Ukraine Conflict - "There is no instance of a nation benefitting from prolonged warfare"

[Lexx]

Honestly, I think we should just send them the longest range stuff we have and call it a day.

[Malcador]

So ICBMs ?

[pmp10]

US is unlikely to supply long range missiles in the near future.
That would likely mean that western tanks, planes and IFVs are also off the table.

I guess Ukrainian victory didn't change that particular escalation logic.  

[Mamoulian War]

This interview is pretty interesting in the light of newest Central Asian boost of ties with China. Looks like China is using the Putin’s foolishness to weaken his power full-time. According to this interview, even the common Russians after all the years of propaganda, are more afraid of China than of NATO. 
 

 

[HoonDing]

Meh, at this point does anyone really believe those Russian nukes even work?

Just push to Moscow already

[Mamoulian War]

500 “fresh” civilian graves found in Izyum, together with mass-grave of Ukrainian soldiers.

More details in Pravda article.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/09/15/7367673/

Edited September 15, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[Gorth]

8 hours ago, HoonDing said:

Meh, at this point does anyone really believe those Russian nukes even work?

Just push to Moscow already

It's a question of statistics, isn't it? Assuming the Russian army is rotten to the core with nepotism, corruption and archaic doctrines, so it is really only fighting at 25% efficiency of what it's numbers would otherwise have suggested. Same thing with the Russian airforce and navy. Projecting unto the nuclear arsenal, 25% of 5900+ nuclear warheads (2022 estimates https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction) hitting something is still a lot of damage.

[BruceVC]

8 hours ago, HoonDing said:

Meh, at this point does anyone really believe those Russian nukes even work?

Just push to Moscow already

Its a great point but crossing the border into Russia would be an egregious mistake because now Putin would gain the " moral  high ground " and motivate the entire Russian military machine and public sentiment 

And then we can no longer raise the truth about the unprovoked invasion as Putin  will be now defending his  country

I think this would make him stronger 

 

 

 

[BruceVC]

5 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

500 “fresh” civilian graves found in Izyum, together with mass-grave of Ukrainian soldiers.

More details in Pravda article.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/09/15/7367673/

Absolutely appalling, add to the long list of Russian  war crimes 

[BruceVC]

9 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

This interview is pretty interesting in the light of newest Central Asian boost of ties with China. Looks like China is using the Putin’s foolishness to weaken his power full-time. According to this interview, even the common Russians after all the years of propaganda, are more afraid of China than of NATO. 
 

 

Excellent interview and I agree with most of it, it always highlights the unlikely reality of the " new world order "  

[rjshae]

23 hours ago, pmp10 said:

US is unlikely to supply long range missiles in the near future.
That would likely mean that western tanks, planes and IFVs are also off the table.

I guess Ukrainian victory didn't change that particular escalation logic.  

I'm speculating that type of equipment may come once the war is over, as it then becomes a "deterrent" in case of a renewal of Russian aggression.

[Malcador]

Just now, rjshae said:

I'm speculating that type of equipment may come once the war is over, as it then becomes a "deterrent" in case of a renewal of Russian aggression.

And they can charge for it at that time.

[pmp10]

Germany is taking (temporary) control of Rosneft refineries.
Since the natural response would be an oil cut-off that sanction will come early.

 

54 minutes ago, rjshae said:

I'm speculating that type of equipment may come once the war is over, as it then becomes a "deterrent" in case of a renewal of Russian aggression.

Sure but the soviet equipment Ukraine was given won't last thru a longer war of attrition.
And there is a good chance that EU is already out of giftable T-72s.

[Mamoulian War]

A testimony from medic abducted in Mariupol, about the behaviour of their captors...

https://www.ta3.com/clanok/246021/zajatci-tyzdne-kricali-od-bolesti-v-naruci-jej-zomrel-chlapec-ukrajinska-zdravotnicka-popisala-mucenie-v-ruskom-zajati

Google translate:

The captives screamed in pain for weeks, a boy died in her arms. Ukrainian nurse described torture in Russian captivity
15/09/2022 19:11

The captives screamed in pain for weeks, a boy died in her arms. Ukrainian nurse described torture in Russian captivity

Ukrainian volunteer Yuliya Pajevská, who was captured by the Russians in Mariupol in March, testified on Thursday at a hearing before a committee in the US Congress about the torture of Ukrainians in Russian captivity. Pajevská, who is known in Ukraine as Tajra, was released after three months.

She told members of the American Helsinki Committee that the Russians regularly tortured her and other prisoners, many of whom did not survive. According to AP, this is her most open testimony yet about what she experienced at the hands of the Russians.

"Do you know why we are doing this to you?" a Russian asked her. "Because you can," Pajevská answered him, according to her statement.

The American Helsinki Committee is a government agency established by Congress in 1975 to promote respect for human rights. It is attended by members of the House of Representatives and the Senate, as well as representatives of American ministries.

Pajevská described that a seven-year-old boy died in her arms because she did not have the necessary equipment to help him. She further claimed that the captives had to undress before being tortured. Many screamed in pain for weeks before dying. "In such agony, the only thing they knew before death was violence and new pain," she said.

She described hell

According to the Ukrainian agency Ukrinform, Pajevska saved the lives of soldiers and civilians in Donbass for eight years. This year, she handed over to the AP agency the records made when she and her group helped Ukrainians and wounded Russians during the current war.

AP wrote that Pajevská is one of those who ended up in Russian captivity. The mayor of Mariupol said that 10,000 people disappeared during the Russian siege of the city. The Russians captured Mariupol in April at the cost of a destroyed city and countless dead.

Maryland Senator Ben Cardin said after Pajevska's speech that the Geneva Conventions require unconditional protection for both civilian and military health workers. He called what the Ukrainian woman described a violation of international law. Republican Joe Wilson from South Carolina called Russian President Vladimir Putin a war criminal.

Until now, Pajevská has refused to describe her captivity to journalists in more detail, she only talked about it in general, that it was hell. "It's very uncomfortable to talk about what happened there," she told the committee.

[rjshae]

7 hours ago, Malcador said:

And they can charge for it at that time.

Sure. Ukraine is a resource rich country, and they will likely see a need to remain well armed for the foreseeable future.

[HoonDing]

[Zoraptor]

RTE (and this time Cavasoglu too) get chairs, everyone else sits on a couch?

Something must be done about those Turks, they never learn- and, please, no suggestions they exchange the sofa for ottomans. Though the thought of Putin, Lukashenko etc perched on a fancy footrest is kind of appealing.

[BruceVC]

4 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

RTE (and this time Cavasoglu too) get chairs, everyone else sits on a couch?

Something must be done about those Turks, they never learn- and, please, no suggestions they exchange the sofa for ottomans. Though the thought of Putin, Lukashenko etc perched on a fancy footrest is kind of appealing.

Nothing is more cringe than Putin sitting at his long table when  he was obsessed and paranoid about the virus 

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/vladimir-putin-ukraine-russia-crisis-long-table-kremlin-memes-rcna16670

[HoonDing]

22 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

RTE (and this time Cavasoglu too) get chairs, everyone else sits on a couch?

Something must be done about those Turks, they never learn- and, please, no suggestions they exchange the sofa for ottomans. Though the thought of Putin, Lukashenko etc perched on a fancy footrest is kind of appealing.

I believe it's Ilham Aliyev next to Erdie

[xzar_monty]

On 9/16/2022 at 2:14 AM, Mamoulian War said:

500 “fresh” civilian graves found in Izyum, together with mass-grave of Ukrainian soldiers

After Bucha, there was no doubt that this was going to happen, and it's going to happen again, and again. But it's still heartbreaking, I agree. Just when you think a nation could not be more despicable, Russia demonstrates that it can.

The British Ministry of Defence has just posted that "in the last seven days, Russia has increased its targeting of civilian infrastructure even where it probably perceived no immediate military effect". Losses on the battlefield -> let's just kill and destroy what we can.

The Indian response to Putin's war was somewhat positive, at least.

 

EDIT: a somewhat interesting report on how Russia has been emptying bases around St. Petersburg and taken the equipment toward Ukraine. If Russia seriously feared an attack from NATO, it obviously wouldn't do this, and if NATO seriously wanted to attack, the past months would have been the perfect time. But of course Russia has no fear of NATO outside propaganda, and of course NATO doesn't want to attack. https://yle.fi/news/3-12626182

Edited September 18, 2022 by xzar_monty

[Mamoulian War]

3 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

The Indian response to Putin's war was somewhat positive, at least.

I have probably missed that, can you please give some details?

[xzar_monty]

34 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

I have probably missed that, can you please give some details?

Here's a report from a pretty good source.

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/putin-xi-speak-summit-uzbekistan-2022-09-16/

[BruceVC]

https://jacklimpert.com/2022/09/the-secret-of-ukrainian-success/#:~:text=From a Washington Post column by Fareed Zakaria,moving%2C shops were open and restaurants were full.

Great  read about the Ukrainians fortitude to resist Putins War and how the West will stay the course and continue to support Ukraine 

 

[xzar_monty]

Whether these numbers are precisely accurate or not, it appears that the Kharkiv offensive indeed was a huge blow for Russia.

 

[Malcador]

Surprised they are still attacking Bakhmut while all this is going on.

The Iranian drones the Russians got are working well - https://www.wsj.com/articles/russias-use-of-iranian-kamikaze-drones-creates-new-dangers-for-ukrainian-troops-11663415140 

Could just be a US media outlet overhyping the danger as it's Iran, heh.

Edited September 18, 2022 by Malcador