Ukraine Conflict - continuing

[BruceVC]

https://apnews.com/article/moldova-elections-eu-referendum-russia-325cb2c13beb1d76565a6e2aadef971a

 

It looks  like Moldova is on track to join the EU despite Russian interference in the referendum

" With 99.41% of votes counted in the EU referendum held Sunday, the “Yes” vote stood at 50.39% and the “No” vote at 49.61%, according to the Central Electoral Commission. "

Very close  result but definitely the best outcome for the future of the country 

[HoonDing]

Moldova may join right after Türkiye

[Elerond]

20 hours ago, BruceVC said:

https://apnews.com/article/moldova-elections-eu-referendum-russia-325cb2c13beb1d76565a6e2aadef971a

 

It looks  like Moldova is on track to join the EU despite Russian interference in the referendum

" With 99.41% of votes counted in the EU referendum held Sunday, the “Yes” vote stood at 50.39% and the “No” vote at 49.61%, according to the Central Electoral Commission. "

Very close  result but definitely the best outcome for the future of the country 

Results are quite bad for Moldova's hopes to join EU.

Big sunk of 'Yes'-side's votes come from moldovians that don't live in Moldova

Majority of moldovians that live in Moldova voted 'No'.

President does not currently have people's favor.

There is high change the politician that favor Russia will win parliament election next spring. And it will anyway be uphill fight to make changes that EU requires. So Moldova will most likely fail to make them in soon enough to get their application to EU processed now when EU countries see that it could be good move against Russia. So if politicians that favor Russia win then Moldova probably will not join to EU in next 20 years. Especially when Georgia sided with Russia and will to support Ukraina is vanishing.

So at end it looks that moldovians voted against EU membership

[BruceVC]

1 hour ago, Elerond said:

Results are quite bad for Moldova's hopes to join EU.

Big sunk of 'Yes'-side's votes come from moldovians that don't live in Moldova

Majority of moldovians that live in Moldova voted 'No'.

President does not currently have people's favor.

There is high change the politician that favor Russia will win parliament election next spring. And it will anyway be uphill fight to make changes that EU requires. So Moldova will most likely fail to make them in soon enough to get their application to EU processed now when EU countries see that it could be good move against Russia. So if politicians that favor Russia win then Moldova probably will not join to EU in next 20 years. Especially when Georgia sided with Russia and will to support Ukraina is vanishing.

So at end it looks that moldovians voted against EU membership

Geez Elerond,  you sure know how to ruin someone's day ...what a depressing post 

[Malcador]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/zelenskiy-strongly-hints-ukraine-seeking-tomahawk-missiles-us-2024-10-30/

Maybe my joke in the past may turn true and they'll ask for ICBMs next.  Strange ask as they're not permitted to use ATACMS as is.  Then again, this could be something else he can use to say the West stabbed Ukraine in the back.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1851361095329493405.html

Ukrainian lack of defensive fortifications has been something consistent throughout the war, strange.  But usual doom and gloom, lately.

[Elerond]

1 hour ago, Malcador said:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/zelenskiy-strongly-hints-ukraine-seeking-tomahawk-missiles-us-2024-10-30/

Maybe my joke in the past may turn true and they'll ask for ICBMs next.  Strange ask as they're not permitted to use ATACMS as is.  Then again, this could be something else he can use to say the West stabbed Ukraine in the back.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1851361095329493405.html

Ukrainian lack of defensive fortifications has been something consistent throughout the war, strange.  But usual doom and gloom, lately.

Emil would like to see western countries to give Ukraine permission to use long ranged weaponry against targets in Russia, so his reporting may have bit more pessimistic view in order to influence western politician that listen his analyzes 

[HoonDing]

Something tells me Zelensky will be dead within the year when if Drump returns

[Malcador]

On 10/30/2024 at 3:44 PM, HoonDing said:

Something tells me Zelensky will be dead within the year when if Drump returns

He better start sucking up to Trump pronto.

[HoonDing]

There's no safe place left for Zelensky in the world tbh.

Maybe Putin will be merciful and turn him into Reek.

[majestic]

He just needs to offer Trump a better deal than Hunter Biden, and things will work out just peachy. Like y'all already forgot the time when Trump wanted to attack the Russians with US jets flying Chinese colours?

[Malcador]

2 hours ago, majestic said:

He just needs to offer Trump a better deal than Hunter Biden, and things will work out just peachy. Like y'all already forgot the time when Trump wanted to attack the Russians with US jets flying Chinese colours?

True, maybe he'll threaten Russia with giving Ukraine everything unless they sign a deal. Although what deal, ehh, who cares.

 

[Mamoulian War]

On 10/22/2024 at 4:52 PM, Elerond said:

Results are quite bad for Moldova's hopes to join EU.

Big sunk of 'Yes'-side's votes come from moldovians that don't live in Moldova

Majority of moldovians that live in Moldova voted 'No'.

President does not currently have people's favor.

There is high change the politician that favor Russia will win parliament election next spring. And it will anyway be uphill fight to make changes that EU requires. So Moldova will most likely fail to make them in soon enough to get their application to EU processed now when EU countries see that it could be good move against Russia. So if politicians that favor Russia win then Moldova probably will not join to EU in next 20 years. Especially when Georgia sided with Russia and will to support Ukraina is vanishing.

So at end it looks that moldovians voted against EU membership

 

On 10/22/2024 at 6:07 PM, BruceVC said:

Geez Elerond,  you sure know how to ruin someone's day ...what a depressing post 

Looks like Elerond’s gloom and doom has not fully fulfilled. Pro-European Maia Sandu has won presidentship again. Looking at it after yesterday, we live in a very strange world when ex-soviet satellites with strong pro Russian sentiment among population, are better at fight against the Russian influence operations than the USA and Germany

[Mamoulian War]

And it looks like UA will not need the western long range weapons anymore in close future. They just hit missile ships in Caspian Sea (1500km away) which were launching missiles against UA cities. This also made at least one airport in similar range from UA, to stop operations. 
 

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/11/6/7483198/

[HoonDing]

Biden should just go crazy at this point. Send every NATO bird in and send the Russians scurrying. Just as a final **** you to Trumputin.

[Elerond]

Peace plan sound like no plan at all. I am sure that Russia approves idea that Nato will have heavy fortification and large amount troops in their border, when idea of Ukraine possibly joining Nato lead them to attack Ukraine in first place

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/11/7/7483362/

Quote

 

All suggestions differ from Biden's approach in that they universally recommend stopping the war, cementing Russia's acquisition of nearly 20% of Ukraine's territory and forcing Ukraine to temporarily suspend its desire to join NATO.

One of the options suggested in Trump's transition office, as reported by three persons close to the recently elected president, recommends that Ukraine will pledge not to join NATO for at least 20 years. In exchange, the US will continue to supply Ukraine with armaments to deter future Russian attacks.

According to this concept, the front line would be locked in place, and both sides would agree to a demilitarised zone stretching about 1300 kilometres. It remains uncertain who will guard the territory, although one expert has stated that the peacekeeping force will not involve US troops or come from a US-funded international organisation, such as the United Nations.

Quote of Trump’s team member: "We can do training and other support but the barrel of the gun is going to be European. We are not sending American men and women to uphold peace in Ukraine. And we are not paying for it. Get the Poles, Germans, British and French to do it."

 

 

[Mamoulian War]

6 hours ago, Elerond said:

Peace plan sound like no plan at all. I am sure that Russia approves idea that Nato will have heavy fortification and large amount troops in their border, when idea of Ukraine possibly joining Nato lead them to attack Ukraine in first place

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/11/7/7483362/

 

There was never a possibility of UA joining NATO in the first place. This is just a RU propaganda scapegoat to excuse their landgrab. The common populace was so much against it (in 2013 it was less than 20%), that the UA parliament would probably never approve it, even if they talked about this option. People wanted to be neutral. Even after Crimea was annexed the support for NATO did not jump above 50%. Only after the full scale war, the NATO "popularity" has risen to 80% and risen since then to 90.

[Zoraptor]

Joining NATO was wildly popular among Ukrainian politicians, and they're the ones who really count. Whatever the popular sentiment the list of Presidents of Ukraine who opposed joining NATO since 2000 only has one name on it: Yanukovich. Kuchma, Yuchenko, (Yatsenyuk), Poroshenko and Zelensky all supported it along with pretty much all the President adjacent types like Tymoshenko.

[BruceVC]

On 11/6/2024 at 3:59 PM, Mamoulian War said:

 

Looks like Elerond’s gloom and doom has not fully fulfilled. Pro-European Maia Sandu has won presidentship again. Looking at it after yesterday, we live in a very strange world when ex-soviet satellites with strong pro Russian sentiment among population, are better at fight against the Russian influence operations than the USA and Germany

I dont think its that unexpected , ask most countries  who were part of the USSR  who they want to align with and the majority of them will want to join the EU\West as opposed to the Russian block 

And Putin knows this which is why he cant ever give people the choice in a free and fair way. He can only ensure Russian alignment by invading countries or supporting a pro-Russian autocracy

But he cant risk giving citizens a choice 

 

 

[kanisatha]

Well, also, today, NATO membership is not all that it is cracked up to be. Personally, I would not place my country's survival entirely within the basket of NATO coming to its rescue. I actually can envision Article 5 being invoked and NATO nevetheless doing nothing/very little to help a member state that's the victim of naked aggression. Ukraine is better off settling for a Germany/Korea-style border separating itself from Russia-occupied Ukraine (and yes, the whole world must continue to see it as occupation and never conceed to Russia any legitimacy for Russia's actions since 2014), and then enter into binding bilateral defence treaties with multiple strong Western allies who keep Ukraine well-supplied with advanced Western weapons and training.

[Malcador]

https://www.axios.com/2024/11/08/musk-trump-zelensky-ukraine-call

Real odd to have Musk there.

But good news for Ukraine

https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/08/politics/biden-administration-american-military-contractors-deploy-ukraine/index.html

[BruceVC]

11 hours ago, kanisatha said:

Well, also, today, NATO membership is not all that it is cracked up to be. Personally, I would not place my country's survival entirely within the basket of NATO coming to its rescue. I actually can envision Article 5 being invoked and NATO nevetheless doing nothing/very little to help a member state that's the victim of naked aggression. Ukraine is better off settling for a Germany/Korea-style border separating itself from Russia-occupied Ukraine (and yes, the whole world must continue to see it as occupation and never conceed to Russia any legitimacy for Russia's actions since 2014), and then enter into binding bilateral defence treaties with multiple strong Western allies who keep Ukraine well-supplied with advanced Western weapons and training.

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine   NATO has become more relevant since the end of the Cold War  and its membership has grown

You cant really judge NATO on "  would Article 5 be invoked " because it hasnt been tested? 

But we can judge NATO on developments like its funding models  because that shows  necessary commitment from its members and this was always lacking until Russia's  warmongering became undeniable after the invasion

https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis/military-balance/2024/07/nato-defence-spending-a-bumper-year/#:~:text=Overall%2C total NATO spending increased,growth of 9% in 2023.

" NATO defence expenditure has surged in 2024, with 19 of the 32 Alliance members implementing double-digit growth in real terms to their military budgets. Increases by European members continue to be driven by the threat posed by Russia’s war in Ukraine, in addition to the ambition set in the Wales Summit Declaration in 2014 to spend at least 2% of gross domestic product on defence within a decade. Progress towards the 2% benchmark has been notable, particularly since 2022. According to the latest military-expenditure data released by NATO, 23 members will reach or exceed the 2% of GDP target this year, compared to seven in 2022 and just three in 2014. The data also finds that aggregate spending for the Alliance now exceeds the target level as a proportion of total GDP.

The level of growth implemented by countries to reach the target level in 2024 was significant. Overall, total NATO spending increased by 11% in 2024, compared to 3% in 2023. Growth was even stronger among NATO’s European members, who increased their combined military spending by 19% in real terms in 2024, following not-insignificant growth of 9% in 2023. This is remarkable given that the annual average for 2014–22 was just 3%, and is a stark indication of the deterioration in the strategic environment in Europe. This growth spurt, however, will likely skew underlying trends and, as ever, raises concerns that when funding increases too rapidly, it may not be spent effectively. "

Out of all the 3 N lies to justify the invasion of Ukraine the one that has become the biggest Russian  failure is the NATO one 

NATO has not only grown its membership and is more on the Russian border than ever before but its own internal funding and relevance has increased 

 NATO was never ever going to invade Russia anyway, nukes prevent that and you wont get consensus for this type of military campaign

 Article 5 is a big part of countries joining NATO nowadays ironically because of  the Russian invasion but  hopefully that is never tested 

 

 

 

 

[kanisatha]

On 11/8/2024 at 11:55 PM, BruceVC said:

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine   NATO has become more relevant since the end of the Cold War  and its membership has grown

You cant really judge NATO on "  would Article 5 be invoked " because it hasnt been tested? 

But we can judge NATO on developments like its funding models  because that shows  necessary commitment from its members and this was always lacking until Russia's  warmongering became undeniable after the invasion

https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis/military-balance/2024/07/nato-defence-spending-a-bumper-year/#:~:text=Overall%2C total NATO spending increased,growth of 9% in 2023.

" NATO defence expenditure has surged in 2024, with 19 of the 32 Alliance members implementing double-digit growth in real terms to their military budgets. Increases by European members continue to be driven by the threat posed by Russia’s war in Ukraine, in addition to the ambition set in the Wales Summit Declaration in 2014 to spend at least 2% of gross domestic product on defence within a decade. Progress towards the 2% benchmark has been notable, particularly since 2022. According to the latest military-expenditure data released by NATO, 23 members will reach or exceed the 2% of GDP target this year, compared to seven in 2022 and just three in 2014. The data also finds that aggregate spending for the Alliance now exceeds the target level as a proportion of total GDP.

The level of growth implemented by countries to reach the target level in 2024 was significant. Overall, total NATO spending increased by 11% in 2024, compared to 3% in 2023. Growth was even stronger among NATO’s European members, who increased their combined military spending by 19% in real terms in 2024, following not-insignificant growth of 9% in 2023. This is remarkable given that the annual average for 2014–22 was just 3%, and is a stark indication of the deterioration in the strategic environment in Europe. This growth spurt, however, will likely skew underlying trends and, as ever, raises concerns that when funding increases too rapidly, it may not be spent effectively. "

Out of all the 3 N lies to justify the invasion of Ukraine the one that has become the biggest Russian  failure is the NATO one 

NATO has not only grown its membership and is more on the Russian border than ever before but its own internal funding and relevance has increased 

 NATO was never ever going to invade Russia anyway, nukes prevent that and you wont get consensus for this type of military campaign

 Article 5 is a big part of countries joining NATO nowadays ironically because of  the Russian invasion but  hopefully that is never tested

Sorry, @BruceVC, but I disagree. I'm very strongly convinced that even if Article 5 were activated (and even that would happen only after weeks of ridiculous "discussions," thereby making any aid too late anyway), many NATO states will simply ignore their Article 5 obligations and choose to do nothing. Obviously countries like Hungary, Slovakia, and Turkey, and now also Bulgaria, but very possibly even states like Germany and Spain, and of course Trump's USA. The fact that NATO has become bigger, but still holds to unanimous decision-making, means NATO cannot and will not act in a timely manner.

[pmp10]

But Article 5 comes with no obligation.
Even if it did, you have no way to punish states refusing to fulfil them. 

For all we know, without US NATO might turn out to be all about 'Thoughts and prayers'.

[Lexx]

That's probably what Putin speculates on, and which is why a few years back we got all those pushes by Trump to get the US out of NATO.

[Zoraptor]

6 hours ago, pmp10 said:

But Article 5 comes with no obligation.

It doesn't come with a prescriptive description of what the obligations actually are, practically, but the obligation to collective defence is explicit in article 5, to whit: "The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all.."

Exactly what the response would be is non prescriptive for good reason; an armed attack could consist of anything from an errant rocket from Ukraine hitting Poland to most of the North Atlantic going more radioactive than an Imagine Dragons number 1 and anything in between.

As with most such treaties the obligations, implications and wording are open to extremely liberal interpretation and have been multiple times previous. The whole of Article 1 will sound like a bad joke to much of the world given the west's collective record when it comes to peaceful solutions and not threatening military action for example.

Edited November 11 by Zoraptor