Ukraine Conflict - continuing

[Gfted1]

^Their DNA is found in some Homo sapiens so maybe we bred them out of existence?

[BruceVC]

3 hours ago, kanisatha said:

I think people far too often forget or overlook the nuclear dimension in these discussions, simply closing their minds to the possibility of nuclear weapons use because it is just too terrifying for their minds to contemplate and thereby assuming that surely no one would actually use them. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news to those people, but I very strongly believe the actual use of nukes will be part of a global war in the coming years.

The reality of  nuclear  war would be so terrible its almost  impossible to contemplate but lets  say for argument sake it occurred, it would be between the US and Russia\China but most   likely Russia vs USA 

But heres  why I think  its  very unlikely, 5% chance  at most  

I use  history as  an assessment of these  types of concerns and if there  wasnt nuclear war between  the  US vs USSR  in the Cold War why would it  happen now?  Ideological tension   and real events  like the Cuban Missile Crisis  created a  reality for  decades  where  people on  both sides  really hated and resented each other and wanted  to go  war ,  Communism  was  an absolute scourge and blight on the world but there was  no WW3  but rather  proxy wars and spycraft and this was  primarily because of the concern of  MAD  (mutually assured destruction )  because of  nukes that would have been inevitably used if the likes  of the US went  to war  with the   USSR 

So the deterrent of  nukes prevented another WW because the consequence was  too terrible to risk, Oppenheimer was ironically wrong  when he grappled with guilt when he said "  I am become death , the destroyer  of worlds  "  

His important contribution in the Manhattan Project     saved millions of lives that would have been lost  in WW3 

So  if nukes  were never used  during the  years of  real  ideological hatred  in the Cold War  why would  they  be used  now? Our  geopolitical  differences  are generally much less  than they were  in the Cold War?

 

 

 

 

 

[Mamoulian War]

1 hour ago, BruceVC said:

I use  history as  an assessment of these  types of concerns and if there  wasnt nuclear war between  the  US vs USSR  in the Cold War why would it  happen now? 

 

Because in comparison to all previous Soviet leaders, Putin, after spending more than year, completely isolated alone in his bunker afraid of COVID-19, is paranoid and completely out of touch with reality Not to mention his current lovey dovey with Kim, who considers himself God, that could press the button faster than him.

[Malcador]

Who's nuking who and over what?

[BruceVC]

9 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

Because in comparison to all previous Soviet leaders, Putin, after spending more than year, completely isolated alone in his bunker afraid of COVID-19, is paranoid and completely out of touch with reality Not to mention his current lovey dovey with Kim, who considers himself God, that could press the button faster than him.

Yes, any  delusional leader is a risk but I dont think Putin is like that. He is a warmonger, a nationalist , a liar and he is paranoid but I dont think he wants to see Russia wiped out in the obvious counter attack if Russia used nukes on the USA. I dont think Putin  is suicidal, he wants to survive if you think about the virus and how terrified he was about contacting Corona 

Any world leader that went to those lengths to avoid getting the virus clearly wants to survive

 

And Kim is definitely more delusional than  Putin but he also has objectives for NK he wants to achieve and he uses threats of nukes more for brinkmanship 

[Sarex]

7 hours ago, Malcador said:

Who's nuking who and over what?

UK is nuking Serbia, just because.

[Malcador]

More likely Israel will nuke Iran

[kanisatha]

19 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

Because in comparison to all previous Soviet leaders, Putin, after spending more than year, completely isolated alone in his bunker afraid of COVID-19, is paranoid and completely out of touch with reality Not to mention his current lovey dovey with Kim, who considers himself God, that could press the button faster than him.

Also because the Soviet Union actually had something to lose.

Furthermore, believe it or not, the resentment that some out there in the world feel towards the West is FAR more intense than any silly ideology. It is personal. The Russians feel this the strongest, and are building an axis with those others who also feel it very strongly, specifically Iran and North Korea (the Chinese also feel it, but not as strongly, hence their reluctance to go all in with the Russians and to only use the Russians for their own ends). The only goal in life for these 'resenters' is to bring the hated West's standard of living down to their level. And increasingly, they are even open to the idea that using nukes to achieve this goal is "reasonable," especially because they are becomming convinved the West (both Western leaders and publics) don't have the guts to pull the trigger on nuclear retaliation.

[Zoraptor]

I wish the guy who insisted Russia wouldn't use nukes even if the US nuked Moscow was still around. Or the guy who insisted that Russia's nukes wouldn't work, even if they tried to use them. Would make for an interesting argument.

[Malcador]

Seeing OSINT posts on Russians threatening to capture New York is a trip at first glance.

[Sarex]

I guess they were right, fads do go in circles.

[Mamoulian War]

A latest state of Russian economy from the quote of the head of Russian Central Bank, or whatever is the equivalent name of Russian FED

 

 

[Mamoulian War]

@xzar_monty

Would you be willing to elaborate a little bit on this? Is this a serious newspaper? And how real/known/serious are these guys around Finland?
 

https://www.iltalehti.fi/ulkomaat/a/0f398e0d-0324-4a15-b64d-96aa1d0b9087

 

[Elerond]

45 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

@xzar_monty

Would you be willing to elaborate a little bit on this? Is this a serious newspaper? And how real/known/serious are these guys around Finland?
 

https://www.iltalehti.fi/ulkomaat/a/0f398e0d-0324-4a15-b64d-96aa1d0b9087

 

It tells about Russians that fight against Russia, it focus on group called Karelian team, which claims that they are willing to fight to separate eastern Karelia from Russia, which is interesting for Finland ad Russia (Soviet Union) conquered Eastern Karelia from Finland in WW2.

Writer of the article tells that there are little knowledge about Karelian team and some say iy is Russian psyop in order to find disloyal people, then article moves to interview of man they call Dante who says they are part of Karelia team. In interview Dante tells that Karelia team is currently doing operations in Belgrod area for Ukraine. He says that they do operations mainly during nights and they are lightly armed and fast moving with good night vision gear. He then tells Karelia team wants independence for Eastern Karelia and team welcoms all finno ugric and nordic russsians that want freedom from Russia. There are couple pictures of Dante which show his gear and him holding Eastern Karelian flag from time when it was part of Finland.

 

[Malcador]

https://www.euronews.com/2024/07/08/poland-and-ukraine-sign-unprecedented-military-agreement

To be seen what "in the direction of Poland" entails fully. 

[xzar_monty]

20 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

@xzar_monty

Would you be willing to elaborate a little bit on this? Is this a serious newspaper? And how real/known/serious are these guys around Finland?

The paper is unserious enough for me not to click on any of their links, sorry.

As for nukes, I think Richard Dawkins made a good point in saying that it's like one of those unlikely ocean crossings by animals: very improbable at any given moment, but given enough time, the odds will increase dramatically, and it only needs to happen once. (Which is not to say that nukes would destroy life on the planet, as they almost certainly wouldn't, even if they all went off, but obviously even a small-scale nuclear war would be Very Bad News.)

[Malcador]

https://kyivindependent.com/with-krynky-lost-what-did-the-perilous-operation-accomplish/

Seems like a waste all around for both sides.

[Zoraptor]

The Russians can probably afford the wastage more though.

One of those things which you could kind of see why they did it at the time- PR for the counteroffensive's failure, making sure Russian troops were tied down etc- but went on far too long and was far too static. Just sitting there having to supply everything across the Dnieper via boat... it's just dumb. You could probably achieve much the same with cross river hit and run raids, with a much less vulnerable/ static supply line. You can justify Anzio2 if you have the Allies resources and your enemy has 1944 Germany's, not so much if it's the reverse.

Not cutting losses when needed has been Ukraine's #1 problem. If you have to withdraw you're going to take a morale/ PR hit, but it's less if you don't look like you've been throwing soldiers' lives away pointlessly, and you still have a bunch of soldiers alive that you can use more productively elsewhere.

As always depends a lot on actual casualties and whether KI's translation is accurate for location. If the losses actually are >1000 dead and missing only in the village then it was an unmitigated disaster for Ukraine given they also claim Russian losses as 'only' ~1200. It seems unlikely less than 200 Ukrainians died in the river or in staging areas or in lancet/ UPMK/ artillery strikes on the west bank, and a 1:1 ratio is utterly unsustainable.

(also has to be said belatedly, the UkrMoD still claims to be fighting on the east bank as of today and repelled five assaults. Presumably that's Krynky since they don't hold anywhere else on the east bank)

Edited July 19 by Zoraptor

[Mamoulian War]

It is brewing in Dagestan again. Locals are starting to attack Dagestani “collaborators, who served in Russian Army in Ukraine.

 

[kanisatha]

Zelenskyy's call with Trump:

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/07/19/trump-zelenskyy-ukraine-call-00169905

[Malcador]

8 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

It is brewing in Dagestan again. Locals are starting to attack Dagestani “collaborators, who served in Russian Army in Ukraine.

 

Did things ever stop in Dagestan ?

[Mamoulian War]

5 hours ago, Malcador said:

Did things ever stop in Dagestan ?

There was pretty quiet for a long time. The noticeable “brewing” started when HAMAS attacked Israel, and something is happening there now and then.

 

In other news, Russia is most likely preparing Special Military Operation in Georgia as well.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/07/21/7466741/

 

[Mamoulian War]

Russia is also threatening Armenia, for their desire to move closer to the “West”.

in other news UA soldiers of 31st Brigade escaped dangerous encirclement in Doneck Oblast in full force.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/07/25/7467405/

 

and Guardian interview with General Syrskyi

https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jul/24/i-know-we-will-win-and-how-ukraines-top-general-on-turning-the-tables-against-russia

 

[Mamoulian War]

Touareg rebels in Mali have ambushed convoy with Russian Wagner terrorists in the northern province bordering Algeria. More than dozen casualties has been reported, including of the owner of the Grey Zone propaganda channel. Later the Touaregs has been spreading photos of them celebrating holding Ukrainian flag.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/07/29/7467948/

 

EDIT: Touareg rebels also promised to hand out the captured Russians to Ukraine. It is said, that Among them, there is also a guy, who commanded campaign against Soledar, before Wagner mutiny. Although It is not known yet, if he actually survived the ambush.

[HoonDing]

Pretty wild seeing Ukraine openly admitting to supporting terrorists rebels just to kill Russians.