Zoraptor

Or 400,000sqm. Even at a mere (ohoho) 1m deep on average that's 400,000t of water. If it would take you an hour to walk around it's not really a pond. And I wasn't comparing it with the NK dam in terms of size- that would be more comparable to the Tabqa Dam/ Lake Assad in Syria- I was comparing it in terms of something that didn't happen despite months of being told it was imminent with something that actually did, and did actually force evacuations and danger to civilians. Not the first time Ukraine has done it either, since at very least they blew the dam at Sviatohirsk as well, when they lost that position. I am also somewhat amused that some of the more... hopeful pro Ukrainian mappers have them launching successful counterattacks across the flooded area. Nobody begrudges being hopeful, but sheesh, come up with something which isn't contradicted by your own side guys.

No, because Syria isn't in Ukraine. I was comparing the constant kerfuffle about the Nova Kharkovka dam and the imminent/ ongoing war crime that never actually happened there, with a pond. Though calling a body of water (or two, if they blew both up) larger than one km a pond is a bit disingenuous unless you grew up in Kensington Palace or something.

Looks like Bakhmut is pretty much done now. Bunch of small towns to the north confirmed or near confirmed as taken today, and all the high ground there too. They'd need a pretty big counterattack very soon to stabilise things, and it doesn't look like it's going to happen. The dam there has been blown (specifically by Ukraine, so we don't get any reflexive accusations of war crimes) to flood the city's river, and that only really makes sense as a way to discourage pursuit of an active retreat. May have left it too late though, since even some proUA types have Bohdanivka as contested and that would make the exit route from Bakhmut... uncomfortably narrow (location if anyone is interested) with the last road unusable. Not a particularly important place in and of itself whatever either side has said at various times, but there certainly were a lot of Ukrainian troops there at one point and it protected some far more important areas (Kramatorsk/ Slaviansk to the northwest, Kostiantinivka to the southwest).

RoP won't get cancelled, they'd have to pay for the license anyway and that's a ludicrous proportion of the series' costs- even without all the other sunk costs they have like moving all their sets from NZ. Plus a cancellation would almost certainly be a resignation issue for senior managers responsible for it and Turkeys don't vote for an early Christmas. I'd suspect RoP has been more disappointing financially for Amazon than anything Star Trek has been for Paramount, full stop. Beaten handily by Clarkson's Farm of all things...

Zhukov wasn't popular in 1941 though, he got picked because unlike pretty much everyone else he, at least, had one actual factual win. And maybe because Stalin post his breakdown recognised that if he'd listened to and followed Zhukov's advice earlier the situation would have been a lot better*. Zhokov is also kind of... embiggened, reputationally. People love having 'supercommanders' in their histories because that makes a good story- see the adulation for the decidedly average (but far better than most at the time) Timoshenko in the west during 1941. Stalin got out of the way of a bunch of other generals too. The crucial thing was that post 1941 breakdown Stalin didn't really interfere much with Stavka in general, unlike Churchill and Hitler with their equivalents, or logistics or design as Hitler did. When he did it tended to be a problem, it was just that, well for example, wasting thousands of lives in 1945 in the lead up to Berlin plain couldn't make a difference to the ultimate result of the war, by that time. In any case, I'd struggle to call anyone who regularly liquidated their management team 'a good manager'. Can't really learn and improve if your brain is decorating the Lubyanka wall instead of thinking. *though, of course, most of that does come from Zhukov himself so grain of salt needed.

lolwut. First time I've ever seen Stalin described as a good manager. And he got lied to all the time. Best you can say is that unlike Hitler he got out of the way of actually competent people when he really had to and had fewer pet project failures in WW2 (so not even counting Gallipoli/ Dardenelles) than Churchill did.

Rasputitsa is unlikely to help much in Bakhmut. Indeed, with the current situation an early melt/ rains would probably help the Russians there (though it would be the reverse in an active pursuit, so it might be militarily worthwhile to hold on as a delaying tactic), since any Ukrainian retreat would have to be largely cross country. If the Russians are in Yahidne and can't be dislodged quickly... that's it really, elevated position over Bakhmut proper with straight line of sight to the last road in and out, and well within mortar and atgm range. And even some pro UA maps have them there, now, indeed pro Russian mappers like Rybar seem to be if anything more conservative on the gains. As above, you'd hope so. I do rather like the idea that Biden came to Kiev partly to tell Zelensky to withdraw since dropping hints wasn't working, and the timing seems to line up with a meeting prior to the publicised speeches/ walks etc. Meh, believe it when it happens. Buying up even more Russian gas/ oil and financing infrastructure for it, yes. Having said that though: Whatever happens, antagonising both your strategic enemies at the same time is moronic and yet that's what has happened. If you wanted to deal with China as a priority- sensible, they're a far larger long term threat than Russia- you should have parked the conflict with Russia 18 months ago when it could be.

Interesting that Reuters doesn't mention the persistent Russian complaint about their inspectors being effectively banned from the US and thus having been unable to carry out inspections for the past year. Guess after ABM, INF, Open Skies, JCPOA etc the US really didn't want to leave another treaty first. It's not a claim, it comes direct from the White House, was repeated by the WH press secretary at a press briefing and was reported on by dozens if not hundreds of outlets. Apart from that, the FSB is not who the deconfliction line goes to same as if the Russians call it doesn't go to the FBI, and as Malc pointed out the only thing the FSB guy said was that they didn't give security guarantees. But then they also don't give security guarantees for, say, a visit to and speech in Poland either and they could most definitely hit Biden there as well, if they wanted to start WW3.

Hence not much chance. The US also- unsurprisingly- contacted the Russians beforehand to let them know Biden was coming, which made it practically no chance. Same as the Brits did for Boris Johnson when he went. Which is kind of amusing given how many people seem to think it was incredibly brave of them to go like they were heading into Bakhmut on a chopper instead of toodling in and out on a train, having let the Russians know the itinerary beforehand.

Not much chance at all of an actual air raid during the day in Kiev. If Biden wanted the geopolitical equivalent of base jumping he could always have visited Bakhmut. That certainly would have been... interesting.

The US version of The Killing is actually not bad at all, it's just nowhere near as good as the Danish original. The US version definitely needs to be watched first (and they're different enough that it doesn't really spoil the original).

Somewhat related, I watched Witcher Blood Origin recently. Mainly related because I very much suspected before starting that I would... have some issues with it. However I actually ended up really enjoying it! Nice to have a pleasant surprise for once.

And a year plus for the Abrams. Can't help but wonder if all the pontifications about Russia constantly running out of ordinance was a bit of projection based on how quickly western stocks were being depleted and with the Russians supposedly still firing off three times as many shells per day as Ukraine. Funnily enough, the guy 'executed' via sledgehammer by Wagner has turned up alive and chatting to Prigozhin in a couple of videos. Exactly what they got out of faking it, who knows. Dude definitely loves a good troll. I also, for some reason, feel compelled to mention that it's nearly a year since Sergei Shoigu was one or more of dead, fired, plotting a coup, executed and having multiple heart attacks. Multiple times, for some of them. I think we can take the same rumours about Prigozhin/ Kadyrov etc with... a moderately large amount of skepticism.

13.9% finished per the achievement for doing so. Though I also have 2.1 and 3.7% for Pathetic/ Playful rather than 2 and 3. Number of players shouldn't make a difference from Steam, if everything else was equal. The two big potential differences is that GOG probably has a more, hmm, committed user base but also doesn't force you to use Galaxy- and if you don't you show as zero achievements.

The Elephant Man is one of the very, very few films which I absolutely unreservedly loved. And the thing is, if you described it to me I would have bet pretty much anything that I'd hate it because it really ought to be pretentious, maudlin, and preachy. To be fair, it probably is all three but it's so well done I really couldn't care less.

The Russians have been attacking Bakhmut* and Vuhledar for literally months. It's no more The Big Push than Kreminna-Sviatove was the Ukrainian's Big Push, though at least that had some pro UA types saying it was. Don't think I've seen a single pro Russian who thinks The Offensive has started with... exactly what they've been doing for months beforehand. *Chasiv Yar and especially Kostiantinivka would be the key captures. If they take Chasiv Yar they get Bakhmut as a bonus anyway.

Even LEO satellites hit a resolution wall. IIRC that's with using 'tricks' like interferometry as well. It's a pretty good resolution limit but you can still get better with something closer that also doesn't have to go through so much atmosphere. That just tends to be less convenient and more prone to being shot down/ being seen as a potential act of war. The other factor is that atmosphere can scatter and absorb some EM emissions, and they tend to weaken exponentially. Being a tenth the distance in a balloon (or drone) --> 100x the signal power if I remember my 6th form physics correctly.

Far more interesting to see who, if anyone, covers it in the media, and how. Especially given their prevalence for repeating information from 'anonymous intelligence/ military insider' acritically, when they want what is being said to be true. In terms of what Hersch says... there really isn't anything at all concrete. It probably was the US (or proxy) and always was due to who could do it and who benefited, and the scenario is plausible, but that's all. Balkans or South Europe. East <-- former eastern bloc for most. Though that certainly isn't an absolute designation. Ramzan's a poor man's replacement for Zhiro when it comes to sabre rattling.

There is no box that can hold me. Suggesting to eastern Euros that their views are informed by Russia will always risk a strong emotional response. Far more so than suggesting to me that I'm a Russian shill. 19/20 that would elicit the equivalent of the rolled eyes emoji, just far more verbose on the occasions I don't have my impulse control dialed up. And the 20th time it's the rolled eye emoji with an equally long winded equivalent of "you disingenuous knob" tacked on. I can see chilloutman's point, far too often people's genuine beliefs are dismissed as actually being someone else's- Russian, or Chinese or whatever- because that's way easier and safer for the person making the accusation than trying to address those beliefs. I don't for a second think it was intended that way this time though, it was clearly just shorthand because a more accurate explanation would make a long post even longer. (Gotta say, pity oby or LoF aren't around still, their opinions would really get some people's knickers knotted. Funnily enough I did defend them against accusations of being Russian shills. Because it was obvious they were just baseline trolling westlings with bad impulse control rather than believing or being paid for what they were saying)

It reducing symptoms/ effects is why the infectivity period is shorter (essentially, less severe symptoms --> less time coughing etc and faster recovery). The vaccines don't have much effectiveness at stopping mild infections, but then mild infections are pretty much just the sniffles. They are very effective at stopping death and hospitalisation though which is important for a properly functioning health system and so you don't get the early pandemic scenes per Italy, New York or Britain of oldies being left to die at home because the system simply couldn't cope. That also saves a lot of money, a lot of money. There is plenty to dislike about the vaccines/ general response to covid, vaccine efficacy isn't one of them though.

Wonder how (if) they've solved the ammunition problem for the Leopard 1s. Pretty meh anyway, not only are they old but they have the exact same problem the Leo2s had in Syria- ready use ammo stored in the turret -->-->--> and that was with no artillery to deal with, better armour, and vs mostly 70s era ATGMs instead of modern ones.

I actually haven't seen the original so cannot compare. Sometimes feel like I'm the only person on the planet who hasn't.

I watched the new Avatar last week. First movie I've actually seen in a theatre since, uh, The Force Awakens? I think. It was OK; I wouldn't go out of my way to see it again but neither would I actively avoid it. Obviously overlong, obviously formulaic, obviously preachy and at times very, very obviously had bits stitched together from half a dozen other (mostly but not all James Cameron; he obviously loved Whale Rider, and not just because he cast Cliff Curtis in this movie) movies but I expected most of that and for what it was it was done well. Replete with plot holes (hello- or goodbye- disappearing green navi in final battle) but I was kind of expecting that too. My nephews seemed to really enjoy it though, and they're a lot closer to the target audience than I am. Load of young kids in the theatre and I was kind of surprised only one skipped out on one particular scene.

Well yeah, with 6-800k troops Ukraine could at least theoretically lose 20-25% of them and still have a functioning army. Per Milley and von der Leyen they've lost 100k+ and still have a functioning army, and they have clearly had significant losses way above the 18k (?) officially admitted to. But, that report doesn't do well on the smell test in any respect.

The ending is fairly easily predictable in the general sense and is near exactly the same as at least one other series* though presumably as it is for a different in universe reason. The funny thing about Netflix and its algorithm is that it almost certainly thinks my favourite stuff is like Squid Game or Bridgerton or something because I watched them over a short period; but I wouldn't actually pay a cent for either. Even though I didn't think 1899 quite worked as intended I'd still pay to watch it not quite work but with a decent amount of ambition- but The Algorithm would have counted me as one of the people who didn't complete it because I took more than a month to watch. *