Play Ball! the 2013 Baseball Thread

[Volourn]

Cabera is the MVP. Anyone who thinks otherwise doesn't know true baseball.

 

 

L0L WAR L0L

[kgambit]

Ummm...no.

 

A.L. WAR Bat / Pitch

  Tm WAR M.Trout LAA 9.1 J.Donaldson OAK 7.9 R.Cano NYY 7.6 M.Cabrera DET 7.1 C.Sale CHW 7.0

 

N.L. WAR Bat / Pitch

  Tm WAR C.Kershaw LAD 8.4 A.McCutchen PIT 8.0 C.Gomez MIL 8.0 C.Lee PHI 7.5 P.Goldschmidt ARI 7.1

 

AL MVP - Michael Trout and it's not even close.

NL MVP - Clayton Kershaw in a clear runaway.

 

 

 

 

Nice try but no.   

 

Trout loses on the Stat lines.  

 

Cabrera - .347 BA, 44 HR, 137 RBI     OPS+ 1.078

 

Trout - .323, 26 HR, 94 RBI    OPS+  0.985

 

In fact, Davis from Baltimore might have almost as good a claim on MVP as Trout does.   While his BA isn't as good, he simply carried Baltimore in the first half of the year.  When he slowed down, the Orioles cratered.  Trout can't make any such claim, unlike last year when he put the Angels on his back in the second half.  Should Trout have won last year?  Maybe. This year?  Not so much.   

 

 

McCutcheon is an everyday player, Kershaw isn't.  McCutcheon is still my choice.    

 

 

Should have been Max Scherzer  - not sure where I got John from.

 

Update:  Toronto beats Tampa 7-2.  Tampa and Texas tied. 

Edited September 28, 2013 by kgambit

[Keyrock]

Regardless of what stats people want to use, Trout has no chance of winning the MVP because he's on a chump team.  You pretty much have to be on a playoff team, or at least on a team that contended for playoffs right until the end, to even have a chance at MVP.

[Hurlshort]

Which makes complete sense to me, because most valuable player on a mediocre team seems a lot less important than helping to propel your team into the playoffs.

[Keyrock]

The Mariners are up 7-2 on the As.  Looks like the Sawx are going to clinch the #1 seed before they even take the field tonight.  If so, John Farrell should pull Lester after about 75 pitches, regardless of the score, and let someone like Workman pitch the rest of the game at that point.  Time to start resting guys and giving potential pinch hitters and utility guys/non-everyday players/lesser used pitchers that may make the postseason roster some at-bats/innings. 

 

Edit:  Also, The Tribe is up 5-1 in the 8th.  Looks like they're going to take over sole possession of the top wild card slot.

Edited September 28, 2013 by Keyrock

[Guard Dog]

I'm glad you guys don't live near me and could not hear me ranting and raving earlier!

[Leferd]

Actually I agree that Cabrera will win the MVP. But he's not the best player in the AL and really did not produce as many wins as Trout did for the Angels.

 

My point is that it's not as clear cut that Cabrera should win the MVP as the advanced metrics clearly state that Trout is the more valuable player - in spite of not being in a playoff contending team.

 

Intriguing piece by Rany Jazyerli on Trout and Cabrera:

 

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9715559/mike-trout-quest-mvp-great-performance-major-league

 

PS

 

Slightly off topic rant...but I really dislike OPS. OBP and SLG should not be combined together (A+B =C) and used as a stat. It greatly discounts extreme players such as (going back in history) Brett Butler or on the other side, Andre Dawson.

Edited September 28, 2013 by Leferd

[kgambit]

Actually I agree that Cabrera will win the MVP. But he's not the best player in the AL and really did not produce as many wins as Trout did for the Angels.

 

My point is that it's not as clear cut that Cabrera should win the MVP as the advanced metrics clearly state that Trout is the more valuable player - in spite of not being in a playoff contending team.

 

 

PS

 

Slightly off topic rant...but I really dislike OPS. OBP and SLG should not be combined together (A+B =C) and used as a stat. It greatly discounts extreme players such as (going back in history) Brett Butler or on the other side, Andre Dawson.

 

 

Better player and most valuable player aren't the same thing.  If we were voting on better player the answer might be different.    If we were picking one  for our team for the future, Trout wins hands down. ( jeez and he turned 22 less than two months ago!)  But MVP?  sorry .. still going with Cabrera    

 

Here are their slash lines  BA / OBP / SLG

 

Cabrera  .347/.443/.653

Trout   .330/.435/.570

 

 

And if you count actual Game winning RBIs, Cabrera beats Trout - 15 to 9

 

http://www.sportingcharts.com/mlb/stats/player-game-winning-rbis/2013/

 

 

I'm glad you guys don't live near me and could not hear me ranting and raving earlier!

 

Good thing because you wouldn't have had to listen to me after Georgia 44 - LSU 41        ##^$&%$

Edited September 29, 2013 by kgambit

[Keyrock]

There is no single stat, or even collection of stats that fully defines a player's value.  For example, you look at a guy like Johnny Gomes on the Sawx.  He's batting .244 with 13 HR and 51 RBI.  If you were to just look at those numbers and nothing else, you certainly wouldn't think "major contributor", and yet, he is.  The clutch game saving hits, the smart base running, going 1st to 3rd, harassing the pitcher while on 1st to make him throw a wild pitch or give up a hit.  Things like that don't show up in stats.

[kgambit]

There is no single stat, or even collection of stats that fully defines a player's value.  For example, you look at a guy like Johnny Gomes on the Sawx.  He's batting .244 with 13 HR and 51 RBI.  If you were to just look at those numbers and nothing else, you certainly wouldn't think "major contributor", and yet, he is.  The clutch game saving hits, the smart base running, going 1st to 3rd, harassing the pitcher while on 1st to make him throw a wild pitch or give up a hit.  Things like that don't show up in stats.

 

True.  Value extends well beyond stats.  Some guys are clubhouse poison.  Others are simply great "glue" guys.  I hated seeing Napoli leave because I thought he was one of the latter.    

[Leferd]

Have to disagree. Unlike other dynamic sports such as soccer or basketball, each singular event (pitch) in baseball is accounted for and indisputably quantifiable. It's the perfect zero sum game.

 

As such baseball is the perfect platform for metric-driven study and application. So in essence, yes there is just a way to quantify just how valuable a player is. That's the difference between Billy Beane and the Oakland Athletics winning with miniscule payrolls and the Giants just committing $90 million for an average level corner outfielder on the wrong side of 31 with nice intangibles.

 

WAR (Wins Above Replacement level) pretty much states that Trout is worth 9.1 wins above replacement level - two full wins above Cabrera's 7.1. This is accounting for offense, defense, and park factor.

[Keyrock]

Oh boy, somebody's been drinking the advanced metrics Kool-Aid.  Sure, advanced metrics can be useful, but no stat is foolproof, not in any sport.  The eyeball test is the best test, and even that isn't foolproof.

Edited September 29, 2013 by Keyrock

[Leferd]

With all due respect, the battle was waged and essentially won in 2003 by the sabremetricians. If your front office is not already on board, you better have a $200 million payroll to play with.

 

Damn straight I bought the kool-aid. Welcome to 15 years ago.

[kgambit]

So in essence, yes there is just a way to quantify just how valuable a player is.

 

Think stats can always discriminate? 

 

Who would you take?  Player A or B

 

BA / OBP / SLG / SB / R / RBI / HR

 

A)  .244 / .345 / .428 / 1 / 48 / 51 / 13       WAR = 1.1

 

B)  .273 / .353 / .430 / 13  / 74 / 57 / 18      WAR = 2.3

 

If Sabermetrics rule then it has to be player B right?

 

Player B turns out to be Alex Rodriquez 2012 .....  all 25 million dollars per year worth of him versus Johnny Gomes (player a) at 5 million a year   

 

Still think the higher WAR always trumps the lower one?  Didn't think so. 

 

Hey, no biggie.  We don't agree that's all.  I think Sabremetrics fails to value some things which are important.  That's all. 

Edited September 29, 2013 by kgambit

[Leferd]

In a vacuum, then yes, it would have to be player B is more productive than Player A. However, you would have to factor in age, park effects, and position in the absence of full information such as games played.

 

However, I can infer that Player A has excellent plate discipline. When you consider that Player A also has the same SLG as player B despite a 30 pt BA deficit, you could infer that Player A has more power (extra base hits, doubles). Those can then translate to more homers in the future. Since batting average also fluctuates from year to year, the gap can also close and player A can trump player B.

 

Sabermetrics does not remove judgement and nuance from decision making, but it can save you from spending good cash and given the data, you can predict future performance. See Nate Silver.

[Guard Dog]

 

Actually I agree that Cabrera will win the MVP. But he's not the best player in the AL and really did not produce as many wins as Trout did for the Angels.

 

My point is that it's not as clear cut that Cabrera should win the MVP as the advanced metrics clearly state that Trout is the more valuable player - in spite of not being in a playoff contending team.

 

 

PS

 

Slightly off topic rant...but I really dislike OPS. OBP and SLG should not be combined together (A+B =C) and used as a stat. It greatly discounts extreme players such as (going back in history) Brett Butler or on the other side, Andre Dawson.

 

 

Better player and most valuable player aren't the same thing.  If we were voting on better player the answer might be different.    If we were picking one  for our team for the future, Trout wins hands down. ( jeez and he turned 22 less than two months ago!)  But MVP?  sorry .. still going with Cabrera    

 

Here are their slash lines  BA / OBP / SLG

 

Cabrera  .347/.443/.653

Trout   .330/.435/.570

 

 

And if you count actual Game winning RBIs, Cabrera beats Trout - 15 to 9

 

http://www.sportingcharts.com/mlb/stats/player-game-winning-rbis/2013/

 

 

I'm glad you guys don't live near me and could not hear me ranting and raving earlier!

 

Good thing because you wouldn't have had to listen to me after Georgia 44 - LSU 41        ##^$&%$

 

Yeah, now THAT was a shocker

[Keyrock]

So, let's see if I have this correct.  Now the Rangers and Rays play a single game for the final wild card spot (a playoff to get into a playoff to get in to the playoffs, if you will), then the winner of that game plays a single game against the Indians, presumably in Cleveland.  The winner of that game plays Boston in the ALDS.  Who's hosting the Rangers/Rays game?

Edited September 30, 2013 by Keyrock

[Leferd]

Yep. That sounds right.

[Hurlshort]

So, let's see if I have this correct.  Now the Rangers and Rays play a single game for the final wild card spot (a playoff to get into a playoff to get in to the playoffs, if you will), then the winner of that game plays a single game against the Indians, presumably in Cleveland.  The winner of that game plays Boston in the ALDS.  Who's hosting the Rangers/Rays game?

 

They have to meet in the middle, so the game will take place on an oil rig in the Gulf of Mexico.

[kgambit]

So, let's see if I have this correct.  Now the Rangers and Rays play a single game for the final wild card spot (a playoff to get into a playoff to get in to the playoffs, if you will), then the winner of that game plays a single game against the Indians, presumably in Cleveland.  The winner of that game plays Boston in the ALDS.  Who's hosting the Rangers/Rays game?

 

Texas is home team.  Starting pitchers:    Perez (Tex)  versus Price (TB)

[Inyourprime]

Loria is amazing. Why would anyone buy tickets to a game, no-hitter or not, after it ends?

 

http://miami.marlins.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130930&content_id=62230650&vkey=pr_mia&c_id=mia

 

I can't bookmark the crazy things he does fast enough.

[Hurlshort]

Loria is amazing. Why would anyone buy tickets to a game, no-hitter or not, after it ends?

 

http://miami.marlins.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130930&content_id=62230650&vkey=pr_mia&c_id=mia

 

I can't bookmark the crazy things he does fast enough.

 

It's silly, but I bet some folks will buy them, which means it's a good idea from a business standpoint.

[Guard Dog]

kgambit is probably not a happy man right now. But I sure am. Great win, great performance by Price. He wasn't dominating by any means but he got outs when it was needed and going the whole 9 saved an overused pen. On to Cleveland!

[Guard Dog]

Loria is amazing. Why would anyone buy tickets to a game, no-hitter or not, after it ends?

 

http://miami.marlins.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130930&content_id=62230650&vkey=pr_mia&c_id=mia

 

I can't bookmark the crazy things he does fast enough.

That man has so poisoned the relationship between the fish and their fans there is probably no going back. I keep hoping to read that he's selling. I know Jeb Bush wanted to buy them last winter.

[Leferd]

 

Loria is amazing. Why would anyone buy tickets to a game, no-hitter or not, after it ends?

 

http://miami.marlins.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130930&content_id=62230650&vkey=pr_mia&c_id=mia

 

I can't bookmark the crazy things he does fast enough.

 

 

It's silly, but I bet some folks will buy them, which means it's a good idea from a business standpoint.

Lols. Brilliant! Just like Personal Seat Licenses.