I see Ukraine is asking to be made a member of the EU, I dont think thats a reasonable solution because to join you need to achieve certain criteria? Then the EU should allow Serbia to join with no prerequisite's

But what do you guys in the EU think, should Ukraine be allowed to automatically join because of the Russian invasion? 

2 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

I see Ukraine is asking to be made a member of the EU, I dont think thats a reasonable solution because to join you need to achieve certain criteria? Then the EU should allow Serbia to join with no prerequisite's

But what do you guys in the EU think, should Ukraine be allowed to automatically join because of the Russian invasion? 

Well that's up to the EU, but it seems reasonable to make them a candidate if they meet the criteria. They are a major grain producer and have a skilled and educated populace.

6 minutes ago, rjshae said:

They are a major grain producer and have a skilled and educated populace.

As if that was ever a requirement for joining the EU.

Belarus joining the invasion and war seems to me to be yet another lame attempt by Putin to justify the war. Seeing as how the West has always had a coalition in its military operations in the post-Cold War era, and saying coalition forces did X or Y has a better resonance to it than saying US forces, I bet the addition of a purely token Belarus component is so the Russians can now start using the word "coalition" to describe their actions in Ukraine. It's not Russia waging a war; it's an international coalition conducting a special operation. 😉

Soon there will coalition contingents from Syria, Iran, and Venezuela, I'm sure.

I am for making them candidate, not full member until they clear up their laws

4 hours ago, pmp10 said:

Belorussians are on the move

 

Okay, but you'd still at least want radar for command and control and I assume that is largely gone now.
Then again, maybe NATO would provide that as part of intelligence.

Ukraine has at least medium range 80K6M mobile radars and probably ways to organize mobile command and control

So losing fixed radars and centers should not make their air force inoperable. 

5 hours ago, Darkpriest said:

Imagine a Pan-Asian union using Chinese CIPS in 5-10years, and payments for Oil, Gas and Gold in CIPS be Yuan denominated. What do you think will happen?

Exactly who would constitute this union? China, plus North Korea and Myanmar? And Russia of course.

I don't see too many countries, Asian or otherwise, joining CIPS. And even the ones that do join will still also hold on to their SWIFT access.

4 minutes ago, Chilloutman said:

I am for making them candidate, not full member until they clear up their laws

Which laws are an issue ?

1 minute ago, Malcador said:

Which laws are an issue ?

Its hard for me to explain as english is not my first language and I am not too experienced in rule of the law lingo but basically there are too many oligarchs and lobby groups attached to state apparatus. Anti corruption laws are basically biggest issue as well probably as some court and judge appointment laws

12 minutes ago, kanisatha said:

Belarus joining the invasion and war seems to me to be yet another lame attempt by Putin to justify the war. Seeing as how the West has always had a coalition in its military operations in the post-Cold War era, and saying coalition forces did X or Y has a better resonance to it than saying US forces, I bet the addition of a purely token Belarus component is so the Russians can now start using the word "coalition" to describe their actions in Ukraine. It's not Russia waging a war; it's an international coalition conducting a special operation. 😉

Soon there will coalition contingents from Syria, Iran, and Venezuela, I'm sure.

, Im sorry but its makes me laugh the countries who support Russia. Its like  the brochure of other autocratic states and failed socialist experiments, Iran being the exception

Great "friends" to have, I can imagine what they chat about around the  camp fire

" So what did you guys do today" 

" Oh you know, the normal. Killed and tortured  a few thousand annoying protestors demanding human rights " 

" I get you, nothing more annoying than citizens wanting the right to a free and fair election " 

" Yeah and now  they want a free media and the right to criticize government publicly " 

" I just cant believe citizens can be so unreasonable ....so selfish these people who want Democracy " 

Edited March 1, 20223 yr by BruceVC

4 minutes ago, kanisatha said:

Exactly who would constitute this union? China, plus North Korea and Myanmar? And Russia of course.

I don't see too many countries, Asian or otherwise, joining CIPS. And even the ones that do join will still also hold on to their SWIFT access.

Wel, the whole belt road set of countries, and thoae who still want to buy stuff from Russia. 

You have Pakistan, Iran, All the Post soviet republics and land locked countries there, Afghanistan, Syria, most likely Turkey as well, Iraq, India is also interested in trading with Russia. 

China can also use it for inclusion of some of African states, where they have significant leverage. 

I have no idea how the countries in the south east Asia work, but I guess they would be interested in using that as well. 

South American countries like Venezuela, Brasil can jump on board as well, etc. 

 

4 minutes ago, Chilloutman said:

Its hard for me to explain as english is not my first language and I am not too experienced in rule of the law lingo but basically there are too many oligarchs and lobby groups attached to state apparatus. Anti corruption laws are basically biggest issue as well probably as some court and judge appointment laws

Thats what I understand is the issue as well, they have their own oligarchs who have too much public sector influence so its about corruption laws that are strict in the EU 

22 minutes ago, rjshae said:

Well that's up to the EU, but it seems reasonable to make them a candidate if they meet the criteria. They are a major grain producer and have a skilled and educated populace.

The thing is they didnt meet the criteria yet and its about corruption laws or something similar

Because the reason the EU is the worlds most successful trading block is because the laws and governance are strict and enforced. Countries cant  just join like in the AU because they on the same continent. If you dont have certain common values and agreed on economic  rules and governance then these unions fail and become talk shops. So thats why the EU has non-negotiable expectations to join 

25 minutes ago, Chilloutman said:

Its hard for me to explain as english is not my first language and I am not too experienced in rule of the law lingo but basically there are too many oligarchs and lobby groups attached to state apparatus. Anti corruption laws are basically biggest issue as well probably as some court and judge appointment laws

Ah ok. Seems reasonable to make them wait a bit then over that.

Also I am unsure how beneficial it would actually be for Ukraine economy if they get into EU. I mean there are already millions of them working in 'west' on visas. Flood of people rushing to west for better wages can collapse whole Ukraine economy after war when they will need every hand to recover.No matter which side will win

If they stop buying things in Ukraine, but that's not usually the case.  Polish contractors have brought a lot of buying power home as a forinstance.  

35 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Ah ok. Seems reasonable to make them wait a bit then over that.

Bulgaria didn't even translate the Chapter requirements in to Bulgarian before being admitted in to the EU. They just winked at the Russian economic union and the EU tripped over themselves to let them join. Even today Bulgaria doesn't have it's internal laws and courts aligned with the EU.

It's all a matter of want and the EU stopped wanting after Bulgaria and Croatia.

Meanwhile Oil at 107 intraday, and if it will come anywhere close to 120 prior to any sanctions on Russian Oil, you will see a lot of pain on the Western economies. Energy and food inflation will push govs to settle with Russians or they will face unrest at home. 

10 hours ago, pmp10 said:

Some 70 combat aircrafts are to be transferred to Ukraine.

And backtracked already.

I'm starting to wonder if people are trying to push things by leaking opinions of some officials.

It depends, like for example with 120 dollar per barrel, our domestic biofuel will be in competitive price and will eventually boost our economy.

Oil and Natural gas are bad for European domestic energy production, but usually it is seen too expensive to get rid of them, but rising prices will force change, which is change which oil producers would like to avoid.

1 minute ago, pmp10 said:

And backtracked already.

I'm starting to wonder if people are trying to push things by leaking opinions of some officials.

They need to de-escalate, otherwise Russian doctrine will guide into a direction, that if NATO is already providing equipment and manpower, and now provides advanced machinery to fight, it is not much different than an act of war, especially in the full economic ties cut-off. Russians will have nothing to lose via escalation and at least they will be able to bring pain back. 

Diplomacy is about striking a balance, even if uneasy, because if the other side is faced with being 'cancelled', what is a path back to 'normality' ? 

 

Well I think we are already way over the line to getting 'back to normal' with Russia anytime soon anyway

17 minutes ago, Elerond said:

It depends, like for example with 120 dollar per barrel, our domestic biofuel will be in competitive price and will eventually boost our economy.

Oil and Natural gas are bad for European domestic energy production, but usually it is seen too expensive to get rid of them, but rising prices will force change, which is change which oil producers would like to avoid.

Well, does it become sustainable long term? Base energy costs are already extremly high, what would be the cost pressure on the society? 

Sure, producers might get it running at that price, but economy might not be able to withstand it, especially not the lower end of the income range within the societies. 

Edited March 1, 20223 yr by Darkpriest

22 minutes ago, pmp10 said:

And backtracked already.

I'm starting to wonder if people are trying to push things by leaking opinions of some officials.

Well that's a kick in the pants for Ukrainian morale.

7 minutes ago, Chilloutman said:

Well I think we are already way over the line to getting 'back to normal' with Russia anytime soon anyway

Yeah, this is what worries me a bit. If there is no real path to normalization, then Putin's game is hell or high water.