Ukraine Conflict - "History never looks like history when you are living through it."

[pmp10]

Russian economy to do better than expected.
If this is remotely accurate a next war is nigh inevitable.

[Darkpriest]

1 hour ago, Mamoulian War said:

Well I still think a lot of people in the west (hopefully a lot of politician in charge) can see, that doing nothing would cost the EU much more in the end, than spent few years in recession. And yes NS2 might be opened soon, and I would not object at all to open it. Of course only if some guys would finally fins enough balls to offer some lead treatment to Vladimir...

The other thing is, that EU is already in heavy talks with African countries like Senegal, DPR Congo (probably even more), about improving their LNG/gas drilling infrastructure. Which if done correctly and in at least half the amount, which are we now importing from Russia, would be much more benefiting to EU. If for nothing, than at least for it being less of an security issue to us.

You are very optimistic on the people part. I'm more inclined to believe that the further away from the border the more ignorant the people are and even some, who are aware of this, will be more interested with their own budgets and the way of life. I doubt people will be happy to lose warm water on demand or having to waer thicker clothing all day, etc. 

 

https://www.welt.de/newsticker/dpa_nt/infoline_nt/wirtschaft_nt/article239693719/Umweltsenator-Hamburg-koennte-Warmwasser-rationieren.html

(again in German) btw, i wonder if @Lexxhas some more insights from German politics as the conflict persists and touches Germans more and more. 

Edited July 6, 2022 by Darkpriest

[Darkpriest]

And this is the article about analytics I've mentioned a page ago

https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-germany-gas-idAFL8N2YF1X1

@Mamoulian War I'm quite sure that this is far beyond the pain treshold that Germans or for that matter any country would be willing to pay for "not their" war. 

Edited July 6, 2022 by Darkpriest

[Lexx]

7 hours ago, Darkpriest said:

(again in German) btw, i wonder if @Lexxhas some more insights from German politics as the conflict persists and touches Germans more and more. 

tbh I barely read anything about it. It's not big in the news here.

[Darkpriest]

1 hour ago, Lexx said:

tbh I barely read anything about it. It's not big in the news here.

Now you've got me guessing what is? 

I was expecting that people talk more about high cost of living, potential rationing of energy and heating, first trade deficit in a very long time, etc. 

[Lexx]

Well, sure, people talk about it (higher food prices). But if I browse my google news feed, there isn't much about it.

Personally I'm paying 100€ more per month for food now.

[Sarex]

1 hour ago, Darkpriest said:

Now you've got me guessing what is? 

I was expecting that people talk more about high cost of living, potential rationing of energy and heating, first trade deficit in a very long time, etc. 

The biggest talking point right now in Germany, after the 50% reduction in gas deliveries from Russia, is pretty much local politics. Everyone is blaming Merkel for the situation they are currently in and dreading the recession that is happening (while not being willing to accept that the cheap gas is a big reason of their economic prosperity). All of this is compounded by the fact that Scholz is toothless and not at all in control of the goverment.

[BruceVC]

2 hours ago, Sarex said:

The biggest talking point right now in Germany, after the 50% reduction in gas deliveries from Russia, is pretty much local politics. Everyone is blaming Merkel for the situation they are currently in and dreading the recession that is happening (while not being willing to accept that the cheap gas is a big reason of their economic prosperity). All of this is compounded by the fact that Scholz is toothless and not at all in control of the goverment.

Yes Sarex that must be true, great economic analysis there. Germanys economic success and strength must be because of  Russian energy. It cant be because of the correct economic policies, hard work, effective government that ensures accountability and governance,  the EU, education system or the advanced industrialization of Germany and now without Russian energy its going to collapse 

Makes perfect sense 

 

[Mamoulian War]

13 hours ago, Darkpriest said:

And this is the article about analytics I've mentioned a page ago

https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-germany-gas-idAFL8N2YF1X1

@Mamoulian War I'm quite sure that this is far beyond the pain treshold that Germans or for that matter any country would be willing to pay for "not their" war. 

We'll see. The end of the article already states that Germany is upping their efforts to get gas from somewhere else.

Also, Slovakia is full of people on social media, who are crying and spelling doom and gloom about how is everything expensive and that the state should care for Slovakia first and forget about Ukraine, but as soon as holidays started, half of the country already left to superexpensive Croatia. The car business (both new and used) is growing day by day, despite gas and diesel prices being double of what it was year and half ago... Not willing to start using trains/buses/bikes, parking lots before supermarkets are as full as before war happened... So it pretty much seems like, that it is still not enough expensive here for people to start rallying to stop supporting Ukraine. Well of course with the exception of few people, for whom would be more appropriate stay in a mental hospital, than in any public places, who still yell, that UA soldiers are killing their own civilians and blowing up their own cities, and Russia is there to save them...

That being said, we are one of the biggest ****holes of EU according to our income, so I really have my doubt, if people here do not care about higher prices, that it would move an average German or Briton

[Darkpriest]

7 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

We'll see. The end of the article already states that Germany is upping their efforts to get gas from somewhere else.

Also, Slovakia is full of people on social media, who are crying and spelling doom and gloom about how is everything expensive and that the state should care for Slovakia first and forget about Ukraine, but as soon as holidays started, half of the country already left to superexpensive Croatia. The car business (both new and used) is growing day by day, despite gas and diesel prices being double of what it was year and half ago... Not willing to start using trains/buses/bikes, parking lots before supermarkets are as full as before war happened... So it pretty much seems like, that it is still not enough expensive here for people to start rallying to stop supporting Ukraine. Well of course with the exception of few people, for whom would be more appropriate stay in a mental hospital, than in any public places, who still yell, that UA soldiers are killing their own civilians and blowing up their own cities, and Russia is there to save them...

That being said, we are one of the biggest ****holes of EU according to our income, so I really have my doubt, if people here do not care about higher prices, that it would move an average German or Briton

People are not  keen on letting their habbits die... 

I wonder how much of that is being funded by increasing credit, and more debt on credit cards. 

People tend to go into excessive debt, which they later cannot repay rather than stop doing something that they are used to and consider a  mandatory part of their life. 

 

[Lexx]

Not sure how it's in slovakia, but in germany credit cards aren't as common as in america. We generally don't go into dept as easily as that. That means, nobody is throwing credit cards after the average Joe with the goal of having him spend all the money on it, so that he has to get a new credit card to pay of the old dept and make new one.

Edited July 7, 2022 by Lexx

[Mamoulian War]

3 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

People are not  keen on letting their habbits die... 

I wonder how much of that is being funded by increasing credit, and more debt on credit cards. 

People tend to go into excessive debt, which they later cannot repay rather than stop doing something that they are used to and consider a  mandatory part of their life. 

 

That is pretty much possible, but the credit or debt for non-rational people starts to bite them in the ass maybe in a year or two I've already lived through periods, where I quit my coding job, to being voluntarily unemployed for half year, just to get rid of my burnout, with my income dropping to 15-20%, of what I have used to get. I managed to overcome it, without need of any loan, because I adjusted my lifestyle to the current situation... And it was in middle of my twenties... So, I am sorry, but I do not have a sympathy for people, living on a high horse, when they are not able to afford it in current circumstances

[Mamoulian War]

3 minutes ago, Lexx said:

Not sure how it's in slovakia, but in germany credit cards aren't as common as in america. We generally don't go into dept as easily as that. That means, nobody is throwing credit cards after the average Joe with the goal of having him spend all the money on it, so that he has to get a new credit card to pay of the old dept and make new one.

It is pretty much same in Slovakia as in Germany. But we have one big issue. Because of incompetent governments, we have very low number of rental housing, therefore we have very bad habit, that every couple, their dogs and hamsters, must own their own apartment/house. And that makes us on average pretty indebted country. But unless, there will be also a burst of housing bubble in the near term, I do not see average "Joe" to run out of their money, especially that now, one competent minister has been found in our country, which solved over the course of three - four weeks all shortage of gas for our industry for the next winter. So we are set, although the prices of Gas and Electricity will go up pretty steeply. But the price of car fuel is already going slowly down.

[Mamoulian War]

Official list of all destroyed warehouses and command posts since arrival of CEZARs and HIMARSes. Yesterday I counted three more big explosions, and today UA army started to destroy the railway infrastructure in occupied territories, on which is Russian military more dependent for supply logistic, than Germany economy on Russian gas...

Also, I found today a very nice and heartwarming interview with female sergeant, who had commanded their troops in Rubizhne, Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, which shares a little bit of insights, of how it looked like on the frontline.
 

 

[Hurlshort]

46 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

That is pretty much possible, but the credit or debt for non-rational people starts to bite them in the ass maybe in a year or two I've already lived through periods, where I quit my coding job, to being voluntarily unemployed for half year, just to get rid of my burnout, with my income dropping to 15-20%, of what I have used to get. I managed to overcome it, without need of any loan, because I adjusted my lifestyle to the current situation... And it was in middle of my twenties... So, I am sorry, but I do not have a sympathy for people, living on a high horse, when they are not able to afford it in current circumstances

It was a lot easier to adjust finances in my 20's than it is in my 40's while supporting a household with kids and a wife. For example, skipping a season of hockey for myself as an adult is fine, but it is a lot harder to tell my kids you can't play because we don't have the money. I'll be managing debt until they are grown up, most likely.

[Mamoulian War]

2 minutes ago, Hurlsnot said:

It was a lot easier to adjust finances in my 20's than it is in my 40's while supporting a household with kids and a wife. For example, skipping a season of hockey for myself as an adult is fine, but it is a lot harder to tell my kids you can't play because we don't have the money. I'll be managing debt until they are grown up, most likely.

Well, my example was definitely an example from my country, which economic situation I pretty much know a lot. And believe me it is much different from the US, and how people here are living and spending their money. Some people here are rather tell kids, that they can't play, than skipping their own season... I know it was not expressed properly in my post, but I've seen already so many cases of guys, who rather took loans on new BMW, while they were still living with their kids together with their parents, than to spent it on well-being of their family or education of their kids...

[Malcador]

16 hours ago, pmp10 said:

Russian economy to do better than expected.
If this is remotely accurate a next war is nigh inevitable.

 

[Lexx]

Is that because their economy was already crap before? Can't really ruin what's already ruined.

[Elerond]

It depends on what is good.

500€ in month and trying to buy 300€ Nikes is not equation that seem good for your basic Russian. 

But oil oligarchs probably are just angry because they can't go their favorite holiday locations and buying their favorite luxury products is much more difficult, but economically they aren't hurting.

[Mamoulian War]

20 hours ago, pmp10 said:

Russian economy to do better than expected.
If this is remotely accurate a next war is nigh inevitable.

 

1 hour ago, Lexx said:

Is that because their economy was already crap before? Can't really ruin what's already ruined.

 

1 hour ago, Elerond said:

It depends on what is good.

500€ in month and trying to buy 300€ Nikes is not equation that seem good for your basic Russian. 

But oil oligarchs probably are just angry because they can't go their favorite holiday locations and buying their favorite luxury products is much more difficult, but economically they aren't hurting.

Well, I would say, that the statement of the Russian economy doing good is a little bit more than overstatement.

I have found a twitter account from some guy from German Institute for International and Security Affairs, who has some words on the situation.

You remember the doom and gloom how the high cost of oil would destroy the west?

Here is the prediction from Citigroup. (we are almost at the level of pre-war prices and it is going just downward.)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-05/citi-warns-oil-may-collapse-to-65-by-the-year-end-on-recession-l57ro9of

The funny thing is, that Russia is already selling their Ural oil for these prices, and is trending downwards further... And guess what happens to the country who is completely dependant on their fossil fuel exports? Well, just look at Venezuela, and you can see, where the Russian economy is slowly heading...

It is little bit different with Gas export, but you can clearly see, how much they are losing in every other industry and export. So if the west hold tight and does everything to solve their Gas issue, Putin's Russia will be in pretty deep troubles... IMHO even such big tariffs can not substitute the losses in everything else in the longterm.

And here is the effect of the invasion on Russia's heavy industry...

And here is his analysis on the Russian economy as a whole published on June 30. If you decide to read it, just do not stop reading after the first paragraph, the most interesting stuff follows .

 

[HoonDing]

lol @ the vids of Russia blowing up some HiMaR$

[ShadySands]

In-laws in Russia are definitely feeling the pain. One of my wife's cousins wants to flee the country because of poor economic prospects, not wanting to raise his kids in such a hateful environment, and being afraid of being locked up for not being on board with the war.

[Sarex]

8 minutes ago, ShadySands said:

In-laws in Russia are definitely feeling the pain. One of my wife's cousins wants to flee the country because of poor economic prospects, not wanting to raise his kids in such a hateful environment, and being afraid of being locked up for not being on board with the war.

Most of the IT people moved to Serbia, as they can't get any money in to Russia. As for being locked up, I kind of doubt the goverment cares very much what some civilian thinks.

[BruceVC]

20 minutes ago, ShadySands said:

In-laws in Russia are definitely feeling the pain. One of my wife's cousins wants to flee the country because of poor economic prospects, not wanting to raise his kids in such a hateful environment, and being afraid of being locked up for not being on board with the war.

I have made this same point on Codex several times but I genuinely feel sorry for those Russians who dont support and never did the invasion of Ukraine. Thats one of the many disadvantages of living in an autocratic state like Russia. Citizens have no voice and no way to change the economic trajectory and future of Russia

We have problems in all our Constitutional Democracies with the current global  inflation but they are nothing compared to what Russia will be like in the next 18-24 months. 

And on Codex the  majority of  cheerleaders of Putins War all live in Western, first world countries. Of course none of them would actually live in Russia. And most of the Russian members who live in Russia dont like Putin and dont support the invasion. They care about their country like any patriot would but they not supportive of what Putin has done and they not positive about the future 

[BruceVC]

I see the oil price is down to $102, nice. Hopefully it drops more and stays low, that will be a huge help in ending the high  global inflation