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Housing Market


Hurlsnot

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I have been pretty shocked at how the housing market has continued to get further and further out of reach where I live. I can't actually save enough to keep up with it, so I have resigned myself to the idea we will buy out of the area when we are close to retirement. But this was an interesting watch and reinforcement of what I see happening:

 

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5 minutes ago, Hurlsnot said:

I can't actually save enough to keep up with it

This has been true for a long long time, really, for this area.  Back in the early 90's, most people I knew who were I and hubby's age back then were able to purchase a (single-family) house here because of at least some help from parents/family, not because they saved entirely on their own. 

Of course, it's way way worse now.  Generous parents probably wouldn't be enough, you'd need a rich grandparent. Haha.

And yeah...the investment buying (vs those buying because they want to actually LIVE in it) is terrible.

“Things are as they are. Looking out into the universe at night, we make no comparisons between right and wrong stars, nor between well and badly arranged constellations.” – Alan Watts
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Housing prices will reach the point where no one can buy. Then, coupled with interest rate hikes, will cause the market to collapse. The same cycle that has been going on for years. You should sign up with the Clerk of the County Court in your home and surrounding counties for real estate auction notices. I bought a vacant lot in Shelby County that way.

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"If you have men who will exclude any of God's creatures from the shelter of compassion and pity, you will have men who will deal likewise with their fellow men"

- St. Francis of Assisi

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2 minutes ago, Guard Dog said:

I bought a vacant lot in Shelby County that way.

I suspect a vacant (and buildable zoned) lot here, of a home-lot size (5000-6000sf to half acre) would still go for $350k to over a million, depending on the street/area.  Also, such empty lots are extremely rare in most of the Bay Area outside of some spots in the SC hills or closer to the ocean, or way east in the more valley Valley, which would entail long and annoying commutes for Hurlshot most likely.

And then you'd have to probably spend $400k-600k+ building something on it.  I suppose one of those modular/prefab houses might save some $$.

“Things are as they are. Looking out into the universe at night, we make no comparisons between right and wrong stars, nor between well and badly arranged constellations.” – Alan Watts
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after watching the video we feel moderate affronted by being described as a private equity goon... and we went to a public university and not harvard, so there.

more serious, am daily baffled by recognition that 2021 feels so much like 2006-2007, and how in spite o' multiple experts and lay people complaining that we collective learned nothing from 2008+, no serious effort is being made to prevent the next crisis.  

our properties is paid for and if housing values halved tomorrow we would feel it not at all save for we would get properties reassessed and our taxes would decrease. is part o' the problem. last time the housing bubble burst, it led to a sharp increase in income disparity and numbers has not improved since. covid-19 made the wealth gap problems worse as it were those folks who had jobs they could not do remote were the ones suffering the most. we personal may shrug this impending crisis stuff off but it is literal destroying families... again.  how can this be happening again, particular so soon after last time?

oh well, would be tough to take smaug serious if he lamented the suffering proletariat as he stretched languid 'pon an enormous pile o' treasure. 

HA! Good Fun!

 

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"If there be time to expose through discussion the falsehood and fallacies, to avert the evil by the processes of education, the remedy to be applied is more speech, not enforced silence."Justice Louis Brandeis, Concurring, Whitney v. California, 274 U.S. 357 (1927)

"Im indifferent to almost any murder as long as it doesn't affect me or mine."--Gfted1 (September 30, 2019)

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38 minutes ago, ShadySands said:

I actually just bought and sold a vacant lot in the middle of nowhere. I dabble in real estate investment but lately it's been absolutely crazy.

 

24 minutes ago, ComradeYellow said:

Inflation, housing bubbles, culture mass shooters, massive defense spending.

It's like a perfect storm...

I'm telling y'all, I'm going to buy some raw land somewhere in the boonies and dig myself an underground, concrete, hobbit-hole and that's what I'll die in. My tomb. No one will even know my corpse is there unless a tax man comes calling.

 

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“Things are as they are. Looking out into the universe at night, we make no comparisons between right and wrong stars, nor between well and badly arranged constellations.” – Alan Watts
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The land of the free isn't alone, housing prices in Gothenburg has risen quite a bit the past year, 15.9%

https://www.maklarstatistik.se/omrade/riket/vastra-gotalands-lan/goteborg/#/villor/arshistorik-prisutveckling

And about 30% in my home town

https://www.maklarstatistik.se/omrade/riket/vastra-gotalands-lan/alingsas/#/villor/arshistorik-prisutveckling

Edited by Azdeus

Civilization, in fact, grows more and more maudlin and hysterical; especially under democracy it tends to degenerate into a mere combat of crazes; the whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, most of them imaginary. - H.L. Mencken

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Isn't this happening everywhere? 10 years ago I paid ~450€ for 60m². Now I pay 550€ for 37m² (was forced to move some years ago). And I'm not even living in the most expensive area around here. It gets worse if you get into Berlin. The government is trying to mitigate this with rent-limits, so the prices can't creep even higher, but this isn't solving the issue - it just moves the price hikes to the outside areas of these rent-limit zones.

"only when you no-life you can exist forever, because what does not live cannot die."

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Just speaking for Australia, but the situation is similar here. Almost impossible for young people who don't have millionaire parents to buy their own home. Simply too many investors buying up properties and putting the squeeze on people rent wise, making sure nobody else can afford save up to buy a property (while the property owners are able to use the profits to buy up even more homes).

Would be nice if they put a limit on how many actual homes any one person can own besides whatever they actually live in (not thinking about commercial property, office buildings etc. but actual homes).

I know, some buildings are made with rental in mind, like townhouses, high rises, council owned housing etc., but the latter are not really attractive for investors, because the tenants often defaults on rent. Just thinking about old, existing houses that gets snatched up and added to a portfolio besides the 9 existing houses in said portfolio.

“He who joyfully marches to music in rank and file has already earned my contempt. He has been given a large brain by mistake, since for him the spinal cord would surely suffice.” - Albert Einstein

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Someone once advised me a long time ago “invest in real estate. They’re not making any more of it”

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"If you have men who will exclude any of God's creatures from the shelter of compassion and pity, you will have men who will deal likewise with their fellow men"

- St. Francis of Assisi

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4 minutes ago, Gfted1 said:

A different coastline is on the way. A wise investor should buy up properties a little inland and then in a couple decades they will be able to leave their descendants beachfront property.

Follow me for more tips.

And of course if you’re impatient you can always steal a nuclear missile and aim at the San Andreas Fault. As long as no pesky superhero stop you it’s a brilliant plan

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"If you have men who will exclude any of God's creatures from the shelter of compassion and pity, you will have men who will deal likewise with their fellow men"

- St. Francis of Assisi

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No need for nuclear missiles or scawy Russian tsunami torpedoes, global warming is past the "tipping point".

But I realize that Im the dinosaur in the room and I think things have changed in the real estate market. Back in my day, my first home was what was coined a "starter home". It was modest, a simple 3BR / 2Bath ranch style, in a quiet suburb of FL. I sure as hell didnt have the full down payment so I had to get PMI. Anywho, fast forward a few years, and property appreciates as property do, and when I sold it I made a nice profit, which I was able to apply to a nicer house. Rinse and repeat. But maybe such opportunities no longer exist or are too far away from their desired location?

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40 minutes ago, Gfted1 said:

No need for nuclear missiles or scawy Russian tsunami torpedoes, global warming is past the "tipping point".

But I realize that Im the dinosaur in the room and I think things have changed in the real estate market. Back in my day, my first home was what was coined a "starter home". It was modest, a simple 3BR / 2Bath ranch style, in a quiet suburb of FL. I sure as hell didnt have the full down payment so I had to get PMI. Anywho, fast forward a few years, and property appreciates as property do, and when I sold it I made a nice profit, which I was able to apply to a nicer house. Rinse and repeat. But maybe such opportunities no longer exist or are too far away from their desired location?

You should have applied for a VA loan. You would not have needed PMI for the down payment. In fact I believe in most instances a down payment is minimal or not required.

"If you have men who will exclude any of God's creatures from the shelter of compassion and pity, you will have men who will deal likewise with their fellow men"

- St. Francis of Assisi

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14 minutes ago, ShadySands said:

It really depends on where you're at. In my area there is a massive shortage of starter homes. Almost nobody is building new ones and existing ones often get replaced or upgraded with something that will bring in more money. 

Its interesting to compare the "new housing starts" from 1968-2021. In my case, the early-mid 90's seems worse or equivalent to today, but Im sure youre right about the geographic location being a big factor.  

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I was originally planning to buy a house in the North Carolina/Tennessee mountains (likely the TN side) this fall. Those plans aren't officially off, but I may postpone things for a while if the market continues to be crazy. Luckily, there's no real urgency on my part, I can continue to rent the place I'm at while I wait either for the bubble to burst or a great deal to come along. I would like to buy a house within the next year or two, but if I have to wait longer, so be it.

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