Ukraine Conflict - In the grim darkness of the near future, there is only war!

[Malcador]

https://www.reuters.com/graphics/UKRAINE-CRISIS/NORTHKOREA-RUSSIA/lgvdxqjwbvo/

An annoyingly presented article, at least to me, on DPRK support for Russia

If anyone still cares about this war, considering the staleness of this thread  

[Gorth]

9 minutes ago, Malcador said:

https://www.reuters.com/graphics/UKRAINE-CRISIS/NORTHKOREA-RUSSIA/lgvdxqjwbvo/

An annoyingly presented article, at least to me, on DPRK support for Russia

If anyone still cares about this war, considering the staleness of this thread  

Just waiting for Trump to declare war on Ukraine so US troops can attempt to seize the  rare earth deposits 

[Malcador]

6 minutes ago, Gorth said:

Just waiting for Trump to declare war on Ukraine so US troops can attempt to seize the  rare earth deposits 

Well, wouldn't mind seeing US troops getting blown in half by drones.

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

1 hour ago, Malcador said:

If anyone still cares about this war, considering the staleness of this thread

I thought it ended on January 20 2025

[Malcador]

3 hours ago, PK htiw klaw eriF said:

I thought it ended on January 20 2025

Just got rebranded as "Biden's War", I think

[Zoraptor]

No kidding about that being an annoying article. Somebody putting their creative design degree to too much use. 'Ukraine/ western sources say' doing an awful lot of heavy lifting in it too.

(Not much doubt about the supply; but the number of Korean troops is completely unsupported. Indeed, the Ukrainians trumpeted capturing 2 out of 150 Chinese nationals, yet only managed 2/15000 Koreans despite the 'thousands' of casualties? That's some Ghost of Kursk like numbers. In the end the absolute lack of any sort of actual critical thinking makes them just another Nigerien Yellowcake type intelligence laundering)

6 hours ago, Gorth said:

Just waiting for Trump to declare war on Ukraine so US troops can attempt to seize the  rare earth deposits 

Might as well declare war on Narnia to get theirs, it would cost less and they have nearly the same amount of rare earth deposits.

[Malcador]

https://kyivindependent.com/denmark-to-send-unarmed-soldiers-to-ukraine-for-drone-warfare-training/

Bit of a statement, very timid at least, sending soldiers into Ukraine to be trained.  Not like the Ukrainian forces training them going to Poland would hamper the effort as they're hanging out in the western part of the country anyway.

[Malcador]

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c20x5xn1g92o

Pretty crude as a negotiation tactic.  Unless, they really just want to shrug their shoulders and give up 

[pmp10]

Trump seems to still be pushing that mineral deal so it seems unlikely.
Unless he can get a political 'win' somewhere else. 

[Zoraptor]

Trump (supporters) would definitely take no minerals deal but also no more 'free' weapons/ money as a win. He can always say he's going to get the 300bn 'repaid' by other means like, haha, tariffs.

At this point the threat is likely false, but pushing for a ceasefire when neither side really wants one is a losing strategy in the medium term and gets more so the longer it goes on. Throwing up your hands and saying that it simply can't be done (now) then becomes a valid bail out option.

[Malcador]

https://www.axios.com/2025/04/22/trump-russia-ukraine-peace-plan-crimea-donbas

Ukraine seemingly unhappy with thoughts and prayers 

[Malcador]

https://www.axios.com/2025/04/22/trump-russia-ukraine-peace-plan-crimea-donbas

Ukraine seemingly unhappy with thoughts and prayers 

[pmp10]

So Russia effectively admits strategic defeat, allows Ukraine to join EU, ignores NATO troops stationed there and even allows US control of Zaporizhzhia's NPP.

All because Ukraine admits it won't join NATO and US accepts that Crimea is in Russian control?
Bribing Russians with what they already have.
A classic of diplomacy.

[rjshae]

On 4/16/2025 at 7:50 AM, PK htiw klaw eriF said:

I thought it ended on January 20 2025

DJT said it would end within 24 hours, so technically it ended on Jan. 21st.

[Zoraptor]

1 hour ago, pmp10 said:

So Russia effectively admits strategic defeat, allows Ukraine to join EU, ignores NATO troops stationed there and even allows US control of Zaporizhzhia's NPP.

All because Ukraine admits it won't join NATO and US accepts that Crimea is in Russian control?

Ukraine is never going to agree anyway, so it's irrelevant. Zelensky would be lined up against a wall and shot by the red and black flag waving Lion Rampant badged pagan iconography enthusiasts for signing over Crimea, and he knows it.

Russia is fine with Ukraine joining the EU for the same general reason- no real chance of it actually happening. You only have to look at the reaction of farmers to the very limited amounts of Ukrainian agriculture that was let in, during an actual factual crisis as well, to see why. Joining the EU was never a red line, certainly not in the same way joining NATO was.

Zelensky's attitude to Trump certainly isn't helping either. Been a bit of a pattern for Ukraine in general (the completely avoidable diplomatic faux pas have been... not insignificant) but he doesn't seem to know how to handle someone who doesn't fawn over him. Just massage Trump's ego ffs, it might be embarrassing but it's in your country's best interests and yours too really.

[Malcador]

Not sure it's Zelensky only liking suck ups like Trump, I think. They overreact to slights real or otherwise (hilariously sometimes as in the case of Podoliak and Louis Vuitton).  Think someone said they have no proper experienced diplomat which is beyond lazy at this point, think they could borrow someone from Canada or something.

Definitely should just kiss Trump's ass, although it'll work against his bravado rhetoric about wanting 1991 borders, etc 

 

[Zoraptor]

I really don't know if it's the lack of experience or a deliberate strategy of some kind. It's been too consistent. Foreign policy is always a distant second to domestic politics/ policy and it seems that Zelensky thinks the... unique approach taken plays well at home or he'd try something different, surely. And he's been repeatedly advised how to best handle Trump but seems to have consistently ignored the advice. That ain't on Kubela or Podoliak.

You don't need to be the reincarnation of Metternich or Talleyrand to get along with Trump- you just need to be able to fake a smile and mouth platitudes- or for a non Zelensky issue, realise that being described as 'low intellectual potential' is going to annoy Indians and Chinese completely pointlessly. Why pick a fight with Poland over Bandera? You know that's going to be a loser in every respect, except domestically, with a very vocal group.

In the end I'm not sure that the constant acritical hero worship and feting from other western leaders is doing Zelensky (and Ukraine) any favours either.

[pmp10]

7 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

Ukraine is never going to agree anyway, so it's irrelevant. Zelensky would be lined up against a wall and shot by the red and black flag waving Lion Rampant badged pagan iconography enthusiasts for signing over Crimea, and he knows it.

Zelensky dosen't need to give up on Crimea just as Putin won't officially drop claims to Kherson.

I assume it's the US recognition that's being offered in this case.

[BruceVC]

11 hours ago, Malcador said:

https://www.axios.com/2025/04/22/trump-russia-ukraine-peace-plan-crimea-donbas

Ukraine seemingly unhappy with thoughts and prayers 

Im not sure why this is such a terrible peace plan 

Its exactly what has been discussed many times, Russia keeps Crimea and Donbas and Ukraine wont join NATO 

Ukraine keeps 80% of its country and can join the EU when it meets the requirements

It seems the most reasonable suggestion where both sides make compromises

 

[BruceVC]

10 hours ago, pmp10 said:

So Russia effectively admits strategic defeat, allows Ukraine to join EU, ignores NATO troops stationed there and even allows US control of Zaporizhzhia's NPP.

All because Ukraine admits it won't join NATO and US accepts that Crimea is in Russian control?
Bribing Russians with what they already have.
A classic of diplomacy.

How would Russia be admitting strategic defeat when it gets Crimea and Donbas and Ukraine wont join NATO?

 

[pmp10]

NATO troops will still station there, Ukraine will continue to be westernized.
If it is ever allowed to join EU it will be covered by defense treaty anyway.

Russia has no reason to accept this, not unless US is offering something much bigger then sanction relief. 
I wonder how certain is eastern Europe of future US presence. 
 

[Gorth]

I wonder if any territorial concessions will encourage Xi to make a grab for Taiwan. If Russia can do, China can do it too

[Gfted1]

I dont fully understand why China even wants Taiwan. I supposed the forced "reunification" would look good to them, but theres absolutely no positive economic or political reason I can think of. China can already do everything that Taiwan can do.

[Elerond]

4 hours ago, BruceVC said:

Im not sure why this is such a terrible peace plan 

Its exactly what has been discussed many times, Russia keeps Crimea and Donbas and Ukraine wont join NATO 

Ukraine keeps 80% of its country and can join the EU when it meets the requirements

It seems the most reasonable suggestion where both sides make compromises

 

Really only Ukraine makes compromises

Areas that Russia gets contained 28% of Ukraine's population before the war

Areas contain almost all Ukraine's major ports

Areas contain majority of active mines in Ukraine

Areas contain majority of Ukraine's minerals counted by value

Areas contain majority of Ukraine's manufacturing 

Peace plan does not contain any actual protections for Ukraine in case Russia breaks it

Ukraine will not be able to join EU in next 100 years, because they can't meet requirements

Ukraine can't join military alliances not just NATO

Russia gets areas that they have lost for Ukraine

Russia does not give up anything

Russia gets all sanctions removed

 

I see how it is very good peace plan for Russia, for Ukraine though it is just little better than full surrender

[Elerond]

19 minutes ago, Gfted1 said:

I dont fully understand why China even wants Taiwan. I supposed the forced "reunification" would look good to them, but theres absolutely no positive economic or political reason I can think of. China can already do everything that Taiwan can do.

You can also ask why Russia wanted Ukraine.