Ukraine Conflict - Das Himmelfahrtskommando

[Lexx]

25 minutes ago, Gfted1 said:

Im curious now, cant you guys see the edited posts by clicking the "see edit history" link, or is that just for mods and above?

We do not wield such powers.

[Gfted1]

Huh, I thought everyone could see edited posts, that way posters could see what was edited after the fact. For example, on my UI, just below Elerond's most recent post is: "Edited 31 minutes ago by Elerond (see edit history)". Tremble before my might!

[Malcador]

2 hours ago, Gorth said:

US intelligence services have been wrong before. Wouldn't be the first or the last time they missed the mark. It's not always an exact science.

It is funny how everything they say remains gospel

 

6 hours ago, Elerond said:

It is designed to carry nuclear weapons during war time

https://www.militaryfactory.com/aircraft/detail.php?aircraft_id=194

Ah ok, was searching at 0100 without my glasses for the Russian equivalent of the B61 but nothing came to mind.

  

Edited March 31, 2022 by Malcador

[Elerond]

2 minutes ago, Malcador said:

It is funny how everything they say remains gospel

 

Ah ok, was searching at 0100 without my glasses for the Russian equivalent of the B61 but nothing came to mind.

At least Kh-15, Kh-55 and Kh-59 are lighter Soviet/Russian air to surface missiles that have tactical nuclear warhead version

[BruceVC]

33 minutes ago, Malcador said:

It is funny how everything they say remains gospel

 

Ah ok, was searching at 0100 without my glasses for the Russian equivalent of the B61 but nothing came to mind.

  

The US shared  intelligence is generally accurate. What people always tend to do is bring up Iraq and 2003 as the current reality of accuracy 

I remember in 2016 the US warned SA about an imminent attack from ISIS. Our intelligence services are badly trained and resourced and have no real idea of global threats so immediately their was this denialism from our foreign affairs and the " its Islamophobia " card was played

A month after the US alerting us 4 South Africans were arrested with links to ISIS and plans to attack Jewish and American targets in SA 

https://face2faceafrica.com/article/us-warns-south-africa-terror-attacks-ramadanhttps://face2faceafrica.com/article/us-warns-south-africa-terror-attacks-ramadan

https://allafrica.com/stories/202202090193.html

 

 

Edited March 31, 2022 by BruceVC

[Darkpriest]

Russian propaganda in action?

Not sure what those crazy Ivans are doing... 

 

Edited March 31, 2022 by Darkpriest

[Malcador]

5 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

The US shared  intelligence is generally accurate. What people always tend to do is bring up Iraq and 2003 as the current reality of accuracy 

I remember in 2016 the US warned SA about an imminent attack from ISIS. Our intelligence services are badly trained and resourced and have no real idea of global threats so immediately their was this denialism from our foreign affairs and the " its Islamophobia " card was played

A month after the US alerting us 4 South Africans were arrested with links to ISIS and plans to attack Jewish and American targets in SA 

https://face2faceafrica.com/article/us-warns-south-africa-terror-attacks-ramadanhttps://face2faceafrica.com/article/us-warns-south-africa-terror-attacks-ramadan

https://allafrica.com/stories/202202090193.html

 

 

Yes, but have to admit reading "US official says.." with some of the claims should arouse some skepticism in you. 

[rjshae]

6 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

The US shared  intelligence is generally accurate. What people always tend to do is bring up Iraq and 2003 as the current reality of accuracy.

What is little known about that is the US intel on the Iraqi WoMD in 2003 was uncertain and they rated themselves as such. What gets pushed is the political spin brought on by the Bush administration, including Rumsfeld and Cheney. They saw what they wanted to see, and sold the world on that viewpoint.

Little evidence for Iraq WMDs ahead of 2003 war: U.S. declassified report

Quote

Six months ahead of the 2003 invasion of Iraq, the United States had little hard evidence and relied heavily on analytic assumptions and judgment in assessing what it knew about Iraq's Weapons of Mass Destruction Programs, according to declassified U.S. intellilgence report.

Personally I never viewed the action as about WMDs; it was always about oil and terrorism.

[xzar_monty]

1 hour ago, Elerond said:

You should read how it was quite different level on Soviet army

I agree it's possible. However, I'm not going to read much about this subject anymore, and I wonder whether the horrors of, say, the Chilean or Argentinian juntas can be topped. This is a particularly grisly topic, and while you can be correct, I'm prepared to hold on to the idea that the Soviet or the Russian army isn't that much worse than what other groups or armies have previously done in other locations. Some of this stuff is old, such as the "trentuno reale" of the Renaissance era, and some of this stuff is even older than that.

Again, please don't think that I have any sympathy whatsoever for Russia.

[kanisatha]

1 hour ago, Elerond said:

At least Kh-15, Kh-55 and Kh-59 are lighter Soviet/Russian air to surface missiles that have tactical nuclear warhead version

Correct. Su-24 was always a tactical bomber capable of nuclear strike. In this case, however, looking at the actaul photos from the AP, it looks like they were armed with nuclear gravity bombs and not missiles (very hard to make out).

[xzar_monty]

1 minute ago, kanisatha said:

Correct. Su-24 was always a tactical bomber capable of nuclear strike. In this case, however, looking at the actaul photos from the AP, it looks like they were armed with nuclear gravity bombs and not missiles (very hard to make out).

Why on earth would they arm those planes with nuclear bombs? I mean, trying to look at it from whichever perspective I choose, I can only see madness in it.

[kanisatha]

9 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

Why on earth would they arm those planes with nuclear bombs? I mean, trying to look at it from whichever perspective I choose, I can only see madness in it.

Clearly a message to Sweden about even flirting with the idea of joining NATO. They of course knew the Flygvapnet would intercept.

Edited March 31, 2022 by kanisatha

[xzar_monty]

5 minutes ago, kanisatha said:

Clearly a message to Sweden about even flirting with the idea of joining NATO.

Agreed. However, I still think it's both madness and criminal on at least two levels.

1) A message like that is absolute overkill. The planes on their own were a clear enough message.

2) Sweden is a sovereign country. What it does is none of Russia's business.

 

And here, of course, we come to the crux of the matter. I believe both of my points are perfectly valid and would be agreed with by a country that behaves with at least a modicum of common sense. Russia is not that kind of country. Russia used to be a kleptocracy, but it is quickly becoming something altogether more alarming. Just look at they way they are actively legislating for the reduction of intellectual and educational standards, and you're starting to see a new North Korea being born.

Edited March 31, 2022 by xzar_monty

[Malcador]

Wonder what the rest of their flight path was, maybe they intimidated Sweden by chance

Would have thought this would have provoked more immediate attention, though.

Edited March 31, 2022 by Malcador

[kanisatha]

2 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

Agreed. However, I still think it's both madness and criminal on at least two levels.

1) A message like that is absolute overkill. The planes on their own were a clear enough message.

2) Sweden is a sovereign country. What it does is none of Russia's business.

 

And here, of course, we come to the crux of the matter. I believe both of my points are perfectly valid and would be agreed with by a country that behaves with at least a modicum of common sense. Russia is not that kind of country. Russia used to be a kleptocracy, but it is quickly becoming something altogether more alarming. Just look at they way they are actively legislating for the reduction of intellectual and educational standards, and you're starting to see a new North Korea being born.

Yup. And in this case they even actually crossed into Swedish airspace for a couple of minutes before being intercepted the Gripens. Initially the Swedes were very emphatic that the aircraft had deliberately crossed into their airspace, but now the government is walking that back, saying it's possible they "strayed."

Also, for several months now there have been rumors from the Elmendorf wing F-22 pilots, posting anonymously, that Tu-22M bombers they've been intercepting off of Alaska have been carrying live nuclear missiles. The Air Force has "no comment."

[Chilloutman]

Putin is walking very fine line with this. Anyone else poking Russia like they do would be outrage from their side. Not that long they done that to Turkey and their plane didn't returned. I feel like they soon will get another lesson.

[kanisatha]

11 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

And here, of course, we come to the crux of the matter. I believe both of my points are perfectly valid and would be agreed with by a country that behaves with at least a modicum of common sense. Russia is not that kind of country. Russia used to be a kleptocracy, but it is quickly becoming something altogether more alarming. Just look at they way they are actively legislating for the reduction of intellectual and educational standards, and you're starting to see a new North Korea being born.

This is a very good point. Even in China, there are rules that the government has to follow, and even changing the rules has to be done through a well-established process involving many people beyond just the president.

By contrast in Russia today, Putin is essentially ruling by fiat. Anything and everything can be changed, and changed in any way no matter how crazy or illogical, just by Putin alone deciding to change it. The Duma is completely a rubber stamp. So yeah similar to North Korea; also somewhat similar to Qaddafi's regime in Libya (which political science scholars never were able to classify as belonging to any category of regime type because it was essentially one man, who was not a king, arbitrarily deciding everything with no rules or processes).

[Darkpriest]

So it happened. 

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/putin-signs-decree-ordering-gas-exports-be-halted-if-buyers-dont-pay-rubles

April's Fools tomorrow... Lets see what happens over weekend. 

[Darkpriest]

and a few Lavor-leaning op-eds co read critically. 

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/india-mulls-russian-offer-swift-alternative-ruble-payments-lavrov-visits

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/russia-china-foreign-ministers-meet-wednesday-discuss-fair-world-order

[Darkpriest]

Seems some media are spinning too much of a narrative around concsription. 

That said, a lot of these conscripts will probably go to bases from which proper soldiers will be relocated to UA

[xzar_monty]

30 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Wonder what the rest of their flight path was, maybe they intimidated Sweden by chance

Would have thought this would have provoked more immediate attention, though.

In case you don't know btw (being from Canada), breach of airspace is something that the Soviet Union also used to do to its neighbours. In Europe at least, this is quite widely known, and perhaps you know it, too. But just in case.

[xzar_monty]

4 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

Seems some media are spinning too much of a narrative around concsription. 

That said, a lot of these conscripts will probably go to bases from which proper soldiers will be relocated to UA

But then, "the Russian President is required by law" no longer means anything, would you agree?

[xzar_monty]

22 minutes ago, kanisatha said:

By contrast in Russia today, Putin is essentially ruling by fiat. Anything and everything can be changed, and changed in any way no matter how crazy or illogical, just by Putin alone deciding to change it. The Duma is completely a rubber stamp. So yeah similar to North Korea; also somewhat similar to Qaddafi's regime in Libya (which political science scholars never were able to classify as belonging to any category of regime type because it was essentially one man, who was not a king, arbitrarily deciding everything with no rules or processes).

My knowledge of political science is woefully inadequate, but I have recently read (from various sources) that the current Russia is much more autocratic than the Soviet Union used to be. The Soviet Union had the politburo, whereas in Russia it is as you say, it's just Putin.

[Darkpriest]

4 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

But then, "the Russian President is required by law" no longer means anything, would you agree?

Not sure what do you mean by that? He signs a decree each year around this date, as such is the law apparently. 

[Malcador]

12 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

In case you don't know btw (being from Canada), breach of airspace is something that the Soviet Union also used to do to its neighbours. In Europe at least, this is quite widely known, and perhaps you know it, too. But just in case.

Yep, am aware they do it, was just a joke on the brevity of the incursion, no need to get snarky.