Ukraine Redux

[obyknven]

 

Oby here are real facts that since Russia invaded Crimea the Russian economy has been badly effected... your credit ratings have tumbled,your main stock market index has fallen by roughly 20% and your currency has hit historic lows against the dollar. No matter what you pretend to believe whenever the West gets hit hard economically because of Crimea Russia gets hit twice as hard

 

http://www.foxbusiness.com/economy-policy/2014/03/20/sp-cuts-outlook-on-russia-to-negative/

 

http://money.cnn.com/2014/03/17/news/economy/russia-crimea-sanctions/index.html

 

http://news.yahoo.com/fitch-downgrades-russia-outlook-negative-over-ukraine-crisis-064301757.html;_ylt=A0LEVx.mDCxTljwAMKVXNyoA;_ylu=X3oDMTEzbThmbm1hBHNlYwNzcgRwb3MDNARjb2xvA2JmMQR2dGlkA1NNRTM4OV8x

 

>>FOX, CNN real facts.

 

Good joke!

[213374U]

Oby here are real facts that since Russia invaded Crimea the Russian economy has been badly effected... your credit ratings have tumbled,your main stock market index has fallen by roughly 20% and your currency has hit historic lows against the dollar. No matter what you pretend to believe whenever the West gets hit hard economically because of Crimea Russia gets hit twice as hard

 

http://www.foxbusiness.com/economy-policy/2014/03/20/sp-cuts-outlook-on-russia-to-negative/

 

http://money.cnn.com/2014/03/17/news/economy/russia-crimea-sanctions/index.html

 

http://news.yahoo.com/fitch-downgrades-russia-outlook-negative-over-ukraine-crisis-064301757.html;_ylt=A0LEVx.mDCxTljwAMKVXNyoA;_ylu=X3oDMTEzbThmbm1hBHNlYwNzcgRwb3MDNARjb2xvA2JmMQR2dGlkA1NNRTM4OV8x

 

Though I agree that in today's economy sanctions are going to hit everyone and not only the recipient,  the links you posted don't really support what you are saying. Private rating agencies have a proven track record of inaccuracy with regards to their predictions and their credit ratings are rather laughable. The other link just tells the story of travel bans and asset freezes of some of Putin's collaborators. No hard economic figures anywhere. Heavily financialized economies such as the US are going to be more vulnerable to geopolitical instability, too.

 

 

All wars boil down to the same - convincing people that violence is the answer to their problems. Convincing them that they are in danger (moral, cultural, physical, economical), their self-interest and protective impulses channeled outwards will do the rest.

 

The greatest of crimes are committed with people thinking them for the good. Justifications differ. Explanations differ. But in it's core it's all the same.

All wars are nothing but a litany of excuses and smokescreens. Nationalism, religion - those things are not at the core.

 

"[...] the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country." 

 

— Hermann Göring, 1946                    

 

 

Unfortunately, the current climate of political apathy, devaluation of civic virtue and disappearance of critical thinking in the general populace only makes that sort of shepherding easier.

                

Edited March 21, 2014 by 213374U

[Sarex]

Are you saying that it's impossible for Serbs to be zealots? Or that it's impossible for a granny to hold a gun?

 

I'm saying that your claims are ridiculous, grannies holding guns and fighting? And I'm sure we had some zealots, but so did you, in every war you have zealots.

 

 

Not even close. And it's damn poor at history and political/social sciences, because they are everything but simple.

 

 

But you want people to believe, that Serbs went and killed their own people to force them out of Croatia. It sure as hell ain't that either. It's obvious to anyone, that Operation Storm had everything to do with the ethnic cleansing of Serbs.

 

 

You again like to ignore the links and black on white.

Go ahead and claim that wikipedia lies about everything.

 

I asked you to provide a number of Serbian court cases. Provide SOMETHING.

 

The simple fact that you refuse to provide any link for that statement all this time shows that you lied about it or that you simply cannot find any information to corroborate it and so were lied to. Be aware that I asked for any link you could find, that includes wiki.

 

I never claimed that we jailed anyone, while you claim 2400 Croats were convicted. Show proof! That kind of thing should be easy to find, if true.

 

 

And you have been proven wrong on all of it, but you refuse to believe.

 

Despite video evidence. Despite black-on-white papers. Despite your own president confirming it.

JNA was in Croatia. Fighting. It was in Knin. It was in Vukovar. During the entire war.

JNA tanks. JNA aircraft. JNA ships. JNA soldiers. All in Croatia, long after independance was declared.

 

 

Any further discussion is pointless.

 

I addressed Milosevics statement. You showed no video evidence. I didn't deny Vukovar. YNA was not in Croatia after it declare independence, you showed no proof to indicate otherwise.

 

 

I could be using feces and it would still be a million years ahead of your posts.

 

Eloquent to say the least.

 

 

edit: While searching for you "convicted" Croats found this article, http://edition.cnn.com/2013/05/29/world/europe/netherlands-balkans-sentencing

Edited March 21, 2014 by Sarex

[BruceVC]

 

Oby here are real facts that since Russia invaded Crimea the Russian economy has been badly effected... your credit ratings have tumbled,your main stock market index has fallen by roughly 20% and your currency has hit historic lows against the dollar. No matter what you pretend to believe whenever the West gets hit hard economically because of Crimea Russia gets hit twice as hard

 

http://www.foxbusiness.com/economy-policy/2014/03/20/sp-cuts-outlook-on-russia-to-negative/

 

http://money.cnn.com/2014/03/17/news/economy/russia-crimea-sanctions/index.html

 

http://news.yahoo.com/fitch-downgrades-russia-outlook-negative-over-ukraine-crisis-064301757.html;_ylt=A0LEVx.mDCxTljwAMKVXNyoA;_ylu=X3oDMTEzbThmbm1hBHNlYwNzcgRwb3MDNARjb2xvA2JmMQR2dGlkA1NNRTM4OV8x

 

Though I agree that in today's economy sanctions are going to hit everyone and not only the recipient,  the links you posted don't really support what you are saying. Private rating agencies have a proven track record of inaccuracy with regards to their predictions and their credit ratings are rather laughable. The other link just tells the story of travel bans and asset freezes of some of Putin's collaborators. No hard economic figures anywhere. Heavily financialized economies such as the US are going to be more vulnerable to geopolitical instability, too.

 

 

                

 

 

2133 please don't be lazy, all you need to do is Google "Russian Index loses 20 %" or do some similar search. I can't spoon- feed you

 

So what I'm saying is irrefutable fact, the Russian economy has suffered since the Crimean invasion for a  variety of reasons, but suffering it still is

[obyknven]

 

2133 please don't be lazy, all you need to do is Google "Russian Index loses 20 %" or do some similar search. I can't spoon- feed you

 

So what I'm saying is irrefutable fact, the Russian economy has suffered since the Crimean invasion for a  variety of reasons, but suffering it still is

 

>> "Russian Index loses 20 %"

>> Market Bears activity

>> Party of Bears buy everything

 

You can't into markets, stop repeat media nonsenses.

[Sarex]

2133 please don't be lazy, all you need to do is Google "Russian Index loses 20 %" or do some similar search. I can't spoon- feed you

 

So what I'm saying is irrefutable fact, the Russian economy has suffered since the Crimean invasion for a  variety of reasons, but suffering it still is

 

All of Asia experienced a drop, India was hit the hardest. This started rolling before Crimea.

[213374U]

2133 please don't be lazy, all you need to do is Google "Russian Index loses 20 %" or do some similar search. I can't spoon- feed you

 

So what I'm saying is irrefutable fact, the Russian economy has suffered since the Crimean invasion for a  variety of reasons, but suffering it still is

 

Right. If it's so easy, then why didn't you post relevant links instead of the ones you did? It's not spoon-feeding, rather it's you expecting me to do your homework.

 

But hey, why the hell not.

 

Googling "Russian Index loses 20%" returns this: 

 

"Russia’s Micex stock market falls 3.5% at open, RTS down 4.3%"

 

So, yeah. Nowhere near your original claims. Problem with this sort of hyperbole is that oby is affirmed, i.e. "you can't into markets".

[Hassat Hunter]

Just read that a leadup is made for Ukrain to join the EU.

 

I just hate it when I am right. Greece+... sure, we got billions more to waste. We're like the US government here after all...

Default? What's a default?

 

Who cares about Russia when the West does it's best to destroy itself from the inside, while trying to police the world instead of doing something about that.

Edited March 21, 2014 by Hassat Hunter

[Rostere]

From 22 Oct 2013 to 14 Mar 2014, the DJ Russia GDR index dropped by about 30%, the (slim) majority of that took place during the Crimea crisis. The last few days it has regained almost 7% percentage points compared to the situation in October though. The sharpest drop took place immediately before the US announced their "sanctions". I'd say the Russian economy looks to be on the way down regardless of the Crimea situation, which has probably at most contributed to 10-15% percentage points of the total drop from October last year.

 

Once again however: Russia would be hit hardest by sanctions, by any simple model at least. If we assume no part gains more than the other from trade (i.e., no part is buying/selling at robbery rates) then both will be hit equally hard in absolute numbers. However, since the economy of the EU and the US is so much larger than Russia's - about 16 to 17 times - the relative damage done would be much smaller. I know comparisons like these can be hard to visualize for your intuition. One way of doing it is thinking that the EU/US economy is an adult African elephant, and the Russian economy is an adult Mediterranean monk seal (two animals which have roughly the same weight ratio as the GDP ratio between the EU+US and Russia). Now imagine that you take away the same absolute amount of mass from their food (both eat roughly 5% of their body weight in a day). Both would be hungry, but one might starve. You can also make a comparison with giving them the same volume of some poison (lethality is often roughly proportional to body mass)(if the PETA is not watching).

[Hassat Hunter]

Russia is a country... the EU isn't.

I bet most EU-members (if not all) have economies way smaller than Russia...

Edited March 21, 2014 by Hassat Hunter

[Valsuelm]

Ayup, they do.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_%28nominal%29

 

Not that these numbers really mean all that much in regards to sanctions except to partially point out that Russia is one of the nations on earth that can self sustain if need be.

 

Not only that though, Russia isn't playing the great 'central banking / convert our nations into fiefdoms based on debt slavery' game that the Europeans and the U.S. are anywhere near as much as those pulling the strings in the EU and the U.S. would like. Which not only shows how little Russia is under their thumb and how little sanctions will likely matter, but also how good a position Russia is to thumb their nose at the Euro and Dollar.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt

 

Any sanctions probably will hurt the west in the long run more than Russia, as they will just push Russia even more in the direction of dropping the Euro and Dollar all together. Whether they do or don't though they are downright stupid. Sanctions on Russia over this is pretty much the equivalent of a prepubescent spite over not getting their way, and will have about the equivalent outcome such spite generally does.

Edited March 21, 2014 by Valsuelm

[Tagaziel]

Russia is a country... the EU isn't.

I bet most EU-members (if not all) have economies way smaller than Russia...

The EU is a single market, that's what counts. The total economic size of the EU is number one in the world.

[Agiel]

From 22 Oct 2013 to 14 Mar 2014, the DJ Russia GDR index dropped by about 30%, the (slim) majority of that took place during the Crimea crisis. The last few days it has regained almost 7% percentage points compared to the situation in October though. The sharpest drop took place immediately before the US announced their "sanctions". I'd say the Russian economy looks to be on the way down regardless of the Crimea situation, which has probably at most contributed to 10-15% percentage points of the total drop from October last year.

 

Once again however: Russia would be hit hardest by sanctions, by any simple model at least. If we assume no part gains more than the other from trade (i.e., no part is buying/selling at robbery rates) then both will be hit equally hard in absolute numbers. However, since the economy of the EU and the US is so much larger than Russia's - about 16 to 17 times - the relative damage done would be much smaller. I know comparisons like these can be hard to visualize for your intuition. One way of doing it is thinking that the EU/US economy is an adult African elephant, and the Russian economy is an adult Mediterranean monk seal (two animals which have roughly the same weight ratio as the GDP ratio between the EU+US and Russia). Now imagine that you take away the same absolute amount of mass from their food (both eat roughly 5% of their body weight in a day). Both would be hungry, but one might starve. You can also make a comparison with giving them the same volume of some poison (lethality is often roughly proportional to body mass)(if the PETA is not watching).

 

Plus there's the fact that though the EU needs energy, energy is all Russia has to give, as attempts to diversify have largely fallen flat. Though the 30% of energy that usually comes from Russia lost will be quite a loss, (relatively) short term alternatives exist for the EU.

Edited March 21, 2014 by Agiel

[Hassat Hunter]

Germany or France may be able to take the reducement of power (since they produce the most in the EU)... but what about, say, the already faltering southern countries.

 

It's really bad to think of the individual countries as the EU and base potential losses on that since the differences inbetween countries is gigantic.

[pmp10]

Just read that a leadup is made for Ukrain to join the EU.

 

I just hate it when I am right. Greece+... sure, we got billions more to waste. We're like the US government here after all...

Default? What's a default?

 

Who cares about Russia when the West does it's best to destroy itself from the inside, while trying to police the world instead of doing something about that.

Nobody will accept Ukraine into EU in its current shape.

It would take years of work before that state will be stable enough to be a candidate for EU or NATO.

There is no way to know if it won't self-destruct, go bankrupt or swing back to Moscow within that time.

[Tagaziel]

Nobody will accept Ukraine into EU in its current shape.

It would take years of work before that state will be stable enough to be a candidate for EU or NATO.

There is no way to know if it won't self-destruct, go bankrupt or swing back to Moscow within that time.

It's a good thing they signed an Association Agreement, then, rather than starting the process of joining the European Union. Joining it is a very long term goal for Ukraine, but one it seems willing to carry out... For now.

 

As for the sanctions and energy, the real problem is going to be in the Baltic area, where most countries rely on Russian imports of energy (and which have the most motivation to drift away from it).

[kgambit]

 

From 22 Oct 2013 to 14 Mar 2014, the DJ Russia GDR index dropped by about 30%, the (slim) majority of that took place during the Crimea crisis. The last few days it has regained almost 7% percentage points compared to the situation in October though. The sharpest drop took place immediately before the US announced their "sanctions". I'd say the Russian economy looks to be on the way down regardless of the Crimea situation, which has probably at most contributed to 10-15% percentage points of the total drop from October last year.

 

Once again however: Russia would be hit hardest by sanctions, by any simple model at least. If we assume no part gains more than the other from trade (i.e., no part is buying/selling at robbery rates) then both will be hit equally hard in absolute numbers. However, since the economy of the EU and the US is so much larger than Russia's - about 16 to 17 times - the relative damage done would be much smaller. I know comparisons like these can be hard to visualize for your intuition. One way of doing it is thinking that the EU/US economy is an adult African elephant, and the Russian economy is an adult Mediterranean monk seal (two animals which have roughly the same weight ratio as the GDP ratio between the EU+US and Russia). Now imagine that you take away the same absolute amount of mass from their food (both eat roughly 5% of their body weight in a day). Both would be hungry, but one might starve. You can also make a comparison with giving them the same volume of some poison (lethality is often roughly proportional to body mass)(if the PETA is not watching).

 

Plus there's the fact that though the EU needs energy, energy is all Russia has to give, as attempts to diversify have largely fallen flat. Though the 30% of energy that usually comes from Russia lost will be quite a loss, (relatively) short term alternatives exist for the EU.

 

 

Nice summary Ros.  Here are links to the RTS, MICEX and the GDR (select the 1Y charts)

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/RTSI$:IND

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/INDEXCF:IND

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/RUS:IM

 

 

 

Here's an interesting article about the Russian oil and gas industry.

 

http://www.aei.org/outlook/foreign-and-defense-policy/regional/europe/the-political-economy-of-russian-oil-and-gas/

 

It does an excellent job of laying out exactly how dependent Russia's economy and budget are on sales to Europe.   

 

and just for grins:

 

 

 Caption: Your credit card has been blocked: to Putin holding packages labelled Crimea, Kharkiv and Donestsk (from Navalny web site)

[Hassat Hunter]

That's why I said "leadup"... since it's a leadup.

And any SANE person wouldn't... but do you know the EU?

[HoonDing]

She may be a Russian plant, but Natalya is hot. Long live Crimea!!

[Elerond]

Ukraine's way to EU is currently much longer than Turkey's which have tried to get membership now over 15 years, so from that perspective we speak that Ukraine could possibility to join EU in 2030, after very major economical, social and political reforms. And it can be even harder process after Greek's fiasco and problems with Romania's and Bulgaria's integration to union.

[Mor]

Sanctions: Potential economic damage

Russia, already teetering on the edge of recession, has a lot to lose from any economic sanctions imposed by Europe and the US - as does Europe, experts say.

...

There have been talks in the upper house of Russia's parliament to allow property and assets of foreign businesses to be seized in the event of international sanctions.

The talk of foreign businesses seizure is such a wrong move  it is the opposite of what you want in such scenario ..

Edited March 22, 2014 by Mor

[BruceVC]

 

 

From 22 Oct 2013 to 14 Mar 2014, the DJ Russia GDR index dropped by about 30%, the (slim) majority of that took place during the Crimea crisis. The last few days it has regained almost 7% percentage points compared to the situation in October though. The sharpest drop took place immediately before the US announced their "sanctions". I'd say the Russian economy looks to be on the way down regardless of the Crimea situation, which has probably at most contributed to 10-15% percentage points of the total drop from October last year.

 

Once again however: Russia would be hit hardest by sanctions, by any simple model at least. If we assume no part gains more than the other from trade (i.e., no part is buying/selling at robbery rates) then both will be hit equally hard in absolute numbers. However, since the economy of the EU and the US is so much larger than Russia's - about 16 to 17 times - the relative damage done would be much smaller. I know comparisons like these can be hard to visualize for your intuition. One way of doing it is thinking that the EU/US economy is an adult African elephant, and the Russian economy is an adult Mediterranean monk seal (two animals which have roughly the same weight ratio as the GDP ratio between the EU+US and Russia). Now imagine that you take away the same absolute amount of mass from their food (both eat roughly 5% of their body weight in a day). Both would be hungry, but one might starve. You can also make a comparison with giving them the same volume of some poison (lethality is often roughly proportional to body mass)(if the PETA is not watching).

 

Plus there's the fact that though the EU needs energy, energy is all Russia has to give, as attempts to diversify have largely fallen flat. Though the 30% of energy that usually comes from Russia lost will be quite a loss, (relatively) short term alternatives exist for the EU.

 

 

Nice summary Ros.  Here are links to the RTS, MICEX and the GDR (select the 1Y charts)

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/RTSI$:IND

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/INDEXCF:IND

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/RUS:IM

 

 

 

Here's an interesting article about the Russian oil and gas industry.

 

http://www.aei.org/outlook/foreign-and-defense-policy/regional/europe/the-political-economy-of-russian-oil-and-gas/

 

It does an excellent job of laying out exactly how dependent Russia's economy and budget are on sales to Europe.   

 

and just for grins:

 

 

 Caption: Your credit card has been blocked: to Putin holding packages labelled Crimea, Kharkiv and Donestsk (from Navalny web site)

 

 

Informative links, I hope this puts to rest any further discussion that the Russian economy has been, and will continue to be,  negatively impacted by the Crimean invasion.

 

I don't want to mention any names (2133, Sarex, Oby and Valsuelm  ) but the debate around the state of the Russian economy is not subjective. Its not like we need to discuss the reasons for Putin's drive for Russian hegemony. Living in a global and interconnected world the reality of any countries economy is easy to see and its irrefutable as we have facts through websites like Bloomberg who track movements of major stock indexes

Edited March 22, 2014 by BruceVC

[Mor]

I suspect that current that the current sanctions are the tip of the iceberg, currently they are very limited and mostly effective in scaring investors in fear of future sanctions. The real effect will come from the freeze in relationship and will effect current and future project with Russian (e.g. the new black sea pipeline which had legal issue in the EU ) it might also cause NATO to react aggressively not only by bringing Sweden into the fold but go as far as helping in Georgia.

 

EDIT:

It might not help them on individual level for example you know how real champagne is suppose to be from champagne region in France, well apparently Vodka is from anywhere but Russia ( Sweden make far better one anyway )

Edited March 22, 2014 by Mor

[Tagaziel]

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/in-response-to-president-putins-address-to-the-russian-parliament

 

Thank you, UK.

[213374U]

I don't want to mention any names (2133, Sarex, Oby and Valsuelm  ) but the debate around the state of the Russian economy is not subjective. Its not like we need to discuss the reasons for Putin's drive for Russian hegemony. Living in a global and interconnected world the reality of any countries economy is easy to see and its irrefutable as we have facts through websites like Bloomberg who track movements of major stock indexes

 

If you believe that evaluating economic health is as simple as taking a quick look at DJ, I think it's safe to say that you have learned nothing from the 2007 crisis. Not that I'm surprised that you are quick to underscore the "irrefutability" of data presented that doesn't directly contradict your exaggerations and oversimplifications—it very much fits in with your offhand dismissals of anything that doesn't support your misinformed preconceptions as "extremely biased" or "propaganda", while at the same time, you have no compunctions about using similarly biased sources if it suits your purposes. The mark of a closed mind.

 

I'd suggest you begin by reading this and do some research on the points discussed in it, if you are interested in what goes on under the hood. But I doubt you are, because complex things are never really black or white, or easily summarized.

Edited March 22, 2014 by 213374U