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Swine Flu


Rosbjerg

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So we have a situation of a Human->Human transmisson .. and maybe up to thousands of infected in 3 countries (with a probability of several more)..

Containment is somewhat difficult if it's already spread across continents and since it's airborne it's even harder..

 

So, are we worried yet? or is this just a media-scare?

 

Wiki article of Swine flu

 

The US declares public health emergency

 

800px-H1N1_map.svg.png

 

* Black: confirmed deaths

* red and dark red: confirmed infections

* orange: unconfirmed infections

Fortune favors the bald.

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I wouldn't be surprised if I have swine flu. I also wouldn't be surprised if someone put on a ski mask and serially punched people in the throat at my work place either becuase I wouldn't have to deal with this crap if I was allowed to live in my cave all fraekin day like god intended. Hard to tell though. Definitely picked up something up at work but hard to decipher among the allergies, recent chronic sinus infection, recent bout of crappy sleep and the recurring headache/fever that is the norm for me.

There was a time when I questioned the ability for the schizoid to ever experience genuine happiness, at the very least for a prolonged segment of time. I am no closer to finding the answer, however, it has become apparent that contentment is certainly a realizable goal. I find these results to be adequate, if not pleasing. Unfortunately, connection is another subject entirely. When one has sufficiently examined the mind and their emotional constructs, connection can be easily imitated. More data must be gleaned and further collated before a sufficient judgment can be reached.

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This isn't a media scare. It's following exactly the same pattern as the Spanish flu which killed 50 million people (more than WW1).

 

Avian flu is bird-to-human. Swine flu is human-to-human. That's a massive difference. Moreover, normal human flu has a 5% fatality rate among hospitalised populations. This flu has a 5 to 10% mortality rate amongst ALL infected. With 8 billion people in the world, that's almost a billon potential dead if this spreads.

 

Normal flu kills elderly and children. The Spanish flu killed young and middle-aged health, fit people by triggering a cytokine storm in strong immune systems. Guess what? This flu is mainly killing healthy young people.

 

Exhibit a: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:W_curve.png

 

Oh, and did I mention we have modern air and rail systems now and far denser populations? :)

Edited by Krezack
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Good thing I'm not 25 yet.

There was a time when I questioned the ability for the schizoid to ever experience genuine happiness, at the very least for a prolonged segment of time. I am no closer to finding the answer, however, it has become apparent that contentment is certainly a realizable goal. I find these results to be adequate, if not pleasing. Unfortunately, connection is another subject entirely. When one has sufficiently examined the mind and their emotional constructs, connection can be easily imitated. More data must be gleaned and further collated before a sufficient judgment can be reached.

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Maybe we will all be walking around with those retarded looking particle masks before long.

I saw some Asian chick with one at school last week and was wondering what the hell was going on. Makes sense now I suppose.

There was a time when I questioned the ability for the schizoid to ever experience genuine happiness, at the very least for a prolonged segment of time. I am no closer to finding the answer, however, it has become apparent that contentment is certainly a realizable goal. I find these results to be adequate, if not pleasing. Unfortunately, connection is another subject entirely. When one has sufficiently examined the mind and their emotional constructs, connection can be easily imitated. More data must be gleaned and further collated before a sufficient judgment can be reached.

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I'm about as scared as I was when China had the SARS scare. Someday a fairly literal human-wiping pandemic may occur, but I don't think this is the one. It's not fast enough and its mortality rate isn't high enough.

 

But it does make me glad I'm not in school/work in an office. :p

Maybe Michael Jackson will soon experience a resurgence of popularity as a fashion trendsetter/designer.

Edited by LadyCrimson
“Things are as they are. Looking out into the universe at night, we make no comparisons between right and wrong stars, nor between well and badly arranged constellations.” – Alan Watts
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It doesn't sound nefarious, it sounds comedic.

 

I'm about as scared as I was when China had the SARS scare.

 

Um, SARS never made the leap to human transmission (it was always avian-human, not human-human). This has. SARS was a concern because if it ever did make the leap, it'd be a very deadly virus. Not unfounded given that viruses mutate thousands of times each day. And this ones mortality rate is as high as the Spanish flu. How is that 'not high enough'? :S

Edited by Krezack
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Well we aren't exactly back in the early 1900's where people were poor and didn't have modern medicine and nutrition. We have higher standards of living and immune systems that are probably a bit more capable. Obviously it's a very significant concern but the reason why it's been fatal in Mexico is pretty apparent...

 

I'd say we're relatively safe.

Edited by theslug

There was a time when I questioned the ability for the schizoid to ever experience genuine happiness, at the very least for a prolonged segment of time. I am no closer to finding the answer, however, it has become apparent that contentment is certainly a realizable goal. I find these results to be adequate, if not pleasing. Unfortunately, connection is another subject entirely. When one has sufficiently examined the mind and their emotional constructs, connection can be easily imitated. More data must be gleaned and further collated before a sufficient judgment can be reached.

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It doesn't sound nefarious, it sounds comedic.

 

I'm about as scared as I was when China had the SARS scare.

 

Um, SARS never made the leap to human transmission (it was always avian-human, not human-human). This has. SARS was a concern because if it ever did make the leap, it'd be a very deadly virus. Not unfounded given that viruses mutate thousands of times each day. And this ones mortality rate is as high as the Spanish flu. How is that 'not high enough'? :S

 

Just tell me when it's safe to leave the basement, ok?

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Raise my business tax?!

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One billion b-balls dribbling simultaneously throughout the galaxy. One trillion b-balls being slam dunked through a hoop throughout the galaxy. I can feel every single b-ball that has ever existed at my fingertips. I can feel their collective knowledge channeling through my viens. Every jumpshot, every rebound and three-pointer, every layup, dunk, and free throw. I am there.

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And this ones mortality rate is as high as the Spanish flu. How is that 'not high enough'? :S

I was under the impression that it was a bit early to give very accurate mortality rates in humans - certainly not as a fact. They're guessing based on non-human swine flu virus figures and recent numbers. Long-term mortality rate could be way off in one direction or the other, for various reasons.

 

Anyway, what I meant is that, 5-10% of the population dying off wouldn't exactly endanger the human race. Not even close. It might endanger some cultures (most likely "poor" ones), and would certainly impact business and governments and it'd be tragic and all that - especially if most of those deaths occurred in a short couple of years or something. But a lot of us "modern" cultures would probably survive and it wouldn't take forever to adjust in whatever way we had to, It'd become just another illness to keep us home from work, albeit a more dangerous one, and a reason to pass laws about people staying home when they're sick no matter what (it's amazing how many people go to work with full-blown colds and flus, which - unless you have to work to make your $5 a day to feed your family - I think is really rude, even if it's not deadly...).

 

Precautions are one thing. But panic isn't yet anywhere near justified. Things like this pop up and then disappear for unknown reasons and have for ages. It could be that after a while we'll find that people who have had it become a lot more resistant to it (or something else), so future generations wouldn't consider it any worse than our current influenza. Could be that it'll suddenly mutate into something with a much lower transmission-success ratio, dropping deaths per year to a "tolerable/more ignorable" level. Who knows. I'm not worried yet.

 

If mortality rates are more like 50%, I might start.

Edited by LadyCrimson
“Things are as they are. Looking out into the universe at night, we make no comparisons between right and wrong stars, nor between well and badly arranged constellations.” – Alan Watts
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Swine Flu tracker

 

A lot of infections reported in New York, I wonder how long it takes until it spreads into New Jersey (one state over and where I happen to live.)

A lot of those infections are not necessarily Swine flu cases. Reporting that you have sniffles doesn't make it so. Here's what I get from Newsday:

 

Deaths: 86, all in Mexico. 22 confirmed as swine flu, 64 suspected.

 

Sickened: 1,384 in Mexico, suspected or confirmed; 20 confirmed in U.S.; 10 suspected in New Zealand; 6 confirmed in Canada; 7 suspected in Spain; 1 suspected in France; 1 suspected in Israel.

 

And here's the NYT:

 

Besides the eight New York cases, officials said they had confirmed seven in California, two in Kansas, two in Texas and one in Ohio. The virus looked identical to the one in Mexico believed to have killed 103 people
“Things are as they are. Looking out into the universe at night, we make no comparisons between right and wrong stars, nor between well and badly arranged constellations.” – Alan Watts
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Hey, what are you trying to do? Drive the news media out of business?

 

We can't have rational thought and reason here, way less profitable than drama and panic :sorcerer:

“He who joyfully marches to music in rank and file has already earned my contempt. He has been given a large brain by mistake, since for him the spinal cord would surely suffice.” - Albert Einstein
 

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Hey, what are you trying to do? Drive the news media out of business?

 

We can't have rational thought and reason here, way less profitable than drama and panic :sweat:

 

Her rational thought and reason were based off information from the news media you're accusing of 'drama and panic.'

 

On the other hand, the maps in the original post.. :sorcerer:

 

Anyway, what I meant is that, 5-10% of the population dying off wouldn't exactly endanger the human race.

 

...

 

Could be that it'll suddenly mutate into something with a much lower transmission-success ratio, dropping deaths per year to a "tolerable/more ignorable" level. Who knows. I'm not worried yet.

 

If mortality rates are more like 50%, I might start.

 

Even mortality rates of 50% wouldn't endanger the human race. There would be 3.5 billion people left.

 

On the other hand, if there was a disease that wiped out 10% of the human race, that most certainly would be 'worrisome.'

Edited by Maria Caliban

"When is this out. I can't wait to play it so I can talk at length about how bad it is." - Gorgon.

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[Her rational thought and reason were based off information from the news media you're accusing of 'drama and panic.'

 

On the other hand, the maps in the original post.. :sorcerer:

Actually, my rational thought and reason for not being worried are my own. The guy in the last news quote just gave a good example I liked. ;)

 

The other news info/links are mostly to make a point that reading a headline, then doing a Google for "swine flu", then assuming what you read about "swine flu" on wiki/google etc. + what the headlines say = oh noes! is not rational. Not to mention, can contribute to unnecessary panic/misinformation. Try Twittering swine flu and see all the ridiculous posts... hah.

 

CDC and such have to take precautions, and they have to tell people about said precautions ... then the news blows it all out proportion by tossing out scary figures that may not have anything to do with the eventual science(?) of a current situation. I hate the news (edit: even when I know it's a good tool, as well).

2nd edit: And now back to your usual humorous panic and stuff! :sweat:

Edited by LadyCrimson
“Things are as they are. Looking out into the universe at night, we make no comparisons between right and wrong stars, nor between well and badly arranged constellations.” – Alan Watts
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Mom just called me at work, apparently it was one of the first items on the prime time news here in NZ. Which is fair enough, given that a few students have possibly brought the flu to the country.

 

There is cause for worry, certainly, and it doesn't hurt to be careful (including irrational fears of pork, probably)... but as LC says it's not a huge outbreak yet.

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