvious how easy it is to whip people up into a frenzy about 'bugs', 'orcs', '****', 'nips' etc. And it's not like you got much complaint at prior "they aggressively put their country near our military bases" types arguments.

[heh, I guess at least the disparaging and racist term for Vietnamese is censored, feel free to replace it with some more modern epithet like towel head or hajji anyway]

Edited September 14, 2022 by Zoraptor

[Mamoulian War]

Russia has attacked with cruise missiles and damaged dam near Kryviy Rih and caused flood in the nearby area and down to Inhulets river up to City of Kherson, endangering tens of thousands civilians… I am awaiting how someone would argue that it was still “valid military target”, and then complain about how bad NATO is…

[Zoraptor]

Wouldn't be NATO which has done the equivalent in this case- it would be the US (Tabqa Dam, Syria). I'm not sure whether it makes it better or worse that it was on a 'do not target' list but still hit.

[Mamoulian War]

Yes, of course, because US army has been acting like **** in the past, we should not be bothered by Russian flooding villages and endangering half the Europe and Russia with the attacks on Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant, now.

[Mamoulian War]

As you said, this was on the No-strike list, so it was individual failure of some officer deciding to bomb it. And you have also omitted, that there was immediate ceasefire for all sides of the conflict, including ISIS to repair the damage and clear this **** up, and save the dam from collapsing. 
 

On the contrary, Russian continue to shell the NPP, and think, that all of us are completely stupid to eat their bull****, that the Ukrainian missiles are doing 180, just before the impacts, so it looks like their have been shot from the south…

[Malcador]

I guess they busted the dam to affect the river depth ? 

Hm, wonder what are worst case scenarios for the ZNPP though - it's a different type of reactor than Chernobyl they kept referencing in the news, for some reason. I'd expect any issue to be largely due to poisoning the Dniepr and I guess Black Sea as well, but not much further (as if that is a small distance)

18 minutes ago, Zoraptor said:

Wouldn't be NATO which has done the equivalent in this case- it would be the US (Tabqa Dam, Syria). I'm not sure whether it makes it better or worse that it was on a 'do not target' list but still hit.

Lucked out huge there it was a dud.

[Mamoulian War]

From my understanding about what is going on in ZNPP, the big ****up might happen if the backup power generators would stop working and there would be no power available for cooling aggregators? This would release the radioactivity into the air as well. I think it was one case, where it was very close to this situation (august 5, if I am correct). After this, the UA decided to put the NPP to cold shutdown, to minimise the risks. That still does not mean, that there are no risks, if they Russia continue to shell it…

But you are correct, the NPP should be safe enough to not go into Chernobyl type reaction, if **** hits the fan. But Chernobyl type event is still on top of the scale of danger, but still you would not not want to see anything to happen even on the lower levels of that hypothetical scale of nuclear disasters…

In any case NATO staff has very strongly declared, that any nuclear disaster which would kill/bring harm to people in any NATO country, would be considered as immediate activation of Article 5. Which will hopefully cool of the Russian idiot commanders who are ordering the shellings…

 

summary of “crisis” at ZNPP, whatever is the level of wikipedia’s trustworthiness in this case…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crisis_at_the_Zaporizhzhia_Nuclear_Power_Plant

Edited September 14, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[Zoraptor]

It literally cannot go into a Chernobyl type situation. Even an old RBMK reactor can't any more. My old pal Dyatlov had to try pretty hard to get the- very poorly designed- Chernobyl reactor to do what it did by turning off literally every safeguard except the one that didn't work.

The worst you could get would be a Fukushima type event and even that shouldn't happen since that was complete electrical failure from a 'hot' situation.

Honestly, this hysteria is 'but HiMARS don't cause fires!' level deliberate misinformation.

1 hour ago, Mamoulian War said:

..with the attacks on Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant, now.

Yes, the Russians continue to bomb themselves.

54 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

As you said, this was on the No-strike list, so it was individual failure of some officer deciding to bomb it.

No, it wasn't. It was most definitely not an isolated incident, just the most serious. Talon Anvil was given authority at the highest level to do what it wanted, including strike targets on the no strike list. And it was established in 2014, so cannot just be blamed on Donald Trump either.

1 hour ago, Mamoulian War said:

Yes, of course, because US army has been acting like **** in the past, we should not be bothered by Russian flooding villages and endangering half the Europe and Russia with the attacks on Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant, now.

(1) Don't ask for something you don't want the answer to then.

(2) Is there any indication I think either is OK? No? Then why do you keep claiming there is?

(3) The best way to get actual moral authority is, well, not to do bad stuff. If I can produce multiple examples of similar things being done by people you 'like' it isn't my fault they did it- unless I was a member of Talon Anvil which unsurprisingly I never was. If they hadn't done it there would be nothing to post, now would there.

Edited September 14, 2022 by Zoraptor

[Gorth]

4 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

But you are correct, the NPP should be safe enough to not go into Chernobyl type reaction, if **** hits the fan. But Chernobyl type event is still on top of the scale of danger, but still you would not not want to see anything to happen even on the lower levels of that hypothetical scale of nuclear disasters…

Chernobyl was one of those things that couldn't really happen. It took so much combined human stupidity and ignorance of the workings of the reactor to "provoke" the disaster. And when the (entirely man made, not an accident or coincidence) disaster started happening, all the wrong decisions were made to stop it and as a result exacerbated it. Level bombing the reactor with a squadron of B52's or the tectonic plates deciding to split apart underneath it couldn't have created outcomes as bad as the human operators managed to. Worst case scenario?... Sweden will get some new porn habits.

[BruceVC]

6 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

Russia has attacked with cruise missiles and damaged dam near Kryviy Rih and caused flood in the nearby area and down to Inhulets river up to City of Kherson, endangering tens of thousands civilians… I am awaiting how someone would argue that it was still “valid military target”, and then complain about how bad NATO is…

It was discussed on CNN that with the Russian military reversals and how the war is now being perceived within Russia the risk is now the Ruskies will indiscriminately target more civilian and " soft targets " like this dam

So we should expect this, its a case of " we getting beaten in the traditional military sense lets go after infrastructure " because then it can seen by supporters of the war as something retaliatory

Its deplorable  but its normal for the craven and failed Russian military strategy  

[Malcador]

Flooding doesn't seem all that bad, I believe the rules say "the release of dangerous forces and consequent severe losses among the civilian population."

https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/customary-ihl/eng/docs/v1_rul_rule42

Nicely written too, lots of wiggle room

[Mamoulian War]

@Zoraptoryes Russians are so ****ing stupid, that they bomb themselves at ZNPP, just go look for some pictures of craters and look at their directions… there is even a video of IAPP being on site and discussing the shell, which came from the south and the Russian clown is trying to convince them that the shell did 180 before the impact.

Impact craters are good enough evidence, which even you cannot dispute, even as you try to point it how ridiculous it is… Russian soldiers are ridiculous and ****ing stupid idiots who dig trenches in radioactive soil, defecate where they sleep and bomb their own positions… so no need for you to be as ridiculous with your statements as they are…

 

Edited September 15, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[Mamoulian War]

4 hours ago, Gorth said:

Chernobyl was one of those things that couldn't really happen. It took so much combined human stupidity and ignorance of the workings of the reactor to "provoke" the disaster. And when the (entirely man made, not an accident or coincidence) disaster started happening, all the wrong decisions were made to stop it and as a result exacerbated it. Level bombing the reactor with a squadron of B52's or the tectonic plates deciding to split apart underneath it couldn't have created outcomes as bad as the human operators managed to. Worst case scenario?... Sweden will get some new porn habits.

You are again forgetting one factor to include there. The Russian soldiers and officials on site They’ve shown us already, how “bright” they can be when they are around nuclear site at Chernobyl at the start of the year.

[BruceVC]

5 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

@Zoraptoryes Russians are so ****ing stupid, that they bomb themselves at ZNPP, just go look for some pictures of craters and look at their directions… there is even a video of IAPP being on site and discussing the shell, which came from the south and the Russian clown is trying to convince them that the shell did 180 before the impact.

Impact craters are good enough evidence, which even you cannot dispute, even as you try to point it how ridiculous it is… Russian soldiers are ridiculous and ****ing stupid idiots who dig trenches in radioactive soil, **** where they sleep and bomb their own positions… so no need for you to be as ridiculous with your statements as they are…

 

I agree, Zora's argument that the Russians wouldnt target ZNPP is unconvincing. The Ruskies have done several stupid things and made bad decisions in the interest of getting certain military outcomes

Its not about them " bombing themselves " so much as its a deliberate strategy where they arent concerned about the consequence 

 

[Mamoulian War]

Austrian Army have after a long while, published another analysis on RU-UA war.

 

[Elerond]

11 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

From my understanding about what is going on in ZNPP, the big ****up might happen if the backup power generators would stop working and there would be no power available for cooling aggregators? This would release the radioactivity into the air as well. I think it was one case, where it was very close to this situation (august 5, if I am correct). After this, the UA decided to put the NPP to cold shutdown, to minimise the risks. That still does not mean, that there are no risks, if they Russia continue to shell it…

But you are correct, the NPP should be safe enough to not go into Chernobyl type reaction, if **** hits the fan. But Chernobyl type event is still on top of the scale of danger, but still you would not not want to see anything to happen even on the lower levels of that hypothetical scale of nuclear disasters…

In any case NATO staff has very strongly declared, that any nuclear disaster which would kill/bring harm to people in any NATO country, would be considered as immediate activation of Article 5. Which will hopefully cool of the Russian idiot commanders who are ordering the shellings…

 

summary of “crisis” at ZNPP, whatever is the level of wikipedia’s trustworthiness in this case…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crisis_at_the_Zaporizhzhia_Nuclear_Power_Plant

VVER  reactors are much safer than Chernobyl's RBMK reactors in case of failures of cooling system.

As water around of core is used as coolant and moderator, which means that in case of technical failure of coolant circulation, water around the core will evaporate and form steam bubbles, and as water in steam form does not moderate neutrons this will reduce intensity of the reaction intensity.

So only loss power from cooling aggregators will not lead to nuclear disaster, but if for example core shell is damaged by artillery shell then there is possibility of nuclear disaster but not in scale of Chernobyl. But as ZNPP has six VVER-1000 reactors, there is possibility that if they all suffer damage that combined effect will lead to significant nuclear disaster.

[xzar_monty]

This kind of stuff is not very meaningful, but in terms of propaganda, it's poor. Surprising to see:

 

[Lexx]

Would be easier to just straight up use Arma 3 footage.

[Pidesco]

[Mamoulian War]

This is so hilarious, that one of the guest propagandists is unable to properly hold his laughter at 0:19

 

[Malcador]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-longer-range-us-missiles-kyiv-would-cross-red-line-2022-09-15/

Not too sure NATO's too scared of this.  Well, maybe Iran will suddenly find a bunch of Topol-M's left unattended in a parking lot somewhere.