Gaza - War does not determine who is right - only who is left

[HoonDing]

Remember when there was big bruhaha about IDF flooding those tunnels? And after that... silence.

Sinwar was killed then, along with most of the hostages. The rest was bombed by IDF.

[bugarup]

17 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

One of those things you're not meant to remember: Sinwar was supposed to have all the remaining hostages around him as human shields. Strange they haven't mentioned finding any.

(He's very likely dead, but also very likely killed ages ago and not in the situation suggested. It's exactly the sort of thing you save up for a PR release when you've had a bad week of publicity)

I read that those liquidated pieces of sh†t had large sums of money and fake documents, possibly trying to cross into Egypt, which would be hard to do when surrounded by human shields, and read a version that its six shields were murdered some time earlier. Also, if Israel wanted some sort of spectacle of poetic justice, wouldn't it make more sense to do it closer to October 7? Either way, good riddance. 

[BruceVC]

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hamas-says-leader-yahya-sinwar-killed-2024-10-18/

Hamas has admitted he is dead and was killed in combat 

No need for the jokes around " him being killed ages ago  and kept frozen" 

This is a depressing thread and the injection of humour is appreciated but lets focus on the reality of the war 

 

 

 

 

 

[Malcador]

22 hours ago, melkathi said:

Honestly, if you massacre every living being

Who told you the IDF's ultimate plan ?

[melkathi]

37 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Who told you the IDF's ultimate plan ?

I am clever; I simply ignore every idiotic thing Mat Miller and the list guy say. All that is left is "the Plan"

[melkathi]

1 hour ago, BruceVC said:

lets focus on the reality of the war 

 

 

You have to appreciate the irony.

[Zoraptor]

I mean, it's typical Bruce, not really designed to do anything other than provoke a response. FTR, you don't need to freeze a body to preserve it anyway, and you don't need the body at all if you plan to identify it by dental records and DNA.

Guess quoting what that UN resolution actually said hit a bit of a nerve though.

5 hours ago, bugarup said:

I read that those liquidated pieces of sh†t had large sums of money and fake documents, possibly trying to cross into Egypt, which would be hard to do when surrounded by human shields, and read a version that its six shields were murdered some time earlier. Also, if Israel wanted some sort of spectacle of poetic justice, wouldn't it make more sense to do it closer to October 7? Either way, good riddance. 

Same as we read he was keeping all the hostages around him as human shields? Right? It's called propaganda*. ie Guy who clearly had multiple opportunities to flee previous was going to flee right now, for real. But, of course, we got him before he actually did it!

Not even what he actually did is enough, have to make him a coward too. I do sometimes wonder if the people who come up with this stuff think about things for even a second. Quite apart from having had Danny Hagari waving a calendar around as a 'terrorist guard roster' like a dime store Mohammed Sahed al Sahif so devaluing any official claims by Israel (let alone the plethora of 'official Hamas documents' inexplicably written in, uh, english) the idea that Sinwar should go off to the local occupation authority (ie Israel) to get an official border pass is... an interesting one.

*this happens all the time. People also said Yasser Arafat was embezzling massive amounts of money to spend on his palatial residence. Which for three+ years consisted of a single room without electricity in a demolished compound in Ramallah that he could have left at any time to go into exile to an actually palatial residence; he'd just never be able to go back to Palestine again. Made literally no sense if you knew the slightest thing about the situation, got repeated ad nauseum because it made some people feel morally justified about killing people and stealing their land)

[Malcador]

 

 

[Zoraptor]

Leaked (or 'leaked') intelligence on Israel's plans to attack Iran. Few days old and not exactly confirmed, but consensus now seems to be that it's genuine with the main question being how deliberate the leak was, and what the motivations behind it were.

[BruceVC]

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c704w7d3997o

The long awaited  Israeli response to Iran but it was a measured response   and what the US  wanted on military targets and not targeting energy or nuclear targets

 

The "war ball " is now back in Irans court  or at least until after the US election because I cant imagine Israel escalating its bombing campaigns without US support and only Trump will provide that

 

[rjshae]

1 hour ago, BruceVC said:

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c704w7d3997o

The long awaited  Israeli response to Iran but it was a measured response   and what the US  wanted on military targets and not targeting energy or nuclear targets

The "war ball " is now back in Irans court  or at least until after the US election because I cant imagine Israel escalating its bombing campaigns without US support and only Trump will provide that

Well that article doesn't actually say. I would be a little surprised that Israeli didn't use this opportunity to go after Iran's underground nuclear weapon program.

[BruceVC]

20 minutes ago, rjshae said:

Well that article doesn't actually say. I would be a little surprised that Israeli didn't use this opportunity to go after Iran's underground nuclear weapon program.

There are multiple articles about the Israeli response being targeted  and specifically not about energy and nuclear sites

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/live-blog/israel-iran-strike-retaliation-live-updates-rcna177303

• Israel confirmed that it had launched "precise strikes on military targets in Iran" early Saturday local time. The Israel Defense Forces said the strikes were in response to "months of continuous attacks" from Iran. On Oct. 1, Iran launched nearly 200 ballistic missiles at Israel.
• The initial strikes appear limited to military sites and not Iranian nuclear facilities or oil fields, sources say.

Because that would be seen  as  ramping up the escalation and then Iran feels compelled to respond but military targets are considered "acceptable "

And this was what the US was expecting Israel to do if it retaliated after the Ballistic missile attack 

 

 

[rjshae]

8 hours ago, BruceVC said:

There are multiple articles about the Israeli response being targeted  and specifically not about energy and nuclear sites

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/live-blog/israel-iran-strike-retaliation-live-updates-rcna177303

• Israel confirmed that it had launched "precise strikes on military targets in Iran" early Saturday local time. The Israel Defense Forces said the strikes were in response to "months of continuous attacks" from Iran. On Oct. 1, Iran launched nearly 200 ballistic missiles at Israel.
• The initial strikes appear limited to military sites and not Iranian nuclear facilities or oil fields, sources say.

Because that would be seen  as  ramping up the escalation and then Iran feels compelled to respond but military targets are considered "acceptable "

And this was what the US was expecting Israel to do if it retaliated after the Ballistic missile attack 

Well I suppose it has the psychological effect of implying further escallation if Iran inflicts a massive retaliation. Seriously, I'm not sure how wars ever end in that region. Maybe they don't.

[BruceVC]

30 minutes ago, rjshae said:

Well I suppose it has the psychological effect of implying further escallation if Iran inflicts a massive retaliation. Seriously, I'm not sure how wars ever end in that region. Maybe they don't.

I agree, the ME over the last 25  years has definitely been the most overall unstable and violent region on earth. The Israeli vs Palestinian conflict is just one aspect of conflict but you had the Arab Spring, Shia vs Sunni  tension and then sectarian conflicts and Islamic extremism and then the  US Iraq invasion  in 2003  added to the chaos 

But then you find stable and prosperous countries like the Gulf States and you can live and work there. Almost no crime or outcomes of poverty that you find in many countries like South Africa or many  Western countries 

But going back to the Israeli response , I think Israel  had to respond after the Ballistic attack  but not in  a way that would force Iran to respond heavily  which is why they were selective around military targets only and yes it was also psychological 

I also think  Israel is waiting for the US election outcomes. Because Netanyahu wants Trump to win because then he will be guaranteed US support around any military decision Israel takes

The Dems have lines and decisions they wont support Israel on

What did surprise me is I was always under the impression that Iran had effective anti-aircraft defenses. I always assumed Iran would be able to shootdown some aircraft if they were attacked?

 

 

 

[BruceVC]

https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-826921

There could be an end to the conflict in Lebanon, I dont think Hezbollah is the same as Hamas with the whole " to the last Palestinian", most Lebanese and the Lebanese government never wanted a war with Israel 

 

"Despite Hezbollah’s declarations throughout the war, the terrorist organization has agreed to drop its demands and is ready to withdraw beyond the Litani River, Lebanon's MTV website, which is associated with Hezbollah opponents, reported Wednesday night.

The report indicated that Hezbollah agreed to establish a demilitarized zone, with all its weapons to be moved beyond the river. It was also claimed that Hezbollah no longer insists on being directly connected to events in Gaza. 

MTV Lebanon noted that a three-day ceasefire draft is being discussed in Lebanon, and American officials are expected to present it to Israel in the coming days. It was also noted that Amos Hochstein, Biden's envoy to the region, told Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati that he sensed a change in Netanyahu's position, which gave him hope regarding the contacts. " 

 

 

[Also gorgon]

The Israeli ground offensive is also stalled. Maybe both parties are looking for a way to back out.

[Zoraptor]

I'd be skeptical of anything reported in the Israeli press, based on something claimed by a TV company run by a prominent Phalangist family. Funny thing, Hezbollah people have this really weird tendency to talk to Israeli and non Shia Lebanese media and say exactly what said media wants them to say. It's almost like they aren't actually talking to real Hezbollah people...

And for anyone wondering, yes, the Lebanese Phalange named themselves and modeled themselves after Franco's Spanish Falange, and are, literally literally, fascists who want to Make Lebanon Christian Again. Which is why they got on so well with Begin and Shamir's Israel. They were responsible- along with another former Israeli PM, Ariel Sharon, and the IDF- for the judicially proven to be genocidal Sabra and Shatila massacre, among many other atrocities. Far from alone in perpetuating atrocities of course, but theirs tended to be the largest and most memorable ones targeting civilians.

Though as with their moral compatriots Al Qaeda in Syria they prefer to be known by a different name now, so as not to offend tender western sensibilities (--> 'Kataeb').

Edited October 31 by Zoraptor

[BruceVC]

9 hours ago, Also gorgon said:

The Israeli ground offensive is also stalled. Maybe both parties are looking for a way to back out.

I think thats a  definite consideration, Israel doesnt have endless resources or public appetite for war in Lebanon without some sort of achievable goals 

If Hezbollah agrees to stop firing rockets and withdraws from the southern Lebanon region Im sure Netanyahu will take that and claim it as a " win" ...until the next time 

The US elections are nearly over and that will play a huge part in how Israel addresses Iran, I cant imagine they can fight  ongoing wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran?

 

[Malcador]

https://apnews.com/article/gaza-hospitals-israel-civilians-d066117ec80bce83657447add762b2e7

Good thing the IDF is BLUFOR.

[ShadySands]

Close to 70 percent of Gaza war fatalities children, women: UN Human Rights Office

[majestic]

So whatcha all posting this Hamas propaganda garbage for? Clearly all the death and destruction would stop if Hamas just surrendered unconditionally, and they'd all be treated super well by the IDF. Unlike the hostages.

[Malcador]

https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-hamas-war-aid-us-48cd09c1c007cacd6d7a309589490320

I am sure everyone's shocked by this.

[Zoraptor]

ICC has now issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant (and Deif, who may be dead anyway).

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

I'm sure the rules based international order will follow the rule of law and enforce those warrants.

[Zoraptor]

To be fair to them, when the formal investigation was launched a decent number of 'rules based order' countries did say they'd enforce it against Bibi/ Gallant as a matter of course, if warrants were issued- the Dutch and Italians at least off the top of my head. That does rely on them being dumb enough to go to those countries though, so it's a fairly low risk statement in terms of having to follow through. UK and Germany, well, they seem so far to be hoping the issue will just disappear so they don't have to commit. And obviously the US was never going to be exactly pleased with the indictments let alone enforce them.

There are certainly a few things which may get interesting as a result- eg those countries that have laws against weapons trade with war criminals, or if Netanyahu decides to turn up to the UNGA again next year. Not like the US would arrest him, but even with the ICC not being a UN body having a wanted war criminal address the UN General Assembly would be... interesting, if only to see how many walk out in protest vs the number doing it for Iran or similar.