Zoraptor

Since I tend to make a note of these things so know anyway, Kadyrov's last telegram (well, not like I've checked today) was a couple of days ago and was of him visiting his uncle who is in a Moscow hospital. Kind of ironic if the whole thing was a mistake from people not being able to tell two Kadyrov's apart, though to be fair they do look pretty similar. Not independently dated, but it adequately explains all the signs people were quoting, like Chechen cars at the hospital. Most of the major search engines will do a news search for 'Ramzan Kadyrov' absolutely fine.

Eh, it's obvious why the ANC takes that view though and we've been through it before. The US opposed them and labelled them terrorists- and in 2003 Nelson Mandela was still labelled one by the US- the Soviets (--> Russia) supported them. And from a non western perspective Iraq looked like blatant neocolonialism. You're never going to get much support for western imperial adventures from the prior victims of those adventures same as you aren't going to get Latvians cheerleading Putin any time soon but will get them cheerleading the US in Iraq. (It's equally obvious why for a westerner when it's their sides doing things everything that goes wrong is an honest but tragic mistake, their precise strikes accidentally kill civilians cause collateral damage, and they only invade when threatened beyond limits to protect themselves and others in what were really selfless acts of purest Love and Compassion. Because otherwise you voted for leaders who are murderers and are by extension murderers yourself. Indeed, it's extremely funny when it's the same person saying how superior democracy is but disavowing any responsibility for it doing bad things yet also saying Russia's a dictatorship but its people are somehow responsible for their unelected tyrant)

There's a full 1.63 offline installer, and a few patches there for me.

The only concrete fact around nukes is that the same number have been used in the Congo as in Ukraine, zero. (it's actually a pretty good example of the fundamental problem Euros have convincing the rest of the world though. Obviously there's concern about nuclear weapons potentially being used and it's genuine, but try convincing someone in New Delhi that a purely hypothetical threat to some rich white people 5000 miles away should be a concern and you won't make much headway as you- basically- have to convince them both that it will happen and happen in such a way that it will effect them. Otherwise... I guess they might go as far as tweeting #StopPutler2023, for all the good that'd do)

There was no 'stopping', Armenia has never recognised Artsakh as independent. If anyone 'stopped' that it was the Turks. Ironic of course, given Cyprus, but then that just reinforced that a 1915 repeat was certainly within Turkey's capabilities, in both meanings of the term. (Armenia's position has always been that it 'should' (have) be(en) part of Armenia in the first place under the soviets. Which it should have along with Nakhichevan, but wasn't. Once the Azeris have ethnically cleansed Artsakh they'll move on to creating a corridor through to that exclave, or at least try to. Nothing more certain under the sun)

Doubt strikes on infrastructure mean much in that regard. If anything it's more leverage- see NATO switching to destroying Yugoslav infrastructure in 1999, which ended up working when destroying military targets failed. There's been plenty of back room diplomacy going on without being (much) publicised anyway and that's unlikely to stop. Though how much either side actually wants a solution at this point is a very open question. Meh, the point is pretty obvious. Sure, people in the west don't care about Congo because it's in Africa and far away and they face no consequences of it. There's no problems with that per se, that's just how people work*. If you spent your time crying for everyone in the world's conflicts you'd be quite literally perpetually devastated. But if that's the argument you [general you, not specific] can't then turn around and throw a wobbly when someone a long way away doesn't care enough about Ukraine. If it's fine for Euros not to care much about a local conflict in far off Africa for those reasons then it's fine for someone outside Europe not to care much about a local conflict in far off Europe, for exactly the same reasons. Indeed, given how much Europe/ the west has managed to asterisk up the rest of the world they're pretty lucky they aren't actively laughed at for crying when the boot is on the other foot, for once. *and to be frank, indifference is far better than those forms of caring that are predominantly used just to make the 'carer' feel great about themselves for a bit- see #StopKony2012 (and yes he's still going, 11 years later) and most other kinds of slacktivism. In the end that's just getting your jollies from someone else's tragedy.

And I'd agree, most people don't defend the US. That itself isn't the point though- they also aren't expected to say how bad the US is before saying anything critical of Russia (or ISIS, per the previous example). Very often that isn't the case when it comes to saying anything critical of Ukraine though, then some people want everything to come with a disclaimer about Russia being worse. (generally that sort of thing forms what I tend to call the Pinochet defence: yeah maybe Pinochet did some bad things. But Pinochet wasn't a bad guy compared to... Stalin! Stalin was a communist, Pinochet was anti communist. He might have done some bad things but he wouldn't have, had communism not existed. If the communists had got in things would have been worse! Now, after those facts why are you criticising Pinochet without acknowledging that he only did stuff to protect people from communism and without saying how much worse Stalin was? It's a nice rhetorical construct especially if you're Margaret Thatcher, but Pinochet was still a bad guy whatever Stalin did. much like Russian bot accusations, it's not like I really care since I tend to take people resorting to rhetorical constructs like that as, for want of a better term, a 'win'. It's just the sort of things that has tended to gum up other forums and the like and isn't really designed to be even slightly constructive; more to just get the target to shut up) I promise I will get around to reading Birnam Wood at some point.

Russia is not a security partner and ally of Artsakh. Armenia itself doesn't recognise Artsakh* as independent either. If they wanted Russian help they probably shouldn't have spent the last 7 years slagging them off in the hope of joining NATO- one of the most staggering stupid geopolitical stances of all time given that Turkey is a member with veto powers on matters of accession. Pashinyan is quite possibly even dumber than Sakashvili and that's really saying something. Basically their only hope is, well, Iran who doesn't want a Greater Turkey stretching from the Black to Caspian Seas. *Much like Crimea, Artsakh/ N-G should have had a referendum on independence after the USSR split up since it was in the soviet constitution that autonomous oblasts get one if their parent SSR leaves. It might even get one, once all the Armenians there have been liquidated.

The indifference accusation is incredibly rich, really. I'd bet most people aren't even aware what the conflict is that has killed the most people in the 21st century- it isn't Iraq, or Syria, or Ukraine. The only way the vast majority of people would notice would (have) be(en) if the the coltan spigot had got turned off and their iPhones started costing $100 more. Of course, that was a long way away from Europe or the US, so why should you care... now anyone care to guess how much further away from Europe/ Ukraine New Zealand is? Given your history not exactly surprising most of the world actually does view your local troubles with supreme indifference. I'm not obligated to 'care' about the serried ranks of glorious blue eyed Ukrainians fighting off Sauron's minions in a struggle of pure light versus utter darkness; you're not obligated to care about a few million poor bastard(s) getting blatted so you can buy cheap electronics. Things will be far better once that's accepted because the Cope is extraordinarily repetitive and very, very boring. (Never understood some people's need to have everything presaged with "Russia bad because Ukraine invasion". Especially since everyone knows that they'd blow a gasket if asked to presage everything with: "US/ NATO/ West bad because Iraq invasion" next step:

Problem with argument is that it's kind of... specious. And never gets applied evenhandedly. Consider: "I've never understood the big concern over whether something got blown up by ISIS or the US. Whether it was an ISIS or US attack doesn't change the fact that ISIS wouldn't exist without the US invasion of Iraq so blame wise it's all on the US anyway". A great argument for rhetoric, and for generating butthurt among certain people; not so great for anything else. But it too is the logical progression of "everything is [originator's] fault". That argument has also been extensively used to excuse probable Ukrainian war crimes when it quite specifically cannot be used that way, and also whenever Ukraine has been caught gilding the lily ("Ukraine wouldn't have to lie if Russia didn't invade!") In this case it's precisely Ukraine gilding the lily which is most significant- it was extremely unlikely to be a deliberate act either way whoever did it- and some of the more intemperate and knee jerk remarks from those whose job it is to do and know better.

I'm sure all the dead Armenians will die glad in the knowledge the EU's thoughts and prayers were with them.

That always looked like a Ukrainian hit. Even had stridently pro Ukrainian people like Roepke saying it. Funny how the first version of the video was 'doctored by Russians' when that reflection got noticed since it (and the later actually doctored version) was released by Zelensky himself.

I've never seen a Storm Shadow do the sort of damage you'd expect from a 450kg warhead, if you compare it to the HE Kalibr or Tomahawk. IIRC its warhead only has ?100kg? of actual explosive since it's designed as a bunker buster.

For some things that would definitely make sense, but everyone already knows where that sub is and you can easily infer where the picture was taken from by what isn't pixelated. That leaves metadata and you aren't going to last long if you're leaving that intact. Could be for suppressing any damage to the dry dock itself, but that doesn't seem too likely.

I've eaten durian, biggest nothingburger of a controversial foodstuff ever so far as I'm concerned*. The texture is reminiscent of cold snot so not exactly the best but otherwise it was... ok. Would eat again, wouldn't go out of my way for it and very far from the most disturbing thing I ate in Bali (which was a plate of frogs legs. Not like the french ones which are big, but about a thousand tiny little frogs they'd obviously netted out of a paddy field. Tasted excellent, but far too many and they looked extraordinarily disturbing all tangled up in a big pile) *the locals absolutely loved the stuff though, and most of the tourists hated it.

Well, the best filter for rumours is the same as the best filter for facts: that which is asserted without evidence can also be dismissed without evidence. I'd say that the vast majority of those sort of rumours are just made up for clicks (and often circlejerked into 'facts'). In this case it doesn't even really need that filter. If Kadyrov isn't in a coma any rumours that rely on that as a basis aren't likely to be true either.

There's a video of Kadyrov walking around on his tiktok telegram channel from today- or yesterday, Chechen time. It matches Grozny's weather since it's raining on the video, while Moscow had only scattered clouds. As always it's possible it's faked in some way, but far more likely it isn't.

Looked pretty lively for a coma today. (Both sides' prognostications on the others' health have been like a reverse Dead Parrot Sketch where Shoigu/ Gerasimov/ Kadyrov/ Putin/ Budanov really were just pining for the fjords. If only Monty Python did a sketch where someone wasn't actually dead, real missed opportunity as I could have used that instead.)

Andriivka is even smaller than Robotyne- population: 71 (2001, so very likely even less than given Robotyne's population dropped by 80% since 2001). Combining the Ukrainian and Russian numbers you'd be looking at having ~7000 soldiers there. Or to put it another way, at the same soldier density Bakhmut would have had seven million soldiers present instead of maybe 100k tops across the entire front. It's also been recaptured multiple times before, starting back in July. Klishcheeva might be more significant and is a decent bit larger, but then that's also been recaptured multiple times too.

Russia doesn't have 100k troops around Robotyne/ Rabotino*, nor does Ukraine have 65k. Maybe 15k each in the whole Vremetsky Ridge area, and that's pushing it. Nobody forced Ukraine to make hopelessly overoptimistic estimates of progress, that they did to themselves. *Robotyne had a population of 74 in 2015. No typo, miles of article space and prognostications of imminent success really was dedicated to taking a village of seventy four people... Ukraine's managed to shut down the Kerch Bridge rail link even short term only once, when it blew up that Azeri truck driver. You remember, the one you insisted was a Russian false flag even after Ukraine admitted it was them. Every other time it hasn't been shut down at all, or only for a few hours. The Kilo is literally a 43 year old design. With 63 other members of its class. They've no shortage of platforms to launch Kalibrs from and- at least according to Ukraine- most (and usually all or almost all) of them are shot down anyway. According to Ukraine itself it's militarily insignificant.

US is sending cluster munitions specifically because they've run out of conventional 155mm shells (source eg but there are a ton of others and iirc it was officially stated multiple times as the reason). There's plenty more examples from other countries not being able to source enough ammunition too (eg Germany begging Brazil for 105mm shells for Leo1s). That will of course be 'run out' as in they don't want to dip below whatever critical reserve level they have set up for themselves, and there will be some level of self justification/ excuse making for sending cluster munitions with a 20% failure rate per their own congressional investigation that most of its partners (and actual US law) regard as illegal (for export); but there's been enough begging for conventional ammo from other sources like Brazil and South Korea plus complaints from Ukraine to strongly suggest that it's a real rather than, uh, manufactured shortage. Russia being able to outproduce the west in practice is at least plausible. They make vast amounts of fertiliser and have a lot of mineral resources, in the end it isn't that hard to manufacture either explosives or munitions if you've got those two. The west could of course ramp up production to completely flood whatever Russia can make alone, but that costs money and whenever the war ends the factories will end up sitting idle again which costs more money.

Well yeah, hard to take either claim seriously when they're saying the exact opposite things- since pretty obviously someone is lying. Or mistaken, but at this point there's been so much inconsistency I tend to think that Eop's Law has to apply. Not going to be holding my breath waiting for the media to bring up the inconsistency though. I bet both stories bring the clicks.

Watched the first episode of the other new Walking Dead spin off. Pretty decent, apart from the extraordinarily naff name. Plus, actual factual France. And if you're in France you might as well prove it by having your title character walk across a jolly big roman aqueduct the Pont du Gard.

Dry docks themselves are easy to repair since they are, basically, just a big terraced concrete basin that is fundamentally hard to damage and easy to repair with a door at one (or both) end(s)- and this wasn't HMS Cambeltown ramming the gates at St Nazaire while packed full of explosives. The issue would more likely be if any vessels in them were damaged enough to be irrecoverable then they'd have to be scrapped in situ or repaired enough to refloat either of which ties them up for a decent period of time to no actual benefit. Either way the only actual significance is the sub getting hit, and that's pretty minor if they aren't actually going to/ don't need to sink vessels going to Ukraine. At this point the landing ship is completely irrelevant. ... and I guess it shows how well the 'counter'offensive is going since at least in theory it's Ukraine blowing up a dock they were meant to be reclaiming imminently.

There's definitely a US league, though I know nothing about it nor about streaming or other options in the US. Think the US has a bit more emphasis on the 7s, since that's an Olympic sport and the US were champions and undefeated at the Olympics for 84 years. Otherwise there's a load of regional/ national club championships like Super Rugby for Aus/ NZ/ Pacific islands or Pro14/ URC for Europe. We did win our last WC in 2015, so it's been a bit less than 20 years. The serious answer is that back then we had a bunch of all time great players and we don't now; and they haven't changed coaching 'style*' in nearly 20 years so have been well and truly worked out. Indeed, we were well and truly worked out in 2019 and got absolutely smashed by England as a result. Realistically, 4th best team at the tournament behind South Africa, France and Ireland and that's that. *ie they've successively picked the previous coach's assistant as their successor. Last one was a beauty, since Foster had a mediocre coaching record as head coach and we'd lost badly in 2019 in part due to the coaching style being the same as in 2008. But the poor confused old chaps couldn't understand the guy who'd coached three winning domestic sides in a row (now 7; and maybe once had the best team on paper). Then six months ago they decided to appoint him, leaving Foster understandably peeved about being effectively sacked before the World Cup. Coincidentally, we got a report this week saying rugby here is run by a bunch of incompetents, no clue what they based that on. Maybe they didn't like pink gins and ladies, a plate please?