Gfted1 Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 15 minutes ago, Malcador said: Or maybe threaten to let Israel bomb their nuclear facilities or something. Im pretty interested in the purported strength of Iranian concrete. 2 "I'm your biggest fan, Ill follow you until you love me, Papa" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BruceVC Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 22 minutes ago, Malcador said: Think it's only additional sanctions. Or maybe threaten to let Israel bomb their nuclear facilities or something. Its fine to laugh about Iran and the response to them developing nuclear weapons but just so there is no doubt. Iran will never be allowed to develop nuclear technology. You cant possibly think that will happen, it will destabilize the ME and neither Israel or the Gulf states will accept that. So either Israel will act unilaterally, with political support from the Gulf States and the US, or the US will act with support from Israel and the Gulf States So if Iran continues on this path there will definitely be another conflict in the ME but it will the fault of the hardliners in Iran. Not anyone else "Abashed the devil stood and felt how awful goodness is and saw Virtue in her shape how lovely: and pined his loss” John Milton "We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.” - George Bernard Shaw "What counts in life is not the mere fact that we have lived. It is what difference we have made to the lives of others that will determine the significance of the life we lead" - Nelson Mandela Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sarex Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 32 minutes ago, Malcador said: Think it's only additional sanctions. Or maybe threaten to let Israel bomb their nuclear facilities or something. Would be interesting, to say the least, to see what hell would break lose if Israel did that. "because they filled mommy with enough mythic power to become a demi-god" - KP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoonDing Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 Iran has Israel check mated. Hezbollah has tens of thousands of missiles and rockets with range sufficient to hit any target in Israel including Dimona. The instant Israel attacks Iran Hezbollah will open the gates of hell and drop those tens of thousands of missiles on cities and towns all across Israel. Israel has "Iron Dome" but it is a matter of numbers. Hezbollah has so many missiles they can saturate Iron Dome and a lot of Israeli cities will be badly damaged. Israel basically invaded Lebanon in 2006 the way Putin invaded Ukraine, with a coordinated air and ground attack into Lebanon and basically lost. Hezbollah outfought the Israelis on the ground. The missiles kept coming even as Israeli forces leveled Lebanese communities. Since then Hezbollah is estimated to have increased its arsenal tenfold. Israel knows this and is thus constrained from acting directly against Iran. Israel wants the US to do their dirty work but if the US attacks Iran the same thing happens and Hezbollah levels Israeli cities in retribution. Hezbollah also has substantial forces in Syria who are experienced and combat hardened fighting alongside the IRGC and Russian forces. 2 1 The ending of the words is ALMSIVI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malcador Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 13 minutes ago, Gfted1 said: Im pretty interested in the purported strength of Iranian concrete. It will fail to glorious Western weaponry, no doubt. But first problem for them is just the distance they have to cover. Why has elegance found so little following? Elegance has the disadvantage that hard work is needed to achieve it and a good education to appreciate it. - Edsger Wybe Dijkstra Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malcador Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 35 minutes ago, BruceVC said: Its fine to laugh about Iran and the response to them developing nuclear weapons but just so there is no doubt. Iran will never be allowed to develop nuclear technology. You cant possibly think that will happen, it will destabilize the ME and neither Israel or the Gulf states will accept that. So either Israel will act unilaterally, with political support from the Gulf States and the US, or the US will act with support from Israel and the Gulf States So if Iran continues on this path there will definitely be another conflict in the ME but it will the fault of the hardliners in Iran. Not anyone else Would be interesting to see what would happen, I am somewhat skeptical that the Iranian regime is so utterly insane to kill their nation by blowing up Tel Aviv or Jerusalem. Sort of amusing that if they are attacked by the US as a result, it's still their fault though. Why has elegance found so little following? Elegance has the disadvantage that hard work is needed to achieve it and a good education to appreciate it. - Edsger Wybe Dijkstra Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BruceVC Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 9 minutes ago, Malcador said: Would be interesting to see what would happen, I am somewhat skeptical that the Iranian regime is so utterly insane to kill their nation by blowing up Tel Aviv or Jerusalem. Sort of amusing that if they are attacked by the US as a result, it's still their fault though. Iran would never directly attack Israel using there army or using nukes because the latter would wipe Israel\Tel Aviv out because its a tiny country but then Iran would also be wiped off the face of the earth because the Israelis have nukes for a deterrent. So Iran is not suicidal But you still cant allow the hardliners in Iran to ever get nukes because they definitely cant be trusted if you just look at the numerous proxy wars in the ME that is supported by Shia fundamentalism and more importantly if Iran has nukes the Saudis and the Sunni states will want nukes and then you have a nuclear arms race in the ME which has to be avoided if you consider how volatile the region is That why the previous Iranian sanctions were supported by the entire UNSC, all 5 members agreed that Iran cant get nuclear technology. They just didnt all say it openly But Putin's War has changed this consensus but you dont need consensus from the UNSC to stop Iran getting nukes Its up to the hardliners in Iran to not go down this path, they have plenty of time to change the course they on and lets hope they do 1 "Abashed the devil stood and felt how awful goodness is and saw Virtue in her shape how lovely: and pined his loss” John Milton "We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.” - George Bernard Shaw "What counts in life is not the mere fact that we have lived. It is what difference we have made to the lives of others that will determine the significance of the life we lead" - Nelson Mandela Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanisatha Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 (edited) 7 hours ago, BruceVC said: Iran would never directly attack Israel using there army or using nukes because the latter would wipe Israel\Tel Aviv out because its a tiny country but then Iran would also be wiped off the face of the earth because the Israelis have nukes for a deterrent. So Iran is not suicidal But you still cant allow the hardliners in Iran to ever get nukes because they definitely cant be trusted if you just look at the numerous proxy wars in the ME that is supported by Shia fundamentalism and more importantly if Iran has nukes the Saudis and the Sunni states will want nukes and then you have a nuclear arms race in the ME which has to be avoided if you consider how volatile the region is That why the previous Iranian sanctions were supported by the entire UNSC, all 5 members agreed that Iran cant get nuclear technology. They just didnt all say it openly But Putin's War has changed this consensus but you dont need consensus from the UNSC to stop Iran getting nukes Its up to the hardliners in Iran to not go down this path, they have plenty of time to change the course they on and lets hope they do Iran now has all the technology and components it needs to put together a bomb. So it is only a matter of the political decision to do so followed by the mad rush to get the first bombs assembled and operational. It is my professional view, which aligns with many other nuclear proliferation experts, that the timeline for this would be about two months, give or take. The Israeli strike on Iran is coming once Israel has a stable new government in place (or sooner if circumstances require it). In its most recent test run of the strike, Israeli F-35s were refueled in-flight by US tankers. There cannot be a bigger green light from the US Administration than that. The only way this does not happen is if Iran agrees to a return to the JCPOA without getting any of their unreasonable extraneous demands being met by the US side. I don't see Biden caving on those Iranian demands. And I don't see the Iranians giving up on those demands. I also wouldn't count out a desperate Biden 'rally around the flag' attempt in October to save his party from a rout in November. Edited July 20, 2022 by kanisatha 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malcador Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 1 hour ago, BruceVC said: Iran would never directly attack Israel using there army or using nukes because the latter would wipe Israel\Tel Aviv out because its a tiny country but then Iran would also be wiped off the face of the earth because the Israelis have nukes for a deterrent. So Iran is not suicidal But you still cant allow the hardliners in Iran to ever get nukes because they definitely cant be trusted if you just look at the numerous proxy wars in the ME that is supported by Shia fundamentalism and more importantly if Iran has nukes the Saudis and the Sunni states will want nukes and then you have a nuclear arms race in the ME which has to be avoided if you consider how volatile the region is That why the previous Iranian sanctions were supported by the entire UNSC, all 5 members agreed that Iran cant get nuclear technology. They just didnt all say it openly But Putin's War has changed this consensus but you dont need consensus from the UNSC to stop Iran getting nukes Its up to the hardliners in Iran to not go down this path, they have plenty of time to change the course they on and lets hope they do I don't think the Russian stance on Iran has changed, it toggled back and forth in March or so, but nothing since. That might change, I guess, depending on how Russia feels about trying to stick it to the US. Not sure what you mean by can't be trusted with a nuclear weapon when they are also not suicidal. That just helps them deter an invasion (depending on how many weapons they have, anyway). Israel bombing them, successfully or otherwise, will be interesting as well - hopefully people can go back to talking and Iran decides to trust the US a bit too, heh. Looks like the Kherson offensive or whatever may start soon, they attacked the bridge a couple times. Bridges are not easy to take down. Is comical how bloodthirsty people are on Twitter with combat footage in this war. 1 Why has elegance found so little following? Elegance has the disadvantage that hard work is needed to achieve it and a good education to appreciate it. - Edsger Wybe Dijkstra Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BruceVC Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 32 minutes ago, kanisatha said: Iran now has all the technology and components it needs to put together a bomb. So it is only a matter of the political decision to do so followed by the mad rush to get the first bombs assembled and operational. It is my professional view, which aligns with many other nuclear proliferation experts, that the timeline for this would be about two months, give or take. The Israeli strike on Iran is coming once Israel has a stable new government in place (or sooner if circumstances require it). In its most recent test run of the strike, Israeli F-35s were refueled in-flight by US tankers. There cannot be a bigger green light from the US Administration than that. The only way this does not happen is if Iran agrees to a return to the JCPOA without getting any of their unreasonable extraneous demands being met by the US side. I don't see Biden caving on those Iranian demands. And I don't see the Iranians giving up on those demands. I also wouldn't count out a desperate Biden 'rally around the flag' attempt in October to save his party from a route in November. That is interesting. But Iran has been preparing for a bombing campaign for years, they have quite effective anti-aircraft defenses? It will cost the Israelis if they attack unilaterally What do you know about the Iranian defenses compared to the Israeli air force and will the US help directly with a bombing campaign from what you believe? I am not so sure with Biden but Trump would have helped, thats another advantage with a Trump presidency. He was more decisive around this type of geopolitical conflict "Abashed the devil stood and felt how awful goodness is and saw Virtue in her shape how lovely: and pined his loss” John Milton "We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.” - George Bernard Shaw "What counts in life is not the mere fact that we have lived. It is what difference we have made to the lives of others that will determine the significance of the life we lead" - Nelson Mandela Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanisatha Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 52 minutes ago, Malcador said: That just helps them deter an invasion (depending on how many weapons they have, anyway). I recently made this point to a news interview I did on this issue. The benefit to Iran of having nuclear weapons would be exactly the benefit Russia now has with its nukes with respect to their war in Ukraine. Look at what Russia is doing. It blatantly invaded a neighboring state with no provocation or justification, and has done truly outrageous things to that country. And yet Russia's position is that neither Ukraine nor any Ukrainian ally can retaliate for what Russia is doing to Ukraine by striking any targets in Russia. So, Russia can attack Ukraine. But Ukraine cannot retaliate by attacking Russia. Why? Why does this clearly obvious double-standard work? It is entirely because Russia has nukes, and can (and does) threaten nuclear escalation if their territory is attacked (known as "escalation dominance" in international security literature). This is the true, practical benefit of a state like Iran having nukes. Escalation dominance is awesome for a state to have. But it is in practical terms very difficult and very costly to achieve. Possessing nukes is a quick and dirty way to try and gain escalation dominance (though you would need to have a reasonably large arsenal of nukes AND a very reliable and survivable delivery option for your nukes). It may allow Iran to believe it can do whatever it wants to and in states all over the Middle East while threatening nuclear escalation if anyone dares to retaliate against Iranian territory. 40 minutes ago, BruceVC said: That is interesting. But Iran has been preparing for a bombing campaign for years, they have quite effective anti-aircraft defenses? It will cost the Israelis if they attack unilaterally What do you know about the Iranian defenses compared to the Israeli air force and will the US help directly with a bombing campaign from what you believe? I am not so sure with Biden but Trump would have helped, thats another advantage with a Trump presidency. He was more decisive around this type of geopolitical conflict Iranian air defences have in recent years been considerably strengthened, ironically because of sanctions-relief following the JCPOA in 2015 and as predicted by critics of the JCPOA. But that doesn't matter. If the Israelis see Iran possessing nukes as an existential threat, they will strike no matter the cost to them (and yes, the cost to them will be tremendous, including post-strike Iranian retaliation and fallout with other states in the world). Also, Trump was no true friend of Israel. Like everyone else, Israel too was useful to him so long as he gained some personal political benefit from presenting himself as a champion of Israel. It is known that on at least one occasion as president he personally blocked a covert Israeli op against Iran. He is also known to have told Netanyahu he would not support an Israeli airstrike on Iran. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanisatha Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 Russia's war crime (and possible genocide) in abducting hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians: https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/russias-mass-abduction-of-ukrainians-explained/ https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/07/13/world/russia-ukraine-war-news 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pmp10 Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 Nord Stream gas flow resumes at reduced rate. Seems Russia is not ready for the cut-off. Or at least not yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BruceVC Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 1 hour ago, pmp10 said: Nord Stream gas flow resumes at reduced rate. Seems Russia is not ready for the cut-off. Or at least not yet. Im surprised considering all the weapons being given to the Ukrainians but Im pleasantly surprised The objective for the EU is to not be dependent on any Ruskie energy but it takes time and we dont want the EU to suffer unnecessarily until thats done Once the West is not dependent on any energy from Russia then we can really ramp up the sanctions because the West hasnt done that yet because of certain transactions that are required "Abashed the devil stood and felt how awful goodness is and saw Virtue in her shape how lovely: and pined his loss” John Milton "We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.” - George Bernard Shaw "What counts in life is not the mere fact that we have lived. It is what difference we have made to the lives of others that will determine the significance of the life we lead" - Nelson Mandela Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darkpriest Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 1 hour ago, pmp10 said: Nord Stream gas flow resumes at reduced rate. Seems Russia is not ready for the cut-off. Or at least not yet. The point here is, that this still gives Russia ability to threathen shut off, while also already dealing out some pain to EU economies. If you shut down to zero, you lose some leverage, as the only way to go from zero, is up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BruceVC Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 37 minutes ago, Darkpriest said: The point here is, that this still gives Russia ability to threathen shut off, while also already dealing out some pain to EU economies. If you shut down to zero, you lose some leverage, as the only way to go from zero, is up. Please Dark, no more ZH predictions. I get so anxious because I always believe you and then its not true My blood pressure cant handle it 1 "Abashed the devil stood and felt how awful goodness is and saw Virtue in her shape how lovely: and pined his loss” John Milton "We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.” - George Bernard Shaw "What counts in life is not the mere fact that we have lived. It is what difference we have made to the lives of others that will determine the significance of the life we lead" - Nelson Mandela Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorth Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 1 hour ago, Darkpriest said: The point here is, that this still gives Russia ability to threathen shut off, while also already dealing out some pain to EU economies. If you shut down to zero, you lose some leverage, as the only way to go from zero, is up. When I read the WP piece, I was reminded of an angler... no good just yanking at the line when something's nibbling at the hook. Let it dangle for a bit and let it wear itself out. 1 1 1 “He who joyfully marches to music in rank and file has already earned my contempt. He has been given a large brain by mistake, since for him the spinal cord would surely suffice.” - Albert Einstein Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BruceVC Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 1 hour ago, Gorth said: When I read the WP piece, I was reminded of an angler... no good just yanking at the line when something's nibbling at the hook. Let it dangle for a bit and let it wear itself out. It sounds like you want the EU to be subjected to Russian energy blackmail? "Abashed the devil stood and felt how awful goodness is and saw Virtue in her shape how lovely: and pined his loss” John Milton "We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.” - George Bernard Shaw "What counts in life is not the mere fact that we have lived. It is what difference we have made to the lives of others that will determine the significance of the life we lead" - Nelson Mandela Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorth Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 49 minutes ago, BruceVC said: It sounds like you want the EU to be subjected to Russian energy blackmail? How did you arrive at that conclusion?... seriously “He who joyfully marches to music in rank and file has already earned my contempt. He has been given a large brain by mistake, since for him the spinal cord would surely suffice.” - Albert Einstein Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BruceVC Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 6 minutes ago, Gorth said: How did you arrive at that conclusion?... seriously Your post sounds like it ? "Abashed the devil stood and felt how awful goodness is and saw Virtue in her shape how lovely: and pined his loss” John Milton "We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.” - George Bernard Shaw "What counts in life is not the mere fact that we have lived. It is what difference we have made to the lives of others that will determine the significance of the life we lead" - Nelson Mandela Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorth Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 14 minutes ago, BruceVC said: Your post sounds like it ? Then I don't think you can be helped “He who joyfully marches to music in rank and file has already earned my contempt. He has been given a large brain by mistake, since for him the spinal cord would surely suffice.” - Albert Einstein Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BruceVC Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, Gorth said: Then I don't think you can be helped Okay, my bad. Sorry for the misunderstanding "Abashed the devil stood and felt how awful goodness is and saw Virtue in her shape how lovely: and pined his loss” John Milton "We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.” - George Bernard Shaw "What counts in life is not the mere fact that we have lived. It is what difference we have made to the lives of others that will determine the significance of the life we lead" - Nelson Mandela Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malcador Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 Obviously we need to institute loyalty tests. 1 Why has elegance found so little following? Elegance has the disadvantage that hard work is needed to achieve it and a good education to appreciate it. - Edsger Wybe Dijkstra Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanisatha Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 We all knew this from the beginning, didn't we? How does anyone continue to believe anything any Russian official says on any issue? https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/07/20/world/ukraine-russia-war#russia-ukraine-territory-expansion-lavrov https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62231936 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BruceVC Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 9 minutes ago, kanisatha said: We all knew this from the beginning, didn't we? How does anyone continue to believe anything any Russian official says on any issue? https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/07/20/world/ukraine-russia-war#russia-ukraine-territory-expansion-lavrov https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62231936 I stopped believing anything from any Russian official since 2014 after the Crimean " referendum " 1 "Abashed the devil stood and felt how awful goodness is and saw Virtue in her shape how lovely: and pined his loss” John Milton "We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.” - George Bernard Shaw "What counts in life is not the mere fact that we have lived. It is what difference we have made to the lives of others that will determine the significance of the life we lead" - Nelson Mandela Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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