kanisatha

Russia facing personnel shortage in the east as they desperately try to reinforce the south facing Ukrainian counteroffensive: https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-pushes-attack-south-russia-troop-shortage-east/31963314.html

When it comes to the IE games I guess I'm an outlier here. For me it is: BG1 > BG2 > IwD2 > IwD1 > PsT I know, I know. I'm a herectic. BG1 beats BG2 for me because: (a) It's the very first RPG I ever played, so strong nostalgia; (b) I much prefer low level to high level D&D; (c) I like exploring open areas; and (d) I very strongly prefer melee combat and don't care at all for D&D spellcasting and spell-battles. On the other end of my comparison, I have always had a hard time understanding the attraction of PsT. Firstly, there is the whole bastardized 2e rules and mechanics which I hate. Combat, and especially melee combat, is gawd-awful. And Chris Avellone is the most highly overrated RPG writer of all-time, and I find his writing and his characters to be pedantic, superficial, and boring (including in PoE1). [Please don't flame me ]

My expectation, from following all news sources pretty closely, is that Avowed will release in second half of 2023, and TOW2 in second half of 2024. Obsidian has said they want to release at least one new game each year, starting with Pentiment (and full release of Grounded) this year.

Which is what makes him an ok tank, but not so much a damage dealer. And that's why I cut him whenever I play a tank myself. But my typical PC is a fighter/rogue or a fighter/wizard. I've played BG1 in particular sooooo many times but have yet to play it even once with the canonical party. Now you've got me hankering to give it another go with the canonical party.

I prefer to lock up Khalid in one of those houses in Nashkel while keeping Jaheira in my party. I do the same thing to split up Minsc and his witch. Never liked the idea of killing off any of the BG1/2 companions even when I disliked them.

Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!! Jaheira is the BEST! She's the only BG1 companion (besides lil' sis) who I have always had in my party every time I've ever played either game (which is quite a few times).

If your concern about these games is coming from a money/budget standpoint, I wouldn't worry too much about it. If there's anything clear about how MS is managing their game studios it is that they are giving them whatever resources they need to make their games. Not one of MS's studios has complained, or even had rumors coming out, that they are being shortchanged on resources.

https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-himars-destroy-high-value-russian-targets-1727253

That is just so horrible that he would abandon family like this, especially as the older brother.

Here's an excellent article on current issues in the Ukraine war (and also some coverage of the Iran-Russia connection and lessons for China v. Taiwan. But most importantly, a great assessment of Putin's current mindset about the war (very troubling): https://www.voanews.com/a/us-warns-putin-falling-for-his-own-rhetoric/6667777.html

We all knew this from the beginning, didn't we? How does anyone continue to believe anything any Russian official says on any issue? https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/07/20/world/ukraine-russia-war#russia-ukraine-territory-expansion-lavrov https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62231936

Russia's war crime (and possible genocide) in abducting hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians: https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/russias-mass-abduction-of-ukrainians-explained/ https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/07/13/world/russia-ukraine-war-news

I recently made this point to a news interview I did on this issue. The benefit to Iran of having nuclear weapons would be exactly the benefit Russia now has with its nukes with respect to their war in Ukraine. Look at what Russia is doing. It blatantly invaded a neighboring state with no provocation or justification, and has done truly outrageous things to that country. And yet Russia's position is that neither Ukraine nor any Ukrainian ally can retaliate for what Russia is doing to Ukraine by striking any targets in Russia. So, Russia can attack Ukraine. But Ukraine cannot retaliate by attacking Russia. Why? Why does this clearly obvious double-standard work? It is entirely because Russia has nukes, and can (and does) threaten nuclear escalation if their territory is attacked (known as "escalation dominance" in international security literature). This is the true, practical benefit of a state like Iran having nukes. Escalation dominance is awesome for a state to have. But it is in practical terms very difficult and very costly to achieve. Possessing nukes is a quick and dirty way to try and gain escalation dominance (though you would need to have a reasonably large arsenal of nukes AND a very reliable and survivable delivery option for your nukes). It may allow Iran to believe it can do whatever it wants to and in states all over the Middle East while threatening nuclear escalation if anyone dares to retaliate against Iranian territory. Iranian air defences have in recent years been considerably strengthened, ironically because of sanctions-relief following the JCPOA in 2015 and as predicted by critics of the JCPOA. But that doesn't matter. If the Israelis see Iran possessing nukes as an existential threat, they will strike no matter the cost to them (and yes, the cost to them will be tremendous, including post-strike Iranian retaliation and fallout with other states in the world). Also, Trump was no true friend of Israel. Like everyone else, Israel too was useful to him so long as he gained some personal political benefit from presenting himself as a champion of Israel. It is known that on at least one occasion as president he personally blocked a covert Israeli op against Iran. He is also known to have told Netanyahu he would not support an Israeli airstrike on Iran.

Iran now has all the technology and components it needs to put together a bomb. So it is only a matter of the political decision to do so followed by the mad rush to get the first bombs assembled and operational. It is my professional view, which aligns with many other nuclear proliferation experts, that the timeline for this would be about two months, give or take. The Israeli strike on Iran is coming once Israel has a stable new government in place (or sooner if circumstances require it). In its most recent test run of the strike, Israeli F-35s were refueled in-flight by US tankers. There cannot be a bigger green light from the US Administration than that. The only way this does not happen is if Iran agrees to a return to the JCPOA without getting any of their unreasonable extraneous demands being met by the US side. I don't see Biden caving on those Iranian demands. And I don't see the Iranians giving up on those demands. I also wouldn't count out a desperate Biden 'rally around the flag' attempt in October to save his party from a rout in November.

One of my favs.

I'm here. I usually read the forum at least once a day. But yeah, despite it being my summer break (or pehaps because of it) I've been swamped with things I have to take care of.

Health issues being the problem here are of course something I'm not aware of. And if that's the case that would truly suck. I can't imagine not being able to drink a beer ever again.

I want the US government to take the lead in designating the Donetsk and Luhansk "people's militias" and "governments" as terrorist groups. That would be a good start. But eventually we are going to have to address this issue of what is Russia's very clear and obvious new strategy in recent days of trying to terrorize the Ukrainian civilian population into surrender.

As some others have mentioned, can't the alternative be some other type of beer? I myself drink beer almost exclusively. But I don't care for IPAs at all. I prefer the darker varieties, on both the ale and lager sides, but the bottom line is that both ales and lagers have a pretty wide range of options.

Long list of snipets of news stories about and from Ukraine from the past three days. Some really interesting tidbits if you have the patience to read through: https://money.yahoo.com/ukraine-news-live-fifteen-killed-034643280.html

Hehe. All I'll say is this: Based on the Drake Equation and the number of Goldilocks exoplanets we've already been able to identify, the statistical odds that we would be alone in the universe are ridiculously improbably low. But given the vastness of the universe, there's a huge difference between intelligent alien life existing out there versus intelligent alien life visiting earth. Beyond this I'd be willing to go only after I retire in about five years from now or space aliens reveal themselves to us, whichever comes first.

"Aurora" goes all the way back to the early 1990s. The rage right now is the Skunkworks' so-called SR-72, complete with pulse-detonation ramjet technology.

What about all those discs and triangles and orbs so many people keep insisting they've seen in the sky ever since 1947? They all seem to be working just fine, right? So let's see how they do against the Ruskies and the Chicoms! Personally though, as a former aerospace engineer, I really want to see the Mach 5 replacement for the SR-71 in action. Is that so much to ask for?

Hehe. Nice to see I'm not the only madman around here who can't wait to see exactly these kinds of things in action. As a scholar of great power rivalry and war, it sucks that I only get to read about it while not supposed to ever want to see it happening with my own eyes (because of that pesky 'casualties' thing).

Well, okay, perhaps Venezuela has other factors at play, but then we can also point to Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iran, Nigeria, etc. as examples of petrostates that are decidedly *not* paradices.