BruceVC

The reality is now the US is actively involved in this war, it was always possible The real question now is how this will negatively impact Trump in the midterms because this will fracture the MAGA base So its a good move for the Dems and the midterms

https://www.newsweek.com/iran-nominates-trump-nobel-peace-prize-he-threatens-neighboring-iran-2088699 Here is a good news story about Trump , unexpected but appreciated in the context of ending wars Pakistan is nominating Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize for the important role the US played in ending the recent India vs Pakistan war As stated by us in the Security Council, Pakistan favours a peaceful resolution to the crisis through dialogue and diplomacy," the Pakistani Mission said. "We hope that the situation will not escalate militarily, and tensions will be diffused amicably through diplomatic engagement." "President Trump has distinguished himself as a peacemaker," the Mission added. "His statesmanship and successful diplomatic intervention with Pakistan and India played a crucial role in bringing about a ceasefire between the two countries in May 2025." I think its an important reminder of the nuance and complexity of Trumps presidency and how he is seen in a much more positive light by countries outside of the typical media opinions and views we consume that can influence our views Its a pity Trump feels the need to gloat about these types of things on Truth but thats his hubris, insecurity and unhealthy obsession with SM attention. Its not how you want a US president to conduct themselves And @Malcadoryou will find this interesting, Im not sure if you aware but the US has been instrumental in a ceasefire in the DRC https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-deal-democratic-republic-congo-rwanda-war-mineral-resources/ Hopefully it maintains because its good for Africa and the region

Here is a good analysis about the reasons behind Irans military failures and current situation The Russian military expert Ruslan Pukhov wrote a great article about Iran. Subtext of the article is about Russia. Imitation of Power Director of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies Ruslan Pukhov on the Causes of the Crisis of Iranian Defense Policy The first days of the Iran-Israel war clearly demonstrated the deep crisis of Iranian defense policy and building of defense. The reasons for this crisis are obvious and make the whole story very instructive. The basis of the crisis is the subordination of foreign and defense policy not to practical, but to chimerical ideocratic goals, for the implementation of which Iran does not have enough (and will never have enough) economic, military and technological resources. Instead of really promoting its influence (which it did not have), Iran was largely engaged in its imitation. Moreover, this imitation suited both the ruling elite of Iran, allowing it to sell this as a "great power" to the Iranian "deep people", and the numerous implementers of this policy in Iran, first of all, of course, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The IRGC, representing a typical oprichnina, naturally turned, in fact, into a semi-mafia organization interested in the constant expansion of its political and economic influence, in the development of the maximum amount of state resources. As a result, the IRGC has effectively “privatized” Iran’s foreign and defense policy, and to a large extent “privatized” the Iranian state itself, subordinating its policy to the narrow and corporate interests of the IRGC’s top brass. As a result, the example of Iran has become a clear example of how an attempt to portray and pursue a great power policy without the corresponding level of resources and development only leads to an imitation of a “great power”, to the construction of Potemkin villages in foreign policy, military construction, etc. This allows for some time to successfully bluff, intimidate, and trade influence (within the country and abroad), but this system falls apart as soon as someone seriously decides to test its strength. This is exactly what we are seeing. In an effort to compete with the US-Israel coalition in the Middle East, Iran has invested colossal resources in allies and satellites in recent decades - primarily Shiite countries and movements (primarily the notorious “Axis of Resistance”). At times, such a policy seemed successful and felt like a serious challenge, but as soon as Israel seriously took on such key elements of the Axis as Hezbollah and Hamas, it quickly and successfully neutralized them. The Iranian intervention in Syria also ended in disaster. As a result, Iran's colossal expenditures on all sorts of proxies went down the drain and all Iranian "influence" was quickly nullified by the powers that be in a real clash. In the military sphere, Iran was engaged in imitation of the construction of supposedly high-tech armed forces, while not having a sufficient level of technological and industrial development for this. As a result, when real modern technologies (Western and Israeli) came to the battlefield, the Iranian armed forces suffered a fiasco. Well, yes, they hit Israel with missiles several times, but even Saddam Hussein could do that in 1991. The accumulation of a diverse arsenal of, as we can see, not the most sophisticated and not highly accurate ballistic missiles has become the main Iranian achievement, and this arsenal could not even remotely compete with the power of the modern Air Force. It is now clear that many Iranian weapons, even those that looked quite modern, were built on primitive and low-quality components, because Iran had nowhere to get modern ones from. From the very beginning of the military conflict, Iran in many respects turned out to be an archaic "paper tiger". This does not mean that it is doomed to complete defeat in a clash with Israel or even the United States - backward and archaic societies have demonstrated a high degree of resilience in such situations many times in history. However, from the point of view of its long-term national interests, Iran needs a radical change in the guidelines of its foreign and defense policy, bringing this policy into line with its real interests, capabilities and resources. Among other things, an important element of this must apparently be a conscientious refusal to give up the suitcase without a handle in the form of the Iranian nuclear program. If this does not happen, Iran will be doomed to repeat catastrophes and further degradation. It is unclear whether the Iranian anachronistic regime will be able to undergo such a transformation. In fact, this is the main issue of both the current war and Iranian policy in general. https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/7801167

Thats fine, as long as you not suggesting that BBC doesnt cover Israel killing civilians or targeting civilian infrastructure then we agreement That was the impression you created when you said " There's a pattern there about who's hospitals have value and who's don't"

Nice, I played Arcanum for the first time a few months ago Its the last CRPG from that era I hadnt played and I had a great time The combat mechanics weren't great but the overall narrative, side quests, class and skill choices and different ways of solving quests were brilliant. And the whole map exploration I really enjoyed Overall I had a very positive experience

Not really, Trump is trying to avoid bombing Iran because then the US is actively involved in the war as opposed to just defending Israel if attacked so the 2 weeks is about giving the EU and other types of diplomacy a chance to end the war And the US getting actively involved is very unpopular for several MAGA groups because Trump committed to " keeping the USA out of unnecessary wars " So its about political blowback within the USA for Trump and people like Tucker Carlson is opposed to US bombing Iran so it could create fractures within MAGA support And this decision is made worse by Trumps predictable inconsistent rants and comments on Truth about what he is thinking I wish Trump would stop commenting on Truth, it adds to the confusion of what he means and is thinking and then his spokespeople have to explain what he means...its tiresome

Im not sure what your point really is, the BBC covers the IDF heavy handedness and its killing of civilians constantly and consistently and that includes hospitals being targeted in Gaza No idea what you mean by " There's a pattern there about who's hospitals have value and who's don't" because thats not what the BBC does This was just from a 30 second search of the hits from "BBC israel bombs gaza hospitals " https://www.bbc.com/news/videos/c4g28z483eko https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjr7l123zy5o https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1mg4ld5951o

Yes conventional wars need more than airstrikes if the objective is to occupy a country but this is about getting Iran to change a policy direction and its not about regime change as much as Israel would love that Serbia was bombed twice because of Kosovo and Bosnia and as far as I know there was no NATO invasion but the airstrikes had the desired outcome and Serbia changed direction And words like existential often get misused by different leaders to justify military actions, for example Russia never faced any existential threat from Ukraine that justified the invasion Irans leadership can claim abandoning there nuclear program is existential but they well known for fiery rhetoric and grandstanding. This is the first time since the Iran vs Iraq war that they have been directly attacked in a war so I question if they will maintain that stance facing regular airstrikes It will be very difficult for Iran to continue its nuclear program if there nuclear sites are destroyed or damaged or they getting constantly bombed And I have to assume that any ceasefire would include full access by IAEA to Iran to confirm they have ended the program because how else would you monitor the agreed on ceasefire? So Iran would have to agree to that and then the IAEA would report on that But of course if Iran doesnt agree to that then the Israeli military campaign will continue " Why now " is a good question. Israel has always considered Iran and its proxies there main enemy in the ME and Iran considers Israel its main enemy in the ME And after 7 October Israel and Netanyahu have a legitimate reason to act around Israel's security which is exactly what they done as far as Iran and its proxies is concerned which is why we have seen the dismantling both directly and indirectly of Irans proxies that include both Hamas, Hezbollah and Assad Of course the Israeli far right have also hijacked this legitimate security concern around the heavy handedness of how the Palestinians have been treated and the ongoing war in Gaza But Iran and its nuclear program is still a threat to Israel outside of the Palestinian conflict and thats what this military campaign is about I also think Israel was surprised how relatively easy it was to defeat Irans proxies and also how they were able bomb Iran a few months ago, I think most of us over-estimated Irans anti-aircraft defences So in summary Israel decided the best way to end the threat of a nuclear Iran is to attack Iran directly and force them change course as opposed to waiting for negotiations and not having accurate information around how far Iran really is around enriching Uranium

Yes, the current US government is the most pro-Israel military government we have seen in ages And the next US president will have different views on supporting Israel around Iran But I assume this war will be long over by then, I cant imagine any country continuing a war where its getting bombed on a daily basis and Iran has lost air supremacy so it has no way of stopping Israel's airstrikes Based on what evidence? This is a unique situation where a country is getting attacked because it wants to get nukes and the way you end this war is agreeing to end that nuke program I gave you an example earlier around Hezbollah and I remember at the time of Israel launching its campaign into Lebanon some people were saying "Israel is going to annex Lebanon and this is going to be a long and complicated and unwinnable war for Israel " and yet that war ended the moment Hezbollah agreed to stop firing rockets into Israel which was exactly what Israel wanted to achieve And this Iran war is no different, Iran can agree to end its nuke program and allow unrestricted access to the IAEA who can monitor this commitment. You dont need to invade or occupy Iran to achieve this military objective Why turn something simple into something complicated? Regime change would be a different story, that would be unrealistic and complicated

Let me ask you a different question Forget Israel and the current Israeli vs Iranian hostility Considering the reality of Shia\Sunni regional tension do you support Iran getting nukes in whatever timeframe? Do you believe any new country should be able to get nukes? Would you support Ukraine getting nukes knowing the regional tension with Russia this will create?

Yes the long-term problem of Iran and Israel ever being friends and not being hostile to each other is not likely at least with the current governments on both sides But again and I dont mean to keep repeating myself but this current military campaign can and will end if Iran capitulates and abandons its nuclear program Im not sure why anyone thinks this is such a difficult objective to achieve? Its like the Israeli military campaign into Lebanon, that ended when Hezbollah agreed to stop firing rockets into Israel, it was a relatively easy objective to understand and achieve Here's an interesting link about the military benefits with Israel having air supremacy over Iran https://time.com/7294919/israel-air-supremacy-tehran-iran/ The only reason I can think of that would change Israel achieving its stated objective is Iran is able to do massive damage to Israel with its missile counter-offensive and then Israel also agrees to end this war because of the cost to them?

But the BBC article is based on what the IAEA has already said https://news.un.org/en/story/2025/06/1164291 "The draft for Thursday’s resolution highlights serious and growing concerns since at least 2019 that Iran had failed to cooperate fully with the UN agency’s inspectors. Tehran has “repeatedly” been unable to explain and demonstrate that its nuclear material was not being diverted for further enrichment for military use, the draft text maintains. Iran has also failed to provide the UN agency with “technically credible explanations for the presence of [man-made] uranium particles” at undeclared locations in Varamin, Marivan and Turquzabad, it continues. “Unfortunately, Iran has repeatedly either not answered, or not provided technically credible answers to, the agency’s questions,” IAEA chief Grossi said on Monday. “It has also sought to sanitize the locations, which has impeded Agency verification activities.” According to Mr. Grossi, Tehran has stockpiled 400 kilogrammes of highly enriched uranium. “Given the potential proliferation implications, the agency cannot ignore [this],” he told the UN agency’s governing board on Monday. " And I already mentioned Im not taking seriously what the US or Israel says but we should all take seriously what the IAEA says. Iran has a history of not complying with the IAEA and trying to hide aspects of its nuclear program

But Israel doesn't need to invade Iran to end its nuclear program or occupy Iran Its nothing like Ukraine, that was a massive land invasion, occupation and recreation of Ukraine's sovereign borders

Yes, I agree considering the reality now it was a mistake for the US to leave the nuclear agreement because nothing changed after that and now the outcome is Israel attacking Iran to end the program. So the US staying in the agreement would have been better But we cant change the past and it doesn't mean you cant end the Iran's nuclear program now. Its a choice Iran can make Iran doesn't need nukes and if they ended there fundamentalist and militant anti-US and anti-Israel objectives they could be as prosperous and influential as Saudi Arabia in the ME, they have the potential, work ethos and resources But as a Persian state and not an Arab one

But the issue is how close they are to enriching Uranium to 90% and how the credible UN nuclear body the IAEA has been not received full access to sites or the necessary information Im not that concerned with what Israel or the US thinks, its what the IAEA says https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn840275p5yo " Last week, the IAEA said in its latest quarterly report that Iran had amassed enough uranium enriched up to 60% purity - a short, technical step away from weapons grade, or 90% - to potentially make nine nuclear bombs. That was "a matter of serious concern", given the proliferation risks, it added. The agency also said it could not provide assurance that the Iranian nuclear programme was exclusively peaceful because Iran was not complying with its investigation into man-made uranium particles discovered by inspectors at three undeclared nuclear sites. "

The Israelis wont achieve regime change despite Netanyahu's rhetoric and the Shah was very corrupt But the objective of Iran abandoning its nuclear program is realistic with the IAEA having full and unrestricted access to all sites I imagine thats how you ensure Iran sticks to the agreement?

Its not about what Netanyahu says, of course he is exaggerating or sensationalizing the whole " Iran will have nukes in months " Its the IAEA that you should listen to and they have been warning Iran is close to 90% Uranium enrichment or they cant confirm the exact stage because they have been prohibited from certain sites and they have provided numerous concerns over the last 12-24 months similar to this updated opinion. No country since the end of the Cold War needs nukes and no new country should be able to get nukes. We cant change the reality of any country having nukes but we can definitely be opposed to any new attempt from anyone to get nukes https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce3v6w2qr12o " The global nuclear watchdog's board of governors has formally declared Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations for the first time in 20 years. Nineteen of the 35 countries on the board of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) voted for the motion, which was backed by the US, UK, France and Germany. It says Iran's "many failures" to provide the IAEA with full answers about its undeclared nuclear material and activities constitutes non-compliance. It also expresses concern about Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium, which can be used to make reactor fuel but also nuclear weapons. " https://apnews.com/article/iran-nuclear-iaea-uranium-7f6c9962c1e4199e951559096bcf5cc0 " The IAEA report raised a stern warning, saying that Iran is now “the only non-nuclear-weapon state to produce such material” — something the agency said was of “serious concern.” Approximately 42 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium is theoretically enough to produce one atomic bomb, if enriched further to 90%, according to the watchdog. The IAEA report, a quarterly, also estimated that as of May 17, Iran’s overall stockpile of enriched uranium — which includes uranium enriched to lower levels — stood at 9,247.6 kilograms (20,387.4 pounds). That’s an increase of 953.2 kilograms (2,101.4 pounds) since February’s report."

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2lxkpekedo The amount of SM fake news and sensationalism on this war from both sides is predictable but still unhelpful and intense I am only trying to follow credible and relevant media updates and avoiding SM updates as much as reasonably possible And it seems that Israel has achieved air supremacy over much of Iran, Im not sure how much longer it can really go on with that military objective achieved "Israel already says it has gained control of the skies over Tehran. It has been a complete mismatch in the air - with no sign of Iran's few ageing fighter jets even getting off the ground. Israel's fleet of modern, US-made fighters have been able to drop guided bombs from short range - with apparently little concern of being shot down. Much of the threat from Iran's air defences was destroyed in an earlier Israeli strike in October - using longer range "stand-off" weapons to target Iran's S300 missile systems. In recent days Israel's air force has continued to target ground-based radar and launchers. Even before the attack got under way, Israel had intelligence operatives inside Iran preparing to disrupt its response. Mossad agents used drones smuggled into the country to target Iran's remaining air defence systems. Israeli attacks also wiped out many in Iran's top level of command, which would have also undermined Iran's response. "

https://abcnews.go.com/US/trump-kicks-off-massive-military-parade-national-mall/story?id=122853103 It wasnt as attended as I assumed, I guess the general negative sentiment expressed on this thread was an accurate benchmark of how most Americans felt about this celebration Its understandable considering the reality of the political climate but it reflects poorly on Trumps overall popularity

Have you watched any of the Godfathers? They classics and there is 4th one that was released long after the first 3 which is really a directors cut of the third one but it provides closure You might find them a little a slow compared to modern day mob movies but they iconic and they set the standard for most mob movies that came after them

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/russia-says-israels-attack-iran-was-unprovoked-illegal-2025-06-13/ Putins comments on Israel attacking Iran "We strongly condemn the use of force by the state of Israel in violation of the Charter of the United Nations and international law," the ministry said. Unprovoked military strikes against a sovereign U.N. member state, its citizens, peaceful cities, and nuclear energy infrastructure are categorically unacceptable. The international community cannot afford to be indifferent to such atrocities, which destroy peace and damage regional and international security," it said. The statement called on both sides "to exercise restraint in order to prevent a further escalation of tensions and the descent of the region into full-scale war". This type of constant hypocrisy and delusion from Putin when he is doing in Ukraine everything that he is criticizing Israel of doing never ceases to both amaze me and make me laugh Its yet another example of the ubiquitous false outrage that is common nowadays " wars and invasions are wrong unless my team is doing it and then its based and fine " But at least he mentions the importance of the UN and international law .....that must count for something

Im not sure about that , Iran has been anti-Israel and anti-US for decades and only its nuclear program has led to this military campaign?

Two things can be true at the same time I do think Netanyahu uses certain events to distract from his own political shortfalls but then Israel was attacked on 7 October and Iran is trying to get nukes which is threat to the stability of the region So its not just about Israel, I dont know a single country in the region who wants Iran to get nukes except for Iran and its proxies

Remember a couple of months ago Israel was able to successfully attack Iran and it was apparent that Irans anti-aircraft defenses is lacking Irans military prowess was also exaggerated, I thought they were more effective than what was revealed or assumed and clearly sanctions have had an overall negative impact But they do have lots of missiles and drones they can launch against Israel but I dont see them stopping the Israeli airstrikes that are imminent The sooner Iran abandons its nuclear program the better for them

I doubt it, Trumps trying to save face and suggest it was his decision because he wants to do what he always does. Project an image that he is in control Some of his comments on Truth about this are rants. The US was busy with negotiations and they were meeting Iran on Sunday so why would he plan an attack on Iran? Besides the US doesnt have the influence on Israel where it can decide when Israel launches any military campaign This was an Israeli decision and Israel has explained why which I understand, its about ending the Iran nuclear program