Ukraine Conflict - "A state of war only serves as an excuse for domestic tyranny"

[BruceVC]

9 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

Sheesh, it's pretty simple. Don't barrack your soldiers in amongst civilians.

Its interesting you have taken that stance, Hamas does that all the time in Gaza and the West Bank. Often when Palestinian civilian are killed its exactly because Hamas is launching rockets or has militants fighting from civilian houses and structures 

So its good to know you wont be  outraged and you will blame Hamas for the Israelis killing civilians next time their is  conflict in that region 

[Mamoulian War]

OK guys, I am completely lost after yesterday, is here anyone with a military tactic education, who can give me some enlightenment on what is the endgoal of Russian military around Kherson, and why they have chosen the tactic they are using there?

On Sunday, UA bombed and pretty much destroyed all buildings at Chornobaivka Airport, which also led to 5 high ranking officers being KIA. Not more than two day after, RU have put again new helicopters on the airfield, which of course prompted another (28th already) attack of UA against the airport, leading to another big explosion... Seriously, there must be some kind of master tactical plan behind this, but as much as I am trying to find any logical conclusion to this behaviour, I am unable to find one... No one on this earth can be that stupid...

 

 

In other news, according to LNR militia chief, UA yesterday HIMARSed depot in Luhansk, and dealt a massive blow to the military air defense unit, which ensures the security of Luhansk.

And during last 5 days, 33 high ranking officers of RU Army were officially confirmed by various Russian sources as KIA, 13 of them were Majors and higher ranks. UA longe range units step up their efficientcy a lot. No wonder, that RU was issuing nuclear threats again yesterday.

[Mamoulian War]

14 hours ago, Malcador said:

Very unlikely. Sanctions aren't going away anytime soon - I think the condition from the West is pre-2014 borders ? So that's out, Russia's ability to reinforce and conduct military operations is probably set back by a decade or so now after all of this.  Trying hybrid warfare and getting friendly politicians in NATO might work, will be very unfertile soil for quite some time to come, at least in most of Europe.

I doubt Russian tanks sweeping in through Vilnius or something is going to yield no response from NATO members, definitely can count on the US to go blow stuff up with a clear moral reason - and a practical one as what point is NATO other than to defend it's members. 

Then again, if suddenly you see this guy in the Kremlin, we must be afraid.

You are probably correct, but there are still enough lunatics in Russia as was deceased Zhirinovski or is Girkin, who would be more unpredictable than Putin, and would be willing to nuke Europe. Especially Poland and Baltics.

[pmp10]

14 hours ago, Malcador said:

Very unlikely. Sanctions aren't going away anytime soon - I think the condition from the West is pre-2014 borders ?

Feb-23 borders but everyone understands it's an unsustainable position.
Sanctions already saw reinterpreting and exceptions, they will be hollowed-out if serious economic hurt happens in Europe.

14 hours ago, Malcador said:

I doubt Russian tanks sweeping in through Vilnius or something is going to yield no response from NATO members, definitely can count on the US to go blow stuff up with a clear moral reason - and a practical one as what point is NATO other than to defend it's members. 

But they will not go to Vilnius to start with but Kaliningrad.
Carving out that very reasonable extra-territorial highway that Lithuania refused to grant despite EU insistence.
Perfectly justified too in their minds, goods transfer problems will only get worse in the coming years and will eventually amount to a 'provocation'.
If they pick the timing well there will also be economic crisis, internal disorder, troubles in the Pacific, contested elections and persecuted Russian minority to save. 

Edited July 13, 2022 by pmp10

[BruceVC]

1 hour ago, pmp10 said:

Feb-23 borders but everyone understands it's an unsustainable position.
Sanctions already saw reinterpreting and exceptions, they will be hollowed-out if serious economic hurt happens in Europe.

But they will not go to Vilnius to start with but Kaliningrad.
Carving out that very reasonable extra-territorial highway that Lithuania refused to grant despite EU insistence.
Perfectly justified too in their minds, goods transfer problems will only get worse in the coming years and will eventually amount to a 'provocation'.
If they pick the timing well there will also be economic crisis, internal disorder, troubles in the Pacific, contested elections and persecuted Russian minority to save. 

Unfortunately Russia invaded Ukraine and the consequences for this we have to accept whatever happens 

And if Russia is " provoked " to attack a NATO country then again we will have to accept the consequence 

 

[Gorth]

2 hours ago, BruceVC said:

Its interesting you have taken that stance, Hamas does that all the time in Gaza and the West Bank. Often when Palestinian civilian are killed its exactly because Hamas is launching rockets or has militants fighting from civilian houses and structures 

So its good to know you wont be  outraged and you will blame Hamas for the Israelis killing civilians next time their is  conflict in that region 

Maybe that's why 95% of the worlds countries have designated Hamas a terrorist organisation?

 

[Elerond]

18 hours ago, Darkpriest said:

I guess you know something they dont

https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-russia-energy-gas-crunch-nord-stream-shutoff-ukraine-war/

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-12/worst-of-global-energy-crisis-may-be-ahead-iea-s-birol-warns

Yeah I actually read German government report.

Like in that politico article mentions EU has already imported more gas from Russia this year than they have budgeted for entire year.

Norway has increased amount of gad they export.

Meaning that Germany and Europe aren't running out of gas this year, but fear is how next year would look like. Even then it is gas price hike that they fear more than lack ofgas

[pmp10]

And talking of reinterpreting sanctions:
EU backs-down over Kaliningrad

[Malcador]

https://www.ft.com/content/141a9e85-19ed-47d4-be48-bb9febc76c98

Article on the financial front, less sexy than videos of missile strikes to crappy techno but still.

[Sarex]

Laughing my ass off... He's selling javelins from the back of a passat with Albanian license plate. Couldn't be more eastern European if you tried.

Also they are killing these videos so fast from the internet.

Longer video on telegram. This one should stay up.

https://t.me/sputniksrbija/31599

There is also a version with English translation if you can find it.

Edited July 13, 2022 by Sarex

[Malcador]

Definitely will be tonnes of arms smuggling. I did laugh at someone on Telegram saying Ukrainians were trying to sell a HIMARS.

[Sarex]

8 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Definitely will be tonnes of arms smuggling. I did laugh at someone on Telegram saying Ukrainians were trying to sell a HIMARS.

We should definitely try and buy it if it's on the market.

[Darkpriest]

@Gorth

More eco woes after todays reports

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-policy-error-imminent-soaring-cpi-sparks-drastic-yield-curve-inversion

More banks realligning to have H2 2022 with recession as a base case. 

I wonder how quickly before midterms Ukraine will vanish from the topic. 

Seems Sauds are also not willing to put US over Russia when it comes to energy markets. 

[Malcador]

55 minutes ago, Sarex said:

We should definitely try and buy it if it's on the market.

Serbia planning to attack while the EU's weapons are in Ukraine, I see.

[Gfted1]

2 hours ago, Malcador said:

...to crappy techno...

Seriously, whats up with that?

[Zoraptor]

Might as well prepare to take back Kosovo now that splitting bits off other countries by force is illegal again.

13 hours ago, BruceVC said:

Its interesting you have taken that stance, Hamas does that all the time in Gaza and the West Bank.

Comparing Ukraine to Hamas, seems a little... counterproductive, Bruce.

[Sarex]

4 minutes ago, Zoraptor said:

Might as well prepare to take back Kosovo now that splitting bits off other countries by force is illegal again.

Waiting for WW3. That is if Belgrade doesn't catch a nuke, as I think there is one with our name on it.

[Malcador]

10 minutes ago, Gfted1 said:

Seriously, whats up with that?

Beats me, just disappointed not seeing more people using the Red Alert soundtracks.  Kids these days..

 

[Mamoulian War]

On 7/13/2022 at 9:22 PM, Sarex said:

Laughing my ass off... He's selling javelins from the back of a passat with Albanian license plate. Couldn't be more eastern European if you tried.

Also they are killing these videos so fast from the internet.

Longer video on telegram. This one should stay up.

https://t.me/sputniksrbija/31599

There is also a version with English translation if you can find it.

How the people know, that this is Ukrainians, and not Russian fakes? They have captured a lot of these weapons during the February and March around Kyiv. Also Sputnik is pretty solid Russian propagandist news, so I would not be very convinced, that this is just another attempt "hybrid attack to the west", which wants to spread doubts into people willing to support the Ukraine with weapons.

The funny thing is, that most of these videos, including "100% guaranteed news, that Ukraine sold HIMARSes and CEZARs" to Russia have started to spread as soon, as the Russian positions have been HIMARSed to the Mars all over the Ukraine... Completely forgetting the fact, that HIMARSes and CEZARs are heavily under the microsoft of USA and France, as these weapons are capable to hit Russian targets in Russia as well.

If anything like that would be true, USA and France would already know about that, and would not signed 4 more HIMARSes and 8 more CEZARs to the battlefield.

Edited July 15, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[Mamoulian War]

On 7/13/2022 at 11:21 PM, Zoraptor said:

Might as well prepare to take back Kosovo now that splitting bits off other countries by force is illegal again.

Comparing Ukraine to Hamas, seems a little... counterproductive, Bruce.

Yeah, you are correct, the clear terrorists here are Russians

 

[Malcador]

"I specifically inquired for a summary report on how many Russian missiles hit military targets, and how many engaged civilian ones. For comparison: since the large-scale aggression, there have been 17,314 strikes on civilian targets, and a little more than 300 hits on military targets"

I am guessing that included artillery and such.  17k missile attacks seems surprising to me.

 

[Gorth]

14 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

How the people know, that this is Ukrainians, and not Russian fakes? They have captured a lot of these weapons during the February and March around Kyiv. Also Sputnik is pretty solid Russian propagandist news, so I would not be very convinced, that this is just another attempt "hybrid attack to the west", which wants to spread doubts into people willing to support the Ukraine with weapons.

The funny thing is, that most of these videos, including "100% guaranteed news, that Ukraine sold HIMARSes and CEZARs" to Russia have started to spread as soon, as the Russian positions have been HIMARSed to the Mars all over the Ukraine... Completely forgetting the fact, that HIMARSes and CEZARs are heavily under the microsoft of USA and France, as these weapons are capable to hit Russian targets in Russia as well.

If anything like that would be true, USA and France would already know about that, and would not signed 4 more HIMARSes and 8 more CEZARs to the battlefield.

Before the war, Ukraine was one of the most corrupt countries in the world (also a reason why they were not really welcome in the EU at the time). With 1 being the best, Ukraine ranked 122 out of 180 countries https://www.transparency.org/en/countries/ukraine

This mentality is unlikely the have changed completely in  a 12 month period, even when at war. "Entrepreneurs" will still try to make money in whichever way. HIMARS are a bit more tricky to stuff in the back of a van and sell on street corners

 

[Mamoulian War]

11 minutes ago, Gorth said:

Before the war, Ukraine was one of the most corrupt countries in the world (also a reason why they were not really welcome in the EU at the time). With 1 being the best, Ukraine ranked 122 out of 180 countries https://www.transparency.org/en/countries/ukraine

This mentality is unlikely the have changed completely in  a 12 month period, even when at war. "Entrepreneurs" will still try to make money in whichever way. HIMARS are a bit more tricky to stuff in the back of a van and sell on street corners

 

Yes, I know a lot about the UA situation pre-war. I had more than a few business trips there And yes you are correct, that even in this war, you cannot expect 180 degree turn on lifestyle, but it changed a lot in last 4 months. Zelenskyi's administration tried a little bit to lower the influence of Oligarchs even before the war, and currently in the war time, there are more cases of UA army and police fighting the corruption than anytime before. Because everyone has already witnessed, what has corruption done to the performance of RU army And no the corruption in UA will not magically disappear after the war, it will stay there, but hopefully being on the EU candidate list, will be enough motivation to lowering it on par with EU "standards". Because the sooner, they get into EU structures, the sooner, they will be rid of the RU threat.

[Mamoulian War]

14 hours ago, Malcador said:

"I specifically inquired for a summary report on how many Russian missiles hit military targets, and how many engaged civilian ones. For comparison: since the large-scale aggression, there have been 17,314 strikes on civilian targets, and a little more than 300 hits on military targets"

I am guessing that included artillery and such.  17k missile attacks seems surprising to me.

 

I am guessing, the classic artillery might not be taken into consideration, but probably MLRS attacks are counted. IIRC there was a number released by British, that RU has launched over 2k Iskanders only (unable to find the source now, so feel free to correct me someone, if I remember it wrong), and they are shooting all kinds of missiles from planes, ships, submarines and land vehicles...

[pmp10]

4 hours ago, Gorth said:

Before the war, Ukraine was one of the most corrupt countries in the world (also a reason why they were not really welcome in the EU at the time). With 1 being the best, Ukraine ranked 122 out of 180 countries https://www.transparency.org/en/countries/ukraine

Still beat by Russia at 136 out of 180.
And yet you don't see video exposes of Shmels being sold from a back of a Lada.