Ukraine Conflict - "History never looks like history when you are living through it."

[kanisatha]

8 hours ago, BruceVC said:

Great link and it raises some pertinent points like who will pay for the rebuilding of occupied and destroyed regions of eastern Ukraine? Russia will continue to become indebted to China if its going to do this and since they destroyed cities like Mariupol they  would have to carry the cost. Its not going to be Western aid under illegitimate  Russian occupation and self-proclaimed " independence " ?

If the UN doesnt recognize it you will battle to get the funding and reconstruction aid 

The scorched earth approach Russia has taken means that even the pro-Russian people of those areas will never return to live there while the areas are under Russian occupation, because there will be very minimal rebuilding. Even after the war somehow "ends," nobody will be investing in Russia itself let alone these devastated areas. They will simply be areas of minefields, barbed wire, and defensive fortifications occupied by Russian reservists.

And Western sanctions on Russia will not end.

[kanisatha]

35 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

This might be another aspect of when the support will end. With the economic crisis countries might have issues restocking what they have sent to UA and UA might run out of 'ammo' sooner than russians

https://rmx.news/czech-republic/czechia-has-exhausted-its-arms-reserves-supporting-ukraine-czech-pm-reveals/

Well, this should if anything raise some serious questions about defense preparedness in Czechia and other NATO countries. If you are running out of arms reserves just simply supporting another state in its war, how will you have fared fighting your own war? The Czech people should ask some serious questions of their politicians about how long their own military would have lasted facing a Russian invasion.

[Elerond]

1 minute ago, kanisatha said:

The scorched earth approach Russia has taken means that even the pro-Russian people of those areas will never return to live there while the areas are under Russian occupation, because there will be very minimal rebuilding. Even after the war somehow "ends," nobody will be investing in Russia itself let alone these devastated areas. They will simply be areas of minefields, barbed wire, and defensive fortifications occupied by Russian reservists.

And Western sanctions on Russia will not end.

As example how fast Russians rebuild area they occupy, Karelia which Soviets took from Finland in second world war has only seen minimal rebuilding and most of that is done by Finnish Karelians who have tried to rebuild it for nostalgic reasons

[pmp10]

1 hour ago, kanisatha said:

And Western sanctions on Russia will not end.

That's a brave prediction.
Sanctions lifting will likely be the only leverage Ukraine gets come negotiations time. 

[kanisatha]

1 hour ago, pmp10 said:

That's a brave prediction.
Sanctions lifting will likely be the only leverage Ukraine gets come negotiations time. 

All major Western states have clearly said (yes including Germany and France) that a return to the 2/24 status quo is what would justify lifting Western sanctions. Will Putin ever agree to that? No, he won't. So the sanctions will continue.

My expectation of how the war ends:

- Russia occupies (and annexes?) all of the two Donbas provinces and much of the two southern Ukrainian provinces

- An armistice to stop the fighting, to which Russia will agree because it has exhausted its offensive forces; Ukraine may be able to leverage the return of the cities of Kherson and Melitopol

- No one recognizes or accepts Russia's occupation or annexation of any Ukrainian territories or any new "independent" states

- Western sanctions on Russia remain in place

[Darkpriest]

24 minutes ago, kanisatha said:

All major Western states have clearly said (yes including Germany and France) that a return to the 2/24 status quo is what would justify lifting Western sanctions. Will Putin ever agree to that? No, he won't. So the sanctions will continue.

My expectation of how the war ends:

- Russia occupies (and annexes?) all of the two Donbas provinces and much of the two southern Ukrainian provinces

- An armistice to stop the fighting, to which Russia will agree because it has exhausted its offensive forces; Ukraine may be able to leverage the return of the cities of Kherson and Melitopol

- No one recognizes or accepts Russia's occupation or annexation of any Ukrainian territories or any new "independent" states

- Western sanctions on Russia remain in place

Agree mostly, however I'm quite sure sanctions will be lifted over time as governments will be facing very dissatisfied populace due to economic costs. 

It will be done individually per state and once a couple will lift, most if not all will be lifting. 

Edited June 26, 2022 by Darkpriest

[Elerond]

1 hour ago, pmp10 said:

That's a brave prediction.
Sanctions lifting will likely be the only leverage Ukraine gets come negotiations time. 

You can ask from Iran when western sanctions are lifted when you let them stabilize as status quo

[kanisatha]

36 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

Agree mostly, however I'm quite sure sanctions will be lifted over time as governments will be facing very dissatisfied populace due to economic costs. 

It will be done individually per state and once a couple will lift, most if not all will be lifting. 

What @Elerondsaid. As time passes, it will become easier to sustain the sanctions as Western states adjust to their own difficulties. And the smaller Western states have no incentive to buck the bigger states. The only way the bigger states will lift the sanctions is if they can point to "nice" behavior from the Russian side, which is just not going to happen. Western economic "pain" is a political cost already paid, and won't get anywhere near bad enough to justify abandoning a major foreign policy interest of the West.

Here's another great analysis of how things are only going to get worse for Russia, and potentially better for Ukraine with the passage of more time:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/06/25/ukraine-russia-balance-of-forces/

[pmp10]

39 minutes ago, kanisatha said:

Western economic "pain" is a political cost already paid, and won't get anywhere near bad enough to justify abandoning a major foreign policy interest of the West.

Except the natural gas is still flowing and grain is still being exported.
Russia still has options to increase the costs.

[ShadySands]

Sounds like our ploy to get Europe on our LNG is going according to plan

[Elerond]

1 hour ago, pmp10 said:

Except the natural gas is still flowing and grain is still being exported.
Russia still has options to increase the costs.

Russian grain is not exported to west, but mainly in countries that Russia would not like to join western sanctions.

Biggest importers of Russian grain are Turkey and Egypt (~50% of total exported grain), which control canals  which are very important for Russia's Black Sea operations.

Russia is already blocking Ukraine's grain which mainly went western Africa

With gas Russia already has stopped most of the flow (either they stopped flow fully or most of it as they claim they need to repair North Stream), which has already forced even Germany to seek fast alternative from coal.

 

[Sarex]

47 minutes ago, Elerond said:

Russian grain is not exported to west, but mainly in countries that Russia would not like to join western sanctions.

Biggest importers of Russian grain are Turkey and Egypt (~50% of total exported grain), which control canals  which are very important for Russia's Black Sea operations.

Russia is already blocking Ukraine's grain which mainly went western Africa

With gas Russia already has stopped most of the flow (either they stopped flow fully or most of it as they claim they need to repair North Stream), which has already forced even Germany to seek fast alternative from coal.

Russian fertilizer is being exported to the west.

[Elerond]

39 minutes ago, Sarex said:

Russian fertilizer is being exported to the west.

To some extent, as even though fertilizers aren't targeted by sanctions, the amount fertilizers are imported from Russia is dropped 80% and Russian fertilizer production is dropped ~40%, which is caused that many Russian beverage makers are running our of carbon acid as almost all carbon acid in Russia has been side product of fertilizer production.

[Malcador]

5 hours ago, ShadySands said:

Sounds like our ploy to get Europe on our LNG is going according to plan

Lies, America is Europe's friend

[pmp10]

9 hours ago, Elerond said:

Russian grain is not exported to west, but mainly in countries that Russia would not like to join western sanctions.

Biggest importers of Russian grain are Turkey and Egypt (~50% of total exported grain), which control canals  which are very important for Russia's Black Sea operations.

Russia is already blocking Ukraine's grain which mainly went western Africa

Precisely.
With Ukrainian export largely blocked, a self-sanctioning ban on Russian's part could cause hunger in Africa and spark more migration crisis in the EU.
Maybe even more Arab springs which would disrupt fossil fuel production there.
 
 

[BruceVC]

12 hours ago, kanisatha said:

All major Western states have clearly said (yes including Germany and France) that a return to the 2/24 status quo is what would justify lifting Western sanctions. Will Putin ever agree to that? No, he won't. So the sanctions will continue.

My expectation of how the war ends:

- Russia occupies (and annexes?) all of the two Donbas provinces and much of the two southern Ukrainian provinces

- An armistice to stop the fighting, to which Russia will agree because it has exhausted its offensive forces; Ukraine may be able to leverage the return of the cities of Kherson and Melitopol

- No one recognizes or accepts Russia's occupation or annexation of any Ukrainian territories or any new "independent" states

- Western sanctions on Russia remain in place

I agree with most of this. Western sanctions will remain, its a long term game. At least until Putins gone and we see a more reasonable and responsible leadership in Russia 

And the only countries that will recognize the " new Russian controlled eastern states " will be the normal Russian friends that vetoed UN resolutions which are  the worlds must autocratic and failed states like NK, Cuba, Venezuela and Syria. Not sure what  stance Serbia will take when they not still going on about Bosnia and Kosovo (time to move on guys )

And it doesnt matter if China and India are "neutral " and buy energy from Russia,  their own self-interests will understandably come first. You need UN support to ensure the Donbas becomes a recognized and functional member of the international community and I doubt that is going to happen because of Putins War 

[BruceVC]

16 minutes ago, pmp10 said:

Precisely.
With Ukrainian export largely blocked, a self-sanctioning ban on Russian's part could cause hunger in Africa and spark more migration crisis in the EU.
Maybe even more Arab springs which would disrupt fossil fuel production there.
 
 

The main OPEC countries werent impacted in a huge way by the Arab Spring and wont be impacted by the Ruskies weaponizing famine. The starvation risk will be towards very poor countries like Yemen, Sudan and Somalia that are dealing with other things like drought and civil war so the Russian wheat blockage just exacerbates their current situation 

[BruceVC]

5 hours ago, Malcador said:

Lies, America is Europe's friend

Correct they are, did you see the highlights of the G7? Biden and Scholz having a Bromance and Johnson and Macron with their arms around each other

It was nice to see even if grown men hugging is a bit awkward 

[Elerond]

28 minutes ago, pmp10 said:

Precisely.
With Ukrainian export largely blocked, a self-sanctioning ban on Russian's part could cause hunger in Africa and spark more migration crisis in the EU.
Maybe even more Arab springs which would disrupt fossil fuel production there.
 
 

But Russia is not exporting grain to parts of Africa that suffering from lack of food already. 

Russia could decide to not import grain to Egypt, but that would be quite risk them as I am pretty sure that Egypt would retaliate and block all ships from Russia and to Russia from using Suez canal

[Chilloutman]

17 hours ago, kanisatha said:

Well, this should if anything raise some serious questions about defense preparedness in Czechia and other NATO countries. If you are running out of arms reserves just simply supporting another state in its war, how will you have fared fighting your own war? The Czech people should ask some serious questions of their politicians about how long their own military would have lasted facing a Russian invasion.

Well not very long, thats why we are in NATO. We are country of 10mil, Russia is country of 150mil. Its not reasonable to expect us to stand on our own against such odds. Besides we are not neighbor of Russia

[Elerond]

16 minutes ago, Chilloutman said:

Well not very long, thats why we are in NATO. We are country of 10mil, Russia is country of 150mil. Its not reasonable to expect us to stand on our own against such odds. Besides we are not neighbor of Russia

Finland even though it is only 5.5 million country tries to upkeep army that is able to stand against Russia. I think it is more about perceived threat caused by Russia towards Czechia has not merited similar military spending

[pmp10]

Russia is now officially in foreign debt default
Might be another point of long-term economic damage but shouldn't change much as far as war goes.

[xzar_monty]

18 hours ago, Elerond said:

As example how fast Russians rebuild area they occupy, Karelia which Soviets took from Finland in second world war has only seen minimal rebuilding and most of that is done by Finnish Karelians who have tried to rebuild it for nostalgic reasons

This, by the way, just about perfectly encapsulates the Russian mentality. I agree that Russia will rebuild nothing.

(Heck, even now they have no interest in Ukrainian homes or infrastructure. They don't want to take all that for themselves. They want to destroy it all.)

[BruceVC]

1 hour ago, Chilloutman said:

Well not very long, thats why we are in NATO. We are country of 10mil, Russia is country of 150mil. Its not reasonable to expect us to stand on our own against such odds. Besides we are not neighbor of Russia

You still need to ensure you fund  your own resources and  your own military , I remember during the Cold War Czechoslovakia  was well known as a  country that produced effective weapons and other military armaments for the " stinking Commie subversives "

During wars like Angola their were Czech military advisors working with the Soviets and supporting the failed and false narrative of Communism. And like the Cubans they were feared and respected 

So the point I am making is Czech mustnt undermine its  history of being  a reliable arms producer 

 

[BruceVC]

44 minutes ago, pmp10 said:

Russia is now officially in foreign debt default
Might be another point of long-term economic damage but shouldn't change much as far as war goes.

This is significant, first time since 1998,  and is another sign of what is coming for the Russian economy and its sustainability and growth due to Western sanctions