Politics XXXIV (Politics never changes)

[Gromnir]

4 minutes ago, 213374U said:

Sea commands are a discretionary assignment -- if he went around the CoC, it stands to reason that he'd "lose the confidence" of the Navy to be in command of the Roosevelt.

crozier hasn't necessarily lost confidence o' the navy. crozier command weren't removed by navy but by acting secretary of the navy.  legal authority o' modly is suspect, period. an acting secretary o' the navy has no more legal authority to relieve command than does jared kushner. is also noteworthy modly replaced the previous secretary o' the navy who lost his job 'cause he public questioned trump inserting himself in an issue o' military discipline. 

when crozier appealed to chain o' command to take serious his concerns 'bout covid-19 infections aboard ship, there were three positive tests o' sailors aboard the roosevelt. modly's march 24 response to crozier concerns were to remove the three sailors testing positive and then to release a presser where he observed, "this is an example of our ability to keep our ships deployed at sea, underway even with active covid-19 cases." defense secretary mark esper noted situation were under control but that the navy would be sending more testing kits to the roosevelt... soon.

crozier sends email on march 28.

as of april 3, 100 sailors had tested positive. 

april 4, with 40% of crew tested, reveals 155 infected.

were a 2-day doubling rate of known cases. add only a week to timeline and you got over 1,200 infected 'stead o' 155... and again, 155 is only 40% of the crew tested. replace a couple hundred sailors and get ship decontaminated and back to sea is a serious but not insurmountable task. if literal thousands o' crew were infected...

am suspecting years from now, if crozier hadn't written his march 28 email, we would have books and movies vilifying crozier for his gross negligence. failure o' the roosevelt captain's leadership woulda' been arguable the most catastrophic avoidable event in navy history outside a time o' war. 

am dubious 'bout the contention the navy has lost confidence in crozier. am suspecting the admiralty is looking at situation very different from modly, esper and trump... and gd. we give our command officers a great deal o' individual responsibility. we expect captains o' aircraft carriers to make independent decisions. on its face, this looks as if captain crozier made the right call when faced with the intransigence o' the chain o' command. 

again, am ok with relieve command, but we would want a serious investigation to happen. yeah, no matter what am suspecting crozier's career is over, and he knew that on march 28 when he sent his email, but am suspecting the navy, the real navy, hasn't lost confidence in him anymore than did the sailors under his command.

HA! Good Fun!

 

[Hurlshort]

I don't have anything to add, but I do want to say this is why I love our forum. This conversation about Crozier is fantastic.

[Bartimaeus]

Captain Crozier diagnosed with coronavirus.

[Gromnir]

Inside the ouster of Capt. Brett Crozier

excerpts

"A half-dozen former top Navy officials said in interviews Saturday that Modly’s intervention was a mistake that they feared would have a chilling effect on commanders and encourage them to suppress bad news that might upset political leaders.

"“I think the firing was a really bad decision, because it undermines the authority of the military commanders who are trying to take care of their troops, and significantly negatively impacts the willingness of commanders to speak truth to power,” said retired Adm. Mike Mullen, the former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, in an interview Saturday."

...

"One of the surprising aspects of the Roosevelt drama is how closely Modly became involved in matters that would normally be handled by uniformed officers. Appointed undersecretary with White House support in 2017, Modly has been an aggressive communicator since becoming acting secretary in November, following the firing of Richard Spencer, who had clashed with Trump over the treatment of Navy SEAL Edward Gallagher. Modly has sent out 18 communiques, which he calls “Vectors,” to Navy personnel that mix command advice with folksy references to sports heroes includer pitcher Bob Feller and quarterback Tom Brady."

...

"Modly told colleagues that before Crozier’s desperate memo surfaced, he had asked his chief of staff to call the Roosevelt’s captain and give him Modly’s personal cellphone number. Modly also pressed Adm. Michael Gilday, the chief of naval operations, on whether he had spoken to Crozier. Gilday apparently preferred to leave such communications to the normal chain of command.

"By Wednesday, Modly told a colleague he was thinking of relieving Crozier and that Trump “wants him fired.” He was advised by several current and former colleagues, reportedly including Gilday, that such a dismissal would be unwise, and that the matter was best left to the military."

...

"The matter came to a head Thursday. Esper, Milley and Gilday are said to have favored continuing the investigation. But Modly said he wanted to relieve Crozier immediately, and Esper said, “I’ll do what you want.” Gilday argued against the firing but was overruled by the civilians. Baker, the strike group commander, announced the firing later that day.

"One retired four-star officer said he was worried about “undue command influence” by Modly. The acting secretary had the authority to sack Crozier but in doing so undermined the uniformed officers who normally oversee such personnel decisions. “This is much bigger than the CO of the Theodore Roosevelt,” he said. “We’ve been working for years to make our commanding officers feel free to speak out about problems.” That openness might now be quashed.

"Crozier “was running up an SOS,” said Sean O’Keefe, who served as Navy secretary for George H.W. Bush. “It’s a judgment call, but you have to support the action of a deployed commander.”

"Richard Danzig, who served as Navy secretary during the Clinton administration, told me: “If Capt. Crozier carelessly or intentionally jumped abruptly outside of military channels, then the Navy had good cause for removing him. But I doubt it was good judgment to rush to do it at this time.”"

HA! Good Fun!

[Guard Dog]

I doubt Crozier's career is over. Unless he want's it to be. But the Roosevelt will likely be his last combat command. And he will never receive a flag promotion. He will likely end up as a base commander at Saratoga Springs, or NAS New Orleans, or down the road from me at Millington. Or if they are really mad at him Diego Garcia. That's what the military does with guys they'd rather not have around. Send you to a s--t detail. I knew one guy who f----d up so bad he ruined a deployment. Never touched the radar again. He spent his last 18 month of service on loan to barracks support. 

Edited April 5, 2020 by Guard Dog

[213374U]

Split the conversation about the virus to the corona thread to try and keep it, er, contained there.

[Gromnir]

‘Too Naive Or Too Stupid To Be CO’: Leaked Speech Transcript Shows Acting Navy Secretary Modly Trashing Fired Carrier Captain To Group Of Sailors

"An anonymous Navy officer familiar with the situation told the Daily Caller that commanders immediately began to try and keep Modly’s speech from getting out.

"“And the CAG (carrier air wing commander, the guy in charge of the aircraft on the carrier, an O-6) sent an email to the entire crew after the SECNAV was done saying ‘in order to publish a speech you need that person’s explicit permission and you don’t have the secant’s permission to publish what he just said, so if you recorded what he just said delete it immediately,'” the Navy officer said."

*chuckle*

am laughing at the CAG statement and not the situation.

given the send off captain crozier received from his crew, modly speech were an odd tack to take.

HA! Good Fun!

[Malcador]

https://imgur.com/gallery/wy107Ru

Audio as well

 

Not entirely sure what this was meant to achieve, really.  His bit about being bothered at Crozier mentioning they are not at war was a bit funny, though.  As was telling the TR crew they can't be "weak like victims", lol

 

 

Edited April 6, 2020 by Malcador

[Hurlshort]

https://imgur.com/r/HighQualityGifs/ZIJKeE3

[Zoraptor]

3 hours ago, Malcador said:

Not entirely sure what this was meant to achieve, really.  His bit about being bothered at Crozier mentioning they are not at war was a bit funny, though.  As was telling the TR crew they can't be "weak like victims", lol

Trying to show he's too naive or stupid to be Secretary of the Navy maybe? Wouldn't normally be a great strategy, but under Trump both seem to be required for a permanent appointment.

[Bartimaeus]

Captain of the USS Theodore Roosevelt coincidentally does what Theodore Roosevelt did during Cuban War

Synopsis written by someone else: During the war in Cuba in 1898, Theodore Roosevelt wrote a letter to the press to change public opinion to demand the Secretary of War reverse his position and allow sick soldiers with malaria and yellow fever to be returned to the United States to be quarantined. It worked. Troops with the disease were quarantined on Long Island and probably saved hundreds of lives. Roosevelt later was put up for the Medal of Honor which was then rejected by the same Secretary of War.

Edited April 6, 2020 by Bartimaeus

[Gromnir]

1 hour ago, Hurlshot said:

https://imgur.com/r/HighQualityGifs/ZIJKeE3

y'know, this is kinda misleading as it gives obama a whole lotta credit which he don't deserve. obama shut down bush 43's  pandemic response efforts early in his administration and then obama had to resurrect such stuff. the actual playbook trump and obama were using, with few changes, were created by bush 43.

National Strategy for Pandemic Preparedness

and in spite o' fact many o' his constituents were 'gainst spending money to save folks suffering from aids, bush is the guy who championed

President's Emergency Plan For AIDS Relief

dr fauci has suggested that PEPFAR alone saved many millions o' lives worldwide and were the most significant health related action by any President... evar.

nowadays even republicans who think bush weren't as bad as portrayed tend to think o' him as an embarrassment. however, when it comes to worldwide disease response, he is, and we shudder to say this, the gold standard for US Presidents.

'course the thing is, pre 9/11, bush did similar as obama and trump and actual reduced wh pandemic response resources, resources which his father were the one who started in earnest. clinton didn't do much to bolster pandemic response efforts, but he is the only President since bush 41 to not initial gut pandemic efforts of the previous administration. hurrah for bill clinton.

...

am not posting/reposting to spam or to make this another covid-19 thread but rather to drive home notion that most recent US Presidents has dropped the ball when it comes to global disease efforts. is genuine amazing how they has each needed to overcome their own myopia before moving forward, though 'course trump degree o' ambivalence and obtuseness is admitted on a scale different than his predecessors. 

recognizing the pervasive pandemics blindspot our Presidents has shared, regardless o' party and in spite o' history, is the kinda thing which adds legitimacy to  @Guard Dog otherwise lunatic fringe posts 'bout the evils and stupidity o' the government.

HA! Good Fun!

 

Edited April 6, 2020 by Gromnir

[Gorth]

Bad news for share holders.... capitalism is dying (good riddance)

(using the .in link instead of .com as the latter whines about my ad blocker)

https://www.businessinsider.in/macquarie-capitalism-is-dead-and-finance-has-become-a-poison-and-there-are-3-ways-this-era-will-end/articleshow/63068484.cms

 

Warning, lots of text:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-06/is-capitalism-dying-or-just-in-isolation-coronavirus/12123874

 

Nationalisation of a lot of stuff might be just around the corner, world wide that is.

 

[Volourn]

"ut you won't actually be under arrest unless you resist."

 

This always makes me laugh. 

 

"Am I under arrest, officer?"

"No."

"Ok, I am gonna go."

 

"If you (try to) leave I'll arrest you for resisting arrest."

 

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

[BruceVC]

1 hour ago, Gorth said:

Bad news for share holders.... capitalism is dying (good riddance)

(using the .in link instead of .com as the latter whines about my ad blocker)

https://www.businessinsider.in/macquarie-capitalism-is-dead-and-finance-has-become-a-poison-and-there-are-3-ways-this-era-will-end/articleshow/63068484.cms

 

Warning, lots of text:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-06/is-capitalism-dying-or-just-in-isolation-coronavirus/12123874

 

Nationalisation of a lot of stuff might be just around the corner, world wide that is.

 

Gorthfuscious dont believe this for a second....the economic crisis is not about a structural problem but rather a direct consequence of the virus and the global economy shutting down

That economist should be fired immediately, he is adding to the confusion and general uncertainty and this contradicts what he should be doing. Capitalism is  not going away because its not the problem....now you need to suggest what system should replace it 

[Guard Dog]

2 hours ago, Gromnir said:

 

recognizing the pervasive pandemics blindspot our Presidents has shared, regardless o' party and in spite o' history, is the kinda thing which adds legitimacy to  @Guard Dog otherwise lunatic fringe posts 'bout the evils and stupidity o' the government.

HA! Good Fun!

 

One of many

[Guard Dog]

2 hours ago, Gorth said:

Bad news for share holders....

 

Which is just about everyone with a 401k, IRA, Pension, College Fund, or isn't burying their money in the back yard.

[Gorth]

45 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

Gorthfuscious dont believe this for a second....the economic crisis is not about a structural problem but rather a direct consequence of the virus and the global economy shutting down

In case you hadn't noticed, the economy was in a very bad shape before the virus. It just sort of "conveniently" masked the fact that the economy was heading for a free fall, the likes of the GFC.

 

https://theconversation.com/the-yield-curve-is-one-of-the-most-accurate-predictors-of-a-future-recession-and-its-flashing-warning-signs-119963

 

This is from mid 2019

 

Debt fueled economy will increase in it's volatility until society breaks apart completely. Better learn how to make fire with sticks and how to cook wilder beasts

 

edit:

45 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

That economist should be fired immediately, he is adding to the confusion and general uncertainty and this contradicts what he should be doing. Capitalism is  not going away because its not the problem....now you need to suggest what system should replace it 

You want to fire people for doing their job? You're as bad as Trump!

 

[Guard Dog]

you are not wrong there. The banking repo market has been in trouble for some time. The problem with the modern day fascination with Keynes is the failure to understand the "trap" part of a liquidity trap. It does not good to "give" banks money to stabilize them if they treat that money as loanable funds. 

Bah, don't even get me started. I have gotten out of the stock market altogether. I have a new investment strategy that I am very happy with. I've been buying land zoned for agricultural use and then leasing it to local agri-business. You won't get rich but unlike residential rentals it covers it's own costs, provides a modest income, and has appreciation value because towns and cities are only going to get bigger. This is the way @Gromnir. Residential is no damn good for anybody.

[213374U]

1 hour ago, Volourn said:

"If you (try to) leave I'll arrest you for resisting arrest."

Not exactly. You will be arrested for (repeatedly) ignoring a lawful order, which amounts to resisting authority. The order in question is to accompany them to the station for an identity check, but you will not be under arrest so they can't cuff you, book you, make you spend the night in a cell, or subject you to any of the other generally unpleasant consequences of an actual arrest.

If you could just ignore cops' orders and walk away, they wouldn't be the "authority" at all.

[BruceVC]

12 minutes ago, Guard Dog said:

you are not wrong there. The banking repo market has been in trouble for some time. The problem with the modern day fascination with Keynes is the failure to understand the "trap" part of a liquidity trap. It does not good to "give" banks money to stabilize them if they treat that money as loanable funds. 

Bah, don't even get me started. I have gotten out of the stock market altogether. I have a new investment strategy that I am very happy with. I've been buying land zoned for agricultural use and then leasing it to local agri-business. You won't get rich but unlike residential rentals it covers it's own costs, provides a modest income, and has appreciation value because towns and cities are only going to get bigger. This is the way @Gromnir. Residential is no damn good for anybody.

Im not sure your assessment of the USA banks is accurate at all, its important everyone understands what is working in the USA and what can sustain potentially 3-4 months of economic shutdown. After 2008 

 

GB you take time to move into gold as a potential less risk investment and that is considered a prudent strategy so whatever you may think is a good idea now please read my point below as it is relevant to why someone like you is actually what we are concerned about ...we dont want you to panic and try to move your investment because this can seriously economic recovery considering the  reality of the USA economy

You must wait enough 1 week before doing anything, you must realize people are looking at the economic data as if its the reality. Its not, this is all about the artificial shutdown  and this is due to that. Its not your normal economic contraction so any analysis on the problem needs to realize this

I was confronted by a sobering report around exactly this  happening where the real risk to USA recovery is caused by panic decisions which when people do the same can lead to real crisis 

[Gromnir]

40 minutes ago, Guard Dog said:

you are not wrong there. The banking repo market has been in trouble for some time. The problem with the modern day fascination with Keynes is the failure to understand the "trap" part of a liquidity trap. It does not good to "give" banks money to stabilize them if they treat that money as loanable funds. 

Bah, don't even get me started. I have gotten out of the stock market altogether. I have a new investment strategy that I am very happy with. I've been buying land zoned for agricultural use and then leasing it to local agri-business. You won't get rich but unlike residential rentals it covers it's own costs, provides a modest income, and has appreciation value because towns and cities are only going to get bigger. This is the way @Gromnir. Residential is no damn good for anybody.

would be nice if you were right, but am believing you are wrong. need for ag use land is gonna remain relative constant regardless o' economic tragedies. residential rental property, much like during the recent recession, is gonna be in greater demand. 

...

to be blunt, a disproportionate number o' older americans is gonna die. those who have assets to leave behind to families will be enriching their children, and statistical, those children won't be needing much help compared to the average american. converse, far too many americans is gonna be suffering severe economic hardship-- those with the least will suffer the most. not a hunch: is gonna be many families who lose businesses and homes. simple is. people lose homes and they is gonna have much difficulty buying a new home for at least a couple years. that is a situation ripe for exploitation by the haves.

is a fundamental misunderstanding that is pervasive regarding who is hurt when modern market catastrophes hit.  sure, the wealthy take the biggest loss in terms o' total dollars 'cause o' their investment is larger, but such harm affects upper middle class and middle class who is perhaps overinvested in products which do not have fixed roi. the genuine wealthy is gonna lose many millions and billions o' dollars, but they is nevertheless gonna come out the other side o' this recent cataclysm with disposable income.

we need make major changes to the economy 'cause as bad as were the recession, the covid fallout is gonna make income inequality far worse than it is today. modern day robber barons (and even folks like Gromnir if we had an urge to do so) will take advantage o' current tax breaks and fact they is particular well suited to buy property on the cheap and then rent to desperate folks. a few years pass and cheap property appreciates and the rich get richer.

HA! Good Fun!

[Agiel]

A friend of mine suggested that the by acting in the spirit of integrity, honour, and self-sacrifice Captain Crozier was very clearly acting contrary to the values and standards expected by the Commander-in-chief. Effectively mutiny.

Evergreen quote from George S. Patton, whom Trump claims to idolise, though I find it doubtful that he could name any of the formations he led during the Second World War (or even which theater he was involved in):

[Malcador]

Trump's press briefing today was pretty good, him telling the Fox reporter that he should be praising him was a high point

[Gromnir]

regarding the roosevelt, is curious (not) how there has been no update to the number o' infected crew. more than a day ago we knew how with 40% o' crew tested, there were 155 infected. we do know near 2000 crew has been quarantined on guam and ship is being sanitized, but no updated numbers for infections.

also,

Navy Secretary apologizes after calling USS Roosevelt's fired captain 'stupid'

"In a stunning reversal, Modly apologized to Crozier, his family and the Navy in a statement late Monday night. 

""Let me be clear, I do not think Capt. Brett Crozier is naive or stupid," Modly said, according to the statement released by the Navy. "I think, and always believed him to be the opposite.""

HA! Good Fun!