Agiel

I haven't responded to these topics at length for a couple of reasons, chief of which is that it's hard to write coherently when you're watching a human nightmare unfold in close to real time and it feels like you need a close to daily Johnny Walker nightcap to help sleep at night, as I have friends and acquaintances from Ukraine who have thankfully managed to flee to Poland or Moldova (for those interested, here's where I go for my doomscrolling). -To start I can't help but observe just how astoundingly prescient former Russian GenStab member Mikhail Khodarenok was at the beginning of February on outcome of the "Special Operation". Translation provided by the excellent <<Russian Defense Policy>> blog and excerpts provided for emphasis: "To assert that no one in Ukraine will defend the regime signifies practically a complete lack of knowledge about the military-political situation and moods of the broad masses in the neighboring state. And the degree of hatred (which, as is well-known, is the most effective fuel for armed conflict) in the neighboring republic toward Moscow is plainly underestimated. No one in Ukraine will meet the Russian army with bread, salt and flowers. It seems events in south-east Ukraine in 2014 didn’t teach anyone anything. Then they also figured that the entire left-bank Ukraine in one fell swoop and ticked-off seconds would turn into Novorossiya. They already drew the maps, thought out the personnel contingent for the future city and regional administrations, worked out state flags. But even the Russian-speaking population of this part of Ukraine (including also cities like Kharkov, Zaporozhe, Dnepropetrovsk, Mariupol) didn’t support similar thoughts by a huge majority. The “Novorossiya” project somehow imperceptibly deflated and quietly died. In a word, a liberation crusade in 2022 in the form and likeness of 1939 won’t work in any way. In this instance the words of Soviet literature classic Arkadiy Gaydar are true as never before: “It’s obvious that now we won’t have an easy battle, but a hard campaign.” ... To this it’s certainly necessary to add that supplies of prospective and highly-accurate weapons in the VS RF don’t bear any kind of unlimited character. “Tsirkon” hypersonic missiles still aren’t in the armory. And the quantity of “Kalibrs” (sea-based cruise missiles), “Kinzhals,” Kh-101 (air-launched cruise missiles) and missiles for “Iskanders” in the very best case number in the hundreds (dozens in the case of “Kinzhals”). This arsenal is completely insufficient to wipe a state on the scale of France with a population of more than 40 million from the face of the earth. And Ukraine is characterized by exactly these parameters." -Ever since the lines seemingly ossified in at the end of 2014 I had deep suspicions that the Russian armed forces were going to have a substantially harder time moving beyond the Donbass due to the potential morale problems we are seeing now; the Russian armed forces would be invading a fellow Slavic country with a shared cultural and religious background and most Ukrainians are able to speak Russian, fluently in fact. In spite of a painful history between Ukraine and Russia a conflict was as unthinkable for most westerners as the state of Iowa invading Minnesota (I'm reminded of this poignant exchange between Simon Ostrovsky and Ukrainian Naval Infantry from back in 2014). What's more I had believed the addition of the FGM-148 Javelin to the Ukrainian arsenal (which in retrospect should have happened in the direct aftermath of the MH-17 shootdown, not in 2018 when Ukraine had long since ramped up production of domestic ATGMs, which made up for their lack of sophistication in comparison to the Javelin with sheer numbers) was going to be something that would give Russian armour pause due to how devious the thermal imaging mode of the CLU and its launch-and-leave features were going to be on top of the fact that current hard-kill APS measure cannot account for top attack projectiles. -The seemingly derelict Russian Air Force can in part be attributed to the fact that the Russian armed forces tend to treat air power more as "extended range artillery" which drops ordinance no more than 100-150km behind enemy lines, and not as a means of conducting deep battlefield interdiction as western Allied air forces pioneered in Europe in 1943-1945 and the US codified into doctrine with AirLand Battle in the 1980s. For this the Russian Armed Forces would have left the task to breakthrough exploitation force (not happening now, for obvious reasons) or to their missile artillery and cruise missile bombers (both only effective against stationary targets). What has not helped is the severe lack of PGMs and advanced imaging infrared targeting pods in the Russian inventory (the most advanced targeting system in use is the Su-34's targeting system which only has an LLTV mode, which doesn't compare favourably to western IIR-capable offerings like Sniper XR or the ATFLIR) which has limited their ability to engage pop-up targets from a safe enough altitude (most Russian aircraft losses were from MANPADS, as they had to fly low in order to hit targets with any meaningful accuracy, which was fine in Syria, where the MANPADS inventory of rebels quickly dwindled to nothing). -All these factors lead to what is seemingly the only viable strategy left in the minds of the Kremlin, which is to follow the formula they used in Syria, which is to savage Eastern Ukraine and bomb all the civilian infrastructure that makes it possible for the remaining population to make the call that they're better off sitting tight. After all no population left = no partisans or potential troublemakers for the now evidently woefully-inadequate invasion force to deal with (some folks who like living inside their tanks insist that the Russians are making real progress in terms of territory, to which I say: "So, what? They haven't even gotten to what was supposed to be the actual _hard part_ yet, which is installing their Quisling and rebuilding a country while everyone is shooting at them). The message is this: "You want liberal democracy? A small/Mittelstand business climate that isn't (as) racked by corruption and cronyism? Go move to the EU for that, because here it's 'Putin or we burn the country.'" Will add more tomorrow night.

Well as aviation analyst Richard Aboulafia so eloquently put it: "(I)s Vladimir Putin the best F-35 salesman ever, or what?"

Genuinely astonished that "Ukraine is game to you?!" hasn't quite been as widespread as I anticipated:

Few could resist making the crack that the Russian desantniki tried to go a bridge too far with Antonov airfield

In light of Putin's claim of "de-Nazifying Ukraine" my mind was brought back to this vintage photo of a Soviet T-10 during the Prague Spring:

@DarkpriestMaybe you want to ask Europeans or the Kenyans what they think: And last I checked freaking Bernie Sanders wasn't exactly Scoop Jackson-esque in his views on interventionism: Slice of life story: In anticipation of the upcoming release of the Eldar codex I was on my daily sojourn onto Reddit to see the new rules leaks, and the last image on post alone got an upvote from me.

The Kislev one (specifically Katarin's) seems canonical as it is the most detailed and the implication is that TWW3... One of the top threads on the Reddit is how to mod the race for the four souls. You would think that with the feedback on the DLCs the playerbase liked the most that CA learned that players _do not_ appreciate time pressures in their campaigns, but alas.

That last one is a real hoot coming from Putin:

Could put up with a certain backer quest in the Kingmaker cRPG, because prior to hitting level 20 who willingly passes up a decent chunk of EXP?

If you have Toybox installed under "Class Specific" in the Bag of Tricks tab you should see a checkbox for "Witch/Shaman: Cackling/Shanting Extends Hexes by 10 minutes (Out Of Combat)" which should save you a load of time.

The addition of Cathay with its <<Harmony>> mechanic brought my mind to this classic Warhammer Quest mini: My new headcanon is that some Wood Elves visited Cathay shortly after the Sundering, met Celestial Dragon Monks, watched Weijin Opera, and even picked up some Drunken Style fighting and would become the first Wardancers.

http://www.hisutton.com/images/SM_recognition.jpg The very nature of how submarines operate means one could essentially make any claim about their presence. See Soviet and Russian navy claims about the K-129, K-219 (the skipper and XO of this boat actually went on record dispelling the theory of a collision with a US Navy submarine), and K-141. Couple that with the fact that we have declassified records of USS Parche regularly penetrating Soviet waters to conduct cable taps in the Barents bastion and its mission now taken over by the USS Jimmy Carter and boats like it that have been in service since the early 90s are said to have spent more time in the waters off Murmansk than some Russian ships based there begs the question why the Russian Navy have not boasted about detecting such submarines in a littoral environment before now, let alone in the open sea? Given that the Russian navy tends to be the one service that struggles the most for funding (particularly if it isn't directly connected to the nuclear deterrence mission) they certainly could use the propaganda coup since the end of the Cold War.

In the spirit of Khorne, here's a dumb joke. Q: Skull Throne, Servitor Skulls, terrain made of skulls. Why is everything in Warhammer made of skulls? A: It's the most abundant resource.

Here's some sax in your black metal:

I got more of Tom Hulce as Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart vibe from that path (with Queen Galfrey as Salieri, of course): Funnily enough, some incidental dialogue from the citizens in Drezen have them speaking backwards too.

In a quixotic effort to have characters ready in time for the DLC (of which you apparently import them partway through Threshold) I've created two characters, one a Sylvan Sorcerer going Azata and the other trying to perfect my previous Knife Master Trickster, though this time around trying them out in Core difficulty. With the Sylvan Sorcerer with an Elk companion I've found myself relying far more heavily on the time-honoured tactic of "clogging the arteries," having Seelah and Camelia stand ready at the door, have the Elk companion lure the enemy melee combatants, then doubling back to the doorway and hopefully dealing with them piecemeal (though an unlucky Natural 20 scored against the decoy or those Cambions rolling hot will often lead to a quick load). I'm curious as to how you guys playing as primarily casters were able to get through with a minimum of rests, as it seems I won't be able to kill that Large Water Elemental and those two Medium Earth Elementals with just five casts of Magic Missile and Grease without getting my hair mussed.

Corrected now. Thanks for the heads up.

The fact that Cackle can be used out of combat to effectively function as a pre-battle buff did not go unnoticed by the developers for Toy Box, as there was an option for "Cackle for 10 minutes outside of combat" or something like that. Can't help but think doing such in a live tabletop session will earn one withering glances or rulebook in the face from the DM.

Unfortunately I can't speak to how well the Mythic path synergises with a bomber archetype, as in my playthrough my PC was an Elf Knife Master Rogue. The Perception 2 Trick helping to impart Improved Improved Improved Critical to party members certainly did wonders for Camellia and Woljif (the latter, whom I had largely neglected, managed to get bumped from terrible to tolerably usable). Mobility talents for my Rogue PC were also quite hilarious, as on top of maxing out Dex and the usual AC-buffing shenanigans (short of the vaunted Monk/Scaled Fist dips) the Trickster spell-list includes the critical survivability spells such as Mirror Image and Displacement (on top of the <<Bit of Fun>> Mythic ability, which is Mirror Image in all but name) she could run circles around crowds of mobs and body parts would fly everywhere due to all of the flat-footed AOOs. As mentioned in the previous thread the Persuasion 2 trick can open the way to some one-shots with a ready supply of Polar Rays (see: Ring of Boreal Might), but as the Paralyse check is 10 plus your ranks of Persuasion the max DC is limited to 30 at level 20, leading me to believe its utility will not be as great in Core and above. Nonetheless as Gromnir has stated repeatedly, the essentially free Dazzling Display at the beginning of combat bestowed by Persuasion 1 will certainly be invaluable.

You're scarcely scratching the surface of what it is that makes a Carrier Strike Group such a useful asset. Take the 2015 deployment of the Russian Air Force to Hmeimim. For several weeks the US DoD announced the ever increasing amount of aircraft and materiel flowing into the air base before the Russian Air Force finally commenced air operations in earnest out of Hmeimim. A carrier air group by contrast has essentially everything it needs to start operations as soon as it's on station (available aircraft for all roles such as AEW and refueling, support personnel, armaments, fuel, lodging and food for aircrew, etc. capability I'm sure the Kuznetsov crew thought was eye-watering as their deployment was ostensibly a very expensive and roundabout way of ferrying some MiG-29Ks and obsolescent Su-33s to Hmeimim). Hence Clinton saying the first question a President asks when a crisis erupts is "Where's the nearest carrier?". Even absent the carriers the "gap" you mentioned is plugged in by aircraft out of Kadena using aerial refueling This need for rapid flexibility instead of permanent presence is also underscored by the fact that the US Army and Air Force in Europe have since been consolidated with their Africa commands. In terms of ground forces there's only one ABCT in Europe on rotational basis, with the only major combat unit permanently garrisoned being 2nd Cavalry Regiment (raise your hand if you can picture a _Stryker_ Brigade on a road to Moscow). The effort to get a permanent Army presence in Poland during the Trump administration (mind you, an idea put forward by the Polish themselves and attempted to entice Trump to go ahead with it by proposing it be named "Fort Trump") was all but stillborn when the US and Poland failed to resolve the issue of cost-sharing. A more politically expedient solution has been found in the form of simply selling the Polish armed forces M1A2 tanks, and will likely be carried out even if Trump or a Trump-like candidate gets elected in 2024 (more jobs for General Dynamics, after all). You speak of NATO needing a boogey-man to stay relevant. That argument cuts both ways. Russia ranks dead last in trust in institutions, and thus in the middle of a deadly pandemic (excess deaths, considered by epidemiologists to be a far better indicator of the impact of COVID-19 than official death counts, put death rates in Russia at a phenomenally higher rate than the rest of the developed world) Putin needs a big political win on the level of his annexation of Crimea, else normal Russians no longer consent to serfdom to the oligarchs.

Apart from the fact that European defence spending on the whole was in seeming terminal decline up until the annexation of Crimea and the the shootdown of MH17 gave European governments the kick in the pants nearly three whole US presidential administrations had failed to do, and that the character of US foreign policy ever since Obama's second term has been one of disengaging with European matters (arguably the biggest factor in softening the US position of JCPOA in favour of Iran were European negotiators, their reasons misguided or not). This is reflected by the fact that China remains top of mind for the Biden administration (only one CVN is in the Mediterranean as opposed to the two CSGs and one ARG currently in the Western Pacific) and they've made abundantly clear that it is unlikely that any wider American involvement is forthcoming (barring, well, I don't know, Wagner Group or other thugs wantonly marauding west of the Dnieper), all but stating that if nothing else Europeans themselves have to take the lead on this. Face it, Putin is the best advertisement for NATO membership among Russia's near-abroad. I hardly think escalating in Ukraine to keep it from joining NATO is a good trade if it drives Sweden and _Finland_ into NATO's arms and adding 500+ miles of frontage with NATO countries with no love for the Kremlin, are highly motivated, armed to the teeth, have high degrees of interoperability with NATO, and are also less than 100 miles from Russia's _second_ most important city.

@xzar_montyHey thanks! Worked on it on and off for about a week (hey, I wish I had Darkergrey's work ethic) so it's hard to say how many hours in total I spent on it. Initially I thought Aivu would be the toughest part of drawing it (as I am not a scaley), but as it turned out Arueshalae's outfit turned out to be what vexed me most, taking two scrapped passes until I finally got it right.

After much procrastination I managed to knock this out: Because on a world countless lightyears from our own mothers still use Royal Dansk Cookie tins as a sewing kit container.