Gaza - War does not determine who is right - only who is left

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

6 hours ago, Sarex said:

I was more thinking if the US will attack Iran. Three years ago I would have said it was far fetched, but now...

I don't know if the US will directly attack Iran, but I'd say it's a lot more likely now. Whatever the case, it's almost certain that US bombs will hit Iran via Israel, and given Israel's actions over the last year I'd be surprised if they didn't target civilians.

And not to lionize Iran or anything, but this "unprecedented" missile barage hit all military targets, which is a pretty notable difference than Israel's massacre in Gaza or invasion of Lebanon.

1 hour ago, Malcador said:

Going to hit oil facilities. Wonder how Iran will respond to that.

Iirc, Iran said it would light every oil field in the region on fire if its oil was targeted.

[BruceVC]

54 minutes ago, PK htiw klaw eriF said:

 

Iirc, Iran said it would light every oil field in the region on fire if its oil was targeted.

@Malcador

 

This is the   rational country that you think should get nukes?

It will destroy  other countries oil fields if  its oil fields are attacked because of a war its actively involved in 

 

Great candidate for nukes 

 

[Sarex]

It's jarring to see how media is trying to portray the attack as a failure when there is so much video proof where you can see 70-80% of missiles hitting their targets, ie. not being shot down.

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

53 minutes ago, Sarex said:

It's jarring to see how media is trying to portray the attack as a failure when there is so much video proof where you can see 70-80% of missiles hitting their targets, ie. not being shot down.

Even if only 1% of missiles hit, and that's a massive if, clearly the attack worked. Iran definitively showed that it could hit Israeli military installations and that the various missile defense Israel uses aren't ironclad. There is no question that if Israel continues to escalate that it can and will be targeted.

The media has been **** on Israel for quite some time, going just by tone you'd think over the past year it was over 40k Israelis that have been killed and like 1.5k Palestinians rather than the other way around. And that was before the invasion of Lebanon and Iran's missile strike, in the coming days it's going to go back and forth between Israel being a hyper-compotent juggernaut swatting away missiles like flies to Israel being a small little baby who needs big daddy Burgerstan to come in and defend it.

[BruceVC]

1 hour ago, Sarex said:

It's jarring to see how media is trying to portray the attack as a failure when there is so much video proof where you can see 70-80% of missiles hitting their targets, ie. not being shot down.

How much damage was done  to targets, do you have credible links ?

Most international media houses have active journalists reporting from within Tel Aviv and Im not sure why Sky or CNN would misreport on the real damage

So if you can provide some links reporting  on what we not being told that would be appreciated 

 

[Malcador]

2 hours ago, BruceVC said:

@Malcador

 

This is the   rational country that you think should get nukes?

It will destroy  other countries oil fields if  its oil fields are attacked because of a war its actively involved in 

 

Great candidate for nukes 

 

Well it's what they have for deterrence, threatening a headache for the US is a decent option.  If they had nuclear weapons, Israel would probably think twice about hitting them. Probably would be interested in just managing their allies in Gaza, Lebanon and not assassinating Iranians.

Takes two to dance, and there's a very long chain here.

[Zoraptor]

Guys, guys, it's about 95% likely Bruce knows perfectly well about the Samson Doctrine- he's on the Codex after all- and is just trolling about Iran being irresponsible with nukes. Even if he didn't:

"Israel must be like a mad dog, too dangerous to bother" -- Moshe Dayan, Israeli Defence Minister.

For that matter:

"Our American friends offer us money, arms, and advice. We take the money, we take the arms, and we decline the advice." -- Moshe Dayan, Israeli Defence Minister

Or indeed:

"The method of collective punishment so far has proved effective." -- Moshe Dayan, Israeli Defence Minister

plus ça change...

[uuuhhii]

start a massive war to do something usa doesn't even need to do if it didn't one sided break nuclear agreement with iran

if any agreement is worthless and any diplomacy are pointless

should it surprise anyone force is the only option

[Gorth]

19 hours ago, BruceVC said:

How much damage was done  to targets, do you have credible links ?

Most international media houses have active journalists reporting from within Tel Aviv and Im not sure why Sky or CNN would misreport on the real damage

So if you can provide some links reporting  on what we not being told that would be appreciated 

 

That’s sort of limits their trustworthiness to impacts in the city of Tel Aviv, doesn’t it? Not knowing those media, I would be surprised if they didn’t get most of their information as third hand information, handed down from the people affected to the official Israeli channels and finally the curated version to said media. I would wait 12-24 months for independent media to have fact checked the various claims. Heck, they could all be right, missile defense being no good and the Iranian missiles slaughtering cows and grasshoppers on farmland

 

edit: fixed various typos graciously brought to you by my phone

[BruceVC]

10 minutes ago, Gorth said:

That’s sort of limits their trustworthiness to impacts in the city of Tel Aviv, doesn’t it? Not knowing those media, I would be surprised if they didn’t get most of their information as third hand information, handed down from the people affected to the official Israeli channels and finally the curated version to said media. I would wait 12-24 months for independent media to have fact checked the various claims. Heck, they could all be right, midsole defense being no hood and the Iranian missiles slaughtering cows and grasshoppers on farmland

But there has been reporting on the damage done outside of Tel Aviv and within Tel Aviv, the general international  media isnt misreporting on the actual damage done

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c70w1j0l488o

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/01/world/video/iran-missile-attack-aftermath-video-israel-digvid

 

" Just north of Tel Aviv on Wednesday, close to the Mossad’s headquarters, a BBC correspondent found several badly damaged cars and a pile of earth next to a road where a missile impact was said to have caused a crater between 8m and 10m deep.

The nearby municipality of Hod HaSharon also said about 100 houses were damaged by a missile explosion and shrapnel.

And a video released by the IDF showed the head of its Home Front Command visiting a school that was hit by a missile in the Gedera area, just to the east of Ashkelon, causing extensive damage to a classroom.

The Wall Street Journal cited US officials as saying that missiles that targeted Nevatim airbase caused minor damage. However, the IDF declined to comment, saying it would not provide information that would help Iran understand the effectiveness of its attack.

Israel’s Magen David Adom ambulance service paramedics treated two people with light injuries from shrapnel in the Tel Aviv area, as well as some people with minor injuries caused by falling as they moved to shelters."

And then even Israeli media is reporting on damage done 

https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-acknowledges-some-iranian-missiles-hit-airbases-no-major-damage-caused/

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Gorth]

4 hours ago, BruceVC said:

But there has been reporting on the damage done outside of Tel Aviv and within Tel Aviv, the general international  media isnt misreporting on the actual damage done

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c70w1j0l488o

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/01/world/video/iran-missile-attack-aftermath-video-israel-digvid

 

" Just north of Tel Aviv on Wednesday, close to the Mossad’s headquarters, a BBC correspondent found several badly damaged cars and a pile of earth next to a road where a missile impact was said to have caused a crater between 8m and 10m deep.

The nearby municipality of Hod HaSharon also said about 100 houses were damaged by a missile explosion and shrapnel.

And a video released by the IDF showed the head of its Home Front Command visiting a school that was hit by a missile in the Gedera area, just to the east of Ashkelon, causing extensive damage to a classroom.

The Wall Street Journal cited US officials as saying that missiles that targeted Nevatim airbase caused minor damage. However, the IDF declined to comment, saying it would not provide information that would help Iran understand the effectiveness of its attack.

Israel’s Magen David Adom ambulance service paramedics treated two people with light injuries from shrapnel in the Tel Aviv area, as well as some people with minor injuries caused by falling as they moved to shelters."

And then even Israeli media is reporting on damage done 

https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-acknowledges-some-iranian-missiles-hit-airbases-no-major-damage-caused/

 

 

 

 

 

 

As indicated, I'm inclined to take their reporting from the Tel Aviv area at face value

[Zoraptor]

Don't know why you'd be inclined to believe them, they're all subject to the IDF Military Censor- so it's Daniel Hagari deciding what does and does not get published. Funnily enough, saying that you're subject to the Military Censor is itself subject to... the Military Censor. And if you don't like that you get Al Jazeera'ed out of the country.

To illustrate, every bit of Bruce's quote except one is "Israel says" only this or that was hit which is hit is exactly as credible as them saying they only hit Hamas targets in Gaza; which is patently false to anyone blessed with the gift of sight and IQ greater than ambient temperature (in celsius). Strangely, the same outlets that put up satellite images of damage to Iran or Russia the next day haven't done anything similar for these strikes. Though to be fair, that may be due to the satellite companies suddenly changing their policies.

Coincidentally, disaffected journalists from CNN and BBC have been complaining to Al-J about how badly they're compromised; including this about one of the more infamous bits of misinformation:
 

Quote

 

Once inside, military spokesperson Daniel Hagari claimed to have found proof Hamas was using the hospital to hide Israeli captives.

Hagari showed Robertson a document on the wall written in Arabic, which he said was a roster of Hamas members watching over the captives.

“This is a guarding list. Every terrorist has his own shift,” Hagari told Robertson.

Adam recalled the broadcast as “an embarrassing moment” for CNN.

“It wasn’t a Hamas roster at all,” he said. “It was a calendar, and written in Arabic were the days of the week. But the report that came out from Nic Robertson just swallowed up Israel’s claim.”

To make matters worse, the Israeli claim had already been debunked by Arabic speakers on social media before the CNN footage aired, and, according to multiple CNN journalists and an internal WhatsApp chat seen by Al Jazeera, a Palestinian producer alerted her colleagues, including Robertson, but was ignored. After the report aired on television, they said, another producer tried to get it corrected before it was posted online.

“One colleague saw the report and flagged to Nic, [saying,] ‘Hold on, people are saying that this is not accurate,'” Adam said. “And apparently, Nic said, ‘Are you meaning to say that Hagari is lying to us?’

“There was a chance for this to get stopped. But Nic was adamant, and it went out. He’s a very experienced correspondent. If you are trusting the Israeli government over your own colleagues, then you need to have your wrist slapped at the very least because your reporting has given cover to the Israeli operation.”

 

 

[BruceVC]

6 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

Don't know why you'd be inclined to believe them, they're all subject to the IDF Military Censor- so it's Daniel Hagari deciding what does and does not get published. Funnily enough, saying that you're subject to the Military Censor is itself subject to... the Military Censor. And if you don't like that you get Al Jazeera'ed out of the country.

To illustrate, every bit of Bruce's quote except one is "Israel says" only this or that was hit which is hit is exactly as credible as them saying they only hit Hamas targets in Gaza; which is patently false to anyone blessed with the gift of sight and IQ greater than ambient temperature (in celsius). Strangely, the same outlets that put up satellite images of damage to Iran or Russia the next day haven't done anything similar for these strikes. Though to be fair, that may be due to the satellite companies suddenly changing their policies.

Coincidentally, disaffected journalists from CNN and BBC have been complaining to Al-J about how badly they're compromised; including this about one of the more infamous bits of misinformation:
 

 

https://www.npr.org/2024/10/04/nx-s1-5140058/satellite-images-dozens-iranian-missiles-struck-near-israeli-air-base

There are several sources about the "real  damage " done for those interested, the IDF cannot control or censor this type of analysis especially when its gained through satellite images

What Im disputing is the suggestion that something like a whole building or apartment was destroyed  in Tel Aviv or another town and somehow the IDF could keep that secret 

 

 

 

 

[Zoraptor]

They can and do censor anything from bureaux operating in Israel though, like the BBC* and CNN- or Fox or Sky. They outright banned roughly 300 articles per year during 'normal' times, and their powers have been strengthened over the past year taking into account them being on wartime footing now, and the infamous 'Al Jazeera Law' of April 2024.

The article above has the byline of NPR's... Science correspondent. Who is considerably less likely to need to go to Israel any time soon than an international or politics one.

*to illsutrate, from the Grauniad

Quote

The BBC has bowed to an Israeli demand for a written apology from its deputy bureau chief in Jerusalem, Simon Wilson, who was barred from the country for failing to submit for censorship an interview with the nuclear whistleblower, Mordechai Vanunu.

(I mean, imagine the BBC apologising to Russia for not obeying their military censor... yeah. The whole thing is supine)

Edited October 6 by Zoraptor

[Malcador]

IDF deciding to attack the UNIFIL mission in Lebanon.  Wonder the hasbara for this will be.

[BruceVC]

On 10/10/2024 at 6:22 PM, Malcador said:

IDF deciding to attack the UNIFIL mission in Lebanon.  Wonder the hasbara for this will be.

Im not sure why the UN hasnt withdrawn this military mission from Lebanon, the UN has examples of failed military missions but 1701  must be there greatest failure 

One of the agreed on  mandates was disarming Hezbollah but I dont think they have ever made any attempt to enforce this?

http://unscr.com/en/resolutions/1701

"Calls for Israel and Lebanon to support a permanent ceasefire and a longterm solution based on the following principles and elements:

– full respect for the Blue Line by both parties;

- security arrangements to prevent the resumption of hostilities, including the establishment between the Blue Line and the Litani river of an area free of any  armed personnel, assets and weapons other than those of the Government of Lebanon and of UNIFIL as authorized in paragraph 11, deployed in this area; – full implementation of the relevant provisions of the Taif Accords, and of resolutions 1559 (2004) and 1680 (2006), that require the disarmament of all armed groups in Lebanon, so that, pursuant to the Lebanese cabinet decision of 27 July 2006, there will be no weapons or authority in Lebanon other than that of the Lebanese State "

Not only was this never done by UNIFIL  but Hezbollah was allowed to restock and build up its military resources

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Malcador]

And that has nowt to do with the IDF shooting them, but that is the response I see everywhere.  I always forget the IDF is a force of nature.

 

[Zoraptor]

Funny that Hasbara never quote the actual document when it comes to 1701. Quite strange. It's almost like they like quoting bits of it out of context or something. Which would be odd from people who justify torturing doctors to death and "one to the head, one to the heart" for palestinian children, you'd think they'd draw the line somewhere.

Oh, it's because the only part (almost) that is actually enforceable is the part which authorises increasing unifil's numbers to 15k.

For anyone familiar with UN resolutions the important part is almost always the first word of the clauses, since that applies to enforceability. "Invites" "Requests" etc are not enforceable. The authorisation to increase numbers however is a "Decides".

And, oddly enough, unifil's mandate isn't to disarm Hezbollah either. It's to assist the Lebanese government to do so. The Lebanese government hasn't even tried, and unifil is not authorised to act independently in the matter.

Here's an interesting paragraph though

Quote

12. Acting in support of a request from the Government of Lebanon to deploy an international force to assist it to exercise its authority throughout the territory, authorizes UNIFIL to take all necessary action in areas of deployment of its forces and as it deems within its capabilities, to ensure that its area of operations S/RES/1701 (2006) 06-465034 is not utilized for hostile activities of any kind, to resist attempts by forceful means to prevent it from discharging its duties under the mandate of the Security Council, and to protect United Nations personnel, facilities, installations and equipment, ensure the security and freedom of movement of United Nations personnel, humanitarian workers and, without prejudice to the responsibility of the Government of Lebanon, to protect civilians under imminent threat of physical violence;

el oh el. Note, no "invites" or "requests" type wording there.

Edited October 13 by Zoraptor

[BruceVC]

12 hours ago, Malcador said:

And that has nowt to do with the IDF shooting them, but that is the response I see everywhere.  I always forget the IDF is a force of nature.

 

Sure but I was pointing out the obvious failures of the UN resolution that both UNIFIL and the Lebanese military failed spectacularly to do over the last 18 years

If the  UN resolution had been implemented Hezbollah would just be a political party and they wouldnt be able to fire rockets into Israel 

And Israel wouldnt have launched another military campaign into Lebanon. A UN  agreement was reached in 2006 to end that war and that agreement should have been acted on to avoid future wars

There is no point having UN resolutions like this if you ignore something as fundamental as " that require the disarmament of all armed groups in Lebanon, so that, pursuant to the Lebanese cabinet decision of 27 July 2006, there will be no weapons or authority in Lebanon other than that of the Lebanese State "

[Elerond]

58 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

Sure but I was pointing out the obvious failures of the UN resolution that both UNIFIL and the Lebanese military failed spectacularly to do over the last 18 years

If the  UN resolution had been implemented Hezbollah would just be a political party and they wouldnt be able to fire rockets into Israel 

And Israel wouldnt have launched another military campaign into Lebanon. A UN  agreement was reached in 2006 to end that war and that agreement should have been acted on to avoid future wars

There is no point having UN resolutions like this if you ignore something as fundamental as " that require the disarmament of all armed groups in Lebanon, so that, pursuant to the Lebanese cabinet decision of 27 July 2006, there will be no weapons or authority in Lebanon other than that of the Lebanese State "

In UN report of implementation of there treaty also states Israel had broken daily one of the fundamental parts of the treaty full withdrawal of Israeli troops from Lebanon

"Israeli violations of Lebanese airspace continued almost daily with unmanned aerial vehicles, and often with fixed-wing aircraft, including fighter jets"

So it is typical situation where all the parties break the agreement constantly an UNFIL's role is to prevent escalation of hostilities.

[BruceVC]

https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-824901

 

@Gfted1

 

Here are some details around how Mossad was able to implement the pager attack on Hezbollah

Very interesting

[Malcador]

IDF might have killed Sinwar, seems like fortune more than an operation - https://www.axios.com/2024/10/17/sinwar-hamas-israel-killed-gaza

Not sure it moves the needle

[melkathi]

Honestly, if you massacre every living being, eventually you will kill someone you pretended to have been a target all along.

[Zoraptor]

One of those things you're not meant to remember: Sinwar was supposed to have all the remaining hostages around him as human shields. Strange they haven't mentioned finding any.

(He's very likely dead, but also very likely killed ages ago and not in the situation suggested. It's exactly the sort of thing you save up for a PR release when you've had a bad week of publicity)

Edited October 17 by Zoraptor

[BruceVC]

13 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

One of those things you're not meant to remember: Sinwar was supposed to have all the remaining hostages around him as human shields. Strange they haven't mentioned finding any.

(He's very likely dead, but also very likely killed ages ago and not in the situation suggested. It's exactly the sort of thing you save up for a PR release when you've had a bad week of publicity)

You think he was killed ages ago and he has been kept in a freezer so the Israelis at some stage  could declare him killed and that would somehow make any difference to global sentiment about this war 

I assume you joking , good one. You made me laugh