Ukraine Conflict - "History never looks like history when you are living through it."

[Darkpriest]

5 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

I like the new Pope and he genuinely means well but he is not an economist or a politician and he has said things in the past I dont agree with or are not accurate

For example he has often made comments that Capitalism just creates inequality and profitability is about greed when in fact profitability is a measurement of good corporate governance  and is critical to both a country and any business being sustainable. For example if every company runs at a loss you wont collect much tax and your economy will collapse so profitability  is not a bad thing but it cant be at the expense of labor laws and basic human rights 

Would you also agree with the Pope when he said a month ago that the Russian Orthodox Church "  mustnt become Putin's altar boy"  and Francesco also criticized Kirill for "approving the stated reasons of Russia for the occupation of Ukraine"?

https://www.txtreport.com/news/2022-05-04-pope-criticizes-russian-patriarch--do-not-become-"putin-s-altar-boy".B1JHr1g89.html

Would you agree he is right about those comments about Putins War?

I do not think it is inaccurate and inconsistent from other ones of his. 

As he said, it's much more complex. 

[BruceVC]

11 hours ago, kanisatha said:

Piece from a very highly regarded academic that puts this very issue in great perspective:

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-could-be-an-inflection-point-eu-us-west-war-russia/

This is a great link, very thought provoking 

[Darkpriest]

Agree with Portugal PM here

https://www.ft.com/content/1b8abda1-4670-4c01-8ae9-bd90c9647d5d

[Gorth]

1 hour ago, BruceVC said:

Would you also agree with the Pope when he said a month ago that the Russian Orthodox Church "  mustnt become Putin's altar boy"

That is rich coming from the head of the worlds largest pedophile ring... the same guy who paid millions of dollars to get a child rapist out of jail and flown back to Rome so he could go free

[BruceVC]

1 minute ago, Gorth said:

That is rich coming from the head of the worlds largest pedophile ring... the same guy who paid millions of dollars to get a child rapist out of jail and flown back to Rome so he could go free

This is the second time you have raised this that I can recall , can you post a link so I can understand the criticism?

[Gorth]

51 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

This is the second time you have raised this that I can recall , can you post a link so I can understand the criticism?

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/mar/11/george-pell-appeal-cardinals-lawyers-argue-jury-wrong-to-reject-improbability-claim

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-07/george-pell-appeal-jury-system/12129940

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/sep/30/george-pell-returns-to-rome-after-acquittal-on-child-abuse-charges

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/may/29/australias-holy-see-ambassador-under-fire-for-saying-she-wants-to-change-narrative-away-from-george-pell

https://www.cathnews.com/cathnews/43029-why-did-vatican-send-2m-to-australia-cardinal-pell

 

He effectively got what was life without parole (6 years) because of his age, for raping two young boys. He had powerful friends however, including a very religious Scott Morrison (no kidding, for being a liar, a fraud and a thief, the guy claims to be very Christian), so eventually he was allowed to appeal. Since the appeal was a confirmation of his guilt (as established already by a jury), more appeals were needed in a few more courts until they found a judge, which just so happens to be an old mate of Scott Morrisons. Still, it was a 2-1 decision (of course in Murdoch media, 2-1 is "unanimous" )

Tl;dr; between them, they managed to put the whole legal system in doubt. What's the point of having a trial by jury system if you can go free anyway fi you have rich and powerful friends?

For those of us who are not above the law... we'll just sing along with Tim Minchin.

 

Edit: As for the systemic sexual abuse of children in the church... the Royal Commission registered a bit more than 40.000 cases of sexual abuse of minors, of which ca. 2500 could be prosecuted

https://www.childabuseroyalcommission.gov.au/

 

 

[BruceVC]

24 minutes ago, Gorth said:

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/mar/11/george-pell-appeal-cardinals-lawyers-argue-jury-wrong-to-reject-improbability-claim

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-07/george-pell-appeal-jury-system/12129940

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/sep/30/george-pell-returns-to-rome-after-acquittal-on-child-abuse-charges

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/may/29/australias-holy-see-ambassador-under-fire-for-saying-she-wants-to-change-narrative-away-from-george-pell

https://www.cathnews.com/cathnews/43029-why-did-vatican-send-2m-to-australia-cardinal-pell

 

He effectively got what was life without parole (6 years) because of his age, for raping two young boys. He had powerful friends however, including a very religious Scott Morrison (no kidding, for being a liar, a fraud and a thief, the guy claims to be very Christian), so eventually he was allowed to appeal. Since the appeal was a confirmation of his guilt (as established already by a jury), more appeals were needed in a few more courts until they found a judge, which just so happens to be an old mate of Scott Morrisons. Still, it was a 2-1 decision (of course in Murdoch media, 2-1 is "unanimous" )

Tl;dr; between them, they managed to put the whole legal system in doubt. What's the point of having a trial by jury system if you can go free anyway fi you have rich and powerful friends?

For those of us who are not above the law... we'll just sing along with Tim Minchin.

 

Edit: As for the systemic sexual abuse of children in the church... the Royal Commission registered a bit more than 40.000 cases of sexual abuse of minors, of which ca. 2500 could be prosecuted

https://www.childabuseroyalcommission.gov.au/

 

 

Thanks, I will go through some of these links ( not all of them )

[rjshae]

4 hours ago, Elerond said:

Currently West has given relatively little to Ukraine.

With current speed amount of aid to Ukraine would be about half what USA spend in Afghanistan if they would continue to give aid in same speed for next 20 years

It depends on what you mean by relatively little. I wouldn't say ~$100 million per day is relatively little. The US likely won't spent as much on supporting a foreign war as they do on their own military activities.

[kanisatha]

4 hours ago, BruceVC said:

This is a great link, very thought provoking 

Yeah, I like analysts like Michta who think big and can see the big strategic picture. His overall geopolitical conclusion is absolutely correct. The war in Ukraine is ultimately not just about the future of Ukraine. It is very much also about the future of Europe.

[Malcador]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/15/justice-for-ukraine-overshadowed-by-cost-of-living-concerns-study-shows

Surprised concern over nuclear weapons is so high.

[Elerond]

1 hour ago, rjshae said:

It depends on what you mean by relatively little. I wouldn't say ~$100 million per day is relatively little. The US likely won't spent as much on supporting a foreign war as they do on their own military activities.

Question was about ability to continue to fund the war. In perspective that US was able to run two wars that cost more, increase its spending in new warfare outside of those wars, do countless military and intelligence operations around globe for two decades and still grow its economy significantly.

Meaning that west has ability to fund Ukraine for indefinitely with current level and it will have only minor impact in their economy in long run. More meaningful question would be is current level enough to give Ukraine actual fighting change or does it prolong inevitable result?

[Mamoulian War]

13 hours ago, pmp10 said:

They would but as we recently learned they have just ran out of shells for their artillery.

 

They announced, that they ran out of their own pre-war stock of soviet era shells. They still have hefty stock of them from Poland, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Baltics, Romania and Bulgaria. And they are stockpiling on NATO standard ammunition day by day.

[Mamoulian War]

13 hours ago, pmp10 said:

You seem convinced that Putin wields absolute power and can get Russians to do anything.
I think having sacrificed economy for greatness there will be serious upheaval if he fails to deliver.

And this has started to happen in Russia, there is growing discontent, a lot of pro-russian "telegramers" with hundreds of thousands of followers are already blaming Putin, and despite his assurance, how Russian economy and ruble is going strong, the people of Russia already know, that it is just a smelling heap of bull****, because they are already experiencing extreme inflation...

 

[Mamoulian War]

@Darkpriest

Different view on inflation data and rise of costs of living for EU, than from your sources.

ECB has released few days ago a prediction for next 3 years, and the outcome, with all of the **** hitting the fan around with covid and russia, is not that dark, as your sources predict. TLDR:

Inflation is projected to decrease to 3.5% in 2023 and 2.1% in 2024.

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/projections/html/ecb.projections202206_eurosystemstaff~2299e41f1e.en.html#toc7

 

[Zoraptor]

Yeah, but that's "the special military operation is going perfectly to plan!" type stuff. The EU/ ECB is not going to say "we're completely rogered, incoming financial apocalypse, buy shares in tinned beans makers they'll be the only thing left standing" because that's self fulfilling. They have to be upbeat about things.

Just look at their difference between projected inflation and projected wage rises though. Everyone in the EU will have a practical average ~4% pay cut once inflation is taken into account. That's fine, if you're an ECB economist living in Frankfurt on a million Euros, not so much if you aren't.

Edited June 15, 2022 by Zoraptor

[Malcador]

 

[Elerond]

8 minutes ago, Zoraptor said:

Everyone in the EU will have a practical average ~4% pay cut once inflation is taken into account.

That is pretty simplified reality.

As it is energy and imported goods that are causing most of the inflation. So it effects will not be evenly distributed among citizens.

HICP increase without energy is predicted to be 4.1%. So people who live in cities and use mass transits as their main form of transportation will not actually see any change in their living standard, which is majority of population in EU. 

It is the minority population that live in countryside that will see their living standard drop. 

So prediction is that average person/median person will not see any major change in their PP

[Malcador]

https://www.axios.com/2022/06/15/ukraine-1000-casualties-day-donbas-arakhamia

Guessing this is part of the "Scare Westerners" approach.

[Zoraptor]

45 minutes ago, Elerond said:

That is pretty simplified reality.

As it is energy and imported goods that are causing most of the inflation. So it effects will not be evenly distributed among citizens.

HICP increase without energy is predicted to be 4.1%. So people who live in cities and use mass transits as their main form of transportation will not actually see any change in their living standard, which is majority of population in EU. 

It is the minority population that live in countryside that will see their living standard drop. 

So prediction is that average person/median person will not see any major change in their PP

Everything is pretty simplified- so is saying that the US spent 100bn p/a on Afghanistan so they can spend 100bn on Ukraine when the vast majority of spending in Afghanistan wasn't actually on Afghanistan, it was on the US. Hence US military spending not reducing by 100bn on withdrawal (it's increased, of course).

The average projected wage loss is 4%. Much as they'd like to they can't wave a hand and pretend it isn't, that's pure feel good sophistry.

Median can be a better measure in some circumstances, it isn't here. Say that your example is correct and the 80% of people who live in cities aren't effected. Median then says everything is perfectly fine, there's actually positive effects. Even quartiles say everything is good. But, that practically means the rural 20% would see the small matter of a 20% decrease in wages to get the average back to 4%. Of course, they won't, because most rural workers are engaged directly or indirectly in agriculture, and... pass along costs to the people in cities. Either through increased prices, or increased CAP costs. Or they drop production/ go out of business. Either way, the people in the cities pay in increased prices, benefits etc; there may just be a lag.

Try explaining this to an economist though and you'll get a puzzled look and instant proof of the old "there are one types of people who believe in [infinite growth in a finite system; typically]: idiots and economists" adage. Economists have a cheery faith in the financial system which challenges the guy sitting on the roof of his flooded house refusing rescue because "God will save me" (WELL I TRIED, BUT YOU IGNORED THE BOAT AND HELICOPTER I SENT...)

Of course it's not going to be evenly distributed. I personally have the great advantage of having my income specifically pegged against inflation, and I have zero debt too so interest rates rising is a small advantage to me. I will get a 6% wage increase to match NZ's inflation rate, transport costs will be a bugger, but if anything I'm personally likely to do better than the last ten years despite that. But nothing is evenly distributed; everyone with debt is going to feel it in increased debt servicing costs and yes, the average person will be 4% worse off even if some aren't.

[Darkpriest]

4 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

@Darkpriest

Different view on inflation data and rise of costs of living for EU, than from your sources.

ECB has released few days ago a prediction for next 3 years, and the outcome, with all of the **** hitting the fan around with covid and russia, is not that dark, as your sources predict. TLDR:

Inflation is projected to decrease to 3.5% in 2023 and 2.1% in 2024.

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/projections/html/ecb.projections202206_eurosystemstaff~2299e41f1e.en.html#toc7

 

I will just point out to ECB or FED last year talking that the inflation tick is transitory... Or just how often they have been revising their prognosis... Problem is, ECB cannot say in their forecasts with current policy anything different that inflation will come down etc. because they would oppenly admit they are breaking their mandate... 

 

I smirked at todays emergency panic meeting, which was a nothing but admiting ECB is cornered between tightening policy and mking sure that fragmentation in bonds will not break up EUR. They've mentioned that they will create a tool, yet no details on it at all... No agreement on the emergency meeting... 

[Zoraptor]

Yeah, the forecasts don't exactly fill you with confidence when the previous ones were out by a lot and consistently had to revised down significantly.

The ultimate problem is how do you both control inflation yet avoid driving a significant number of people bankrupt with the interest rate rises you need to control the inflation; and hence tank the economy and risk the sort of bad debt storm there was in the GFC. The latter is particularly difficult after a sustained period of low interest rates inflated multiple bubbles fueled by the cheap credit. I don't think too many tears will be shed for the guy who mortgaged his house to buy NFTs at the peak of the market, but there are plenty of people who just wanted to own their own home rather than rent and suddenly find they're paying 4 times the amount of interest plus a lot more for fuel and groceries simultaneous with house prices dropping.

End of the day one of the biggest responsibilities of central bankers is to maintain Confidence; indeed that's why they have a mandate to tackle inflation in the first place. You can't maintain Confidence while telling people the Titanic is sinking and someone didn't give it enough lifeboats, you keep the orchestra playing so people don't panic.

[BruceVC]

1 hour ago, Zoraptor said:

Yeah, the forecasts don't exactly fill you with confidence when the previous ones were out by a lot and consistently had to revised down significantly.

The ultimate problem is how do you both control inflation yet avoid driving a significant number of people bankrupt with the interest rate rises you need to control the inflation; and hence tank the economy and risk the sort of bad debt storm there was in the GFC. The latter is particularly difficult after a sustained period of low interest rates inflated multiple bubbles fueled by the cheap credit. I don't think too many tears will be shed for the guy who mortgaged his house to buy NFTs at the peak of the market, but there are plenty of people who just wanted to own their own home rather than rent and suddenly find they're paying 4 times the amount of interest plus a lot more for fuel and groceries simultaneous with house prices dropping.

End of the day one of the biggest responsibilities of central bankers is to maintain Confidence; indeed that's why they have a mandate to tackle inflation in the first place. You can't maintain Confidence while telling people the Titanic is sinking and someone didn't give it enough lifeboats, you keep the orchestra playing so people don't panic.

Their is no such thing in life as real prognostication and economics is the same but you can more or less predict quarterly economic data accurately based on historical data when markets are stable and globalization is working and functional 

Thats not the case now so no one can say " the titanic is sinking " because thats just rhetoric but we all in for hard times on different levels until inflation subsides which is dependent on the supply chains working and the damage done by the 2 years of imprudent and severe lockdowns. And Putins War has exacerbated things definitely so we can blame Russia for making things worse

But for me I dont ever to hear people say things like " globalization is a problem " because now we experiencing what happens in a world where globalization is dysfunctional and this includes things like  oil sales, processors , global courier services and food exports 

So if their is one "silver lining "  to this high inflation its that I doubt we will ever be subjected to people protesting at meetings like Davos and making  irritating and meaningless comments like " down with globalization " 

[xzar_monty]

On 6/15/2022 at 12:22 AM, Zoraptor said:

Eh, that's super simplistic. And that rhetorical construct is abused all the time.
"Don't be ridiculous. Palestine always has the option to just stop" <--> "Don't be ridiculous. Israel always has the option to just stop"

I agree that the rhetorical construct is abused all the time, and I wouldn't use it in the case of Palestine or Israel. However, from this it does not follow that the ability to just stop wouldn't apply to Russia. (This, btw, is in response to @Gorth as well, it's too much of a hassle to quote both on a similar topic.)

What you both said does apply here, as does the psychological problem of resources already spent (in the same way a gambler will often continue 'because the big win is just around the corner' even if it would be wiser to just stop and accept the current losses). But I still believe that because of the extent to which Putin controls the narrative in Russia, he could stop. The goals of the operation have already changed, and Putin could declare victory right now by saying that Mariupol has been liberated, and that would be that.

Now, he absolutely won't do it. But the original claim that I objected to was that both Russia and Ukraine are effectively out of options, and thus the collective west is the main culprit for the continuation of the war. This claim is just stupid, in my opinion, and I actually wonder whether the person who made it is one of those who think that rape victims generally deserve it -- the logic is similar.

Ukraine has no options, because surrender just isn't realistic. Russia has all kinds of options. It won't use them, but it absolutely does have them.

Edited June 16, 2022 by xzar_monty

[BruceVC]

11 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

I agree that the rhetorical construct is abused all the time, and I wouldn't use it in the case of Palestine or Israel. However, from this it does not follow that the ability to just stop wouldn't apply to Russia. (This, btw, is in response to @Gorth as well, it's too much of a hassle to quote both on a similar topic.)

What you both said does apply here, as does the psychological problem of resources already spent (in the same way a gambler will often continue 'because the big win is just around the corner' even if it would be wiser to just stop and accept the current losses). But I still believe that because of the extent to which Putin controls the narrative in Russia, he could stop. The goals of the operation have already changed, and Putin could declare victory right now by saying that Mariupol has been liberated, and that would be that.

Now, he absolutely won't do it. But the original claim that I objected was that both Russia and Ukraine are effectively out of options, and thus the collective west is the main culprit for the continuation of the war. This claim is just stupid, in my opinion, and I actually wonder whether the person who made it is one of those who think that rape victims generally deserve it -- the logic is similar.

Ukraine has no options, because surrender just isn't realistic. Russia has all kinds of options. It won't use them, but it absolutely does have them.

Good post Monty, Putin can absolutely end the invasion of Ukraine 

But he wont at the moment because he is an autocratic and sociopath and this egregious invasion of Ukraine has to be seen as some sort of success

So if Russia is able to occupy eastern Ukraine I predict we will see a " peace solution " from Russia and the question is will Ukraine accept it? Their are so many moving parts its hard to know 

[pmp10]

7 hours ago, Elerond said:

HICP increase without energy is predicted to be 4.1%. So people who live in cities and use mass transits as their main form of transportation will not actually see any change in their living standard, which is majority of population in EU. 

It is the minority population that live in countryside that will see their living standard drop. 

So prediction is that average person/median person will not see any major change in their PP

If memory serves the average European owns a car and will definitely be hit by rising fuel prices.
And consider rising food prices in poorer eastern European countries.
Your median Estonian household was already spending 20% of income getting fed and now is now seeing 20% price hikes in foodstuffs. 
It's little consolation that if we match them up with unaffected Irish the average looks fine.