kanisatha

He wanted Ukraine to agree to not join NATO or any alliances (which could include the EU) and not have any military relationships (such as training or advisory) with any other country, to be completely demilitarized, to be "denazified" which I interpret as removing/sidelining anyone in Ukraine that Putin doesn't like, to give complete autonomy to the entire areas of Donetsk and Luhansk (which goes far beyond the Minsk Agreement), and to accept and never bring up again the issue of Crimea. Effectively a Ukrainian surrender to Putin that turns it into a vassel state of Russia, just like the status of Belarus right now, where eventually Ukraine (like Belarus) would be absorbed into Russia throught eh so-called "Union State" mechanism. What Ukraine and Zelenskiy have earned by proving themselves against Putin in this war is the right to be able to sit down with the Russians as equals in any negotioants about the future of Ukraine. And Lavrov seems to have now accepted this, in principle. That's the huge thing Ukraine has gained from the war. Recall that pre-war, Putin categorically refused to even talk to Zelenskiy, and insisted that any discussions about Ukraine would happen with the major Western powers and NOT Ukraine itself. What he wanted was another Munich, where just like Czechoslovakia's fate was determined by others without the Czechs themselves having any say, so too here the Ukrainians would not have any say in determining their future. That's why Biden repeatedly went out of his way to emphasize that the US would never accept any decisions being made about Ukraine without the involvement of the Ukrainians themselves.

Not quite. Putin was demanding a lot more, not only from the Ukrainians (effectively the Ukrainians being a vassel state just like Belarus) but also those demands of NATO. And then furthermore, his demands were things he wanted without anything he would be giving the Ukrainians (other than "allowing" them to exist). What I wrote about as things I could see Zelenskiy accepting were all based on Putin accepting certain other things. Those things were never there in any of the pre-war dicussions. So no, this is a fundamentally different outcome from anything pre-war, and is based on precisely the view that Putin no longer can dictate anything unilaterally vis-a-vis Ukraine.

As for what kind of compromise deal we could expect both sides to accept, I do believe Zelenskiy will accept two things Putin wants: foreswearing NATO membership, and redrawing Ukraine's borders to give the Crimea and at least parts of Donetsk and Luhansk to Russia (as that will actually make Ukraine a more politically stable and socially unified state). He may also be willing to accept some language on Ukraine not deploying certain types of arms, though that "list" (as Lavrov puts it) would have to be very short. But the real question is what will Putin be willing to give Ukraine in return? And no, simply saying "we give the Ukrainians back the rest of their country" is not going to cut it at all. The Russians will have to agree to legally binding language, affirmed by a UNSC resolution, accepting Ukraine's sovereignty and borders. They will have to pay reparations, not only for this war but also for the territory (and everything on that territory) that they take from Ukraine. And they will have to accept that other than NATO, Ukraine is free to pursue membership in any grouping it wishes. The EU today accepted Ukraine's application for membership, and even suggested that an accelerated timetable could be considered. Russia will have to accept that Ukraine will join the West, and will not be in Russia's orbit ever again.

If the quote from Lavrov that the Russian government recognizes Zelenskiy as the legitimate government of Ukraine is confirmed, that is HUGE. You cannot underestimate the importance of this, given Putin's and Lavrov's many recent statements to the contrary. It is possible this is on account of some reports that the Ukrainians recently thwarted an assassination attempt on Zelenskiy by the Chechens based on being tipped off by agents in the FSB who stated they did not want any part of "this bloody war." Putin and company may be now facing trouble at home, something I have predicted as a real possibility. If you watch that clip from Russian state TV in which Putin orders Shoigu to raise the alert of his nuclear forces, you can clearly see shock and concern on Shoigu's face. And this is Shoigu, next only to Putin and Lavrov in his ultra-nationalistic fervor. And even some of Putin's oligarch buddies have now come forward to publicly state they oppose the war. And that the war is going poorly for the Russians and that they are facing massive logistics problems (especially with fuel and food) is now becomming more and more confirmed on the basis of intercepted cellphone calls and texts being sent by Russian troops back home to their family/girlfriends. Last but by no means least, today in the UN General Assembly, an extremely harshly worded resolution condemning Russia's "unjustified" and "unprovoked" invasion, affirming Ukraine's borders and territorial integrity, and demanding an immediate ceasefire and Russian withdrawal, was approved with 141 countries voting yes and only 4 countries voting no with Russia: Belarus, Syria, North Korea, and Eritrea. Eritrea can be excused, because recent events in their neighborhood where only the Russians helped them in a very difficult situation means they're simply repaying that debt. Almost all the 35 countries that abstained nevertheless addressed the Assembly and stated very clearly they agreed with the resolution but were abstaining only for "diplomatic" reasons. Even China abstained, and subsequently released a statement affirming all UN Charter principles on sovereignty and territorial integrity, that they believe events in Ukraine are going in the "wrong direction," and fighting should stop and be replaced by diplomacy. So in truth, Russia's only "allies" in the whole world right now are Belarus, Syria, and North Korea. Even states like Iran, Cuba, Venezuela, and their CSTO allies refused to support them. Putin's isolation (in every way) is very real. Whether that works out well or badly for us all is to be determined.

The Wagner Group isn't officially part of the Russian military but it is very much an extension of the Russian government. They are a "private" contractor in name only. They were created by Putin and directly work for Putin as an instrument he can wield in foreign countries, doing dirty and often illegal work such as assassinations, while giving Putin deniability as to his/Russia's involvement. The US, French and other governments correctly consider them to be a Russian government group rather than a private entity.

On the potential for Putin using tac nukes, I am absolutely certain he will escalate to their use if pushed beyond his personal red lines. Putin views nukes as neither illogical nor immoral to use in the pursuit of his country's perceived interests. For him nukes are just another tool in his toolbox, no different than any other tool in his posession. And, the purpose for the existence of tools is to be used. That's why his warfighting doctrine explicitly lays out how Russia would ever use tac nukes. Furthermore, the use of Russian nukes on Eastern European countries, followed by hesitance on the part of the three nuclear weapons possessing NATO countries to retaliate in kind because they don't want Russian retribution on their territory, will shatter Western unity and the alliance. Definitely something the Russians would like to see, no? This is why I and some other scholars have advised that the West should find a way to give Putin an off-ramp from tit-for-tat escalation. This doesn't mean letting him off the hook for all the suffering he's needlessly unleashed upon Ukrainians. Russia must pay for that atrocity, perhaps through war reparations. But a reasonable accommodation of Russia is justified. My recommendation would be for the West to convince Zelenskiy to agree to forego NATO membership ever for Ukraine, perhaps through some constitutional mechanism similar to what exists with Finland. That way the West can still say the principle of not excluding any European country from pursuing NATO membership remains intact, but in reality Ukraine stays out of NATO. But in return Ukraine needs to get an explicit treaty from Russia guaranteeing its borders and territorial integrity and no future interference in Ukraine's internal affairs, a treaty that is also enjoined by the major Western powers and by the UN. And, Ukraine, like Finland, would be free to pursue other memberships, such as the EU, and also buy arms from whoever they want. This is what US diplomacy should be pursuing, but sadly Secretary Blinken just doesn't have the chops to go toe-to-toe with Lavrov, who is a master diplomat. Blinken is waaaay over his head in this crisis. If Biden were wise, this would be the perfect opportunity for him to prove his inaugural speech words wanting to have bipartisanship and call on the services of our own master diplomats, namely Republicans like James Baker or Condi Rice.

This whole notion of "nazis" in Ukraine and how they need to be dealt with is just plain silly. For every one nazi in Ukraine I could very easily identify ten nazis in Russia, including within Putin's circle.

This is what I was going to say as well. It is a foregone conclusion Russia will very likely eventually defeat the Ukrainians in concentional battle, take Kyiv, overthrow the government, and install their puppet government. But that is by no means the end of it. More than 100 countries in the world will still recognize the anti-Putin government (in exile) as the legitimate government, and the West will send in arms and supplies to fuel an ongoing insurgency. In fact, even if Kyiv falls, most of Ukrainian territory will likely remain out of Russian control. So taking Kyiv and overthrowing the government there, while very bitter for the Ukrainians, is far from a "win" for Russia.

Exactly who would constitute this union? China, plus North Korea and Myanmar? And Russia of course. I don't see too many countries, Asian or otherwise, joining CIPS. And even the ones that do join will still also hold on to their SWIFT access.

Belarus joining the invasion and war seems to me to be yet another lame attempt by Putin to justify the war. Seeing as how the West has always had a coalition in its military operations in the post-Cold War era, and saying coalition forces did X or Y has a better resonance to it than saying US forces, I bet the addition of a purely token Belarus component is so the Russians can now start using the word "coalition" to describe their actions in Ukraine. It's not Russia waging a war; it's an international coalition conducting a special operation. Soon there will coalition contingents from Syria, Iran, and Venezuela, I'm sure.

Yup. All those Ukrainians dying are saving NATO's sorry ass. Ukraine is paying the ultimate price so that the West can relearn these lessons from history yet again.

The transformation of Germany is the most amazing. A week ago they remained adament that they would not cancel Nord Stream 2, would not agree to kick the Russians out of SWIFT, and would not lift their ban on supplying military aid to Ukraine under any circumstances. Now, not only have they resolutely turned around on every one of those issues, today the chancellor said in the Bundestag that Germany had made a big mistake cutting back its military to where it's at now and so he was going to raise German defense spending above 2% of GDP to rebuild German military strength. Truly amazing! Welcome back to the real world, and to the transatlantic alliance, Germany!

There is a story that when Mao went to Moscow for his first meeting with Stalin, he vigorously urged Stalin to start a fullscale nuclear war with the West, arguing that because the USSR and the PRC had so many more people than the West at least some of their people would survive whereas the West would be all dead, and in this way they could take over the world. Point is, a would-be hegemon using an ally to do the dirty work of destroying an opponent, in the process destroying themselves as well, is a time-tested strategy of ambitious great powers.

There are plenty of examples of just this in history, and furthermore no one is saying it is all him alone. It is entirely possible some other crazy ultra-nationalists (the Sergei twins for example) happen to share is obsession with Ukraine. But the bottom line is that he leads a dictatorship, and by definition that means he answers to no one else.

More information is slowly coming out now about Putin's state of mind. Even some people in Russia who were/are close to Putin are now coming forward to talk about their concerns about Putin's mental state. They say he has been suffering from medically diagnosable conditions of delusion and paranoia for some months now. He literally lives in isolation in a bunker, and has stopped communicating even with people who used to be his highly trusted confidantes; that he used to actually ask for and listen to alternative pov's, but not anymore, and now just demands outcomes from subordinates no matter how unachievable; that he has sunk into an obsession with Ukraine, and believes some people are out to "get him" including to kill him. This is the stuff that worries me most, that as the war goes poorly, his economy in tatters, his image and reputation destroyed, the whole world rallying around people he has determined to be "nazis" and "criminals," he will suffer a complete mental breakdown even while having that finger on the nuclear button.

Well if they are serious, (1) they should NOT be public about it and submit their request in secret, and (2) their bid should be approved in a hyper-expedited manner.

Yes the economic damage is beginning to pile up, but as long as his oil and gas sectors remain largely untouched by sanctions he's going to be okay, given some 50% of Russia's income is from those sectors. And technically, with oil now at over $100/barrel, we are funding Russia and its war.

Yup, this is my fear too. He is the kind of person who will simply destroy everything around him rather than ever admit he may have been wrong about something.

There's more to the Russians' problems than it's a ground war in a highly populated urban setting. We can clearly see their problems include poor command and control, supporting fire, equipment serviceability, and logistics. Also poor training and morale. And most of all, a lot of their vaunted hi-tech weapons are not performing as well as expected, especially their aircraft and missiles. But their propaganda machine is the one area they've excelled at, to where both we (NATO) and they themselves ended up believing and buying into their hype. And on this score I feel the same will prove true of the Chinese in a real war.

Not to mention the Russians already took half of it once before. Coming back for what they didn't finish before is classic Russian behavior. Just like Ukraine and the other parts of the former USSR, I'm quite sure Putin believes there is no such thing as Finland or being Finnish and that land is all just an extension of Russia. I fully expect claims to Alaska will be put forward very soon (not joking).

Wouldn't surprise me. The Russians have been demanding Ukraine give up Mariupol for years now, so they can have complete control of the Sea of Azov. The poor Ukrainians there will be getting squeezed between Russian thrusts from the NE and the SW.

Happy to answer. I'm a professor with a doctorate in international relations. My academic focus is in international security and conflict, and international rivalries. My research focus has been on nuclear weapons proliferation, but in recent years has shifted to the emerging US-China rivalry. Prior to my doctorate, my bachelors and masters degrees are in aerospace engineering. Separately from my academic interests, I've long had a passion for WW2 and Cold War history and military affairs. I was in my senior year in college when the Berlin Wall came down, and at that time knew the full orders of battle of NATO and Warsaw Pact forces in Europe by heart. Used to do a ton of Cold War wargaming with my friends in college.

Since NATO has now officially activated the NATO Response Force for deployment to Poland and the Baltics, and the US and UK have both declared that NATO needs to rethink its force structure in Eastern Europe going forward, I hope the US will expand V (US) Corps (Forward) currently in Poland to a full corps with at least two heavy divisions. And then we should reactivate the 11th Armored Cavalry Regiment and stick them in the Suwalki Gap, where they can stand watch like they did in the Fulda Gap for forty years.

As for the quality of the Russian forces, it is my understanding that the Russian drive from Belarus to Kyiv was led by the 2nd (Tamanskaya) Guards Tank Brigade, fully equipped with the T-14 Armata, as part of Russia's 1st Guards Tank Army. These are Russia's most elite heavy formations. If Ukrainian light infantry, fighting without much armor of their own and no fires support or air support, are able to even slow down the advance of 1 GTA, that does represent a huge defeat for the Russians. In a battle with NATO forces, even the Polish army would defeat them in detail because they would receive massive fires and air support from the US.

Re. Kharkiv or any other major Ukrainian city, weren't we also told Kyiv was going to fall two nights ago? The presence of Russian troops or vehicles in some location does not mean the battle has been lost there. It is precisely in dense urban areas that the Ukrainians will be at their best, because they are mostly light infantry with defensive weapons, they are local, and they have the support of the population, even as Russia's advantages in armor, air support, and heavy offensive weapons will be dulled or blunted. I agree that Russia's battle plan was likely to take control of territory from Kyiv to Odesa and everything east of that line and then demand unconditional surrender. But now they realize that even if they win the conventional battle (which is eventually very likely), they are going to face a full-on and debilitating insurgency, and the Ukrainians themselves understand this and therefore will not surrender. This is what is driving Putin apoplectic and making him more and more irrational.