Coronavirus Goes Fourth

[Amentep]

Old thread

[BruceVC]

Guys I have a serious question that I would like feedback on

I am suppose to fly to my hometown, Durban, on Sunday for our yearly Xmas family gathering at our beach cottage as we normally do

The problem is we are seeing  our second wave in SA and the virus increase is huge in coastal provinces where I am going to and where I live. I am now seriously considering cancelling my flight to DBN so  there is no risk from my side by unintentionally spreading the virus to numerous older family relatives who are at high risk from the virus and will be there at our Xmas gathering

I am not saying I have the virus but I risk exposure by flying to DBN....so what would you do if you were me? Would you cancel your Xmas holiday plans because of the reality of the pandemic spread in SA?

 

Edited December 16, 2020 by BruceVC

[Pidesco]

3 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

Guys I have a serious question that I would like feedback on

I am suppose to fly to my hometown, Durban, on Sunday for our yearly Xmas family gathering at our beach cottage as we normally do

The problem is we are seeing  our second wave in SA and the virus increase is huge in coastal provinces where I am going to and where I live. I am now seriously considering cancelling my flight to DBN so  there is no risk from my side by unintentionally spreading the virus to numerous older family relatives who are at high risk from the virus and will be there at our Xmas gathering

I am not saying I have the virus but I risk exposure by flying to DBN....so what would you do if you were me? Would you cancel your Xmas holiday plans because of the reality of the pandemic spread in SA?

 

Cancel the plans, of course.

[BruceVC]

18 hours ago, Pidesco said:

Cancel the plans, of course.

I have made the very difficult but prudent decision to cancel my Xmas trip to see family and celebrate the best time of the year for me 

I am doing this to protect older family members  from any unintentional exposure to the virus. I feel its the right thing to do but its going to be a lonely and miserable Xmas for me by myself in Cpt 

Anyway I cannot focus on the negative of my decision as Im doing this to protect people I love and its not about me 

[Gromnir]

so the fed is telling states to expect 40% less while pfizer claims they got doses piling up in warehouses? regardless, sounds as if desantis were talking out his kiester when he claimed production shortfalls were the reason for allotment reductions.

HA! Good Fun!

 

[Gorth]

Maybe it was the Saudis price for improving relations with Israel. Just need a big enough ship (with a freezer) to ship it

 

 

[Gorgon]

Coworker tested positive for Covid. 10 day vacation baby. Or I'm about to get sick, in which case, bummer.

[Pidesco]

You weren't working from home already?

 

Also do you still work for Weyland Yutani?

[Gorgon]

It's been just the grunts and the bigwigs at the office, we need to fiddle with hardware and they need the fancy videocall meeting rooms - no one trusts their laptop. Everyone else is home. Saw the guy out with Covid for like half a second as he handed me a package. Did I remember to use hand sanitizer and all that. Can't remember. It was Monday, quick testing is probably still useless. 

 

 

 

 

[Gromnir]

‘I am responsible’: Warp Speed chief accepts blame for reduced vaccine doses but creates new confusion about quality control steps

But he (gen. perna) was not clear about the scope of quality assurance, or about why it would delay the release of doses, saying only that the Food and Drug Administration “does a fantastic job doing that.”

The FDA does not review batches of vaccine before their distribution, an agency spokesperson said Saturday in response to requests to explain the process. Under the terms of the agency’s authorization for the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, the company is required to submit “certificates of analysis for each drug product lot at least 48 hours before vaccine distribution.” But the FDA does not review the information before the product is shipped.

FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn confirmed that later in a tweet, saying, “they can distribute without waiting for FDA’s ok.”

Asked about the steps involved in clearing doses for release, Perna said he didn’t know “the exact details on that.” He did stress that there had been “zero problems” with Pfizer’s product.

...

Asked to explain in simpler terms what happens to make doses releasable, he said, “I am not going to spend any more time talking about the details between fill-finish and releasable.”

keep in mind that with a rollout this large, it were inevitable there would be minor and major hiccups. however, the explanation for the shortfalls in deployable vaccines is wanting. all those persons unreasonable suspicious o' the vaccine is gonna have legit cause to be suspicious if the government ain't complete transparent. 

HA! Good Fun!

[BruceVC]

On 12/18/2020 at 5:32 PM, Gorgon said:

It's been just the grunts and the bigwigs at the office, we need to fiddle with hardware and they need the fancy videocall meeting rooms - no one trusts their laptop. Everyone else is home. Saw the guy out with Covid for like half a second as he handed me a package. Did I remember to use hand sanitizer and all that. Can't remember. It was Monday, quick testing is probably still useless. 

 

 

 

 

Just wait for the quarantine period for 10 days, I am confident you will be fine either way. But you all should take a test before you go back to work on the last day of quarantine because you  may have the virus but you only started manifesting symptoms on day 10 of the quarantine and you are asymptomatic which is not uncommon. And now you go back to work and still spread the virus in an asymptomatic way

So you all must take a confirmation test before going back to work or the quarantine period is meaningless 

[BruceVC]

Geez the Sky News presenters can  be harsh to the UK current politicians around "why are you  cancelling Xmas travel  now " .. 

Of course having your Xmas cancelled I week before Xmas is terrible for anyone, like me , who has made Xmas plans but there is a new virus strain that we are also seeing in SA and  the virus becomes 70 % more transmissible

With the rise of the virus in the UK and this new strain you can only do 1 thing as a government, sadly you cancel Xmas travel  

[Zoraptor]

The new UK strain of the virus has been found in Italy, so it's now confirmed as being spread internationally.

[Gorth]

They should have done with the new UK strain what they did with the new "mink" strain in Denmark, cull the entire population

Just kidding of course, but there are some interesting questions around the new strain. Not just does it seem a lot more contagious, but will it be affected by the vaccines that has currently been developed?

Or are we back to square one with a virus that beat the scientist by six months?

 

[Zoraptor]

Mutation is on the spike protein, which is the target of all (?) the vaccines. It being a functional mutation makes it more likely the shape of the protein has changed significantly which could reduce vaccine effect. OTOH we are being assured it won't, and they should be able to do decent modelling of what effect the mutation has on 3d structures.

Turns out that it isn't actually a UK mutation either, the first known detection of it was Brazil in in the first half of the year, and it has popped up elsewhere (including Australia) prior to the UK.

[rjshae]

On 12/20/2020 at 11:12 AM, Zoraptor said:

The new UK strain of the virus has been found in Italy, so it's now confirmed as being spread internationally.

Considering how the original strain became widely traveled before it was even noticed, I don't doubt that the new strain is probably already in multiple countries. One wonders how useful shutting down flights from England is at this point. We're basically all one big petri dish.

[BruceVC]

10 minutes ago, rjshae said:

Considering how the original strain became widely traveled before it was even noticed, I don't doubt that the new strain is probably already in multiple countries. One wonders how useful shutting down flights from England is at this point. We're basically all one big petri dish.

I agree, the new strain has been known about since September. Its a bit late now to ban flights from places like the UK and SA

 

[Zoraptor]

39 minutes ago, rjshae said:

Considering how the original strain became widely traveled before it was even noticed, I don't doubt that the new strain is probably already in multiple countries. One wonders how useful shutting down flights from England is at this point. We're basically all one big petri dish.

Yeah, I suspect the Brits are a victim of doing a lot of viral sequencing such that they've been able to detect why the spread has been more severe. It's certainly not just the SE of England that has had a far worse time of it in the 2nd wave than the 1st, and amelioration efforts that worked previous are a lot less effective in multiple places too.

As a confirmed cynic I'd also suspect the state of the UK/ EU Brexit negotiations is a factor too, with France wanting to illustrate what a no deal brexit might look like.

[rjshae]

[BruceVC]

Biden is saying the worst days for the USA  around the virus are still ahead ...not at all behind but its going to be worse until it gets better

I am not sure I agree with that sentiment, I am well aware of the virus spread and loss of lives  in the USA but I would say its going to be equally bad as the worst now, not worse, before its get better?

 

 

Edited December 23, 2020 by BruceVC

[Gromnir]

1 hour ago, BruceVC said:

Biden is saying the worst days for the USA  around the virus are still ahead ...not at all behind but its going to be worse until it gets better

I am not sure I agree with that sentiment, I am well aware of the virus spread and loss of lives  in the USA but I would say its going to be equally bad as the worst now, not worse, before its get better?

 

 

am predicting this post does not age well... and won't take too long to be proven as such.

hospitals is current at icu thresholds in numerous states, and past such thresholds in numerous locations. christmas and new years is gonna create new mini-surges, but we won't see the damage from such for a couple weeks following those dates. 

winter is finally here... literal. first day o' winter were the 21st o' december, and winter were always predicted to be difficult, regardless o' vaccine distribution.

am thinking it makes a whole lotta sense to assume january is gonna be terrible, and if such doesn't end up being the case, then we can all indulge a sigh o' relief. plan as if january is gonna be brutal, and will be brutal 'cause o' what is happening today. 

...

is good to listen to science, but this is one situation where listen to social scientists might be beneficial and am speaking o' historians specific. the methods we got to combat the virus has been same since december o' last year... and is in fact same as since middle age plagues. social distancing and mask wearing were known to be efficacious in 1918 and during many prior pandemics. widespread recognition o' hygiene as a defense 'gainst disease were a bit more 20th century, by we have functional same tools as did past generations.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-19/coronavirus-lessons-from-great-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic

the plague during shakespeare's era were not an airborne virus, but folks knew 'bout social distancing. large gatherings were rigorous and draconian prohibited during the plague years o' 1592 and 1603 forcing the shuttering o' theatres and any other places where multiples o' people congregated, with the exception of churches, 'cause obviously God wouldn't allow people to become sick in church.

*groan*

same f'ing mistakes.

don't trust science? fine. look at history instead. history makes all too clear that is far better to act quick and aggressive when facing a pandemic and "we are turning the corner" thinking is likely to result in multitudes o' unnecessary corpses.

thanks to science, particularly darpa, there is an end in sight. is multiple highly effective vaccines. but for next couple months we don't need rocket science or sooper geniuses to tell us solutions. we need be more vigilant than at anytime since we collective became aware o' covid-19 on a national/international scale, but basics is same as they were in early 2019 or in 1918: social distance; wear masks; avoid travel; wash your hands.... and unless you got allergy issues or are pregnant, take the freaking vaccine. 

assume next month(s) is gonna be worse. behave as if today is the worst and covid-19 situation is only gonna get better is the kinda thinking against which we need defend.

seriously folks, in the US at least is likely only a few more months o' serious pain IF we don't collective go ultrastoopid.  significant increases in holiday travel is anything but a good start, but is not too late to get less stoopid. 

HA! Good Fun!

Edited December 23, 2020 by Gromnir

[BruceVC]

49 minutes ago, Gromnir said:

am predicting this post does not age well... and won't take too long to be proven as such.

hospitals is current at icu thresholds in numerous states, and past such thresholds in numerous locations. christmas and new years is gonna create new mini-surges, but we won't see the damage from such for a couple weeks following those dates. 

winter is finally here... literal. first day o' winter were the 21st o' december, and winter were always predicted to be difficult, regardless o' vaccine distribution.

am thinking it makes a whole lotta sense to assume january is gonna be terrible, and if such doesn't end up being the case, then we can all indulge a sigh o' relief. plan as if january is gonna be brutal, and will be brutal 'cause o' what is happening today. 

...

is good to listen to science, but this is one situation where listen to social scientists might be beneficial and am speaking o' historians specific. the methods we got to combat the virus has been same since december o' last year... and is in fact same as since middle age plagues. social distancing and mask wearing were known to be efficacious in 1918 and during many prior pandemics. widespread recognition o' hygiene as a defense 'gainst disease were a bit more 20th century, by we have functional same tools as did past generations.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-19/coronavirus-lessons-from-great-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic

the plague during shakespeare's era were not an airborne virus, but folks knew 'bout social distancing. large gatherings were rigorous and draconian prohibited during the plague years o' 1592 and 1603 forcing the shuttering o' theatres and any other places where multiples o' people congregated, with the exception of churches, 'cause obviously God wouldn't allow people to become sick in church.

*groan*

same f'ing mistakes.

don't trust science? fine. look at history instead. history makes all too clear that is far better to act quick and aggressive when facing a pandemic and "we are turning the corner" thinking is likely to result in multitudes o' unnecessary corpses.

thanks to science, particularly darpa, there is an end in sight. is multiple highly effective vaccines. but for next couple months we don't need rocket science or sooper geniuses to tell us solutions. we need be more vigilant than at anytime since we collective became aware o' covid-19 on a national/international scale, but basics is same as they were in early 2019 or in 1918: social distance; wear masks; avoid travel; wash your hands.... and unless you got allergy issues or are pregnant, take the freaking vaccine. 

assume next month(s) is gonna be worse. behave as if today is the worst and covid-19 situation is only gonna get better is the kinda thinking against which we need defend.

seriously folks, in the US at least is likely only a few more months o' serious pain IF we don't collective go ultrastoopid.  significant increases in holiday travel is anything but a good start, but is not too late to get less stoopid. 

HA! Good Fun!

I hope you wrong but it is hard to dispute the science around how the virus spreads...and we all going to see carnage in our respective countries after Xmas and NY. I predict from the 3-5 Jan onwards

In SA many people have disregarded the prudent advice to  not travel and are happily going on Xmas holiday with no real awareness of what awaits them after 1 Jan 2021 

I

[Skarpen]

"We've always been at war with Eastasia"

 

[Hurlshort]

26 minutes ago, Skarpen said:

"We've always been at war with Eastasia"

 

Is the lesson here that definitions change as more evidence becomes available?  OoooooOOOooooOOO smoking gun! 

[Gromnir]

1 hour ago, Hurlshot said:

Is the lesson here that definitions change as more evidence becomes available?  OoooooOOOooooOOO smoking gun! 

oh, they changed the definition, but is understandable 'cause more than a few idjits were false reading "vaccination" and  "previous infection," as being equivalent approaches for reaching herd immunity 'cause such appeared in same sentence authored by WHO separated by nothing save a conjunction. only an a-hole or complete yutz would take the june 2020 definition and ignore lethality, transmissibility and projected body counts when out-of-context quoting o' the WHO definition, and yet...

am suspecting previous to 2020, the november revisions woulda' been deemed unnecessary by WHO as the additions woulda' been considered self evident. who knew?

HA! Good Fun!

 

Edited December 23, 2020 by Gromnir