Ukraine Conflict - "There is no instance of a nation benefitting from prolonged warfare"

[xzar_monty]

Sheesh, these guys just keep falling off things.

https://www.newsweek.com/putins-key-man-artic-found-dead-after-falling-overboard-1742218

[Mamoulian War]

That did not take very long
 

 

[xzar_monty]

Ukraine reports of a massive looting spree in Donbas and Kherson areas; hundreds of stolen cars roaming around as Russian soldiers steal everything from houses vacated by people fleeing the war. Here follows a list of all the people in the world surprised by something like this:

Presumably this might signal something slightly positive, too, in the sense that these soldiers are about to head home with their loot (but not much XP).

[Lexx]

Rumors are the "battle for donbass" has started. Apparently "big attack by Ukraine against Donetsk and Luchansk."

Personally I feel like some folks are a bit overhyped now. But nice dream to have, I guess.

Edited September 13, 2022 by Lexx

[xzar_monty]

Now, I am not an expert on this, but doesn't it look like the Crimean bridge and Putin's mansion should soon(ish) be in Ukrainian HIMARS range? Laugh away if I'm just completely unaware of what I'm talking about.

[Gorgon]

1 hour ago, xzar_monty said:

Sheesh, these guys just keep falling off things.

https://www.newsweek.com/putins-key-man-artic-found-dead-after-falling-overboard-1742218

Probably related to the epidemic of people, notably critics, falling from great heights. 

[Malcador]

5 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

Now, I am not an expert on this, but doesn't it look like the Crimean bridge and Putin's mansion should soon(ish) be in Ukrainian HIMARS range? Laugh away if I'm just completely unaware of what I'm talking about.

Shouldn't be, with the missiles most people think they have, the bridge wouldn't even be in range from Sevastapol, and Putin's palace is 130 km further away.

[Mamoulian War]

41 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

Now, I am not an expert on this, but doesn't it look like the Crimean bridge and Putin's mansion should soon(ish) be in Ukrainian HIMARS range? Laugh away if I'm just completely unaware of what I'm talking about.

With the current armament, the Kerch bridge would be in range only from deoccupied Crimea. Namely Primorsky city is the furthest one from where it would be reachable.

[xzar_monty]

Okay, so I was just uninformed and ignorant. Thanks for the corrections!

[Chilloutman]

or neptun missile

[Malcador]

Not sure it's in range for that either, maybe from Nova Kakhovka. 

[Mamoulian War]

15 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

Okay, so I was just uninformed and ignorant. Thanks for the corrections!

There is still a possibility of HRIM-2 system already existing. Neptune missiles were for everyone just a fiction, until they sunk Moskva. This one would be able to attack Kerch Bridge soon. But there is a lot of S400 around, and this if it exists, has definitely very limited stockpile of missiles, so shooting it to soon, might be just a waste of missiles and money for UA. 
 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hrim-2

Edited September 13, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[kanisatha]

16 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

I was thinking along those same lines. But then, should this spread enough, there are not going to be enough bombs, so things may change. Let us have some hope for that.

Zelensky's rethoric is fairly strong, and not bad at all, in his latest "address" to Russia:

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/12/europe/zelensky-message-kharkiv-russia-ukraine-intl/index.html

As a political scientist I am quite impressed how well, and consistently well, Zelenskiy has been with his political performance since the RU invasion. This particular line in that interview, which I had seen elsewhere, is pure political gold (and just plain awesome too):

"Cold, hunger, darkness and thirst are not as scary and deadly for us as your 'friendship and brotherhood.' But history will put everything in its place. And we will be with gas, light, water and food ... and WITHOUT you!" (his emphasis)

[kanisatha]

14 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

That could also change with the fall of Kherson, because as kanisatha has mentioned, the most elite Russian forces and a lot of FSB is stationed there.

Indeed.

The Ukrainian strategy here is brilliant. Gievn RU softness currently in the Donbas the UA is hitting them hard there, including the new offensive now into Luhansk. But the Donbas is what Putin and co. have been insisting the war is ALL about now for months. So how can they justify losing the Donbas while holding onto Kherson and the southern areas? So I now fully expect the Russians will have no choice but to pull out a lot of their forces in the south, including their best forces there, and move them (back) to the Donbas. And the instant that happens, based on that awesome real-time battlefield intel from the US, the UA will launch a big push in the south to take advantage of the Russian pullout. But even in the Donbas, those RU reinforcements will end up being too little too late (and they will take a pounding from UA artillery as they move). Many Western intel analysts now say RU has lost the ability to mount large-scale offensive ops, and can barely handle large-scale defensive ops. This is why all of this could be the endgame for the war ... and maybe why Lavrov yesterday finally came out of the hole he's hiding in to say that he was 'ready' for negotiations with the Ukrainians whenever they are willing to talk.

Side-note: We can now also see in Libya, Syria, and the south Caucasus anti-Russian forces on the move because they all sense Russia's conventional military weakness.

[Zoraptor]

7 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

Realistically speaking, someone like Patrusev would appear to be even worse than Putin, though it's debatable whether he'd qualify as "much worse", and I hope we don't get to find out.

Yeltsin semi permanently killed any chance of a 'western' 'liberal' leader in Russia since he had the west's unrestricted backing- including a truly massive intervention in the 1996 election in which Yeltsin outspent campaign rules by up to 1000 times (not +1000%, a thousand times) via western money- yet was an unmitigated disaster for Russia. Western support is kiss of death territory for the average Russian, the only people it counts for positively are middle class++ urbanites who actually did OK under Yeltsin. Even the human rights situation wasn't actually better, more opposition politicians and journalists died suspiciously or violently under Yeltsin than under Putin (to 2014 when I last checked the figures, but then that was 14 years of Putin vs 8 years of Yeltsin, so...). There's a single pro west candidate with more than 5% support, just by some polls, and as previous that's Navalny who is picked for that support mostly for being anti Putin rather than for his outstanding qualities and beliefs. The other most popular and supported leaders in Russia were Zhirinovsky- who made Putin look like Ghandi- and Zyuganov

(Caligula was most definitely the victim of a concerted smear campaign by the Sun Journalist equivalent of the time, Suetonius, who is nearly our sole source on the subject. "Sheesh, my horse could do a better job as consul than you senators" <--> "Look what that LOONY TUNE Gaius has done NOW! He's going to make his HORSE Incatatus Consul! Do we need further evidence his BONKERS quotient is through the ROOF*?". Suetonius, of course, while not a member of the senatorial class was a member of the equestrian one, just below it.

*Who am I kidding, the average Sun reader's head would explode at the word 'quotient')

5 hours ago, Lexx said:

Article sounds like someone trying to say "no intervention is necessary! Prices are all good! Pinky swear!"

Yeah historically, September is the month prices start ramping up for winter, not start dropping. They'd be worried about windfall taxes though most likely, not intervention per se. If prices get capped the EU will almost certainly have to pay the difference as is the case with the announced £150bn scheme in the UK. The alternative may be not getting the gas at all.

A windfall tax scheme is a great way to claim back a lot of those costs though, and would be politically highly popular.

Edited September 13, 2022 by Zoraptor

[Gorth]

"There are no Ukrainian infidels in Moscow. Never!" - Russian Information Minister

I do think Putin will take to using part of the nuclear arsenal against Ukraine before that happens though. Also why I believe it to be the main reason Biden will not send any toys to Kiev that can hit Russia from afar, because he expects a similar outcome. Defensive warfare support only.

 

@Zoraptor yeah, I wouldn't put it past the west to support Navalny. Just what Russia needs. An ultra-nationalist, whose first bullet point on the agenda is to kill off all Muslims living in the Russian Federation and the the second bullet point being to unite all Russian speakers in a Großrussia.

[xzar_monty]

8 hours ago, kanisatha said:

As a political scientist I am quite impressed how well, and consistently well, Zelenskiy has been with his political performance since the RU invasion. This particular line in that interview, which I had seen elsewhere, is pure political gold (and just plain awesome too):

"Cold, hunger, darkness and thirst are not as scary and deadly for us as your 'friendship and brotherhood.' But history will put everything in its place. And we will be with gas, light, water and food ... and WITHOUT you!" (his emphasis)

A few months ago I watched an interview where a former KGB guy said the only surprise for him in the war has been the fact that apparently there's a new Churchill in Ukraine. I wouldn't go that far, at least not yet, but I agree that Zelenskyi has been impressive. (It was also funny that Russia's corruption and lack of military prowess did NOT surprise the KGB guy.)

I enjoy the historical context in his use of "friendship and brotherhood". It has been Russia's and the Soviet Union's habit to attempt to mask occupation, warfare and just plain slaughter in language of brotherly assistance(*) and sometimes even love, and of course everybody and their mother knows this. But it was still a good choice of words from Zelenskyi('s speechwriters).

(*) I mean, just as an example, when Soviet forces began streaming into Afghanistan on Christmas Eve 1979, the minister of defence, Dmitry Ustinov, declared to his own troops that it was not an invasion, and the idea repeated to the world again and again throughout the next decade or so was that the Soviets were trying to restore stability at a time when the "political and military situation in the Middle East" was in turmoil, and after requests by the government in Kabul "to provide international help to the friendly Afghan people". Perhaps a bit rich, that, as far as lies go. (And yeah, I'm sure you knew.)

[BruceVC]

3 hours ago, Gorth said:

 

 

@Zoraptor yeah, I wouldn't put it past the west to support Navalny. Just what Russia needs. An ultra-nationalist, whose first bullet point on the agenda is to kill off all Muslims living in the Russian Federation and the the second bullet point being to unite all Russian speakers in a Großrussia.

Gorthfuscious !!! Stop being naughty  and pushing unnecessary anti-Western rhetoric

Once Putin is gone it wont be the West who decides his replacement, it will be the Duma and the Federation Council who will decide his replacement 

Of course if they replace him with " another Putin " type that could be problematic. Lets try to be positive and believe the Ruskies would have learnt from Putins autocracy but these political developments would be up to the Russians

The West wont decide this for Russia 

 

 

 

Edited September 14, 2022 by BruceVC

[Mamoulian War]

3 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

(*) I mean, just as an example, when Soviet forces began streaming into Afghanistan on Christmas Eve 1979, the minister of defence, Dmitry Ustinov, declared to his own troops that it was not an invasion, and the idea repeated to the world again and again throughout the next decade or so was that the Soviets were trying to restore stability at a time when the "political and military situation in the Middle East" was in turmoil, and after requests by the government in Kabul "to provide international help to the friendly Afghan people". Perhaps a bit rich, that, as far as lies go. (And yeah, I'm sure you knew.)

The same rhetoric was used, when Soviet Union invaded Czechoslovakia in 1968. It ended without slaughter though, with few people being killed in my homecity as well. The reason why no fight against USSR happened, was that we were at that time country overwhelmed by communist collaborators...

[xzar_monty]

Two rather surprising things that suggest Russia is not doing all that well.

1:

And 2: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1569772561277353985.html

 

I must say I was surprised by this. The usual caveats apply.

[Malcador]

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/exclusive-war-began-putin-rejected-ukraine-peace-deal-recommended-by-his-aide-2022-09-14/

Interesting to read, some Kremlin sources (I really value the third one less when they mention they just heard from other people so often) leaking this.

[xzar_monty]

Also, the editor of Komsomolskaja Pravda, Vladimir Sungorkin, is dead. Presumably the KP is/was Putin's favorite paper. Reported cause of death: stroke.

[Mamoulian War]

According to one of our Main TV stations (which is in my eyes not the pinnacle of journalistic integrity, although they do have very high reliability, if they do not intentionally omit some stuff) Georgia will be holding referendum, whetter declare war to Russia, to take back Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Slovak trolls paid by Russia are now whining all over local “internet”.

And I am enjoying it, while it lasts

[Malcador]

38 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

According to one of our Main TV stations (which is in my eyes not the pinnacle of journalistic integrity, although they do have very high reliability, if they do not intentionally omit some stuff) Georgia will be holding referendum, whetter declare war to Russia, to take back Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Slovak trolls paid by Russia are now whining all over local “internet”.

And I am enjoying it, while it lasts

Pretty sure that won't end very well for Georgia, though.  No free US weapons heading their way any time soon.

 

[Mamoulian War]

18 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Pretty sure that won't end very well for Georgia, though.  No free US weapons heading their way any time soon.

 

IMHO, this will depend on how big ties they have made to Azerbaijan during this year, because they are significantly backed by Turkey, and Azerbaijan hates Russia as much as Georgia AFAIK. The other thing is, how big damage to UA will be able to do to Russia during the winter. 
 

To me it seems like foolish thing to do, but realistically, Georgia will not have better opportunity to get their territory back, than during this conflict. And you never know, maybe US will send one or two HIMARSes there with some backing as a goodwill gesture… Only Time will tell…

The only other possibility for Georgia to get it back would be, that if Ukraine’s victory would be so decisive, that they could force Russia to anything, when signing peace treaty. And as much as I would love to see that. I do not think, that this is realistic scenario in the foreseeable future…

Edited September 14, 2022 by Mamoulian War