Ukraine Conflict - "Only the dead have seen the end of war."

[Mamoulian War]

I bet the numbers from both sides were/are overinflated. UAs because they wanted to be seen as more powerful, and RUs as they do not want to be riduculed, that it took to almost three months to defeat few hundreds of Azov volunteers , while making 100 thousands Russians homeless and aprox 10000 of them dead... Not to count the number of soldiers and equipment lost due to their incompetence at urban warfare

[Lexx]

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/05/22/7347746/

"Western sanctions "virtually wrecked all logistics" in Russia."

I'm confused. Putin said last month that western sanctions have failed.

Edited May 22, 2022 by Lexx

[Zoraptor]

Russian Minister of Transport via opposition media and Ukrainian Pravda plus at least one translation isn't exactly convincing. There's certainly been a big PR push to suggest that logistics is falling apart in Russia with very little actual evidence for it since week 1- remember those "Russia will be out of [supplies] in x days" claims from, well, literally week 1? Nearly 3 months later and they don't seem to have actually run out of anything.

Indeed, the failure to deliver even a proper default has lead to some... counterproductive ideas being floated, like capital I Instructing US bond holders to refuse payments from Russia. Which would achieve the result of a 'default', but only with the air quotes, and also achieve the result of telling everyone that the USD is an inherently unsafe currency to hold debt in since you're only solvent at the whim of the US. It would do far more damage to the US long term than anyone else, all for the purpose of being able to say that sanctions delivered a result.

[BruceVC]

6 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

Russian Minister of Transport via opposition media and Ukrainian Pravda plus at least one translation isn't exactly convincing. There's certainly been a big PR push to suggest that logistics is falling apart in Russia with very little actual evidence for it since week 1- remember those "Russia will be out of [supplies] in x days" claims from, well, literally week 1? Nearly 3 months later and they don't seem to have actually run out of anything.

Indeed, the failure to deliver even a proper default has lead to some... counterproductive ideas being floated, like capital I Instructing US bond holders to refuse payments from Russia. Which would achieve the result of a 'default', but only with the air quotes, and also achieve the result of telling everyone that the USD is an inherently unsafe currency to hold debt in since you're only solvent at the whim of the US. It would do far more damage to the US long term than anyone else, all for the purpose of being able to say that sanctions delivered a result.

Only those people who are anti-Western who keep telling us their is going to be a  "new world economic " order due to Putins War believe the $ is an unsafe currency

Its the same rhetoric and grandstanding we all heard after 2008 and yet the $  is still the worlds reserve currency

Words like the " weaponization " of the $ are exaggerated and ignore the fact that none of these economic sanctions occur in a  vacuum. So its not like the US has ever implemented these types of $ based sanctions before and this was consequence of the unprovoked invasion of Ukraine

And then most importantly the question  is " which currency should replace the $ and which country should we trust as the worlds reserve currency holder " ?

 

[Gorth]

3 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

And then most importantly the question  is " which currency should replace the $ and which country should we trust as the worlds reserve currency holder " ?

Bitcoin and The Internet!!!

[BruceVC]

23 minutes ago, Gorth said:

Bitcoin and The Internet!!!

Gorthfuscious dont joke but some commentators are suggesting this 

[Mamoulian War]

Russian officer losses since start of invasion

 

And current Ukrainian casualties at the East

Reported Russians daily losses are approx 100-250.

[xzar_monty]

A big reason for losses high up in the hierarchy is that the system is indeed extraordinaly hierarchical in the sense that initiative is positively discouraged, and in strong terms. Thus, when logistical or other problems occur, someone lower in the command chain is unwilling to make a choice, because it could be wrong and the consequences would be severe. Thus, someone from higher up the command chain will have to come over and solve the problem, which may mean long telephone calls, which may mean Ukrainians listening, which may mean sniper fire or missile strike.

According to the military experts I've listened to, you don't get stuff like this in most modern armies, but the Russian army is different.

[pmp10]

3 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

And current Ukrainian casualties at the East

Reported Russians daily losses are approx 100-250.

These given Russian losses are almost certainly general casualties, whereas Zelensky spoke of fatalities.
If we assume the classic 3 wounded to 1 killed ratio in casualties, then Ukraine is suffering 1 to 1 KIAs while on the defensive.
Not a good sign for any offensive actions. 

[xzar_monty]

37 minutes ago, pmp10 said:

These given Russian losses are almost certainly general casualties, whereas Zelensky spoke of fatalities.
If we assume the classic 3 wounded to 1 killed ratio in casualties, then Ukraine is suffering 1 to 1 KIAs while on the defensive.
Not a good sign for any offensive actions. 

Apparently, this classic 3 wounded to 1 killed ratio does not apply to the Russian army because a) wounded are left behind to die, b) medical care on the front is at an abysmal level. It's significantly worse than 3 to 1 with Russia, but the exact number is impossible to say. This bit of info comes again from a military expert.

[xzar_monty]

Senior Russian diplomat resigns: https://unwatch.org/exclusive-senior-russian-diplomat-at-u-n-defects/

His open letter:

[rjshae]

I sense an unpleasant encounter with Novichok lies in his future...

[Gorth]

1 hour ago, rjshae said:

I sense an unpleasant encounter with Novichok lies in his future...

Russian agents are just as bad as their army... most assassination attempts are high profile failures.

[Malcador]

3 hours ago, pmp10 said:

These given Russian losses are almost certainly general casualties, whereas Zelensky spoke of fatalities.
If we assume the classic 3 wounded to 1 killed ratio in casualties, then Ukraine is suffering 1 to 1 KIAs while on the defensive.
Not a good sign for any offensive actions. 

Well they have large numbers in the west, getting ready, so at least still have capability.

[xzar_monty]

13 hours ago, Gorth said:

Russian agents are just as bad as their army... most assassination attempts are high profile failures.

I wonder whether the two recent oligarchs killed with their families were high profile successes or murder-suicides out of absolute panic.

But yes, Russia does have a great amount of failure in its past. Interestingly, so does Britain. (Well, any nation or culture that's been around for a while has failures, but Russia and Britain come to mind first when I think of high-profile failures. And heck, even Israel got a huge blemish from the Lillehammer affair.)

[Gorth]

1 hour ago, xzar_monty said:

I wonder whether the two recent oligarchs killed with their families were high profile successes or murder-suicides out of absolute panic.

But yes, Russia does have a great amount of failure in its past. Interestingly, so does Britain. (Well, any nation or culture that's been around for a while has failures, but Russia and Britain come to mind first when I think of high-profile failures. And heck, even Israel got a huge blemish from the Lillehammer affair.)

I wouldn't underestimate the Israeli intelligence services. There may be a few blemishes here and there, but they've "generally" assassinated a large number of people successfully in recent years. They don't seem to care much about the fallout or consequences either, as long as they get their target, whether they be politicians, military people or scientists/academics

[xzar_monty]

1 hour ago, Gorth said:

I wouldn't underestimate the Israeli intelligence services. There may be a few blemishes here and there, but they've "generally" assassinated a large number of people successfully in recent years. They don't seem to care much about the fallout or consequences either, as long as they get their target, whether they be politicians, military people or scientists/academics

I absolutely don't underestimate them.

You're right, they don't care much about fallout. They don't care about co-operating, either. One of the things that surfaced with Snowden's NSA leaks was that while Israel was very keen to get all the information it could from the US, it didn't really want to reciprocate. The US wasn't happy, of course. Apparently, Israel couldn't have cared less.

[xzar_monty]

@Gorth, this goes off topic for this thread, but here's a good example of how to conduct murders. This doesn't appear to be the way Russia operates. It's a grisly subject, but this is extremely interesting. Israel tends to be quite good. Again, just take a look at how ruthless Israel is and how little it apparently cares for any fallout.

Wiki article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Mahmoud_Al-Mabhouh

Footage:

 

Edited May 24, 2022 by xzar_monty

[pmp10]

So interestingly after (imo questionable) suggestions that Ukraine could win the war a number of voices have been raised urging them not to.
Kissinger just joined that group after Macron, Draghi among others.

They cannot possibly believe that Russia is willing to retreat from taken land, so what exactly are they playing at?

Edited May 24, 2022 by pmp10

[Azdeus]

26 minutes ago, pmp10 said:

So interestingly after (imo questionable) suggestions that Ukraine could win the war a number of voices have been raised urging them not to.
Kissinger just joined that group after Macron, Draghi among others.

They cannot possibly believe that Russia is willing to retreat from taken land, so what exactly are they playing at?

Their wallets are hurting

[xzar_monty]

56 minutes ago, pmp10 said:

So interestingly after (imo questionable) suggestions that Ukraine could win the war a number of voices have been raised urging them not to.
Kissinger just joined that group after Macron, Draghi among others.

You'll find an awful lot of people who are prepared to argue that Kissinger is essentially something like a close second to Putin among people who you should never even listen to, let alone trust. I wonder what @kanisatha thinks about this/him.

[kanisatha]

6 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

You'll find an awful lot of people who are prepared to argue that Kissinger is essentially something like a close second to Putin among people who you should never even listen to, let alone trust. I wonder what @kanisatha thinks about this/him.

No shocker for me at all that Kissinger is pushing for appeasing Russia (though unlike Macron and co. and the NYT, at least he has the decency to still say it is up to the Ukrainians to decide, and this is just his recommendation). Kissinger is a conundrum for me. On the one hand, his academic books and articles are superb: sound logic, impeccable research and documentation, beautiful writing, comprehensive coverage of the subject. His Diplomacy is the best book out there on that subject. Ditto his book World Order. But on the other hand, he (along with Mearsheimer and Walt among others) are those realists who believe the way to keep great powers from doing bad things in the world is to appease them (though conveniently this is not applied to the U.S., and only to "other" great powers such as the former Soviet Union, the PRC, post-Soviet Russia, post-Cold War Germany, and even today's Iran). I generally agree with realist thinking, but on appeasement I'm a hard 'no'.

[Malcador]

I didn't really see much of the appeasement in the NYT piece.  Just seemed pessimistic a tad, well and the US stance on things being unclear. 

[kanisatha]

53 minutes ago, Malcador said:

I didn't really see much of the appeasement in the NYT piece.  Just seemed pessimistic a tad, well and the US stance on things being unclear. 

No I was referring to a recent NYT op-ed in which the editors demanded that Western leaders force Ukraine to give up land for a peace deal with Russia.

[kanisatha]

Here's a very interesting piece, yet another interview with a major realist scholar, except that Allison is someone I typically agree with a lot and I use his books in my classes often:

https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/interview-dealing-with-horrible-leaders-is-part-of-the-history-of-international-relations-a-31a0aabb-35eb-4107-a65f-39ae5f79c9e7