Ukraine Conflict - "There is no instance of a nation benefitting from prolonged warfare"

[Lexx]

32 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

What about grammar and vocabulary? I don't really speak German well enough to say anything about that stuff.(*)

The reason I ask is that in my country, it is astonishing to see how bad the writing can sometimes be in those circles, strictly from a linguistic point of view: poor grammar, plenty of elementary mistakes, needless repetition in word choices, and so on. All the things that instantly make you think "poor education, lack of knowledge".

Yes, the articles are usually badly written. You just instantly know that it wasn't made by people who actually studied the language or writing in general. Of course the target audience would never notice...

I'm pretty sure this is also the reason for some of the weird text style choices. Whoever writes that stuff simply doesn't know better and does whatever s/he thinks looks good.

Edited September 7, 2022 by Lexx

[BruceVC]

10 hours ago, kanisatha said:

Wikipedia says this about anything that is not left. Wikipedia's own ideological leanings are quite well established.

My isssue with ZH is how its consistently wrong with its predictions, they predicted oil price would get to  $140 and how the US and EU economies would have collapsed by now

And all they do is look at known issues, like the energy price and global inflation, and use that to justify there own ideological views and biases 

So for example when the oil price was rising in the beginning of Putins War this was proof of Western economic incompetence and hegemony and the " West is about to collapse", now thats not a  crisis its the gas prices and its overall impact on the EU economy 

And when thats resolved they will wait for something else and hopefully something serious so they can say " the West is about to collapse due to xxx " 

 

Edited September 7, 2022 by BruceVC

[pmp10]

17 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

A small price to pay to get rid of the blackmail by Russian mobsters. EU will recover in 5-10 years, Russia in 30-50…

Let's first see if people of EU are at all willing to sacrifice.
Some 32% of western Europeans are now afraid their families will go hungry.

Quite the self-pitying nonsense for a region with 20% obesity rate.

[Elerond]

EU countries need to do energy reform sooner or later. It has been known for decades but politicians have delayed picking any path forward, because it has been politically easier not look solutions. So far people have accepted that it is okay to wait if energy problems just fixes itself 

[Lexx]

Who are those 32% of western europeans? Prices might hike in germany, but I'm pretty sure nobody will suffer hunger through this.

[Mamoulian War]

48 minutes ago, Lexx said:

Who are those 32% of western europeans? Prices might hike in germany, but I'm pretty sure nobody will suffer hunger through this.

It is more prevalent ex-soviet puppet states. Slovakia and Bulgaria are still heavily influenced by Russian Propaganda, and a lot of FSB officers are/were working on embasies in our countries. In the western europe, I think Italy might be influenced by this propaganda more than other western countries. But for that, it would be best to read it from someone living in Italy. I have it only from newspaper, which I read.

[Chilloutman]

1 hour ago, Lexx said:

Who are those 32% of western europeans? Prices might hike in germany, but I'm pretty sure nobody will suffer hunger through this.

easy to say from most wealthy country in Europe

[pmp10]

1 hour ago, Lexx said:

Who are those 32% of western europeans? Prices might hike in germany, but I'm pretty sure nobody will suffer hunger through this.

Whoever the open society foundation polled.
Although I admit they are not very open about methodology.

 

 

[Lexx]

30 minutes ago, Chilloutman said:

easy to say from most wealthy country in Europe

Well, it's not just that. We have lots of social security nets which you can use to prevent living on the street or going hungry. It's why I am paying over 40% in tax after all.

Edited September 7, 2022 by Lexx

[BruceVC]

1 hour ago, Lexx said:

Who are those 32% of western europeans? Prices might hike in germany, but I'm pretty sure nobody will suffer hunger through this.

Its common Russian and ZH propaganda that the energy crisis is going to lead to mass starvation and Europeans freezing to death 

@pmp10is just repeating what suits a particular Russian narrative but its not what the EU or individual EU governments are saying. So the EU is concerned with prices and obvious economic impact, the Russian propaganda translates that to  " People in Germany are going to freeze and starve to death " 

Edited September 7, 2022 by BruceVC

[Chilloutman]

32 minutes ago, Lexx said:

Well, it's not just that. We have lots of social security nets which you can use to prevent living on the street or going hungry. It's why I am paying over 40% in tax after all.

we are paying same taxes but we have 1/3 average income yet we pay same amount of cash for energies and/or goods

[xzar_monty]

16 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

Its common Russian and ZH propaganda that the energy crisis is going to lead to mass starvation and Europeans freezing to death

Indeed, Gazprom has apparently published a video describing the forthcoming cold winter in Europe: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eeB2trkdhP0

The most fascinating thing about this, for me, is the fact that Gazprom essentially abandons all its European customers and burns its bridges for good. Now, this is something that is likely to happen or to have sort of happened already, so in that sense it's understandable. But it still looks quite foolish to me, from a let's say diplomatic point of view: there is no coming back from this. Companies just don't do this kind of stuff, normally.

[pmp10]

20 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

Its common Russian and ZH propaganda that the energy crisis is going to lead to mass starvation and Europeans freezing to death 

@pmp10is just repeating what suits a particular Russian narrative but its not what the EU or individual EU governments are saying. So the EU is concerned with prices and obvious economic impact, the Russian propaganda translates that to  " People in Germany are going to freeze and starve to death " 

It will also be on the lips of protesters angling for benefits or trying to overthrow their governments. 
The real affected poor are very unlikely to be noticed. 

[Mamoulian War]

12 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

Indeed, Gazprom has apparently published a video describing the forthcoming cold winter in Europe: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eeB2trkdhP0

The most fascinating thing about this, for me, is the fact that Gazprom essentially abandons all its European customers and burns its bridges for good. Now, this is something that is likely to happen or to have sort of happened already, so in that sense it's understandable. But it still looks quite foolish to me, from a let's say diplomatic point of view: there is no coming back from this. Companies just don't do this kind of stuff, normally.

The funny thing is, that this video made a pretty big outrage in Russia, because there are still some areas in Siberia without gas pipelines, which Putin graciously promised years ago to build, and in 2020, quietly abandoning that promise. Which means, that a lot of Siberian cities are actually living through every winter, what they see in that particular video

Edited September 7, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[Elerond]

54 minutes ago, pmp10 said:

Whoever the open society foundation polled.
Although I admit they are not very open about methodology.

 

 

"Some 32% of western Europeans are now afraid their families will go hungry."

Sounds more dramatic, when you drop rest of the results

[BruceVC]

10 minutes ago, pmp10 said:

It will also be on the lips of protesters angling for benefits or trying to overthrow their governments. 
The real affected poor are very unlikely to be noticed. 

Yes, agreed. Any anti-EU political party, irrespective of what comes out  of Russia, will also embellish these problems

Its normal when it comes to this type of "propaganda politics". There will always be some truth and then people exaggerate some of it because it suits there ideological and political objectives

 

[Mamoulian War]

In the meanwhile, while Russia sent their best Spetznas and VDV to western Kherson Oblast, UA army started another offensive in Kharkhiv Oblast and in little bit more than 24 hours, they moved more than 20km deep into Russian occupied territories and removed Russian soldiers with heavy losses from 7 settlements between Balaklia and Shevchenkove, probably trying to completely cut-off Izyum from all Russian GLOCs… The push still continues, with first reports, that they moved 5 kms further to the northwest, and are approx. 10kms away from Shevchenkove.

 

EDIT: more liberated towns in Northern Kherson Oblast officially reported today as well.

 

 

Edited September 7, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[Mamoulian War]

During this push deep into Kharkiv Oblast, UA army captured Lieutenant Colonel of Russian army

 

Edited September 7, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[Mamoulian War]

Explanation of the announced mobilization of women in Ukraine, which we were talking about few days ago.

 

[xzar_monty]

Putin's speech about not having lost anything and not going to lose anything was indeed quite hilarious. I cannot conceive of a meaning for "anything" that could possibly make that statement reasonable -- I mean, even if I was a staunch Putin supporter I could list an awful lot of things Russia has lost since the war started.

This, once again, brings up that age-old question: is he deliberately lying or does he sincerely believe in what he says? I believe it's more the latter. There was a very interesting transcript of a telephone conversation between Putin and a European president where Putin stressed that Russia is only interested in liberating this city and the other, mainly Mariupol and other places in that area. In response to this, Putin was asked about Kiev -- what about the assault on Kiev, for surely that had nothing to do with what you're talking about. Putin didn't say anything, he was just silent for a while and then continued on as if the question hadn't even registered. Quite interesting.

 

Edited September 7, 2022 by xzar_monty

[BruceVC]

50 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

Putin's speech about not having lost anything and not going to lose anything was indeed quite hilarious. I cannot conceive of a meaning for "anything" that could possibly make that statement reasonable -- I mean, even if I was a staunch Putin supporter I could list an awful lot of things Russia has lost since the war started.

This, once again, brings up that age-old question: is he deliberately lying or does he sincerely believe in what he says? I believe it's more the latter. There was a very interesting transcript of a telephone conversation between Putin and a European president where Putin stressed that Russia is only interested in liberating this city and the other, mainly Mariupol and other places in that area. In response to this, Putin was asked about Kiev -- what about the assault on Kiev, for surely that had nothing to do with what you're talking about. Putin didn't say anything, he was just silent for a while and then continued on as if the question hadn't even registered. Quite interesting.

 

His speech is how he has always been with his type of autocracy, he will always perpetuate the propaganda of  Russia's superiority and morality  and things like the famous three  N lies will continue. And they will continue because his leadership is based on numerous false narratives and controlling the flow of information and truth within Russia

So nothing about any of his speeches, hyperbole and grandstanding  surprises or shocks me. Its exactly what I expect from Putin

[Malcador]

58 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

Putin's speech about not having lost anything and not going to lose anything was indeed quite hilarious. I cannot conceive of a meaning for "anything" that could possibly make that statement reasonable -- I mean, even if I was a staunch Putin supporter I could list an awful lot of things Russia has lost since the war started.

This, once again, brings up that age-old question: is he deliberately lying or does he sincerely believe in what he says? I believe it's more the latter. There was a very interesting transcript of a telephone conversation between Putin and a European president where Putin stressed that Russia is only interested in liberating this city and the other, mainly Mariupol and other places in that area. In response to this, Putin was asked about Kiev -- what about the assault on Kiev, for surely that had nothing to do with what you're talking about. Putin didn't say anything, he was just silent for a while and then continued on as if the question hadn't even registered. Quite interesting.

 

What are you basing your belief that he believes what he's saying on ?  Seems like lying is more likely, especially looking at your example of the phone call. 

[xzar_monty]

25 minutes ago, Malcador said:

What are you basing your belief that he believes what he's saying on ?  Seems like lying is more likely, especially looking at your example of the phone call. 

Nothing, in terms of hard evidence, as that's essentially impossible to get. Just the sense that in the long run it's less strenuous to be deluded than a liar, and the fact that prolonged lying can eventually delude a person. But of course I may be wrong, no question.

(In Trump's case the idea of him being deluded looks even more likely. Not sure what you'd make of that.)

[Zoraptor]

9 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

The most fascinating thing about this, for me, is the fact that Gazprom essentially abandons all its European customers and burns its bridges for good. Now, this is something that is likely to happen or to have sort of happened already, so in that sense it's understandable. But it still looks quite foolish to me, from a let's say diplomatic point of view: there is no coming back from this. Companies just don't do this kind of stuff, normally.

Really? Companies do this sort of thing all the time, even ones that aren't state owned. Try asking DPRK/ Iran/ Venezuela or, well, Russia about whether western companies do this sort of stuff normally. The US Instructed its chip makers not to sell AI chips to China just last week for example. Or in other words:

Russian sanctions on Europe --> no coming back from this. Prior European sanctions on Russia (or anyone else --> ??Easy way back, just do what we say?? This retaliation is, effectively, Sanctions it's just (probably, though as below not according to the Euros themselves) going to be more effective than all the Euro sanctions have been. But the counter for that is that the estimate for Britain was +80% household energy costs over winter before this- with a cost of £100bn to the taxpayer- and Britain doesn't even use Russian gas at all.

It's also not in a vacuum, there's a requirement to be both a good seller and a good buyer. Talking about weaning yourself off may not be bad buyer behaviour, but the EU has most definitely been talking about price caps and the like for the seller, try doing that for your energy provider and see where it gets you. There's also, of course, the currency fiasco of insisting- at least theoretically, though it's been widely ignored- on payments in Euros, which Russia can't spend because of... EU sanctions.

And the thing is, if you go by what the Euros are saying it shouldn't even be effective. Just about everyone has been announcing that they'll be off Russian gas by at most the end of the year. So, not much for Gazprom to lose, really. You do tend to hope that that weaning off didn't rely on buying lots of gas now for storage though. Probably the most interesting thing will be to see if we end up with the richer EU nations filching supplies off the poorer ones. Germany needs natural gas not just for energy, but for a load of industrial processes as well, and shutting them down would mean potentially millions furloughed for months.

Edited September 7, 2022 by Zoraptor

[majestic]

14 hours ago, Lexx said:

Of course the target audience would never notice...