pmp10

There have been numerous reports of Russians using Ukrainian uniforms so at the very least it makes good 'psyops' sense as Zor would put it. For all we know it can be true. Maybe elements of Ukrainian army might have really defected and none was keen to publicly admit it. Maybe in confusion friendly fire has been taken to extreme and the dead labeled as Russians.

Interesting, might be geographical difference then. I guess we will see soon enough. We are nearing 48 hours now and shock and awe ought to be letting off now. I would expect resistance to either start hardening or collapsing at this point.

Funny because I didn't have this impression. Social media is full of fit military-age men running for the border and no Ukrainian men in my professional environment is rushing back either.

Italian Luxury goods and Belgian Diamonds were rumored to be the sticking points in imposing EU sanctions yesterday. Quite ironic that they would sanction oligarchs in EU but refuse to sanction products intended for them. And another sanction that will really sting - Russia is off Eurovision. And on the war front it seems that a third of Russian troops is now committed. If there is any hope for Ukraine it would be that after spearhead units are engaged, the reminder of Russians will turn out too demoralized to fight effectively.

Sizable maybe, but I doubt if sheer numbers count for much in the era of precision munitions. I don't think we have the morale for human wave attacks either.

Oh I wish. Latest war games rated Poland at one week of active resistance against Russia without NATO involvement. Jokes were running that assumption was Russians needed 3 days to sober up.

No army in eastern Europe comes close to Russian capability. At best there could be a symbolic 'let's die together' stand / suicide pact with Ukrainian troops. Symbolic contributions to NATO.

You sir, are an insult to the art of trolling. Back on topic - Ukrainian side is growing more and more desperate. Handing out assault rifles, stopping men up to 65 from leaving the country, calling for Molotov ****tail defense of cities. And with combat reported in Kiev finally this:

Sorry but you are effectively saying he will invade NATO while bogged down in Ukrainian insurgency. I mean he might be crazy but there is still calculation behind his actions. In fact, he seems to have estimated the western response pretty well. And if it's the same Ukrainian government that was ruling the country last week? Do you then isolate Ukraine that will be insisting that they are now fine with 'demilitarization', recognition of Crimea/separatists republic and never joining NATO? What if Russian troops retreat and there is no need to occupy anything because the new Ukraine will have changed enough to their liking?

Welp. If that is going too far then I'm giving it 5 years until next episode set in Moldova.

Apparently Macron was talking just talking to Putin. After the previous 'personal assurances' and 'torture by talking' this must make for an awkward conversation.

There was also the seizing of bank assets but that doesn't improve the response much. No will in EU to cut SWIFT and energy sanctions also seem of the table. Russian propaganda will have great time with this. Worse - what if Putin retaliates with energy sanctions of his own.

Do surrounded pockets and big cities count? I guess urban combat will be a good indication if Ukrainian population will resist.

Seems Ukraine is losing airports all over the country to airborne landing and there is a rumor of a major para drop heading for Kiev. At this rate the capital might not last until Monday.

These munitions won't last forever. And there is always a good chance that western response will crush Ukrainian will to resist.

Precisely why this is happening. If Ukraine folds within a week not even serious sanctions might happen. The gamble is that the west will accept a quick win as a fait accompli. I thought a 'madman' act was put on display for better negotiation leverage. Instead he must have twisted many arms to get Russian army to go forward with it.

Would explain mystery of the Kiev airport.

Gunshots are reported around Kiev airport and Putin just said he has no plans to occupy the country. This makes some crazy sense now, he is thinking regime change Kabul '79 style. Also explains the names lists, troop dispositions and intelligence on the invasion dates. Little wonder some in armed forces leaked that to the US, too bad it wasn't enough to dissuade him. That would mean his expectation is easy collapse of resistance if not outright surrender after first clashes.

Putin orders military operations in Ukraine Explosions are already reported in Kiev, might mean a full scale invasion instead of just grabbing Donetsk.

Right now they don't. But if they see EU or NATO being useless things might change.

Don't speak for the whole Europe on this. In the east there will be much more willingness to impose sanctions.

I don't see how he can archive his objectives without it. He seems to have no patience for slow strangulation and other effective options are occupation or making Ukraine permanently unstable. That is unless he flips on that 20-year long NATO membership suspension plan, but he shot that down hard yesterday.

So recognition of Luhansk and Donetsk by Duma is complete but the question of borders was largely dodged. Most likely leaving themselves a bargain chip for negotiations. Or another escalation excuse.

Russian recognition of Luhansk and Donetsk republics has been officially announced. No details yet, but arming of the separatists should be expected at a minimum. Or they might skip a few escalation steps and move the Russian troops right in. This means Minsk accords are dead and dissected and EU will have to respond with sanctions. The only question being if they will go beyond symbolic ones.

And if they don't? Taking things public means he can no longer back down without something to show for this mess. So Putin committed to making the call today, there is only so much that last-minute diplomacy can do now. Better yet, one recommendation was to use the pre-2014 borders which would mean that good deal of territory will need 'liberating' from Ukrainian 'occupation'.